证 券 研 究 报 告 外资继续流入中国 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20250912-20250919) www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 本周(20250912-20250919) 本周美联储如期降息25BPs符合市场预期，这也是美联储继2024年12月之后，时隔9个月再次宣布降息。鲍威尔表示，美国失业率维持在低位但略有上升。 通胀近期有所上升，仍处于略高水平。美国通胀风险上行，就业风险下行。得益于美联储的降息行动，本周发达和新兴股市均有不错表现，恒生科技领涨全球。1）固收方面，10Y美债 收益率上行8BPs至4.14%，美元指数保持基本稳定，当前点位为97.7，仍位于100以下；2）权益方面，得益于美联储的降息行动，本周发达和新兴股市均有不错表现，恒生科技上涨 5.1%，领涨全球。全球市场中，多数国家和地区的主要股指收涨，巴西和韩国股市涨幅明显；3）商品方面，美联储降息25BPs在市场预期之内，本周原油和黄金保持基本稳定，其中原 油下跌1.24%，黄金上涨1.05%。 ◼ 截止到2025/9/18，过去一周来看，内资和外资均大幅流入中国股市；海外资金主动和被动方面，海外主动基金过 ...

屈颖分析认为，黄金挂钩理财产品频繁出现因触发条件而提前止盈的现象，既体现了产品设计中的风险 控制机制，也反映出机构对后市波动的审慎判断。这种提前止盈现象具有阶段性特征。一方面，在金价 处于高位并伴随较大波动的情况下，理财机构通过触发止盈机制锁定收益，有助于保护投资者利益并维 持产品收益的相对稳定；另一方面，由于不同产品的设计结构、挂钩方式及触发阈值存在差异，并非所 有黄金挂钩理财都会提前止盈。总体来看，在高波动环境下，这种现象可能在短期内较为频繁，投资者 在配置时仍需关注产品条款细则及自身风险承受能力，合理规划投资策略。 发行提速创新多 近期，国际金价持续走强，连续多日站稳3600美元/盎司上方。在此背景下，挂钩黄金的理财产品市场 迅速回暖，产品平均收益表现亮眼，新发数量与规模也显著提升。业内人士指出，理财机构及投资者对 黄金资产的关注度持续升温，通过跨市场配置黄金，不仅能提升资产分散性，更能有效把握金价上行的 红利，增厚组合收益。 金价屡创新高 年初至今，伦敦现货黄金累计涨幅已接近40%，成为全球资产配置中的一大亮点。普益标准研究员屈颖 分析认为，本轮金价上涨的逻辑清晰，主要体现在宏观货币环境、新兴市场储备 ...

上交所投教大讲 上海信春交易所 投资者教育基地 券投资者教 RONG SECURITIES INVESTOR FI tB 发生理 AD 《善用资产配置 践行! 主办单位:上海证券交易所 内蒙古证监 承办单位:国融证券投资者教育基地 支持单位:内蒙古证券期货业协会 TI TI TIM 在 上海 给本 文 为 所 上海证明文明所 念 国政证券投资者教育基地 C 全 全 教 育 登 地 tBO 上交所投教大讲堂第 73 期 IESI 券股 資顾同 5007062107006 演讲主题 《善用资产配置 践行理性投资》 主办单位：上海证券交易所 内蒙古证监局 国融证券股份有限公司 承办单位:国融证券投资者教育基地 全景投教基地 支持单位:内蒙古证券期货业协会 ...

从投资角度看，茅台确实有一些独特优势。高端白酒毛利率普遍很高，且产品保质期长、无需频繁迭代，现金流稳定。茅台还具有品牌壁垒与社交属性， 承载文化符号和社交价值，头部品牌通过历史积淀形成不可复制的品牌溢价。茅台的品牌价值连续多年位居中国酒业榜首，远超第二名。 茅台价格短期内仍面临下跌压力，受库存去化、政策压制及消费淡季影响，茅台批发价和零售价可能继续探底，有望跌破茅台的市场指导价1499元，甚至 直逼出厂价1169元。未来的一两年时间，若消费复苏不及预期，茅台价格或维持低位震荡；若经济回暖，茅台价格有望回升。 9月17日，酒类行情监测平台茅系管家数据显示，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发参考价报1770元，较前一日下跌10元，再创上市以来的新低；原箱 报1790元，与前一日持平，但价格同样创出新低。 面对茅台价格下跌，很多消费者和投资者都在思考：现在是买入的好时机吗？茅台酒作为资产配置的一部分是否还有价值？ 在贵州茅台2025年半年度业绩说明会上，董事王莉在回应价格下跌时表示，公司坚持长期主义，"以自身的确定性应对各种不确定性"，并采取优化市场策 略、精准投放产品等措施维持市场平稳。她表示，8月以来终 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking the seventh cut since March 2023, which is expected to drive global capital out of the dollar and into new investment opportunities [1] - The Chinese government has removed restrictions on foreign investment in real estate to attract foreign capital and boost market confidence, particularly in core assets of first-tier cities [2] - The financing environment for domestic real estate companies is expected to improve, leading to lower loan rates for homebuyers and potentially increasing demand from first-time buyers [2] Group 2 - Asset allocation is emphasized as a wise choice in the current market, with a focus on selecting high-quality properties that can withstand risks and economic fluctuations [3] - The importance of choosing the right location and developer is highlighted, with recommendations to target well-planned areas with mature amenities [3][5] - The "Zhu Xinzhuang" area is identified as a prime location for investment, with specific projects from China Overseas being recommended [6] Group 3 - The "Future Realm" project has seen strong sales, with over 90 units signed within 50 days, indicating high demand for larger units [8] - The project’s amenities, including a neighborhood center designed to reduce costs for residents while maintaining quality, are noted as a competitive advantage [13] - The design and functionality of the units, particularly the 129 square meter four-bedroom layout, have been well-received, reflecting a shift in buyer preferences towards larger, quality assets [15][17] Group 4 - The project features advanced home technology and thoughtful design details, such as a dual-flow fresh air system and ample storage solutions, which enhance the living experience [20][21][22] - The focus on customer needs and pain points in the design process is emphasized, showcasing the project's commitment to quality and practicality [30][31] - The overall strength of the project is attributed to its location, amenities, and the developer's ability to deliver high-quality products that meet market demands [31]

Group 1: Impact on Housing Market - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is expected to reduce mortgage rates in China, benefiting existing homeowners by lowering monthly payments [3] - New homebuyers may also enjoy lower borrowing costs due to a more accommodative monetary environment, leading to decreased home purchase costs [3] Group 2: Investment Market Changes - The decline in interest rates is likely to result in lower yields for fixed-income products such as bank deposits and money market funds, making them less attractive [3][4] - Investors face a dilemma of either accepting lower yields or taking on more risk for higher returns, prompting recommendations for longer investment horizons and diversified asset allocation [4] Group 3: Employment Market Effects - Lower financing costs for businesses may lead to increased investment and hiring, positively impacting the job market, especially in export-related sectors [4] - Growth sectors like technology may also benefit from improved liquidity, potentially expanding their recruitment efforts [4] Group 4: Currency and International Spending - The Fed's rate cut could lead to a depreciation of the dollar, making overseas spending cheaper for consumers, including those studying abroad or shopping online [6] - However, there is a risk of dollar appreciation if the market anticipates overheating in the U.S. economy, suggesting a cautious approach to currency exchange [6] Group 5: Inflation Considerations - While increased liquidity from rate cuts could raise price levels, the current domestic market conditions in China suggest that inflationary pressures remain manageable [8] - The overall price stability is expected to continue, alleviating concerns about significant inflation spikes [8] Group 6: Consumer Strategies - Homeowners should monitor changes in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and consider negotiating repayment terms with banks if necessary [10] - Investors are advised to balance risk and return, while job seekers should focus on opportunities in export and growth sectors [10] - Consumers should remain rational in their spending habits and avoid panic buying due to inflation fears [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the wealth management industry in China, emphasizing the shift from a product-selling model to a client-centered approach in the era of buyer wealth management [1][4]. Group 1: Buyer Thinking Evaluation Standards - The core evaluation standard for determining whether an institution or advisor possesses buyer thinking is based on the revenue model, specifically focusing on "earning retention fees" rather than "sales commissions" [6][8]. - Institutions must prioritize customer interests and provide value through quality service and stable returns to encourage long-term product holding [8][10]. - The recognition of the buyer fee model by clients is crucial for the transformation process, as many still prefer traditional commission-based structures [10][12]. Group 2: Challenges and Breakthroughs in Transformation - The necessity for transformation is driven by declining commission levels and changing client demands for sustainable returns through professional investment [16][17]. - Institutions must overcome the "license dependency" mindset and create real, sustainable value for clients to gain their trust and loyalty [17][18]. - A successful transformation requires a collaborative approach involving consensus on direction, a buyer-oriented assessment system, and a focus on professional service [18][19]. Group 3: Importance of Asset Allocation Services - Asset allocation is highlighted as a critical component of wealth management, with a focus on long-term returns [20][21]. - Institutions need to enhance their asset allocation capabilities by expanding product offerings, developing core methodologies, and ensuring effective communication of strategies to clients [21][22]. Group 4: Building Differentiated Competitive Advantages - To establish core competitiveness, firms must have clear strategic insights and maintain a long-term commitment to building unique services and brands [23][24]. - Collaboration across departments and a focus on customer needs are essential for creating a service-oriented culture [24][25]. - Transparency and clear communication of product risks and benefits are vital to addressing information asymmetry in the wealth management industry [25].

（来源：今日金价行情） 瑞士海关最新数据显示，2025年8月瑞士对中国的黄金出口环比暴增逾三倍，从7月的9.9吨跃升至35吨，增幅 高达253%，创下2024年5月以来新高。与之形成对比的是，瑞士对美国的黄金出口几近停滞，仅0.3吨，环比 大降99%，凸显全球黄金流向的加速转移。与此同时，受避险需求与债务风险推动，今年金价已飙升38%， 多位华尔街投资大佬齐声看多，呼吁投资者加大黄金配置。 瑞士黄金出口版图重塑：亚洲需求爆发 瑞士是全球最大的黄金精炼与转口贸易中心，其黄金流向变化常被视为全球需求风向标。8月数据表明： 对中国出口35吨，环比猛增253%； 对印度出口15.2吨，环比增长12.6%； 对美国出口仅0.3吨，环比骤降99%。 此前，美国突如其来的关税政策扰乱了市场。7月31日，美国海关致函宣布，将瑞士1公斤和100盎司金条纳入 需缴关税的类别，税率高达39%，为特朗普政府施加的最高关税之一。虽然9月初黄金关税豁免才正式落实， 但8月出口已遭重创。 与此同时，亚洲需求强劲上扬。尤其是中国市场，在居民财富配置多元化、央行持续增持、人民币汇率波动 的背景下，实物黄金购买力明显提升。 金价劲升38% 有望 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in domestic bank gold bar prices indicate a high-level oscillation, raising concerns among investors about whether this is a stable signal or a prelude to volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Fluctuations - The stability of international gold prices serves as a crucial support for domestic gold prices, with any changes in the global market directly impacting the local market [2]. - Macroeconomic factors such as fluctuations in the US dollar index, rising global inflation expectations, and stock market volatility continuously influence domestic gold prices [2]. Group 2: Unique Advantages of Gold Bar Investment - Compared to stocks and funds, gold bars present lower risk and are less susceptible to market sentiment fluctuations, making them a reliable investment for those with idle funds [4]. - Gold is recognized as a "hard currency" globally, providing excellent value retention during inflationary periods, thus becoming an essential part of many households' asset allocation [4]. Group 3: Timing and Strategy for Investment - Investors should consider their financial situation and investment horizon when deciding the best time to purchase gold bars, especially during high-level oscillation periods [5]. - It is advised to avoid frequent trading and instead adopt a strategy of holding gold bars for the long term, waiting for price increases or liquidity needs before selling [5]. Group 4: Considerations for Purchasing Gold Bars - When buying gold bars, attention should be paid to the brand and purity, with domestic banks typically offering high-purity gold bars (9999) [6]. - Investors should also consider the weight of the gold bars, as smaller weights offer better liquidity while larger weights may require a higher initial investment [6]. Group 5: Market Volatility Management - Investors should not be overly concerned about the recent price fluctuations between 847 and 855 RMB per gram, as such short-term volatility is normal [8]. - Maintaining a calm approach and focusing on long-term holding can help mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [8]. Group 6: Importance of Mindset in Gold Investment - A stable mindset is crucial for gold bar investment, avoiding daily monitoring and not being swayed by short-term market news [10]. - Understanding the right timing for purchases and sales, along with a well-planned financial strategy, is essential for maximizing the value of gold investments [10].

当华尔街的交易员们紧盯着闪烁的屏幕，期待着美联储降息带来的一波狂欢时，他们感受到的却是深深的困惑，而非预期的兴奋。 9月17日晚，靴子落地，美联储宣布降息25个基点，这本应是市场翘首以盼的利好消息，毕竟，市场已经为此苦等了整整9个月。然而，事与愿 违，股市仅仅是象征性地弹跳了一下，便迅速陷入了沉寂的观望状态。债券市场更是波澜不惊，该涨的没涨，该跌的也纹丝不动。 深入华尔街任何一家大型投行的交易大厅，你都会发现分析师们正眉头紧锁，激烈地探讨着同一个核心问题：这次降息的真正含义是什么？答案 远比表面看起来要复杂得多。 首先，25个基点的降息幅度未能满足市场的预期。考虑到近期疲软的就业数据，许多交易员原本大胆押注美联储会采取更激进的行动，一步到位 降息50个基点。然而，现实却给他们上了一课：央行在政策制定上，永远比你想象的更加保守。 其次，美联储内部的严重分歧加剧了市场的不安情绪。在12名委员中，竟然有人投了反对票，这在过去32年里堪称罕见。更令人惊讶的是，这位 名叫斯蒂芬·米兰的反对者，还是由特朗普亲自提名的"自己人"，但他反对的理由并非降息幅度过大，而是认为降息力度还不够。这种内部裂痕释 放出一个危险的信号：就 ...