虽然本田季度业绩受到美国汽车进口关税冲击，本田仍然上调年度利润预期，从此前的5000亿日元上调至7000亿日元。本田解释称，最新的贸易协议避免“最坏情况”，目前预计损失4500亿日元，低于此前6500亿日元的预期。本田4至6月利润为2440亿日元，低于预期的3100亿日元，其中1250亿日元受到关税负面影响。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-08-06 商品价格波动仍剧烈 市场分析 市场再回归基本面验证阶段。7月30日政治局会议明部署下半年经济工作：对于宏观政策基调，会议强调"宏观政 策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"，维持"稳中有进"的基调，关 于反内卷，会议强调"依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理"，较前期中央财经委提法有所修正， 或指向后续"反内卷"政策将更温和。中国7月官方制造业PMI回落至49.3，新订单指数回落至49.4，非制造业保持扩 张，后续需要关注对等关税落地对经济事实的影响。8月5日，A股全天震荡走高，午后三大股指持续拉升，沪指涨 近1%，重回3600点上方，再创年内收盘新高。银行、保险、钢铁等权重股上涨，PEEK材料、高速铜连接等概念股 活跃。商品期货收盘，焦煤主力合约涨近7%，多晶硅、焦炭涨超3%。 关注"对等关税"的影响。7月31日，白宫发布行政令，对部分国家重新设定"对等关税"税率标准：行政令附件1中列 明国家将适用个别税率，未列明国家则统一适用10%的税率；如有国家或地区通过第三地转运方式规避关税，其商 品将被征收40%的转运税。据白宫公 ...

周末，我们对国际产品以及国际产品整体行情都有一个梳理，继续参考视频分析 黑色系期货还要继续疯狂吗？原油系探底回升！ 非农爆冷，黄金多头绝地反击，是大涨开始还是昙花一现？ 黄金大扫荡还在上演，我们认为这种大扫荡行情依然会持续；这主要是基本面决定的，上周五非农数据后，市场上开始 压住美联储降息次数的增加以及概率的增加；同时，特朗普也在威胁医药关税和芯片关税，这两点主要是针对欧盟和印 度。 美联储降息和关税这两方面，对黄金是构成利多的；我们需要注意的是，当下黄金利多持续性不强，且黄金月线连续4跟 上影线压制下，多头也会很谨慎；这就是当前黄金继续大扫荡的原因，直线上涨和直线下跌轮番上演。 行情回顾 昨天早上文章强调黄金虽然多头强势，但短期快涨后需要调整修正，继续关注冲高回落，第一3386区域压制下跌，第二 3400-05区域压制下跌；最终，黄金亚盘最高3382-83迎来回落，欧盘时段下破强弱分界线3370区域，美盘前夕最低3350 区域。在晚上我们发布文章强调，黄金3345区域支撑很关键，下破前看反弹；最终，黄金3349~50之间止跌反转，多头一 路向上并上破日内高点最高至3390一线，尾盘回落，日线以上下影小阳线收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. However, due to the resilience of the fundamentals, the downside space is also limited. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. Without significant macro disturbances, copper prices may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Aluminum - In the short term, aluminum prices are still under pressure at high levels. The main contract price this month is expected to range from 20,000 - 21,000. In the future, it is necessary to focus on inventory changes and marginal changes in demand [4]. Aluminum Alloy - It is expected that the aluminum alloy market will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,200. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream scrap aluminum supply and imports [6]. Zinc - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to mainly fluctuate. The main reference range is 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly in August, there is a large downward space for tin prices, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [14]. Stainless Steel - In the short term, the stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, market sentiment and news have dominated the market trend. The main price center of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely around 65,000 - 70,000. It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. In the near future, attention should be paid to news increments and supply adjustments [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.25% to 78,675 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed different degrees of changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. In June, electrolytic copper imports were 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.20% to 20,520 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.25% to 20,050 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.59% to 22,300 yuan/ton; the premium increased by 40 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. In June, refined zinc imports were 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [10]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.45% to 267,000 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In June, domestic tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.44%. SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.94%. There were also changes in inventory and开工 rates [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.54% to 121,900 yuan/ton; the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton [14]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. There were also changes in inventory [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,000 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread decreased by 14.29% to 210 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. There were also changes in imports, exports and inventory [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.21% to 71,200 yuan/ton; the basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 81.40% to 3,900 yuan/ton [19]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. Demand was 96,275 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. There were also changes in inventory [19].

Market Overview - The US ISM Services PMI shows signs of weakness, with the price index remaining high, raising concerns about stagflation risks affecting the Federal Reserve's policy path [2][3] - Large tech stocks led the decline in US markets, while small-cap stocks saw a 0.6% increase [2] - AMD's Q2 profits fell short of expectations, leading to a 5.7% drop in stock price post-earnings [2][5][16] - US Treasury yields rose broadly, with the 2-year yield increasing by nearly 5 basis points [2] - Gold experienced a V-shaped recovery, rising 1.2% from its daily low, while oil prices fell by 1.6% amid reports of potential ceasefire discussions between Russia and Ukraine [2][15] Key News - The People's Bank of China and seven departments are enhancing financial support for new industrialization and digital infrastructure [3][12] - The US ISM Services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, with the employment index contracting and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022 [3][13] - Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on drugs and chips, while also considering candidates for the Federal Reserve Board [3][13] - The US Treasury plans to issue a record $100 billion in four-week Treasury bills this week [3][14] Company Updates - AMD reported record Q2 revenue but faced a decline in profit margins and a 30% year-over-year drop in EPS, with uncertainty surrounding the export of MI308 products to China [5][16] - OpenAI released two free-to-use open-weight language models, marking its first release of this kind in six years [6][18] - Anthropic launched Opus 4.1, enhancing capabilities in programming, research, and data analysis [19] - Nvidia's stock surged, while Apple and Tesla faced declines, indicating a divergence among tech giants [29] Industry Insights - The Chinese Robotaxi industry is on the verge of large-scale deployment, with leading companies expected to achieve profitability by 2026 [24] - The high demand for high-end chips has led to a significant revenue increase for Haiguang Information, with Q2 revenue up 41.1% year-over-year [25] - The solar glass industry is facing challenges due to weak demand and high production costs, leading to a forecasted decline in profitability [24]

Group 1 - Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter urgently traveled to Washington to negotiate with the Trump administration to lower the recently announced 39% tariff rate [1] - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 39% tariff on Switzerland, which caused significant concern in Switzerland [1][3] - Trump highlighted the substantial trade deficit between the U.S. and Switzerland, particularly criticizing the wealth generated by the Swiss pharmaceutical industry [3] Group 2 - Keller-Sutter and the Swiss Federal Council are facing political pressure regarding potential concessions in trade negotiations, particularly in agriculture and pharmaceuticals [4] - Any concessions in agricultural tariffs could provoke backlash from Swiss farmers, who have previously committed to opposing changes to the current system [4] - The trade deficit with the U.S. is significantly influenced by gold trade, with two-thirds of the deficit in the first quarter attributed to gold bar transportation [4] Group 3 - Former Swiss diplomat Thomas Borer suggested that Switzerland could make concessions in oil, weapons, and liquefied natural gas, while also pressuring Swiss pharmaceutical companies to lower prices [5] - Switzerland is currently negotiating the purchase of 36 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin, but there are disagreements over the contract price [5] Group 4 - Trade policy researcher Stefan Legge emphasized the need for Switzerland to be creative in negotiations, suggesting symbolic gestures could be effective [6]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a collective decline on August 5, with the Dow Jones down 0.14% to 44,111.74 points, the S&P 500 down 0.49% to 6,299.19 points, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.65% to 20,916.55 points [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The ISM reported that the US services PMI for July was 50.1, below market expectations of 51.5 and the previous month's 50.8, indicating near stagnation in service sector growth [2][3]. - Employment indicators fell from 47.2 to 46.4, marking a low point since the COVID-19 pandemic [2]. - The prices for materials and services rose to 69.9, the highest since October 2022 [2]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - The report highlighted challenges for the Federal Reserve, as rising price indices contrast with weakening activity and employment metrics [3]. - New tariff announcements from former President Trump, including a "small tariff" on imported drugs that could rise to 250%, are expected to impact market sentiment [3]. Company Performance - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia down 0.97%, Microsoft down 1.47%, and Meta down 1.66%. Amazon was an exception, rising by 0.99% [4][5]. - Palantir's stock surged by 7.85%, reaching a market cap exceeding $400 billion, following a quarterly revenue report that surpassed $1 billion, a 48% year-over-year increase [5]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.56%, with mixed performances among popular Chinese stocks [7]. Company News - OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic have been approved as AI suppliers for the US government, which is expected to accelerate the adoption of AI tools in federal operations [8][9]. - Coinbase announced plans to issue $2 billion in convertible bonds to raise funds for stock buybacks and debt repayment [10]. - AMD reported a second-quarter net profit of $781 million, a 31% year-over-year decline, with revenues of $7.69 billion, a 32% increase [11]. - Supermicro's fourth-quarter net sales were $5.76 billion, below analyst expectations, with a projected fiscal year 2026 net sales of at least $33 billion [12]. - Lucid reported a second-quarter adjusted loss of $632.1 million, with revenues of $259.4 million, a 29% increase year-over-year [13].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Second quarter revenue reached $442 million, exceeding the high end of guidance, representing a 21% year-over-year growth and a 9% sequential increase [19][20] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.50, up 76% from the previous year, marking the highest level since 2022 [19] - Gross margin improved to 38.1%, up 20 basis points sequentially, despite increased tariff expenses [22][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue was $210 million, up 11% year-over-year but down 6% sequentially [20] - Data center computing revenue surged to $142 million, up 47% quarter-over-quarter and 94% year-over-year [21] - Industrial and medical revenue increased 7% sequentially to $69 million but was down 13% year-over-year [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor market showed double-digit year-over-year growth, although it faced sequential declines due to customer delivery schedule shifts [10][20] - Data center computing market demand is expected to remain strong, with revenue growth projected to exceed 80% for 2025 [16][29] - Industrial and medical markets are showing signs of recovery, with total backlog growing for the first time since early 2023 [13][21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a diversification strategy across three distinct target markets to mitigate cycle risk and enhance profitability [7][8] - Investments in technology and capacity are being made to support long-term growth, particularly in data center and semiconductor markets [8][18] - The closure of the last factory in China is expected to improve gross margins, targeting 40% by the end of 2025 [10][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining data center revenue growth into 2026, driven by high investment rates from hyperscalers [36] - The company anticipates overall revenue growth of approximately 17% for 2025, with specific growth expectations for data center and semiconductor markets [16][28] - Management highlighted the importance of mitigating tariff impacts through various strategies, including optimizing supply chains [10][27] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $23 million of its common stock during the quarter, reflecting a strong cash position with total cash and equivalents at $714 million [24][25] - Free cash flow grew 21% sequentially, indicating robust cash generation capabilities [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of data center demand - Management believes data center revenues are sustainable into 2026 due to continued high investment from hyperscalers [36] Question: Content per server for AI data centers - AI data centers have significantly higher power consumption, leading to increased revenue potential, although not on a linear basis [42][44] Question: Changes in semiconductor growth projections - The semiconductor growth projection was adjusted to mid-single digits for 2025 due to tariff impacts and market conditions [48][50] Question: Impact of new design wins in industrial and medical - New design wins are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the second half of the year, alongside market recovery [70] Question: Inventory levels and customer behavior - There is no significant overstocking observed in data center customers, with a cautious approach to inventory management in industrial and medical sectors [75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Second quarter revenue reached $442 million, exceeding guidance and reflecting a 21% year-over-year growth, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth [5][18][19] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.50, up 76% from the previous year, the highest level since 2022 [18][19] - Gross margin improved slightly to 38.1%, with operating margin increasing by 110 basis points sequentially [18][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue was $210 million, up 11% year-over-year but down 6% sequentially due to customer delivery schedule shifts [19][20] - Data center computing revenue surged to $142 million, up 47% quarter-over-quarter and nearly doubled year-over-year [20][11] - Industrial and medical revenue was $69 million, a 7% sequential increase but down 13% year-over-year [20][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The semiconductor market showed solid year-over-year growth despite a sequential decline, influenced by tariff impacts and customer inventory management [19][51] - Data center demand is expected to remain strong, with projections for over 80% growth in 2025 [15][28] - Industrial and medical markets are showing signs of recovery, with increased backlog and improved customer inventory levels [12][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a diversification strategy across three distinct markets to mitigate cycle risks and enhance profitability [6][15] - Investments in technology and capacity are being made to support long-term growth, particularly in data center and semiconductor markets [7][16] - The closure of the last China factory is expected to contribute to gross margin improvements, targeting 40% by the end of 2025 [9][28] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in sustaining data center revenue growth into 2026, driven by high investment from hyperscalers [36] - The company anticipates modest sequential growth in industrial and medical markets, with a stronger order book driving higher revenue in the second half of the year [15][72] - Tariff impacts are being actively managed through various mitigation strategies, with expectations for continued operational improvements [25][26] Other Important Information - Total cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q2 were $714 million, with net cash of $147 million [22][24] - The company repurchased $23 million of common stock during the quarter [22][24] - Free cash flow grew 21% sequentially, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Sustainability of data center demand - Management believes data center revenues are sustainable into 2026 due to continued high investment from hyperscalers [36] Question: Content per server for AI data centers - AI data centers have significantly higher power consumption, leading to increased revenue potential, though not on a linear basis [42][45] Question: Changes in semiconductor growth projections - The semiconductor growth projection was adjusted to mid-single digits for 2025 due to tariff impacts and market conditions [49][51] Question: Impact of tariffs on gross margin - Tariff costs are expected to remain at current levels, with mitigation strategies in place to offset impacts [53][55] Question: Design wins in industrial and medical - Recent design wins are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the second half, alongside market recovery [71][72]

Core Points - Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter urgently traveled to Washington to negotiate with the Trump administration to reduce the recently announced 39% tariff on Swiss goods [1] - The U.S. President Trump emphasized the significant trade deficit between the U.S. and Switzerland, particularly highlighting the wealth generated by the Swiss pharmaceutical industry [1] - The Swiss government is under pressure to respond to the tariffs, with potential negotiation focuses including gold, agriculture, aircraft, pharmaceuticals, and energy [2] Trade Negotiation Challenges - Keller-Sutter and Economic Minister Guy Parmelin face political risks in making concessions, which may not effectively address Trump's criticisms regarding the trade deficit [3] - Agriculture is the only sector where Switzerland retains tariffs, and any concessions in this area could provoke backlash from farmers [3] - The trade deficit in gold is significant, with two-thirds of the deficit in the first quarter attributed to gold bar transportation [3] Strategic Recommendations - Former Swiss diplomat Thomas Borer suggested purchasing oil, weapons, and liquefied natural gas, and making concessions in agriculture while pressuring Swiss pharmaceutical companies to lower prices [4] - Switzerland is currently negotiating the purchase of 36 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin, but there are disagreements over the contract price [4] - Trade policy researcher Stefan Legge proposed creative approaches, such as symbolic gifts to Trump, to improve diplomatic relations [5]