Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of futures markets in facilitating cross-border trade and managing risks associated with price fluctuations [1][5] - Companies like Xiamen Guotai Petrochemical and Xiamen Jianfa are utilizing futures contracts to lock in prices and mitigate risks in their trading operations [1][2] - The integration of hedging strategies, such as basis trading and options, allows companies to navigate uncertainties in international markets effectively [2][3][4] Group 2 - The use of basis trading separates price determination from contract signing, enabling buyers to lower costs while sellers can lock in profits, thus avoiding the risks of betting on market trends [2][5] - The article provides examples of companies successfully employing futures tools, such as Xiamen Jianfa's use of futures contracts for rapeseed meal and Mucai Zhongda's use of options to hedge against shipping risks [3][4] - The acceptance of "Chinese prices" by foreign enterprises is driven by China's significant role in global commodity consumption and trade, as well as the ability for these enterprises to participate directly in Chinese futures markets [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of futures trading in managing risks and enhancing competitiveness in cross-border trade, particularly in the context of changing global trade dynamics [1][5] - Xiamen Guotai Petrochemical successfully negotiated a PTA order with European buyers by utilizing a basis pricing strategy, which allowed them to secure a reasonable profit margin despite price negotiations [1][5] - Xiamen Jianfa combined hedging with basis trading in their procurement of Australian rapeseed meal, effectively managing price fluctuations and avoiding significant losses through strategic use of futures contracts [2][5] Group 2 - The article discusses the use of options by Wucai Zhongda Chemical Group to mitigate risks associated with importing Ukrainian sunflower meal during a crisis, demonstrating the effectiveness of dual insurance strategies in cross-border trade [3][4] - Wucai Zhongda also employed futures contracts to hedge against price declines in peanut procurement from Senegal, showcasing innovative risk management techniques in volatile markets [4] - The active trading of agricultural futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has significantly improved companies' risk management capabilities and enhanced their market competitiveness in international agricultural trade [5]

今年国内清明节假期前夕，美国宣布对全球主要贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，这一举措令全球贸易陷入紧 张，与之紧密关联的海运业也面临巨大压力。在贸易节奏被打乱的背景下，运价波动风险急剧上升。南 华期货航运研究业务负责人傅小燕捕捉到这一市场变化，第一时间响应了客户的避险需求。 "对等关税"冲击海运贸易节奏 国内某知名国际货代企业为迎接二季度海运旺季，今年3月与船公司签订了欧线舱位采购合同，锁定100 个舱位（TEU），单价1800美元。然而，美国宣布征收"对等关税"，令旺季预期转淡，欧线运价承压下 行。考虑到取消合同可能损害商业信誉与合作关系，该企业计划利用集运指数（欧线）期货进行套保， 以对冲现货订舱风险。 编者按：为深入展现期货市场服务实体经济的创新实践，上期所发起2025年"期货市场服务实体经济创 新案例"征集活动，聚焦案例的主题性、创新性、实践价值及可推广性。即日起，本报将陆续刊登具有 代表性的优秀案例，分享期货工具在助力产业升级、风险管理及乡村振兴中的成功经验。 "五一"假期结束后，美国"对等关税"暂缓实施的消息出炉，下游客户订舱积极性显著提升，期现基差也 呈现先回落后回升态势。5月 12日，中美发布联合声明 ...

Core Insights - The launch of the container shipping index (European route) futures has provided a powerful tool for managing price risks in the shipping and trade export sectors, especially amid high volatility in freight rates [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 15, 2025, the container shipping index (European route) futures have recorded a total of 483 trading days, with a cumulative trading volume of 61.0491 million contracts and a cumulative trading value of 5.28 trillion yuan [1] - The average daily trading volume stands at 126,400 contracts, with an average daily trading value of 10.942 billion yuan, and the end-of-period open interest is 79,500 contracts [1] Group 2: Industry Participation - The participation of shipping industry chain enterprises in the futures market has gradually increased, with stakeholders including shippers and logistics companies actively engaging in hedging activities [2][3] - Freight forwarding companies are particularly active in using the futures for risk management, as they face significant uncertainties in pricing for long-term contracts [3] Group 3: Challenges in Participation - Shipping industry clients face several challenges in participating in the futures market, including a lack of understanding of financial instruments and the complexities of price fluctuations driven by both supply-demand fundamentals and macroeconomic events [4][5] - There is a need for futures companies to provide more training and educational resources to help shipping enterprises build a solid understanding of hedging strategies [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The futures market for the container shipping index (European route) is expected to see a diversification of hedging participants and the development of new hedging models, including non-traditional over-the-counter hedging options [6] - Increased participation from shipowners and the potential for shipping companies to engage in futures for price risk management is anticipated as awareness of the futures market grows [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The listing of pure benzene futures and options on July 8 provides enhanced risk management tools for the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, which is crucial given China's position as the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene globally [1][2]. Industry Overview - China accounts for 39% of global pure benzene production capacity and 43% of apparent consumption in 2024, with East China being the largest production and consumption area [1]. - The production capacity concentration in China is moderate, with the top three companies holding nearly 40% of the market share, where Sinopec alone accounts for 17.6% [2]. Pricing and Sales Mechanisms - Different scale refineries have varying sales methods for pure benzene, with large refineries primarily using contracts and pricing based on Sinopec's East China price [2]. - Trade enterprises often reference prices from sources like Argus and Platts for their pure benzene procurement, with imports mainly from South Korea and Southeast Asia [3]. Market Conditions and Outlook - The pure benzene market is currently experiencing a downturn due to insufficient downstream demand, but a supply-demand increase is expected in the second half of the year with over 1 million tons of new capacity planned [7]. - Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene have risen to higher levels this year, with expectations of a de-inventory trend in August, followed by a potential accumulation in September and October [8]. Production and Operational Insights - The production processes for pure benzene are diverse, with catalytic reforming and ethylene cracking being the most significant methods [5]. - Maintenance cycles for pure benzene facilities typically occur every three years, with minor repairs having a limited impact on the market [6]. Futures Market Participation - Companies are increasingly engaging in futures trading for hedging purposes, with a notable number of enterprises participating in the pure benzene futures market [11]. - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options has enriched the risk management tools available to industry players, enhancing market liquidity [12].

Core Points - The company establishes a management system for futures hedging to regulate its operations and mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in raw materials and finished products [1][2][3] - The primary goal of the futures hedging business is to control risks related to the rising costs of major commodities and to protect profit margins during the order-to-revenue confirmation period [2][3] - The company emphasizes that futures trading should only be for hedging purposes and prohibits speculative trading [1][2] Group 1: General Principles - The company is limited to conducting hedging transactions in domestic futures exchanges and must not engage in off-market trading [1][2] - The hedging positions must align with the company's operational timelines and the types and scales of the underlying assets [2][3] - The company must maintain sufficient self-owned funds to match the margin requirements for hedging and cannot use raised funds for this purpose [1][2][3] Group 2: Organizational Structure - A dedicated hedging working group is established, comprising decision-making, risk control, and operational teams to oversee the hedging activities [3][4] - The decision-making team is responsible for determining whether to operate new futures contracts based on sales orders and production plans [4] - The risk control team evaluates the reasonableness of existing positions and assesses market liquidity risks [4] Group 3: Decision Authorization - The company must prepare feasibility analysis reports for hedging activities and submit them for board approval [5][6] - If the trading frequency and time constraints make it difficult to follow the approval process for each transaction, the company can estimate the scope and limits of futures trading for the next 12 months [5][6] - The hedging working group is authorized to execute daily operations within the approved limits [5][6] Group 4: Operational Execution - The company must adhere to strict operational procedures for futures hedging, ensuring that all departments comply with trading instructions [22][23] - The trading strategy must be developed based on market analysis and forecasts, with regular updates to the decision-making team [24][25] - After trading, the company must either close the futures positions or proceed with physical delivery as per the trading instructions [25][26] Group 5: Risk Management - A robust risk management system is established to prevent, identify, and mitigate risks associated with futures trading [29][30] - The risk control team is responsible for timely risk assessments, including funding risks and price fluctuation risks [31][32] - Internal reporting and risk handling procedures are in place to address significant market fluctuations and compliance issues [33][34] Group 6: Other Management Matters - The company must disclose any significant losses or gains related to futures trading that exceed specified thresholds [41][42] - All trading documents and records must be maintained for at least 10 years, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [43][44] - The management system will be enforced strictly, with penalties for violations [45][46]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a comprehensive management system for futures hedging to mitigate price risks associated with raw material procurement, ensuring the protection of the company's and shareholders' interests [1][2]. Group 1: General Principles - The hedging activities are strictly limited to the company's operational needs and must not involve speculation or third-party transactions [1][2]. - Futures trading must occur only in the exchange market, and the hedging quantity should not exceed the actual procurement amount [1][2]. - The company is required to maintain a hedging time frame that aligns with the pricing period of the underlying contracts [1][2]. Group 2: Organizational Structure and Responsibilities - The board of directors authorizes the general manager to establish a futures hedging working group, which includes key executives responsible for implementing the hedging strategy [2][3]. - The working group is tasked with reporting the previous year's hedging activities and submitting the current year's hedging plan to the board [2][3]. - The supply chain center is responsible for executing the hedging operations and managing the procurement of raw materials [3][4]. Group 3: Trading Process - The marketing management center is responsible for archiving relevant project documents and preparing raw material demand forms for the hedging working group [3][4]. - The hedging working group determines the futures buy quantity based on project requirements and market conditions [4]. - The supply chain center must submit funding requests for hedging operations, which are then processed by the finance department [4][5]. Group 4: Risk Management - The company employs various risk control measures to prevent and mitigate risks associated with futures hedging [5][6]. - Regular audits and checks are conducted to ensure compliance with risk management policies and procedures [5][6]. - The hedging operations must align with the physical contracts in terms of quantity and timing [5][6]. Group 5: Reporting and Documentation - Hedging operators are required to submit monthly reports detailing the status of hedging activities, including new positions and overall performance [6][8]. - All documentation related to hedging activities must be preserved for at least ten years, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [8][9]. Group 6: Confidentiality and Compliance - All personnel involved in futures trading must adhere to strict confidentiality protocols regarding hedging information [10][11]. - The company conducts annual evaluations of its futures brokerage firms, allowing for replacements if they do not meet performance standards [13].

Core Viewpoint - Daon Group has established itself as a leading enterprise in the new materials sector in China, particularly in rubber, plastics, and chemical new materials, with a sales revenue of approximately 47.9 billion yuan in 2024 and a brand value exceeding 16 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Daon Group was founded in 1991 and is located in Longkou Economic Development Zone, Yantai City, Shandong Province [1] - The company has become a key player in the plastic industry, with its production and sales being a high-growth business segment [1] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - The company has developed practical strategies to address price volatility in raw materials, including "cost locking," "pricing gauge," and "inventory slimming" [3] - "Cost locking" involves using futures contracts to hedge against price fluctuations in raw materials or products [3] - "Pricing gauge" allows the company to set reasonable procurement and sales prices based on futures market trends [3] - "Inventory slimming" helps manage stock levels and reduce capital occupation through various methods, including pre-sale pricing and futures hedging [3] Group 3: Response to Market Conditions - Daon Chemical, a subsidiary, has been responsible for the company's futures operations, managing risks associated with fluctuating raw material prices [2] - The company faced challenges in determining reasonable inventory levels due to the volatility of commodity prices, which can impact production costs and profit margins [2] Group 4: Case Study During the Pandemic - In 2020, Daon Group played a significant role in the supply chain for medical mask materials, particularly PP, during the pandemic [4] - The company implemented a pricing model that balanced the interests of upstream and downstream partners, ensuring stable supply and pricing [4][5] Group 5: Futures Market Participation - Daon Chemical has actively engaged in the futures market, providing risk management solutions to its partners through options trading [6][7] - In October 2021, the company executed multiple options trades to stabilize prices for upstream and downstream partners, enhancing their competitive positions [7][8] - The company has established a stable pricing model based on futures prices, integrating futures tools into its operational framework to mitigate price volatility risks [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in the second half of the year, with prices likely to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, supported by the full cost of high - cost regions (3000 - 3150). The trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with a price range of 20300 - 21000. There is upward momentum in the medium term as the peak season approaches and there are expectations of a Fed rate cut [4]. - The cast aluminum alloy market has strong cost support from scrap aluminum, but demand is weakening. The futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 3240 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.74%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 90.74% [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20715 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.86%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.99% [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20140 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19500 - 20300 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.83%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.50% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 3100 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20200 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19800 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis of Each Product - **Alumina** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation is weak, with high domestic operating capacity, incoming imported alumina, and expected new production capacity release in the second half of the year. The market trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Bullish factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Bearish factors: High operating capacity, rigid demand without increment, and increasing inventory [2][9]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation has little change, with inventory accumulation not over yet. The price has limited downside space in the short term and may rise in the medium term [4]. - Bullish factors: Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and approaching peak season [4]. - Bearish factors: Decreasing terminal factory orders, slightly lower downstream operating rates, and increasing social inventory [10]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - Core contradiction: Scrap aluminum prices are high, providing cost support, but demand is weakening. The futures price follows Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors: High scrap aluminum prices and potential reduction in scrap aluminum imports [5]. - Bearish factors: Weakening demand expectations and serious over - capacity in the industry [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures contracts, as well as LME aluminum prices, are provided [8][11]. - **Spread data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of spreads between different contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, as well as the ratio of aluminum main contract to alumina main contract, are provided [15]. 3.5 Import Profit and Loss - The latest import profit and loss data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, along with their daily changes and daily change rates, are provided [24]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **Warehouse receipt data**: The latest warehouse receipt data for Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina, including regional breakdowns, are provided [30]. - **Inventory data**: Seasonal inventory data for aluminum ingots in three regions, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts are provided [30][33][35].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel: Intraday Correction of Previous Gains, Risk Management Daily Report on August 14 - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [1] 1. Price Range Forecast 1.1. Nickel - Price Range: 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 15.17% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 3.2% [2] 1.2. Stainless Steel - Price Range: 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton - Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 9.27% - Current Volatility Historical Percentile: 1.8% [2] 2. Risk Management Strategies 2.1. Nickel 2.1.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell Shanghai nickel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell NI main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [2] 2.1.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month NI contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [2] 2.2. Stainless Steel 2.2.1. Inventory Management - Strategy 1: Short sell stainless steel futures based on inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline; sell SS main contract with a 60% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 - Strategy 2: Sell call options; sell over-the-counter/on-exchange options with a 50% hedging ratio and a strategy level of 2 [3] 2.2.2. Procurement Management - Strategy 1: Buy stainless steel forward contracts according to production plan to lock in production costs in advance; buy far-month SS contracts and sell put options - Strategy 2: Buy out-of-the-money call options; buy over-the-counter/on-exchange options [3] 3. Core Contradictions - Intraday, Shanghai nickel showed a weak and volatile trend with no obvious changes in fundamentals. Nickel ore arrival inventory remained at a high level, and the bottom support was loosening, with a clear situation of strong supply and weak demand. Nickel iron remained firm intraday, with strong price support willingness from the supply side, but the actual acceptance of steel mills remained to be considered. The new energy chain salt plants had some support recently, with increased demand from some downstream precursor plants and relatively stable transactions. Stainless steel also corrected its previous gains intraday, and attention should be paid to whether it can stabilize above 13,000 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the previous follow-up increase in transactions was poor, and there was a certain downward adjustment at present. The expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August continued. Macroscopically, the subsequent trend of the US dollar index can be monitored [4] 4. Market Analysis 4.1. Bullish Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel [6] 4.2. Bearish Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off-season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow - Pure nickel inventory is high - Seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, with loosening bottom support - Sino-US tariff disturbances still exist - South Korea plans to impose anti-dumping duties on China's hot-rolled products [6] 5. Market Data 5.1. Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 121,200 | -1,140 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 1 | 121,200 | -1,140 | -0.93% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 2 | 121,340 | -1,130 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous Contract 3 | 121,530 | -1,140 | -0.92% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | -120 | -0.93% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 102,257 | 12,747 | 14.24% | lots | | Open Interest | 66,437 | -4,493 | -6.33% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 20,720 | 142 | 0.69% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | -660 | 620 | -48.4% | yuan/ton | [6] 5.2. Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 13,025 | -105 | -1% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 1 | 12,945 | -100 | -0.77% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 2 | 13,025 | -105 | -0.80% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous Contract 3 | 13,090 | -95 | -0.72% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 160,562 | 238 | 0.15% | lots | | Open Interest | 135,237 | -8,989 | -6.23% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 103,521 | 3 | 0.00% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 340 | 70 | 25.93% | yuan/ton | [7] 6. Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value (tons) | Change from Previous Period (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory | 40,572 | 1,086 | | LME Nickel Inventory | 211,140 | 42 | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 954 | -12.2 | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 33,415 | 182 | [8]