2026.02. 08 本文字数：3457，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 王方然 近日，黄金市场的剧烈波动，持续牵动着每一位投资者的神经。伦敦金现在1月底触及阶段性高点后 出现大幅回调，随后转入持续震荡。 在这轮罕见的大起大落中，市场参与者的行动也呈现出显著的分化：一边是部分机构与个人果断高位 套现，另一边是仍有大量投资者紧握黄金资产坚定看涨。 当波动渐成常态，投资者的心态正经历怎样的变化？面对日益复杂且情绪化的黄金市场，他们如何形 成认知、作出决策，并承担随之而来的结果？ 第一财经记者深度对话了多位投入重金的投资者，记 录下他们的真实轨迹与心路历程。 套现、坚守、深陷 近期，金价如坐"过山车"。伦敦金现自1月29日触及每盎司5598美元的阶段性高点后，接连遭遇重 挫，次日暴跌9.25%，2月2日再跌4.52%，一度下探至4402美元，近期则在5000美元关口下方起伏 不定。将时间线拉长，这场波动显得更为汹涌。自2025年8月以来，金价累计涨幅已逼近50%。剧烈 震荡之中，有人选择落袋为安，有人选择坚守，也有人被套牢在波峰。 在浙江从事资管行业的阿诚（化名），去年末至今年初悄然调整了他的仓位：陆续减 ...

来源：青岛财经日报 1月31日凌晨，现货白银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过 12%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，创出40年来单日最大跌幅。 看空者如知名投行花旗认为，全球黄金配置占GDP比例已经飙升至0.7%，达到近55年来最高水平。黄 金配置占GDP的常态比例为0.35%-0.4%。如果回归常态水平，金价将面临腰斩的调整风险，对应本轮行 情高点，回落目标区间为2500-3000美元/盎司。 中长期逻辑阶段性失效 两家机构的分歧集中在长期买盘是否仍然充裕。从目前的公开信息看，今年1月黄金买盘力量刷新纪 录。根据世界黄金协会数据，1月黄金ETF的买入量达到190亿美元，全球黄金ETF管理资产（AUM）达 到6690亿美元，环比增长20%。来自北美和亚洲的买盘是推动黄金上涨的最主要力量，前者创下了有史 以来第二高的月度流入量，后者创历史最大规模流入纪录。中国人民银行数据显示，1月末中国央行黄 金储备7419万盎司，连续15个月增持黄金。 但问题在于，创纪录的买盘恰好对应创纪录的下跌，符合金融资产天量见天价的一般规律。同时，各国 央行等多头主力在下跌中究竟是逢低吸纳，还是进行了减 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, leading to diverse strategies among investors, with some cashing out while others remain bullish on gold assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Volatility - Gold prices have fluctuated dramatically, reaching a peak of $5,598 per ounce on January 29, 2025, before experiencing a sharp decline, including a 9.25% drop the following day and a further 4.52% drop on February 2, 2025, eventually dipping below $4,402 [2]. - Since August 2025, gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of nearly 50% [2]. Group 2: Investor Strategies - Investors are adopting varied strategies in response to market conditions: some are liquidating their positions, while others are holding onto their investments [2][6]. - A notable investor, referred to as A Cheng, adjusted his portfolio by reducing holdings in gold and silver ETFs while retaining some physical gold, having initially invested in gold after selling a property in 2023 [2][3]. - Another investor, Li Yun, has been purchasing gold bars for his children since 2020, and despite some profit-taking, he remains optimistic about gold's long-term value [3][6]. Group 3: Performance Outcomes - Long-term holders of gold have generally seen substantial profits, with A Cheng reporting an overall return of nearly 80% and profits exceeding 600,000 yuan [6]. - Conversely, investors engaging in short-term trading or using leverage, such as Qian Qian, have faced significant losses, including a complete loss of initial capital and subsequent debt accumulation [7]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - A Cheng maintains a positive long-term outlook for gold, suggesting it can provide a 6% to 8% return, although he notes that the appeal of new opportunities has diminished [8]. - Li Yun believes there is still room for gold price increases but is cautious about adding to his position at current high levels [9]. - Analysts predict that while short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing shifts in global monetary policy [10].

政策层面的变化同样是2026年不可忽视的重要变量。"十五五"规划进入开局阶段，稳增长、调结构、促 转型的政策思路更加清晰，宏观政策在节奏和力度上保持相对稳定，为市场提供了可预期的环境。财政 政策与产业政策的协同，有助于稳定经济基本面，也对企业盈利形成托底效应。在此背景下，全年通胀 运行的"斜率"成为影响市场高度的重要因素，既关系到政策取向，也影响投资者对估值中枢的判断。众 赢财富通认为，只要通胀保持温和上行，政策空间仍然充足，资本市场整体环境将维持偏友好的状态。 从外部环境看，全球主要经济体仍处在财政与信用周期相对宽松的阶段，美元在高利率周期后逐步走弱 的趋势愈发明显。在这一过程中，全球流动性边际改善，有助于提升非美元资产的配置吸引力。人民币 资产在估值、经济韧性和产业结构等方面具备相对优势，正在重新进入全球与国内投资者的配置视野。 众赢财富通研究发现，在弱美元与全球信用扩张共振的情形下，人民币资产更容易获得中长期配置资金 的关注，这种趋势并非短期交易行为，而是宏观环境变化下的结构性结果。 与此同时，国内金融环境的变化正在深刻影响资金流向。低利率状态延续，使得传统固定收益类资产的 回报空间受到压缩，部分资金开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the growing importance of "Fixed Income + Funds" in the current low-interest-rate environment, highlighting their rapid growth and appeal to investors seeking stable returns amidst market volatility [4][6][8]. Group 1: Market Context - By the end of 2025, the scale of Fixed Income + Funds is projected to reach 2.48 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46.69%, reflecting the demand for stable and low-volatility assets from both individual and institutional investors [4]. - Traditional investment products like time deposits and money market funds are yielding lower returns, failing to meet investors' needs for stable asset appreciation [6]. - The Fixed Income + strategy combines bond assets as a base with selected equity assets to enhance returns, offering a better risk-return profile compared to pure bond or equity funds [7]. Group 2: Demand and Definition - The rapid growth of Fixed Income + Funds indicates a strong market demand for assets that balance risk and return in a low-interest-rate and volatile market environment [8]. - Currently, there is no clear definition for Fixed Income + Funds, but they are generally understood to involve pure bond assets with equity allocations between 5% and 30% [9]. Group 3: Fund Classification and Selection - Fixed Income + Funds can be categorized based on their equity asset allocation: low-wave products (equity < 10%), medium-wave products (equity 10%-20%), and high-wave products (equity 20%-30%) [13]. - To select high-performing Fixed Income + Funds, four core indicators are recommended: annualized volatility, maximum drawdown since inception, equity allocation ratio, and the Calmar ratio [17][19]. - Specific criteria for selecting low, medium, and high-wave performance funds are outlined, focusing on maintaining low volatility and drawdown while achieving a high Calmar ratio [21][22].

Group 1 - The article discusses a new policy signed by Trump imposing a 25% "toll" on AI chips, which is expected to generate $264 billion annually for the U.S. government [1] - The policy distorts international trade, forcing companies like TSMC to reroute shipments of high-end chips, such as Nvidia's H200 and AMD's MI325X, through the U.S. to pay the toll [5] - The burden of the tariff primarily falls on U.S. importers, with 92% of the costs ultimately borne by them, leading to increased prices for AI startups [7] Group 2 - China's response to the U.S. policy has been strategic and measured, resulting in a significant reduction of approximately $70 billion in U.S. Treasury holdings by the end of November 2025 [11][13] - In November 2025 alone, China sold $6.1 billion in U.S. debt, marking the largest sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a shift towards risk isolation [13] - China's gold reserves have increased to 74.12 million ounces, as the country shifts from dollar assets to gold, which is seen as a more stable store of value [15] Group 3 - The article highlights a significant increase in China's domestic AI chip market share from 12% to 27% by 2025, indicating a fundamental shift in the industry [20] - Companies like BYD and Xpeng are actively consolidating their positions in the market, with BYD acquiring Jabil's operations in Chengdu and Wuxi for $15.8 billion [20][22] - The U.S. semiconductor industry has seen a 28% decline in new investments, while Southeast Asia and Europe have experienced growth of 42% and 31%, respectively, indicating a shift in capital flows [22][24] Group 4 - The article argues that the U.S. attempts to manipulate the market through tariffs are pushing allies towards competitors and driving capital out of the country [24] - China's strategy in the photovoltaic sector includes maintaining high anti-dumping tariffs on U.S. polysilicon, aimed at securing control over upstream resources [24] - The narrative concludes that attempts to artificially segment the global market will ultimately backfire, emphasizing the importance of internal strength and open cooperation over trade barriers [26]

Group 1 - The market for gold has experienced extreme volatility, with prices recently peaking at $5,600 per ounce before a dramatic drop of over 9% in a single day, reflecting divided market sentiment [1][3] - The forces driving gold prices upward remain intact, overshadowed temporarily by profit-taking waves, with central bank gold purchases and the ongoing de-dollarization process supporting long-term value [3][5] - Current market dynamics involve a struggle between speculative fund withdrawals and long-term capital positioning, with domestic gold-themed ETFs seeing a reduction of approximately 42.7 billion yuan, although net redemptions were relatively moderate [3][4] Group 2 - The silver market has shown even more volatility, the most significant since 1980, with its industrial and speculative attributes making it more sensitive to monetary policy and market sentiment changes [4] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach to silver investments, waiting for speculative sentiment to fully release before making decisions based on fundamentals [4] - For asset allocation, it is generally recommended that gold constitutes 5-10% of total household assets, which can be increased to 15% in uncertain market conditions to serve as a hedge against inflation [4] Group 3 - Future gold price movements will depend on multiple factors, with UBS providing scenario-based forecasts of $7,200 per ounce in a bullish scenario and $4,600 per ounce in a bearish scenario, reflecting current market uncertainty [5] - The essence of the gold market is a confidence game, where gold's appeal as a hard currency increases when fiat currency credibility wanes, positioning gold as a strategic asset against currency devaluation risks [5] - The market's volatility presents opportunities for prepared investors, with each pullback potentially serving as a long-term investment window, emphasizing the importance of patience and discipline over chasing short-term price differences [5]

市场在金价巨震中分化：有人获利离场，有人却逆势加仓。狂 热的背后，是一个被多数人忽略的巨变：黄金，已从印象中稳 健的"避风港"，转变为一场高波动的"风险游戏"。 作者：陈植 封图：本报资料室 2月6日早上8点，在上海徐家汇天钥桥路的一家金店里，店主赵乐已早早守候。他正在等待一批特 殊的"回头客"——2月2日，他以1095元/克的价格向这些客户出售300克投资金条。随着金价在 史诗级大跌后迅猛反弹，这批金条在短短两天内账面"升值"约4万元。惊喜之下，客户们毫不犹豫 地决定：再追投300克。 从业多年的赵乐还从未经历过当下这般疯狂的黄金行情。 2026年以来，黄金市场演绎出过山车般的轨迹：COMEX黄金期货价格持续凌厉上涨，1月29日 一度触及5626美元/盎司历史新高，月内最高涨幅近30%；次日金价却掉头向下，恐慌性暴跌 9.25%；2月2日，黄金期货价格继续下挫1.35%。国内黄金期货价格、黄金概念股票和基金品种 全线大跌。 市场在金价巨震中分化：有人获利离场，有人却逆势加仓。 赵乐发现，1月30日以来，希望购买金条的回头客明显增多了，而且是越跌越买。2月3日，黄金 价格上演"V型"反转，涨幅达到6.83%。 ...

Core Insights - The banking sector is shifting from single product sales to comprehensive wealth management solutions, driven by declining interest rates and increasing competition [3][4] - Financial institutions are focusing on customized financial products to meet diverse customer needs, particularly in the context of year-end bonuses [2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Banks are introducing tailored financial strategies to cater to different risk appetites, emphasizing low-risk investment products like fixed-income and "fixed income plus" offerings [1][2] - The demand for low-volatility, fixed-income products is rising, aligning with customer preferences for stable value growth [6] Group 2: Strategic Shifts - The transition to comprehensive wealth management is a response to pressures from both market conditions and operational challenges, including narrowing net interest margins and intensified competition from various financial service providers [4][3] - The regulatory environment is pushing banks to enhance their service offerings and ensure responsible selling practices, particularly in light of the shift towards net value products [4] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a defensive asset allocation strategy, focusing on liquidity management and diversification to mitigate risks associated with volatile assets [5][7] - A three-step approach for year-end financial planning is suggested: clarify fund usage, assess risk tolerance, and select appropriate financial products [5][6]

新华财经上海2月6日电在利率长期低位运行、信用利差持续收窄的背景下，传统"持有收息"策略正面临 收益瓶颈。贝莱德中国近日在2026年投资展望分享会上明确指出，固收投资已进入"窄幅走廊+多元工 具"并行的新阶段。 境内债市步入"上有顶、下有底"的震荡走廊 贝莱德基金首席资金官王登峰表示，2026年债券市场大概率延续区间震荡格局。"当前10年期国债收益 率整体窄幅波动，上有经济企稳预期压制，下有央行维持适度宽松托底，形成典型的'窄幅走廊'。" 他认为，当前存款仍是国内居民最主要的配置选择。即便利率下行，大部分资金仍倾向于留在银行体 系，或转向低风险、低波动的现金管理类产品，这为理财产品提供了发展空间。 近两年来，低利率环境成为市场共识，传统的票息策略难以获得理想的超额收益。面对票息收益持续下 行，贝莱德基金权益、量化及多资产首席投资官王晓京强调，固收投资正从被动持有转向主动管理。在 当前低利率环境下，固收投资者需开发新的回报来源或策略，尽量减少对债券低收益率的依赖。从实际 操作看，现阶段主要在股票和利率债两端寻找收益机会。 王晓京指出，当前市场最大的特征是"不确定性常态化"，传统股债负相关性正在弱化，单纯依赖静态 ...