行业 日期 2025 年 11 月 3 日 碳酸锂期货月报 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangp@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yuff@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 需求强劲带动去库，锂价看涨 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 《终端需求回暖，锂价有望止 跌》 2025-6-19 短期碳酸锂走势》 2025-7-28 观点摘要 ＃summary＃碳酸锂供应压力下降，10 月碳酸锂产量创历史新高达 92260 吨，但 从 10 月底碳酸锂周度产量上可以发现，前期贡献主要增量的锂辉石 产碳酸锂量出现拐点，盐湖产碳酸锂因季节性因素 11-12 月将逐月下 降，云母产碳酸锂量在枧下窝矿未复产背景下预计也难提升，因此 11 月碳酸锂产量预计将环比持平。需求端持续高增，10 月碳酸锂去 库速度加快 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and relevant research reports in identifying investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like short dramas and comic dramas, which have shown significant growth potential [1] - The report highlights a notable increase in stock prices for companies such as Huanrui Century, which rose over 20%, and others like Yuedu Group and Kunlun Wanwei, which saw nearly 10% gains, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [1] Group 2 - A projected demand growth rate of 50% by 2027 for energy storage is expected to initiate a new lithium battery cycle, with related material prices already increasing by over 20%, making these stocks a focus for institutional investors [2] - The convergence of low-altitude, wind power, and robotics sectors is anticipated to drive a compound growth rate exceeding 25%, with a target of 90% domestic production rate, marking the beginning of a trillion-dollar market opportunity [2]

Core Insights - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, achieving revenue of 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.08% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32.76% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 105 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 91.62% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.27% [1] - The company has solidified its leading position in key sectors such as new energy vehicles and energy storage, with high-margin new products driving revenue growth and margin improvement [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.47%, and a net profit of 242 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.77% [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 was 41.14%, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.08 percentage points, indicating improved product mix and cost control [1] - R&D, sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 8.50%, 5.69%, 4.57%, and 0.91% respectively, with an overall declining trend in expense ratios contributing to enhanced profitability [2] Business Expansion - The company is steadily expanding its production capacity in Thailand, with plans to add two more production lines by the end of 2025 and further lines in 2026, aiming to support global strategic needs [3] - The company has secured a global exclusive project for high-voltage products in Europe, with a total sales amount of 110 million yuan, expected to enter mass production by late 2025 [3] - The company aims to increase its overseas revenue to approximately 2 billion yuan, aligning its overseas and domestic revenue proportions [3] Product Development - The company is transitioning from a single component supplier to a system solution provider, with new products like relays and BDU modules showing significant market potential [4] - The data center business is expected to grow, with partnerships with major clients and the capability to upgrade to higher voltage solutions [4] - The energy storage segment has seen improved margins, with a gross margin of 44.44% for wind and solar storage products, indicating further profitability enhancement [4] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.139 billion yuan, 2.918 billion yuan, and 3.729 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 360 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 661 million yuan [5] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 3.66 yuan, 5.19 yuan, and 6.72 yuan for the same period, with corresponding PE ratios of 31.18, 22.00, and 16.98 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent US-China talks have led to a potential recovery in demand, which is expected to positively impact the chemical industry [7] - The energy storage sector is driving an optimistic outlook for lithium battery demand, particularly benefiting the phosphate rock segment due to its rigid supply characteristics [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is facing challenges due to the US-China trade disputes, but recent negotiations have shown signs of easing tensions, which may stabilize demand [7] - The global energy storage battery shipments are projected to exceed 500 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 60% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies that are well-positioned in the green polyester industry, such as Wankai New Materials (301216) [3] - Companies in the pesticide formulation sector, like Runfeng Co. (301035), Guoguang Co. (002749), and Hailier (603639), are also recommended for purchase due to their lower exposure to trade disputes [3] - The report highlights potential recovery in the petrochemical and chemical sectors, suggesting investments in Sinopec (600028), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Wanhua Chemical (600309), and Huayi Group (600623) [3]

答：2025 年以来，国内新能源汽车消费带动动力电池的需求旺 盛；全球储能需求保持高速增长，带动了储能电池出货量的大幅增 长。综合来看，今年锂电池行业增长较好。头部电池厂商开始有序 扩产，上游产业链企稳回升。未来随着各类新能源电池市场持续发 展，全球锂离子电池市场有望保持良好的增长态势，并推动上游材 料和装备产业的发展。感谢您的关注！ 2、公司新生产基地的预计成本情况，对公司盈利水平的影响 答：公司现建设生产基地主要为马来西亚项目和山西四期。马 来西亚项目受当地施工条件、效率等影响，预计单位投资规模将有 所上升，电力、人工等成本也会有所上浮。山西四期由于坐落于电 力资源较为丰富的地区，预计电力开支将有比较明显的下降，叠加 工艺进步、设备效率提升影响，新生产基地建设将为公司盈利水平 的进一步提升奠定坚实的基础。感谢您的关注！ 证券代码：001301 证券简称：尚太科技 石家庄尚太科技股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-007 | □特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huabao New Energy, is focused on the development, production, and sales of lithium battery energy storage products, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets, benefiting from the depreciation of the RMB [4][8]. Group 1: Company Overview - Huabao New Energy was established on July 25, 2011, and went public on September 19, 2022, specializing in lithium battery energy storage products [8]. - The company's main revenue sources include portable energy storage products (77.46%), photovoltaic solar panels (20.84%), and other products (1.37%) [8]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.942 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.95%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.62% to 143 million yuan [8]. Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Innovations - On July 11, 2023, the company announced a strategic partnership with Zhongbi New Energy to jointly develop sodium-ion batteries, leveraging both parties' technological strengths [2]. - As of September 8, 2023, the company's portable solar products utilize BC-type batteries, employing advanced IBC battery technology with a conversion efficiency of up to 25% [2]. Group 3: Market Performance and Financials - On November 3, 2023, Huabao New Energy's stock price increased by 0.05%, with a trading volume of 136 million yuan and a market capitalization of 10.663 billion yuan [1]. - The company has a high overseas revenue ratio of 95.09%, benefiting from the depreciation of the RMB [4]. - The average trading cost of the stock is 67.36 yuan, with recent trading activity indicating a potential pressure point at 63.08 yuan [7].

异动分析 来源：新浪证券-红岸工作室 11月3日，禾迈股份涨1.51%，成交额1.41亿元，换手率1.06%，总市值134.92亿元。 主力持仓 光伏概念+储能+专精特新+人民币贬值受益+回购增持再贷款概念 1、杭州禾迈电力电子股份有限公司主营业务是光伏逆变器相关产品、储能相关产品、电气成套设备及 相关产品的研发、制造与销售业务。主要产品有微型逆变器及监控设备、分布式光伏发电系统、模块化 逆变器及其他电力变换设备、电气成套设备及元器件。 2、杭州禾迈电力电子股份有限公司的主营业务是光伏逆变器相关产品、储能相关产品、电气成套设备 及相关产品的研发、制造与销售业务。公司的主要产品是微型逆变器及监控设备、关断系统、组串式逆 变器、光伏发电系统、储能逆变器、储能系统。 3、专精特新"小巨人"企业是全国中小企业评定工作中最高等级、最具权威的荣誉称号，是指专注于细 分市场、创新能力强、市场占有率高、掌握关键核心技术、质量效益优的排头兵企业，对于提升中小企 业自身的竞争力，以及提升产业链、供应链稳定性和竞争力具有重大意义。公司已入选工信部国家级专 精特新小巨人企业名单。 4、根据2024年年报，公司海外营收占比为64.25 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.078 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.96%, with a net profit of 625 million yuan, up 29.46% year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on an integrated direction of "PCB + packaging," with significant growth potential in the fields of electric vehicles and humanoid robots, which demand higher performance and specifications for PCB products [7] - The company has successfully mass-produced various PCB products for AI servers and has entered the high-speed connector and power module sectors through ODM manufacturers [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 62.47 billion yuan, 86.08 billion yuan, and 126.44 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 8.70 billion yuan, 12.57 billion yuan, and 19.22 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 14.99 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.16%, and a net profit of 2.41 billion yuan, up 33.77% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin improved to 22.92%, and the net margin increased to 15.66% in Q3 2025 [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.21 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 35.1 [6][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 4.519 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.644 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.9% [6][8] - Net profit is expected to increase from 496 million yuan in 2023 to 1.922 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 53.0% [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 15.1% in 2023 to 20.2% in 2027 [6][8]

Group 1: Energy Storage Market Trends - The global energy storage market is experiencing a significant recovery, driven by the marketization of new energy and capacity pricing, with a projected increase in domestic new installations to 300 GWh next year [4] - LG Energy Solutions reported a revenue of 5.7 trillion KRW (approximately 28.33 billion RMB) for Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.4%, and an operating profit of 601.3 billion KRW (approximately 2.99 billion RMB), reflecting a 22.2% increase [3] - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow significantly, with LG Energy Solutions having a backlog of approximately 120 GWh in energy storage battery orders and over 300 GWh in orders for 46 series cylindrical batteries [3] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The thorium molten salt reactor is the only liquid fuel reactor among the six candidate reactor types for the fourth generation of nuclear energy systems, offering advantages such as high safety, abundant resources, high thermal efficiency, and environmental friendliness [2] - The successful conversion of thorium-uranium nuclear fuel in a 2 MW liquid fuel thorium molten salt experimental reactor marks a significant milestone, providing critical initial validation for the feasibility of using thorium resources in molten salt reactor systems [1][2] Group 3: Company Performance and Investments - The average increase in energy storage concept stocks is 62.46% year-to-date, with companies like Haibo Shichuang and Xian Dao Intelligent seeing stock prices double, and Haibo Shichuang achieving a remarkable increase of 336.98% [5] - Companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, and Sunshine Power have reported significant net profit growth, with Ningde Times achieving a revenue of 283.07 billion RMB and a net profit of 49.03 billion RMB for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.28% and 36.2% respectively [6] - The social security fund has invested in 11 energy storage concept stocks, with companies like Haopeng Technology and Shenghong Shares holding significant shares [7]

Group 1 - The lithium battery industry showed significant recovery in Q3, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 32.86% in the first three quarters, and a remarkable increase of 55.41% in Q3, primarily driven by the surge in energy storage demand [1] - Domestic and overseas demand for energy storage is expected to resonate positively, with optimistic projections for new installations. It is estimated that from 2025 to 2027, domestic energy storage installations will reach 150 GWh, 260 GWh, and 380 GWh respectively, while global installations will reach 272 GWh, 441 GWh, and 642 GWh [1] - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing significant catalysts, with key developments expected in November, including successful mid-term assessments and upcoming road tests for solid-state batteries in heavy-duty vehicles. Major battery manufacturers and vehicle manufacturers are anticipated to initiate a new round of order tenders by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are suggested in the ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387), which covers lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, and other industries comprehensively. For those interested in solid-state batteries, the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806) is recommended, closely tracking the CSI New Energy Vehicle Index, with over 40% weight in solid-state battery-related stocks [1]