1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The release of weak economic data on September 15 boosted the bond market, with treasury bond futures closing higher across the board. However, the bond market still lacks a breakthrough, and investors may need to be patient and wait for better allocation opportunities. The short - end bonds are more resilient than the long - end bonds under the support of loose liquidity [8][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Economic data weakness boosted the bond market, with all treasury bond futures closing higher. The yields of major term interest - bearing bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term decline and long - term increase, with the medium - and long - term changes around 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 reported 1.8000%, up 1.05bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank withdrew funds in the open market, and the overall funding situation was stable. There were 3115 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2800 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 315 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates mostly rose slightly, and medium - and long - term funds also increased slightly [10]. - **Conclusion**: The national economic activities in August showed weakness, with consumption slowing down and the decline in the real estate market expanding again, indicating that the foundation for domestic demand recovery is still weak. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is not high, and policy may focus on fiscal and credit expansion and real estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market. However, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may ease. The short - end bonds are more resilient under the support of loose funds [11][12]. 4.2 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In August, fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, real estate investment declined year - on - year, consumption growth slowed down, and industrial added value increased year - on - year. From January to August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 6% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 2.8%. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale was higher than the same period last year [13][14]. - **Policy News**: The Ministry of Finance stated that the fiscal policy has sufficient room for action. A 500 billion yuan special treasury bond was issued this year, which is expected to leverage about 6 trillion yuan of credit [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on September 15, including settlement prices, opening prices, closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest, is provided. Also, there are details about the inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads of the main contracts, as well as the trend of the main contracts [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Graphs showing the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, and the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rates are presented [28][30]. - **Derivatives Market**: Graphs of Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves (mean) are provided [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's attitude. Considering the limited potential for a weak rebound, some long positions can be taken profit [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Monday, bond futures continued to rebound, with all contracts closing higher and long - term varieties seeing larger gains. There were 28 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and 60 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 56.85 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, and the DR001 rate rose to 1.41% [1] 2. Intraday News - Trump expects the Fed to "significantly cut interest rates" this week [2] - In August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year cumulatively, real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year cumulatively, industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2] 3. Market Analysis and Judgment - Although some A - share indices reached new highs today, the bond market basically shook off the influence of the stock market. The economic data announced in the morning showed that investment and consumption continued to slow down, and the boosting effect of the "two new" policies weakened. The real estate market is still bottom - seeking, and the decline in sales and new construction has not converged. The fundamentals determine that there is a ceiling for interest rates, but the current market trading sentiment is still weak, and long - term interest rates rose again after the futures market closed. In addition, the funding situation has tightened again due to the tax period, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection intensity in the next few days [2] 4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures - **Price Changes**: The prices of TS2512, TF2512, T2512, and TL2512 on September 15, 2025, were 102.368, 105.66, 107.84, and 115.48 respectively, with daily increases of 0.004, 0.08, 0.16, and 0.32 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Position Changes**: The positions of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were 72,691, 135,920, 236,190, and 162,580 hands respectively, with changes of + 1,775, - 843, + 4,644, and + 1,932 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Basis Changes**: The bases (CTD) of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts on September 15, 2025, were - 0.0291, 0.0708, 0.4266, and 0.554 respectively, with changes of 0.0239, 0.0307, 0.0473, and 0.2482 compared to September 12, 2025 [3] - **Trading Volume Changes**: The trading volumes of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts on September 15, 2025, were 24,122, 54,025, 94,600, and 111,024 hands respectively, with decreases of 10,117, 17,431, 9,200, and 39,156 hands compared to September 12, 2025 [3] 5. Graphical Data - The report also includes graphical data on the basis and IRR of T, TL, TF, and TS main contracts, long - term and ultra - long - term bond interest rate trends, deposit - type institution financing interest rates and policy interest rates, exchange financing interest rates, fund stratification, US Treasury bond yield trends, and US - China interest rate differentials and RMB exchange rates [4][8][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Stock index fluctuations increase and bonds recover. Stock index futures should be put under observation, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [121][123][124] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50) and CSI 300 Market Review**: The SSE 50 is approaching a new high, and the CSI 300 has reached a new high [9] - **1.2 CSI 500 and 10 - year Treasury Bond Market Review**: The CSI 500 has reached a new high, and treasury bond futures have rebounded slightly [15][16] 3.2 Market Momentum Analysis - **2.1.1 Trading Volume of SSE 50 and CSI 300**: The trading volume of the SSE 50 has declined, while that of the CSI 300 has increased [21] - **2.1.2 Trading Volume of CSI 500 and CSI 1000**: The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have declined [25] - **2.1.2 Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance exceeds 2 trillion [29] - **2.1.3 Turnover Rate - Free - Float Market Capitalization**: The turnover rates of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 have increased, and those of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have increased significantly [32] - **2.2.1 CSI 300 Sector**: The sectors are relatively consistent [39] - **2.2.2 CSI 300 Sector ALPHA**: The ALPHA values of the materials, information, and telecommunications sectors are positive, while those of the energy, finance, and utilities sectors are negative over the full cycle [43] - **2.3 Newly Listed Companies**: In July, the number of listed companies increased by 3 [49] - **2.4.1 Stock Index Positions**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.4.2 Stock Index Premium or Discount**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **2.5.2 Treasury Bond Basis - Cheapest - to - Deliver Bond**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **3.1.1 Open Market Operations**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Yield to Maturity - CSI**: Not elaborated in the provided content - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (10 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has declined significantly [84] - **3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures (5 - year) IRR**: The IRR of the next - quarter 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [87] - **3.1.3 Inter - bank Repo Rate**: The inter - bank repo rate has declined slightly [91] - **3.1.4 Shibor**: The short - term Shibor has declined significantly [95] - **3.2.1 CPI - PPI**: In August, the CPI was - 0.4%, showing a slight recovery, and the PPI growth rate reached - 2.9% [99] - **3.2.2 Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing Activities**: In August, the PMI dropped to 49.4, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3, indicating weak economic recovery [103] - **3.3.1 Consumption Situation**: In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, showing a slight increase [108] - **3.3.2 Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence is on a downward trend [111] - **3.4.1 Overall Money Supply**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, credit accelerated, and M1 was 6% (Note: The central bank revised the M1 indicator). The newly added RMB loans in August were 590 billion [113][115] - **3.4.2 Newly Added RMB Loans**: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.4 Outlook for the Future - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market trading volume is at the level of 2.5 trillion. Market sentiment shows that the number of limit - up stocks exceeds 100, and the number of falling stocks increases significantly. Hot sectors such as AI, the chip industry chain, and communications are experiencing significant high - level fluctuations. Funds are flowing into low - valuation sectors. Institutions have net inflows, while the main players, large - scale investors, and retail investors all have net outflows. Stock market fluctuations increase, and stock index futures should be put under observation [123] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: At the money market level, the central bank has a net reverse - repurchase injection of 196.1 billion. The money liquidity is relatively sufficient, and domestic market interest rates remain low. The yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuates around 1.7895%. With significant stock market fluctuations, investors' risk preferences may be more cautious, and light long positions in treasury bond futures are recommended [124]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents the performance data of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.022, 4.606, 3.441 respectively. There were no latest changes, but significant weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were observed. For example, the US had a one - year change of 0.266, while Italy had a one - year change of - 0.206 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.540, 3.927, 1.983 respectively. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also varied. For instance, the US had a one - year change of - 0.020, while Japan had a one - year change of 0.484 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: As of September 12, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc., were 5.389, 108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, and weekly, monthly, and yearly changes differed. For example, the Brazilian real had a one - year change of - 4.48% against the US dollar [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On September 12, 2025, the values of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc., were 6587.470, 46108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, but weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were notable. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - year change of 19.34% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: There were no latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were positive in most cases. For example, the US high - yield credit bond index had a one - year change of 8.93% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were 3870.60, 4522.00 respectively, with different percentage changes. For example, the A - shares had a change of - 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 14.13, 11.90 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3.70, 5.77 respectively, with no环比 changes [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc., were 1342.66, 657.95 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 25209.25, 6895.76 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC were 1.20, 0.06, - 7.75 respectively, with corresponding basis spreads [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc., were 107.880, 105.760 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.14%, 0.19% respectively [6]. - **Funding Rates and Daily Changes**: The funding rates of R001, R007, etc., were 1.3979%, 1.4651% respectively, with daily changes of - 9.00BP, - 2.00BP respectively [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2512 are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures maintained low - level oscillation and consolidation. Today, the stock market rose unilaterally, and the recovery of stock market risk appetite suppressed the bond market. Inflation data is still weak, and subsequent policy - makers will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate recovery of inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be strengthened in the fourth quarter, which will put pressure on the supply side of Treasury bonds. Since there is no need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, the downward space for market interest rates is limited, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 11, 2025, the spot yields of treasury bonds mostly strengthened, with the ultra - long end weakening. Treasury bond futures showed short - term strength and long - term weakness. The domestic fundamental situation indicated a stable recovery of the overall price level, and overseas, the downward revision of US non - farm employment data led to market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, creating room for China's overall easing policy. Recently, the bond market has been weak, driven by pessimistic sentiment. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of bond futures in the short term and consider band allocation after stabilization, while also paying attention to opportunities for the expansion of term spreads due to a steeper yield curve [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.580, up 0.07%, with a trading volume of 30,204 (an increase); TF主力收盘价105.590, up 0.14%, with a trading volume of 17,654 (an increase); TS主力收盘价102.410, up 0.06%, with a trading volume of 3,960 (an increase); TL主力收盘价114.740, down 0.11%, with a trading volume of 37,306 (an increase) [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 7.16, down - 0.44, up 0.16; T12 - TL12 spread increased by 0.11; T2512 - 2509 spread was - 1.99, down - 0.30, down 0.06; TF12 - T12 spread increased by 0.08; TF2512 - 2509 spread was - 5.17, down - 0.18, down 0.03; TS12 - T12 spread decreased by 0.03; TS2512 - 2509 spread was - 3.18, up 0.06, up 0.03; TS12 - TF12 spread decreased by - 0.11 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量 was 196,841, an increase of 5,005; T前20名多头 increased by 2,529; T前20名空头 increased by 7,964; T前20名净空仓 decreased by 5,435; TF主力持仓量 was 122,214, an increase of 2,666; TF前20名多头 increased by 1,461; TF前20名空头 increased by 2,478; TF前20名净空仓 increased by 1,017; TS主力持仓量 was 54,959, an increase of 181; TS前20名多头 decreased by 632; TS前20名空头 increased by 425; TS前20名净空仓 increased by 1,057; TL主力持仓量 was 119,162, an increase of 1,940; TL前20名多头 increased by 2,127; TL前20名空头 increased by 5,973; TL前20名净空仓 increased by 3,846 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220017.IB(6y) was 99.0955, up 0.0984; 220019.IB(6y) was up 0.0820; 230006.IB(4y) was 100.8844, up 0.0306; 240020.IB(4y) was up 0.1465; 250012.IB(1.7y) was 101.9942, up 0.0432; 220016.IB(2y) was up 0.0157; 210005.IB(17y) was 122.5704, down - 0.0023; 220008.IB(18y) was down - 0.1141 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Coupons - 1 - year coupon was 1.4300%, up 1.00bp; 3 - year coupon was up 0.75bp; 5 - year coupon was 1.7525%, up 1.75bp; 7 - year coupon was up 2.00bp; 10 - year coupon was 1.8150%, up 2.00bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - Overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3690%, up 4.46bp; Shibor overnight was down 5.60bp; 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.4660%, up 3.05bp; Shibor 7 - day was up 1.70bp; 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5100%, down 3.00bp; Shibor 14 - day was up 0.90bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged; 5 - year LPR was unchanged [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - Issuance scale was 292 billion yuan, maturity scale was 212.6 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repos [2] 3.9 Industry News - In August, China's CPI was flat month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year, with core CPI up 0.9% year - on - year. PPI was flat month - on - month and down 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The Ministry of Finance stated that fiscal policies have been more proactive this year. From March 2024 to March 2025, US private non - farm employment decreased by 880,000, with various sectors seeing employment declines [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - At 20:15 on September 11, the European Central Bank's interest rate decision; at 20:30 on September 11, US August CPI and core CPI data [3]

国债期货日报 2025/09/10 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-10 | 2025-09-09 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.348 | 102.39 | -0.042 | TS合约持仓(手） | 73128 | 72585 | 543 | | TF2512 | 105.445 | 105.58 | -0.135 | TF合约持仓(手） | 144218 | 145470 | -1252 | | T2512 | 107.505 | 107.785 | -0.28 | T合约持仓(手） | 230673 | 224582 | 6091 | | TL2512 | 114.87 | 115.76 | -0.89 | TL合约持仓(手） | 153937 | 144317 | 9620 | | TS基差（CTD) | -0.0418 | -0.03 ...

Core Insights - The interbank major interest rate bond yields accelerated upward in the afternoon of September 10, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a new high since its listing [1] - The 30-year government bond yield also hit a new high, indicating a significant increase in long-term interest rates [1] Summary by Category - **Government Bond Yields** - The 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.82% [1] - The 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield increased by 3 basis points to 2.10% [1] - **Government Bond Futures** - All maturities of government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year futures main contract dropping by 0.86% [1] - The 10-year futures main contract fell by 0.27% [1] - The 5-year futures main contract decreased by 0.15% [1] - The 2-year futures main contract declined by 0.04% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory outlook. The core logic is that there are still medium - to - long - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Yesterday, bond futures oscillated throughout the day. Due to the recent short - term adjustment in the stock market, risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the market interest rate's upward space is limited under the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate, so bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, there is insufficient need for a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut, and the downward space of the short - term market interest rate is limited, so the upward momentum of bond futures may be insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the future monetary policy environment is generally loose, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has greatly weakened, so there is still room for interest rate cuts in the future, and bond futures are more likely to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is the co - existence of medium - to - long - term interest rate cut expectations and low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated yesterday. The short - term stock market adjustment increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the policy interest rate limited the upward space of the market interest rate, leading to a rebound of bond futures. But short - term interest rate cut needs are insufficient, limiting the downward space of market interest rates and the upward momentum of bond futures. Attention should be paid to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank's bond trading operations after the second meeting of the joint working group. In the medium - to - long - term, the loose monetary policy and the weakening RMB depreciation pressure due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut leave room for interest rate cuts, increasing the possibility of bond futures rising [5].