Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that effective financing demand is currently insufficient, with social financing maintaining a year-on-year increase primarily due to government bond financing, while credit remains weak due to various factors affecting corporate financing willingness [1][2][4] - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase narrowing to 227.1 billion yuan, supported mainly by direct financing, particularly government bond issuance [2][4] - The M1 growth rate rebounded in May, influenced by a low base effect from the previous year and improved cash flow for enterprises due to government bond issuance [1][8] Group 2 - In May, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease narrowing to 330 billion yuan, indicating a shift in the residential loan sector from a year-on-year increase to a decrease [4][6] - Corporate loans increased by 5.3 trillion yuan, driven by both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans, although bill financing remained weak with a year-on-year decrease [6][8] - The M2 year-on-year growth rate slightly declined to 7.9% in May, while the difference between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed, indicating a stabilization in social financing stock growth at 8.7% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the improvement in financial conditions in May, with social financing increasing by 2.3 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding market expectations, while credit growth remains weak due to demand-side factors [1][7][13]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In May, social financing increased by 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion yuan, slightly above the market average expectation of 2.05 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The total social financing scale for the first five months of 2025 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7]. Credit Analysis - The increase in real credit was 596 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 223.7 billion yuan, indicating a weaker demand side [8]. - The BCI index showed an improvement in the financing environment for enterprises, suggesting that supply conditions may not be weak [8][9]. Corporate Loans - Long-term loans for enterprises increased by 330 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 170 billion yuan, reflecting weak investment in infrastructure and manufacturing [9]. - Short-term loans increased by 230 billion yuan year-on-year, while bill financing decreased by 282.6 billion yuan, indicating a preference for short-term loans due to higher yields [9]. Bond Financing - Corporate bonds increased by 149.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion yuan, likely due to lower deposit rates and increased credit bond financing [10][11]. - Government bonds increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion yuan, reflecting accelerated fiscal implementation [10][11]. Foreign Currency Loans - Foreign currency loans increased by 13.5 billion yuan, marking the first positive growth since March 2024, attributed to a weaker dollar and improved exchange rate expectations [11]. M1 Growth - M1 growth was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in economic conditions [12]. - However, M1 performance remains weak, with a decrease of 230.7 billion yuan in May compared to previous years, influenced by debt replacement and shifts in deposit preferences [12]. Overall Financial Conditions - The article concludes that while supply-side conditions have improved, demand-side expectations remain uncertain, with ongoing impacts from debt replacement affecting financial data [13].

金十数据整理：6月13日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 国内新闻： 5. 央行将于6月16日开展4000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为6个月（182天）。 6. 中国驻以色列使馆提醒在以中国公民加强安全防范。 1. 习近平将出席第二届中国—中亚峰会。 2. 李强主持召开国务院常务会议，听取构建房地产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关情况汇报；研究优 化药品和耗材集采有关举措。 3. 央行：5月末M2同比增长7.9%，M1同比增长2.3%。 4. 中国人民银行：初步统计，2025年5月末社会融资规模存量为426.16万亿元，同比增长8.7%。 7. 市场监管总局：市场监管部门将组织实施电商平台消费品安全与召回共治承诺。 8. 《广州市提振消费专项行动实施方案（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见。 9. 腾讯没有与创始人的家族联系讨论交易，也没有考虑收购Nexon。 10. 深圳放宽市场准入24条特别措施将加快实施。 布伦特原油 2. 伊朗退出与美国的核谈判。 3. 以色列对伊朗的空袭导致油价日内一度飙升13%，布伦特原油实现了自2022年俄乌冲突以来最大日内 涨幅。 4. 泰国普吉机场：印度航空AI379航班收到炸弹威胁，请求紧急降落 ...

信贷同比延续少增。 5月份新增人民币贷款6200亿元，同比少增额收窄至3300亿元。其中，居民部门贷款新增540亿元，同比由多减转为少增217亿元，短期贷款减 少208亿元、中长期贷款增加746亿元，从同比变化来看，居民短贷同比多减额略降至451亿元，中长贷同多增额收窄至232亿元。企业部门贷款增加5300亿元，主要 由中长贷和短贷贡献，票据融资较弱，同比少增额降至2100亿元，从分项来看，企业短贷增加1100亿元，同比由多减转为多增2300亿元，企业中长贷增加3300亿 元，同比少增额继续扩大至1700亿元，票据融资规模增加746亿元，同比少增2826亿元 。 报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stability of broad money supply (M2) growth and the high level of social financing scale growth, driven primarily by government bonds and direct financing measures [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Supply and Financing - As of the end of May, the social financing scale stood at 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1]. - In May, the increment of social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 224.7 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3]. - M2 grew by 7.9% year-on-year, while narrow money (M1) increased by 2.3%, indicating a stable monetary environment [1][10]. Group 2: Government Bonds and Direct Financing - Government bonds were the primary driver for the rapid growth of social financing, with net financing of 6.31 trillion yuan in May, an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for debt replacement has significantly increased, with over 3.8 trillion yuan net financing in the first quarter, which is 2.5 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3][4]. - The issuance of local special bonds also accelerated, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, marking a new high for the year [3]. Group 3: Loan Growth and Structure - From January to May, the total increase in RMB loans was 10.68 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% as of the end of May [7]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 34.42 trillion yuan, growing by 11.6% year-on-year, indicating a strong demand for loans in this segment [7]. - The recent interest rate cuts have positively influenced loan demand, as businesses find borrowing more attractive [7][8]. Group 4: Economic Activity and Market Confidence - The article notes that June typically sees increased economic activity, which is expected to drive up financing demand [11]. - Recent financial support measures have effectively boosted market confidence, leading to a recovery in effective demand within the real economy [11].

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for May indicates a reasonable match with the real economy, with significant growth in social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth outpacing nominal GDP growth, suggesting continued support for the real economy [1][2]. Financial Data Overview - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2]. - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2]. - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [2]. - In the first five months, the increment in social financing was 1.863 trillion yuan, which is 383 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - RMB loans increased by 1.068 trillion yuan in the first five months [2]. Social Financing Growth - In May, the increment in social financing was 229 billion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, primarily driven by government bonds and corporate bonds [3]. - Government bonds were identified as the main factor for the rapid growth in social financing, with special refinancing bonds and local special bonds contributing significantly [3]. - Corporate bond financing also saw an increase, with the average yield on 5-year AAA corporate bonds dropping to 1.97% in May, encouraging companies to issue bonds [3]. M1 Growth and Economic Activity - M1 growth accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The increase in "active money" reflects the effectiveness of recent financial support measures, indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [4]. Loan Growth and Structure - RMB loans increased by 1.068 trillion yuan in the first five months, with a total loan balance of 266.32 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [6]. - The structure of loans shows positive trends, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 11.6% and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing increasing by 8.8% [7]. - The recent interest rate cuts have supported loan demand, with banks reporting increased willingness to borrow due to lower rates [8]. Financial Stability Outlook - Financial growth is expected to remain stable, supported by resilient economic development and effective fiscal policies [11]. - The central bank's recent financial support measures, including rate cuts and liquidity provisions, are anticipated to enhance market confidence and support economic recovery [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the growth of social financing and the stability of monetary supply are crucial for supporting economic recovery, with a notable increase in government bond issuance driving this growth [1][2][8] - As of the end of May, the total social financing scale reached 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, with government bonds being the primary driver of this increase [2][4] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, which have begun to take effect and are expected to maintain liquidity at a reasonable level [1][6][8] Group 2 - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been significant, with over 2 trillion yuan issued in the last quarter of the previous year and more than 1.6 trillion yuan this year, which has helped to replace bank loans and maintain loan growth around 8% [3][6] - The growth of fixed asset investment funding sources, including government bonds, has outpaced other sources, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [4][5] - The trend of bonds substituting loans is evident, with nearly 90% of social financing comprising bonds and loans, indicating a complementary relationship that supports economic stability [2][3] Group 3 - The growth of M1 and M2 money supply indicates a positive trend in liquidity, with M1 growing by 2.3% and M2 by 7.9% as of the end of May, reflecting the effectiveness of recent monetary policies [7][8] - The overall loan balance reached 266.32 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and specific sectors like small and micro enterprises and manufacturing showing even higher growth rates [6][7] - The current economic environment, characterized by active fiscal policies and a resilient economic foundation, is expected to support stable growth in financial totals moving forward [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The April credit data showed a significant decline due to insufficient demand, hidden debt replacement, and seasonal factors, leading to a "smaller month" characteristic. In May, loan issuance is expected to seasonally increase but may still be constrained by a lack of effective demand, resulting in a year-on-year decrease [4][5]. - The report predicts that May's new RMB loans will be around 700 billion, with a growth rate of approximately 7.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the end of April. The overall credit expansion is expected to remain weak due to insufficient effective demand [5][16]. - The report anticipates that the growth of social financing (社融) in May will be stable at around 1.9 trillion, maintaining a growth rate of 8.7%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [14][21]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Outlook - In May, the new RMB loans are expected to be around 700 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion. The credit issuance will show a seasonal rebound but will still be affected by insufficient effective demand [4][5]. - The report highlights that the corporate sector remains the mainstay of credit expansion, while retail lending continues to show weak performance. Corporate medium and long-term loans are expected to support growth, while retail loans are anticipated to remain subdued due to weak consumer demand [5][7]. Social Financing - The report forecasts that social financing will see an addition of approximately 1.9 trillion in May, with a stable growth rate of 8.7%. This stability is largely attributed to the continued issuance of government bonds [14][21]. - The breakdown of social financing indicates that the new RMB loans will contribute around 500 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of about 300 billion. The report also notes a low strength of bill discounting compared to April [15][16]. Monetary Supply - The report expects a slight upward adjustment in M1 growth for May, while M2 growth is anticipated to remain stable at around 7.9% to 8%, similar to the end of April. The growth of M1 is influenced by seasonal factors and the low base effect from the previous year [18][21]. - The report discusses the impact of fiscal deposits on the growth of resident and corporate deposits, indicating that government deposits may exert a certain crowding-out effect on these deposits [19][21].

银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 5 月 19 日 红利仍然是银行的主线，关注银行股投资价值，建议关注招商银行、农业银行。 政府债靠前发力，社融同比多增 4 月社融余额同比增长 8.7%，较上月回升 0.3 个百分点，4 月社融增量 1.16 万亿元，同比多增 1.22 万亿元，略少于万得一致预期 1.26 万亿元。主要支 撑来自政府债、企业债和人民币贷款，同比多增主要来自政府债。 4 月政府债券净融资 9729 万亿元，同比多增 1.07 万亿元。企业直接融资增加 2731 亿元，同比多增 838 亿元。4 月人民币贷款新增 884 亿元，同比少增 2465 亿元。委托贷款和信托贷款合计同比多减 310 亿元：委托贷款略降 2 亿元， 同比少减 91 亿元，信托贷款下降 77 亿元，同比多减 219 亿元，未贴现银票 下降 2794 亿元，同比少减 1696 亿元，贡献同比多增。 信贷需求偏弱，票据高增冲量 4 月人民币贷款新增 2800 亿元，同比少增 4500 亿元，推测或由于"对等关 税"冲击，信贷需求偏弱。 强于大市 4 月金融数据点评 关税冲击影响信贷需求 4 月全口径人民币贷款 ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 4 月金融数据点评：信贷"小月更小" 事件：2025 年 5 月 14 日，央行公布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据。 （1）4 月人民币贷款新增 2800 亿，同比少增 4500 亿。 （2）4 月新增社融 1.16 万亿，同比少减 1.22 万亿，社融存量同比增速较 2025 年 3 月末提升 0.3pct 至 8.7%。 （3）4 月 M2 同比增长 8.0%，环比提升 1pct；新口径 M1 同比增长 1.5%， 环比下滑 0.1pct；M2-M1 增速剪刀差环比扩张 1.1pct 至 6.5%。 点评： 1.三重因素影响下，信贷"小月更小" 作为传统信贷小月，4 月增量回落本是正常现象。但今年 4 月信贷大幅同比 少增，与 3 月信贷超预期同比多增，形成鲜明对比。对于这一现象，我们 认为有以下三点原因： 其一，信贷前置发力导致储备项目透支严重。4 月对公中长贷新增 2500 亿， 远低于 2020-2024 年同期的均值 5115 亿，同比少增 1600 亿。 其二，季末信贷冲量后，季初月份集中到期压力较大。4 月对公短贷新增 -4800 亿，创历史 ...