店里一位工作人员说，当天早上客流量不错，点非咖产品的消费者明显增多。她预计下午单量提升会更显著，通常早上以咖啡类消费为主，下午则是非咖饮 品的消费高峰。 此次星巴克对星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大非咖系列产品实施降价，最高降幅达6元。调整后，多款饮品价格进入20元区间。星巴克希望以价换量，打开下 午茶市场，并适配下沉市场开店战略。 餐饮连锁专家王冬明指出，咖啡茶饮行业"内卷"已十分严重，星巴克不得不被动卷入竞争。但作为头部品牌需维持形象，因此选择先对非咖啡产品降价，这 是相对体面的价格调整方式。他预判，未来星巴克很可能会对咖啡产品进行降价。 首次产品直降 6月10日是星巴克非咖产品降价的首日，这也是星巴克进入中国25年来首次主动下调产品价格。 早上9点多，北京望京凯德MALL商场尚未正式营业，商场一层的星巴克门店已有不少顾客。工作人员在询问点单需求时，会主动提及非咖产品降价信息， 并帮助顾客累计积分、查看优惠券。 6月10日，星巴克中国门店的价签迎来历史性变化：星冰乐、冰摇茶、茶拿铁三大系列共10款产品集体降价，以大杯规格计算，消费者平均每杯能省下5元。 这是星巴克入华25年来首次直接下调产品价格，打破以往仅通过 ...

Group 1 - The rise of Sam's Club purchasing agents has become a trend, particularly in lower-tier cities, with various types of stores emerging that sell similar products to those found in Sam's Club [3][6] - These purchasing agents, referred to as "Sam's sub-agents," are capitalizing on the demand for high-quality products in lower-tier markets, where traditional Sam's Club locations are scarce [4][6] - The emergence of these stores is driven by the increasing purchasing power and demand for quality goods among consumers in third and fourth-tier cities [6][8] Group 2 - The purchasing agent model serves as a bridge for consumers in lower-tier cities to access products from high-end retail stores like Sam's Club, which are primarily located in first and second-tier cities [6][8] - The economic principle of arbitrage is at play, as purchasing agents exploit price differences between markets, purchasing products in bulk from Sam's Club and reselling them at a markup in lower-tier cities [9] - The sustainability of this purchasing agent model may be challenged if major retailers like Sam's Club expand their presence in lower-tier markets, potentially reducing the need for such services [11]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid growth of the lower-tier market in the restaurant industry, with a projected growth rate of over 8% in 2024, significantly contributing to national dining consumption increases [1] - The brand "Fish You Together" has successfully expanded its franchise model, surpassing 2,500 global franchise stores by July 2024, indicating its effective market penetration strategy [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - "Fish You Together" employs a "high efficiency + light asset" dual franchise strategy, which reduces franchise costs and enhances operational efficiency through standardized processes and digital management [3][6] - The brand has established a comprehensive supply chain system that supplies 85% of its core ingredients directly from nine major warehouses, effectively lowering food and logistics costs while ensuring consistent food quality across all locations [5][6] Group 2: Market Positioning - The brand initially focused on first-tier cities, targeting office workers and professionals, and has successfully built its reputation through affordable and nutritious offerings [6] - Following the launch of the "Thousand Cities, Ten Thousand Stores" plan in 2021, "Fish You Together" has adapted its strategies for different markets, including mini takeout stores in urban areas and local-style stores in rural markets, while also adjusting flavors for international markets [6][8] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The brand's success is attributed to its ability to understand market demands and implement innovative strategies, positioning it favorably in a competitive landscape [8]

本文来自微信公众号： 产品变量 ，作者：亨亨，头图来自：视觉中国 这可能是一个时间窗口长达10-18个月的市场机会，当然换个角度讲，这也是县城本地商家新一轮淘 换战的序章。迈过去，就有了数字营销的新入场券；迈不过去，兴许在这一波浪潮中，一些县城的门 店就要凋零消亡。 纵观TMT风云，解构产品思维，用创业者和产品经理的视角，深挖商业 以下文章来源于产品变量 ，作者亨哼 产品变量 . 我们把视角拉回机会和红利层面。上个月，我回了一趟老家小县城，这是一座只有10万人口、电子 支付普及、但一半电影票仍通过前台售出的山西北部小县城。我表姐夫找到我，想让我帮他在抖音团 购，上架他新开的台球社。 无论是哪种业态，对于市场体量的判断，都是第一位的。 首先，在下沉市场这个场域，抖音本地生活的渗透，可能比我们想象中要更大。 我检索了一下，在抖音的搜索结果里，县城只有2家台球厅设置了抖音团购，销量400+。而表姐夫新 开的台球社，在没发布短视频导流的情况下，上线当天，就售出2单。 我意识到，无论是在市场体量维度，还是在竞争维度，抖音本地生活都给县城商家带来了极大的机 会。 根据QuestMobile和开源证券的数据，抖音的月活跃用 ...

我们把视角拉回机会和红利层面。上个月，我回了一趟老家小县城，这是一座只有10万人口、电子支付普及、但一半电影票仍通过前台售出的山西北部小 县城。我表姐夫找到我，想让我帮他在抖音团购，上架他新开的台球社。 我检索了一下，在抖音的搜索结果里，县城只有2家台球厅设置了抖音团购，销量400+。而表姐夫新开的台球社，在没发布短视频导流的情况下，上线当 天，就售出2单。 我意识到，无论是在市场体量维度，还是在竞争维度，抖音本地生活都给县城商家带来了极大的机会。 这可能是一个时间窗口长达10-18个月的市场机会，当然换个角度讲，这也是县城本地商家新一轮淘换战的序章。迈过去，就有了数字营销的新入场券； 迈不过去，兴许在这一波浪潮中，一些县城的门店就要凋零消亡。 根据QuestMobile和开源证券的数据，抖音的月活跃用户已经高达10.01亿，其中，三线及以下城市用户，占比为54.7%，这意味着，对于县城的本地生活 商家来说，有一大片巨大的市场红利等待挖掘。而且最关键的是，由于市场发展的滞后性和县城经济本身的特性，对于走在数字营销前列的商家来说，竞 争的烈度也并不大，能够比较容易脱颖而出。 一、庞大的市场体量与未被充分开发的本 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 古茗深耕现制茶饮十余年，从浙江走向全国。截至24年底，公司在全国17个省份覆盖超过200个城市，共 有9914家门店，主要分布于二线、三线及更低线城市。古茗是中国最大的大众现制茶饮店品牌，亦是全价 格带下中国第二大现制茶饮店品牌。2023年古茗平均季度复购率高达53%，门店经营利润率约20%，均领 先行业。 行业下沉市场空间大，供应链打造核心竞争力 根据灼识咨询数据，按GMV统计，2024年中国现制饮品行业拥有超过6000亿元的市场规模，其中现制茶 饮行业规模最大（超过3000亿元），现制咖啡行业增速较快（24-28年CAGR预计为18.5%）。按城市线级 划分来看，低线市场具有更大的增长潜力，预计三线及以下城市24-28年CAGR均超过20%。按价格带划分 来看，大众价格带产品增长势头最好，预计24-28年CAGR为20.8%。从企业各项能力看，供应链为最核心 的竞争力。 供应链优势和独特渠道策略，公司快速成长为行业第二大品牌 茶饮市场竞争激烈，古茗避开一二线城市的激烈竞争，将目光投向三线及以下城市、乡镇城郊和县域市 场。其强大的加盟体系成为下沉的关键动力，加盟商较 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing development and expansion of the "New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside" initiative, highlighting its increasing participation, diverse vehicle offerings, and the importance of policy support in stimulating rural markets for electric vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Participation and Vehicle Offerings - The 2023 initiative saw participation from 39 brands and 52 models, with projections for 2025 indicating 33 mainstream brands and 124 models [3]. - The price range of participating models has expanded significantly, covering 50,000 to 500,000 yuan, with a variety of vehicle types including sedans, SUVs, pickups, and MPVs [3][4]. - Notable brands such as BYD, Changan, and new energy vehicle startups like Li Auto and NIO are actively participating, with a trend towards higher-end models entering the rural market [5][6]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - The initiative benefits from coordinated policies, including tax reductions and local purchase incentives, which enhance the overall discount for consumers [4]. - The initiative has successfully activated the market, with nearly 15 million vehicles sold over five years, demonstrating its effectiveness in driving industry growth [7][8]. - The penetration of new energy vehicles in rural areas is gradually increasing, as consumer perceptions shift positively through direct experience [8]. Group 3: Market Potential and Challenges - The current market for new energy vehicles is experiencing growth but faces challenges in breaking through existing market share limitations, particularly in lower-tier cities [9][10]. - The potential for growth in the new energy vehicle sector is primarily seen in lower-tier cities and rural areas, where market saturation in high-tier cities is becoming evident [10]. - Key challenges include product adaptability to rural needs and the lack of charging infrastructure, which have been identified as significant barriers to market expansion [11][12]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives by Companies - Companies are responding to market opportunities by developing products tailored to rural needs, such as Changan's new energy micro trucks designed for agricultural transport [12][13]. - Major players like Li Auto and BYD are focusing on building sales and service networks in lower-tier cities to enhance market penetration [13]. - The overall development of the rural new energy vehicle market requires a comprehensive approach, addressing consumer needs through product design, infrastructure improvement, and financial support [13].

Company Overview - Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. reported a retail revenue of 55.5 billion RMB and an annual revenue of 39.3 billion RMB, with over 14,394 stores as of April 28, 2024, indicating strong growth potential in a challenging market [2] - The company emerged from the merger of "Zero Snack Busy" and "Zhao Yiming Snacks" in 2024, combining strengths in market penetration and product selection [10] Market Insights - The Chinese snack retail market is projected to reach 1.3596 trillion RMB by 2025, showing steady growth [3] - Consumer demand for snacks is increasingly diverse, focusing on health, taste, convenience, and cost-effectiveness, leading to the rise of various new brands [7] Business Model and Strategy - Mingming Hen Mang operates on a low-price, high-quality model, with over 1,800 SKUs per store and a significant number of new products launched monthly [14] - The company maintains a strict supply chain management system, collaborating with 2,300 factories to reduce costs to 54%-70% of industry averages [14] - The company has established 36 warehouses nationwide, ensuring efficient logistics and fresh product delivery within 24 hours [15] Franchise and Expansion - The franchise model includes free franchise opportunities and comprehensive support for franchisees, enhancing profitability and brand cohesion [16] - 58% of the stores are located in lower-tier cities, demonstrating a strategic focus on market penetration across various demographics [16] Sales Channels and Marketing - Mingming Hen Mang employs a multi-channel sales strategy, including its own website, major e-commerce platforms, and delivery services, achieving an average delivery time of under 2 hours [17] - The brand utilizes social media and content marketing to connect with younger consumers, enhancing brand loyalty and influence [19] Industry Trends - The retail industry is shifting from a reliance on traffic-driven models to a focus on supply chain efficiency, with Mingming Hen Mang exemplifying this trend through its integrated supply chain approach [25] - The perception of lower-tier markets is evolving; they are seen as opportunities for diverse consumer needs rather than merely low-cost competition [25]

Core Insights - The 618 shopping festival is evolving with new players like Meituan joining, indicating a need for fresh energy in a market that has become more rational and competitive [1] - Instant retail has transformed from an optional convenience to a baseline expectation for consumers, with major e-commerce platforms increasing investments in this area [2] - AI technology is increasingly integrated into the e-commerce supply chain, enhancing efficiency and enabling new marketing tools for merchants [4][5] - Consumer decision-making is shifting towards a balance of rational cost-benefit analysis and emotional value, indicating a deeper engagement with brands [7] - The "trade-in" policy and the activation of lower-tier markets are driving new growth opportunities for e-commerce platforms [8][10] - The competition landscape is evolving, focusing on customer experience, emotional resonance, and effective management of existing assets [11] Group 1: Instant Retail - Instant retail has become a critical component of consumer experience, with platforms like Meituan and JD.com enhancing their delivery capabilities [2] - Major platforms are launching features like "1-hour delivery" to meet consumer demands for speed and convenience [2] Group 2: AI Integration - AI tools are being deployed across the e-commerce chain, with Alibaba and JD.com offering new AI-driven marketing solutions to help merchants reduce costs and improve efficiency [4][5] - The introduction of AI-generated video content is significantly reducing production costs and time for merchants [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly acting as "calculators," seeking maximum value while also being influenced by emotional factors such as brand stories and sustainability [7] - The rise of niche brands that resonate emotionally with consumers indicates a shift in purchasing motivations [7] Group 4: Market Growth Drivers - The "trade-in" policy is being leveraged by platforms to stimulate demand for durable goods, with significant subsidies being offered [8][10] - Lower-tier markets are showing strong purchasing power, prompting brands to refine their strategies to cater to these consumers [10] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The focus of competition is shifting from price wars to enhancing fulfillment experiences and emotional connections with consumers [11] - Companies must develop sharper consumer insights and more flexible supply chains to thrive in this evolving market [11]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][13][5]. Core Insights - Guming is a leading affordable fresh tea beverage brand with significant advantages, having expanded from Zhejiang to over 200 cities across 17 provinces in China, with 9,914 stores by the end of 2024 [1][25]. - The company has a strong supply chain and unique channel strategies that have propelled it to become the second-largest brand in the industry, focusing on lower-tier cities to avoid intense competition [2][11]. - The tea beverage market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size exceeding 600 billion CNY by 2024, and Guming is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [1][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Guming has been in the fresh tea beverage industry for over a decade, establishing a robust presence with a high average quarterly repurchase rate of 53% and a store operating profit margin of approximately 20% [1][25]. - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, which has facilitated rapid expansion and a strong brand presence in lower-tier cities [2][11]. Market Potential - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to reach over 1 trillion CNY by 2028, with the fresh tea segment being the largest [52][55]. - The market for fresh tea beverages is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028, particularly in lower-tier cities where Guming has focused its expansion efforts [55][60]. Supply Chain and Competitive Advantage - Guming's supply chain is a core competitive advantage, allowing for efficient operations and the ability to quickly respond to market demands [2][11]. - The company has implemented a regional density strategy, enhancing its market penetration and brand recognition in areas with multiple store locations [2][11]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.96 billion CNY, 2.36 billion CNY, and 2.76 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.99, and 1.16 CNY [3][4][13]. - Guming's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted revenue of 11.16 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a 27% growth rate [4][8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guming plans to increase its store count by 2,000 in 2025, focusing on provinces such as Anhui, Hubei, Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi [2][11]. - The introduction of coffee products is anticipated to contribute positively to store revenue, with an estimated 10% increase in sales per store [2][11].