金老虎：川普岂是池中物，一加关税便化龙 沉浸太长时间，内心总是憋着一种气，路走太多了，总是去用经验去判断认定一件事情，高山流水觅知 音，低谷徘徊知真心，你总是做梦去想象怎么做好一段行情，规划每天盈利的计划，但是现实总是盈利 跑的快，亏损扛的时间长，迷茫的思维是循规蹈矩的磨盘，反复去做一件事情不去反思和思考，隔阂还 有差距会成为一个人难以逾越的城墙； 1：通胀担忧：尽管 5 月 21 日路透调查显示美国 2025 年 CPI 预期下调至 3.1%，但仍高于美联储 2% 的目标。市场对长期通胀压力的担忧促使市场将黄金作为抗通胀资产配置，尤其是在关税政策可能推高 物价的背景下； 黄金思路回顾及下周策略预测 本周金价整体走了连阳攀升的上升形态，从3202-3365；一周的时间也是波动了163美金，想当于每天平 均波动差不多33美金；本周金价这么大的波动，主要原因还是以下几点： 1：穆迪下调美国信用评级：5 月 19 日，国际评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从 AAA 下调至 AA1， 这一事件直接冲击市场信心。评级下调反映出对美国债务和赤字问题的担忧，导致市场风险偏好下降， 转而寻求黄金作为避险资产。当日黄金价格因避险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry, particularly the baijiu sector, has emerged as a "safe haven" for capital amidst global trade tensions and market volatility, demonstrating resilience and strong performance compared to other sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The baijiu sector benefits from rigid consumer demand, with consumption patterns less affected by economic cycles, making it a stable choice even during downturns [3]. - High-end baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye maintain market scarcity through pricing strategies and limited supply, enhancing their anti-cyclical capabilities [3]. - The rise of the mass-market liquor segment, characterized by high cost-performance ratios, attracts consumers from lower-tier markets, driving new growth [3]. Group 2: Institutional Support and Investment Trends - The baijiu sector is favored by institutional investors, with over 3,000 funds holding baijiu stocks, indicating a significant "institutional clustering" effect [4]. - The financial performance of baijiu companies, such as Moutai's gross margin exceeding 90%, positions them as "quasi-bond assets," attracting risk-averse capital [4]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - Recent policy support and structural adjustments in the baijiu industry have bolstered its risk resilience, with leading companies pursuing high-end, youth-oriented, and international strategies [4]. - The concentration of market share among top companies (TOP 5 accounting for 43% of revenue) intensifies the competitive landscape, favoring larger firms and creating a "stronger stronger" dynamic [4]. Group 4: Defensive Characteristics - The baijiu sector exhibits low volatility and high certainty, making it a defensive investment choice; historical data shows baijiu indices decline less than other sectors during market downturns [4]. - The sector's performance is less correlated with macroeconomic policies, as demonstrated during the pandemic when baijiu companies adapted through e-commerce and product innovation [4]. Group 5: Cultural and Market Positioning - Baijiu is deeply rooted in Chinese culture, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye serving as cultural symbols, enhancing their market value and investment appeal [5]. - Despite the growth in international markets, baijiu's export share remains low, with 2024 exports at $970 million, accounting for only 0.71% of the global spirits market [6]. Group 6: Future Considerations - The baijiu sector's safe-haven status is supported by multiple factors, including rigid demand, institutional backing, policy support, cultural significance, and limited international exposure [6]. - However, potential risks include policy changes, valuation bubbles, and shifting consumer preferences among younger demographics, necessitating ongoing innovation for sustained growth [6][7].

今年4月初，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布"解放日"关税，引发全球金融市场动荡后，加密货币交易员 一度担心，比特币价格会跌到什么程度。 "需求暴增" 风险资产如股票和加密货币遭到抛售，比特币一度跌至接近7.4万美元，较1月20日特朗普宣誓就职时创 下的历史高点10.94万美元暴跌32%。 然而，仅仅六周后，全球最大加密货币便强势反弹并创下新高，首次突破11.1万美元。随着特朗普的贸 易战持续动荡，比特币正逐步演变为类似黄金的"避险资产"，吸引了大量寻求避风港的投资者。 "我们坚信，比特币正越来越脱离对风险资产的联动，开始表现得像一个独立、可靠的资产配置工具， 尤其是在不确定时期，"MHC Digital Group全球市场主管Edward Carroll表示。 他指出，尽管20年期美国国债拍卖不佳导致债券价格暴跌，引发市场对美国巨额赤字威胁其避险地位的 担忧，但比特币却在隔夜交易中逆势上涨。与此同时，美股下跌，美元兑多数主要货币走软。 比特币目前的走势更贴近黄金，本周金价上涨4%，至每盎司约3325美元，逼近上个月创下的历史新 高。 澳洲投资者也在前所未有地涌入加密货币市场。截止5月21日的一周内，当地比特币E ...

特朗普再度挥动关税大棒， 威胁对欧盟商品征收50%关税，此外，特朗普还点名苹果和三星，表示 对不在美国生产的手机制造商征收25%的关 税，并称 将在六月底前对苹果公司和三星征收关税。 此言论也在欧洲金融市场引发震荡，重要股指纷纷下挫。 关税担忧再起，周五美股也全线下挫， 截至收盘，道指跌0.61%，纳指跌1.00%，标普 500指数跌0.67%。 本周，道指累计跌2.47%，标普500指数跌2.61%，纳斯达克指数跌2.48%。 | A HS 港股 | 美股 全球 | 某余 | 期货 曲家 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 亚太市场收盘 | 欧洲市场收盘 | | 北美市场收盘 | | * 恒生指数 | 疆 英国富时 | | ■ 道琼斯 | | 23601.26 | 8718.27 | | 41603.07 | | +56.95 +0.24% | -20.99 -0.24% | | -256.02 -0.61% | | · 上证指数 | 德国DAX | | ■ 纳斯达克 | | 3348.37 | 23623.82 | | 18737.21 | | -31.82 -0.94% | -3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in international gold prices, driven by rising concerns over U.S. fiscal stability and escalating geopolitical tensions, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Fiscal Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from "AAA" to "AA1" due to worries over a $36 trillion debt, indicating a failure of past administrations to address large fiscal deficits and rising interest costs [3]. - The total U.S. public debt has surged from approximately $4.5 trillion in 2007 to a historical high today, with the debt-to-GDP ratio increasing from about 35% to 100% [3]. - The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose above 5%, which historically impacts borrowing rates for households and businesses, reflecting declining investor confidence in U.S. long-term assets [3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical issues, such as stalled negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and increased military actions in the Middle East, have further boosted gold prices as investors seek safety [5][8]. - The U.S. trade situation is also tense, with President Trump threatening to impose a 50% tariff on the EU, contributing to a decline in the dollar index [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring upcoming discussions in the Senate regarding the spending bill, with potential implications for U.S. debt concerns and the dollar's recovery [8]. - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates, with a potential rate cut expected in July, could further influence gold prices, especially if economic indicators show volatility [7][8]. - Short-term bullish sentiment in gold is supported by both momentum traders and long-term investors seeking to hedge against policy uncertainties, creating favorable conditions for a rebound towards historical highs [8].

金十数据5月23日讯，有分析师表示，特朗普关税风波卷土重来，引发美元抛售，加之美国国债与全球 收益率走低，亦拖累美元走势。在特朗普威胁将对苹果加征关税，随后又谈及将从6月1日起对欧盟征收 关税后，避险资产集体上涨，因在新的关税威胁下，避险需求迅速升温。分析师称，特朗普对欧盟的关 税威胁唤醒了欧元兑美元的看空者，此外，美元空头很可能在周五进一步发力。 分析师：特朗普新的关税言论及即将到来的假日引发新一轮美元抛售 ...

美国货币政策转向构成黄金牛市的第一推动力。连续降息导致美元信用锚点松动，就像地基沉降的建筑物，投资者纷纷转向黄金这类"无主权风险"资产。与 此同时，美国政府债务规模突破历史极值，财政赤字占GDP比重持续扩大，这种"寅吃卯粮"的财政模式引发长期通胀预期，为金价提供了持久燃料。值得注 意的是，上海黄金现货价格已达684.6元/克，境内外价差收窄反映全球市场联动性增强。 历史镜鉴：本轮周期的特殊性 对比2008年金融危机后的黄金走势，当前市场呈现三大差异点：一是央行购金规模创1999年以来新高，官方部门正以"静默抢筹"方式重构外汇储备结构；二 是年轻投资者通过APP定投黄金ETF，形成"蚂蚁搬山"式的需求支撑；三是期货市场未平仓合约显示，投机多头与商业空头对峙程度已达2011年历史高点水 平，市场分歧如同紧绷的弓弦。技术面显示，金价已突破2011-2020年长期整理区间的1.618倍斐波那契扩展位，这种突破往往伴随剧烈波动。 当前全球金融市场正经历复杂波动，黄金作为传统避险资产再次成为焦点。截至2025年5月23日，现货黄金交投于3300.80美元/盎司附近，尽管较前一日有 所回落，但仍处于历史高位区间。这一价格水 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin's trading price has surpassed $110,000 for the first time, currently hovering around $111,000, driven by institutional investor demand for Bitcoin ETFs and a rising interest in Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid U.S. economic policies [1] - Concerns over the increasing U.S. fiscal deficit under the Trump administration and global bond market turmoil have contributed to Bitcoin's rise as a new safe-haven asset [1][3] - Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $120,000 soon, with potential targets of $150,000 and even $500,000 before Trump's term ends in 2029 [4][16] Group 2 - Key indicators suggest a bullish trend for Bitcoin, with the Mean Deviation Detector indicating room for further price increases and the Bollinger Bands showing increased market volatility [4][10] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown signs of overbought conditions, but overall risk/reward remains attractive, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [5][11] - The current price structure and trend strength support a bullish outlook, with significant technical indicators aligning for a potential breakout [13] Group 3 - The dollar is expected to enter a bear market, leading to increased interest in Bitcoin and gold as safe-haven assets [14][15] - Major financial institutions, including Standard Chartered, predict Bitcoin prices could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with significant institutional buying activity observed [16][17] - The market is witnessing a shift towards Bitcoin as a core asset, with companies like Strategy and new ventures establishing Bitcoin reserves [17]

Group 1 - Bitcoin price recently surpassed $111,000, reaching a historical high, driven by bullish sentiment in the cryptocurrency market [1] - The Trump administration's clear support for cryptocurrencies and significant institutional investment have made Bitcoin a focal point for global investors [1] - Progress in U.S. stablecoin legislation has led to a surge in Bitcoin prices, reflecting strong market expectations for clearer regulatory policies [1] Group 2 - Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a "safe-haven asset," particularly in the context of rising deficit spending concerns amid U.S. budget negotiations [1] - In the options market, investors are betting on further Bitcoin price increases, with demand for call options at strike prices of $110,000, $120,000, and even $300,000 surging [1] - Corporate buying activity is a significant driver of Bitcoin's rise, with Michael Saylor's Strategy company accumulating over $50 billion in Bitcoin [1] Group 3 - Boyaa Interactive (00434) issued a profit warning, expecting a loss of approximately $200 million to $220 million for the three months ending March 31, 2025, compared to a profit of about $388 million in the same period last year [2] - The company's anticipated decline in revenue and reduced bank interest income due to cryptocurrency purchases contributed to the expected loss [2] - Boyaa Interactive increased its Bitcoin holdings by purchasing approximately 100 Bitcoins for about $7.95 million, with an average purchase cost of $79,495 per Bitcoin [2]

近期，中东地缘紧张局势升级、穆迪下调美国Aaa主权信用评级，避险资产情绪再度爆发，金价强势反弹，截至5月22日，现货黄金上涨至近3340美元/盎 司，续创5月9日来新高。 机构人士表示，本轮金价上涨的核心因素主要有以下几个方面： 首先，金价在经历前期调整后，市场存在超跌反弹需求。 其次，美元信用体系受挑战背景下，穆迪下调美国Aaa主权信用评级，市场对美国债务的担忧提高，直接刺激了黄金作为储备资产的避险需求。 最后，近期地缘政治冲突再起，美国情报显示以色列计划袭击伊朗核设施，加沙停火谈判中断，俄乌冲突停火协议搁浅，推动金价持续走高。 每经编辑｜彭水萍 中长期看，央行购金、去美元化、避险需求仍是金价的有利支撑，黄金行情或未完待续，回调可考虑逢低布局。 2、全球央行持续购金 美元信用体系受到挑战背景下，全球"去美元化"的趋势加快，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升。此外，全球地缘动荡频发也推动资产储备的多元化。 据世界黄金协会，2010年至今全球央行已连续15年对黄金储备净增持。 | 全球央行黄金储备量（吨） | | --- | | 美国 德国 意大利 法国 俄罗斯 中国 瑞士 印度 日本 荷兰 | | 8133.46 ...