特朗普不仅频繁批评鲍威尔，还寻求罢免美联储理事库克，并表示将对明年鲍威尔继任人选进行"宽松 政策立场测试"，要求候选人支持进一步降息。 外界曾质疑米兰担任理事前曾是总统经济顾问委员会负责人，却只采取"休假"而非辞职方式离职，可能 存在潜在利益冲突。对此，米兰回应称这些担忧"有些可笑"，并表示他只会任职至2026年1月。 "如果总统告诉我，他希望我在2026年1月后继续留任，我会立刻辞职，没有任何犹豫。"米兰说道。他 补充称，外界质疑反而促使他计划在下周一的讲话中"详细解释"自己与其他理事观点为何差异巨大，并 向公众进行全面说明。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储理事米兰周五接受采访时表示，在本周的利率决议前，他仅与美国总统特朗 普进行了简短通话，并未受到任何投票压力。 米兰透露，特朗普于周二上午致电祝贺他担任美联储理事，但双方并未讨论利率决策或经济预测相关内 容。米兰强调："我没有和他谈论我的投票立场。" 在本周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上，美联储以11比1的投票结果决定降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%。米兰是唯一的反对票，他主张一次性降息50个基点，立场明显更为宽 松。他的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan expressed his independent stance on interest rate decisions, opposing a 25 basis point cut and advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, emphasizing no external pressure from President Trump [1] Group 1 - Milan had a brief conversation with President Trump before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which was solely to offer congratulations and did not involve discussions about voting positions [1] - Milan's decision to vote against the 25 basis point cut was made independently, highlighting his commitment to the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts and decision-making process [1] - The conversation with Trump did not touch upon Milan's position in the Federal Reserve's economic projections or the "dot plot" [1]

美联储理事米兰：我是唯一支持降息50个基点的人。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports the recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and believes that similar cuts in the last two meetings of the year would be appropriate [2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed decided to lower the policy interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% following a significant drop in monthly job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [2][3] - Kashkari initially thought only two rate cuts of 25 basis points were necessary for the year but changed his view due to declining job creation [2] - Other Fed officials have differing opinions, with some suggesting only one more cut or no cuts at all, indicating a more cautious stance on inflation [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Kashkari expressed concerns about the risk of a sharp rise in unemployment, which justifies the need for the Fed to take action to support the labor market [2] - He noted that the risk of tariffs causing a significant rise in inflation is low unless there are substantial increases in tariff rates or other supply-side shocks [2] - Kashkari believes the neutral interest rate has risen to 3.1%, suggesting that the Fed's policy is not as tight as previously thought [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Kashkari indicated that if the labor market weakens more rapidly than expected, the Fed may need to cut rates more quickly [3] - He also mentioned that if the labor market proves resilient or inflation unexpectedly rises, the Fed should be prepared to pause or maintain the current policy rate [3]

Group 1 - The next Federal Reserve chair candidate, former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, opposes a 50 basis point rate cut this week, stating that the Fed's decision is correct [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points this week, a move described by Chairman Jerome Powell as a "risk management" measure aimed at boosting a weakening labor market [1] - Bullard estimates that the neutral interest rate, which neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy, is around 3.25% [1] Group 2 - A former Fed official and current dean of Purdue University's business school suggested that the Fed's large-scale purchase of mortgage-backed securities in spring 2020 may have been a mistake, as the U.S. housing market recovered after the initial COVID-19 shock [2] - The process of unwinding these securities from the Fed's balance sheet is expected to take a long time [2]

Group 1 - The annual National Day holiday is approaching, and the average daily pig iron production of Maidou's 247 plants has rebounded from a significant drop on September 3 to 240.55 million tons last week, and has now surpassed 241 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.47 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 17.19 million tons [1] - Steel demand continues to decline annually, with traditional peak seasons showing less impact, indicating a shift in focus towards high-end manufacturing and products like plates, while construction materials may become less mainstream [1] - Macro factors include the Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell adopting a more accommodative stance on inflation, temporarily lowering interest rates by 25 basis points amid external pressures [1] Group 2 - The domestic market has shown a more rational response to the anti-involution policies, with expectations for policy improvements, indicating a more stable market sentiment [2] - Recent tightening of scrap steel resources has led to stronger prices, with reduced availability of illegal tickets affecting the market, and the tax structure for scrap steel has been clarified, making it more challenging to obtain tickets [2] - Electric furnace profits have been poor over the past month and a half, with production utilization rates declining as the National Day holiday approaches, indicating a potential decrease in output [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the fourth cut since September 2024 and the first in 2025 [1][4] - The cumulative rate cuts in 2024 reached 100 basis points, injecting significant liquidity into the market, with potential for an additional 50 basis points in the next three months [4][5] - The rate cut is a response to economic pressures, including a cooling job market, weakened factory activity, and slow consumer recovery, necessitating measures to stimulate economic growth [5][6] Group 2 - The rate cut creates a favorable external environment for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially reducing the pressure on the RMB exchange rate and foreign capital outflows [5][6] - Recent signals from Chinese authorities indicate a trend towards a more accommodative monetary policy, particularly in the real estate sector, which is crucial for economic stability [6][7] - The market anticipates a reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which directly affects financing costs for businesses and consumers, especially in the housing market [6][7] Group 3 - A potential LPR cut could significantly lower mortgage rates, with expectations that rates may drop below 3%, alleviating repayment burdens for homebuyers [7][8] - For example, a 25 basis point reduction in LPR from 3.6% to 3.35% could save a borrower approximately 250 yuan per month on a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years, totaling a reduction of about 90,000 yuan in interest payments [8][11] - Lower mortgage rates are expected to boost consumer confidence and stimulate housing demand, aiding in inventory reduction and stabilizing home prices [11] Group 4 - The anticipated reduction in mortgage rates is seen as a timely boost for the real estate market, enhancing purchasing intentions and stimulating consumption [11] - The stability and growth of the real estate market are expected to positively impact related industries, such as construction and home appliances, contributing to overall economic growth [11] - However, banks must balance rate adjustments with their funding costs and market competition, while policymakers need to navigate between stimulating growth and managing financial risks [11]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 美国明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利：今年再降息两次是合适的。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

8月份就业数据弱于预期，澳元维持低迷。 由于市场目前预期澳大利亚央行9月份降息的可能性仅为20%，澳元或将重拾升势。 美元在公布每周初请失业金人数后继续上涨。 周五，澳元兑美元小幅走低，连续第三个交易日下跌。周四美国公布每周初请失业金人数后，美元获得支撑，澳元/美元汇率保持低迷。 就业报告弱于预期，澳元也承压。报告显示，澳大利亚8月份经季节性调整的就业人口变化从7月份的2.65万人（修正后为2.45万人）降至-5.4万人，而市场 普遍预期为2.2万人。与此同时，8月份失业率稳定在4.2%，符合预期。 澳元因澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）进一步降息的可能性逐渐减弱而获得支撑。市场目前预计9月份降息的可能性仅为20%，而11月份降息的可能性则为 70%，高于目标的通胀率令政策制定者保持谨慎。 据彭博社周四晚间报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他可能在周五与中国国家主席习近平的领导人会晤时进一步延长贸易休战协议，此外还将促成 TikTok美国业务的出售。 美元在初请失业金人数走软后上涨，澳元上涨 国家统计局周一公布，中国8月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.4%，预期增长3.8%，7月份增长3.7%。同期，中国规模以上工 ...

促使美联储最终转向的关键因素，是近期持续疲软的就业数据。最新统计显示，美国新增就业岗位远低于预期，导致特朗普总统直接撤换了劳工统计局局 长。多项经济指标表明，上半年美国经济增长明显放缓，就业市场面临下行风险。 分析人士认为，这次降息是美联储针对就业市场疲软采取的预防性措施，旨在防范经济衰退风险。短期来看，降息有助于提振市场信心；但长期可能加剧全 球资本流动波动，影响国际贸易格局。 美股市场对此反应分化。在降息预期和科技巨头AI投资热潮推动下，纳斯达克指数从4月的14784点一路攀升至9月的20264点。但降息决议公布后，三大股 指表现不一：道指上涨0.57%，标普微跌0.1%，纳指下跌0.33%，显示市场已提前消化降息预期。 美联储宣布降息决定，鲍威尔在特朗普施压下做出政策调整。北京时间昨晚，美联储正式宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，调整后的利率区间为 4.00?.25%。这是自2024年12月以来，美联储首次采取降息措施。 值得注意的是，在本次议息会议中，由特朗普新任命的理事米莱成为唯一反对者。米莱主张更激进的降息幅度，认为应该一次性下调50个基点，才能有效刺 激经济。 此次降息决定出人意料，因为按照传统 ...