周二，澳元兑美元汇率呈现上升态势，主要受澳大利亚央行最新公布的12月货币政策会议纪要影响。 市场对美联储可能延续宽松货币政策的预期，同时给美元带来一定压力，进一步助推了澳元的走势。 根据澳大利亚央行会议纪要，委员会成员对当前货币政策是否仍具有足够限制性表示出更多谨慎。 纪要中指出，近期数据显示通胀压力可能比预期更为持久，因此政策制定者认为需要更多时间来评估通胀的持续性。委员会表示将在后续会议中继续评估政 策走势，并注意到重要通胀数据将于明年2月会议前公布。此外，会议中也提及了在2026年适时调整利率的可能性。 从走势来看，澳元兑美元汇率目前维持在0.6660以下水平。技术图表显示，该汇率近期处于上升通道内，相对强弱指数反映市场存在一定看涨情绪。若继续 上行，近期可能测试0.6685附近水平，并逐步接近0.6707区域。下行方面，0.6630附近构成短期支撑，若跌破则可能进一步回调。 其他经济数据方面，美国12月消费者信心指数较初值略有下调，短期通胀预期则小幅上升。 市场数据显示，截至12月18日，澳大利亚证券交易所的30天银行间现金利率期货合约显示，市场对下次澳联储会议加息的预期概率维持在约27%左右。 美元 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（12月22日）大幅收涨，开盘价4340.42美元/盎司，最高价4435.57美元/盎司，最低价4337.96美 元/盎司，收盘价4431.78美元/盎司。 消息面： 美联储理事米兰表示，随着近期货币政策调整的推进，他此前主张降息50个基点的必要性已有所减弱。米兰指 出，此前通胀数据中出现了一些异常波动，部分与政府停摆有关。这些异常信号表明，美联储政策立场应朝更 宽松的方向调整。他强调，目前并未看到经济在短期内陷入衰退的风险，但认为中性利率水平已明显下移，货 币政策必须反映这一结构性变化。若政策利率未能持续下调以贴近新的中性水平，反而可能增加经济陷入衰退 的风险。此外，对于自身任期问题，米兰坦言尚不确定是否会留任。他表示：如果到1月底仍未有继任者获得 确认，我将默认自己将继续履职。 美国银行CEO莫伊尼汉表示，人工智能正开始对美国经济产生更大影响。莫伊尼汉周一接受电视采访时表 示："今年AI投资持续积累，明年及未来几年可能会成为更重要的增长动力。AI的影响正日益凸显，虽然不能 将所有增长归因于AI，但其边际效应已相当显著。"执掌该行近15年的莫伊尼汉称，美银预测美国明年经济将 保持强劲 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.464 | 102.504 | 105.860 | 105.860 | 107.980 | 108.005 | 111.98 | 112.2 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.490 | 102.526 | 105.970 | 105.965 | 108.150 | 108.175 | 112.66 | 112.84 | | | 涨跌 | -0.026 | -0.022 | -0.110 | -0.105 | -0.170 | -0.170 | -0.680 | -0.640 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0. ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 这位富豪下场了，华纳兄弟探索公司千亿美元收购案最新消息！ 贵金属大爆发！黄金、白银齐齐创历史新高！铂金也逼近历史高点。 美股三大指数集体收涨 美东时间12月22日，临近假日，美股交投清淡，主要指数集体上涨。美股三大指数已连涨三 日。 美东时间12月22日，美股三大指数集体收涨，开启了"圣诞老人行情"。 | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 488.730 | 1.56% | | --- | --- | --- | | TSLA.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 183.690 | 1.49% | | NVDA.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET) | 309.780 | 0.85% | | GOOGL.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) AMZN.O | 228.430 | 0.48% | | 脸书(META PLATF | 661.500 | 0.41% | | META.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 484.715 | -0.25% | | MSFT.O | | | | 苹 ...

上周四，欧洲央行宣布维持主要政策利率不变，并对欧元区经济前景表达了更为积极的看法，认为在全 球贸易冲击和地缘政治不确定性加剧的背景下，欧元区经济展现出一定韧性。 在货币政策沟通方面，欧洲央行行长拉加德明确表示，在当前高度不确定的环境下，欧洲央行无法提供 前瞻性指引。她指出，无论是地缘政治风险、全球贸易格局变化，还是欧洲边境附近的贸易与产能问 题，都令未来路径充满不确定性，央行只能坚持"逐次会议、数据依赖"的决策方式。 施纳贝尔的信心源于欧洲在应对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普引发的关税动荡方面表现良好。消费者受益于 工资的快速增长以及接近历史低点的失业率。与此同时，有利的融资条件以及竞相采用人工智能技术的 热潮也提振了投资。 官员们一直暗示，他们对当前利率水平感到满意，认为这是最优水平，因为通胀已回归其2%的目标， 且欧元区20国的经济尽管增长缓慢，但仍保持增长。 据知情人士透露，政策制定者们私下认为，降息周期很可能已经结束。 施纳贝尔强调："我并没有说应该加息。而是说不应该再次降息。这是一个非常重要的区别。" 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行执行委员会成员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔表示，她预计利率在一段时间内不会 上调。在施纳 ...

消息面上，美联储，传出大消息。 据金十报道，美国总统特朗普可能在明年1月第一周任命新的美联储主席。 截至收盘，美股三大指数集体收涨，标普500指数涨0.64%，纳指涨0.52%，道指涨0.47%。 美东时间周三（12月24日）东部时间下午1点，美股将提前收盘，并于周四（12月25日）圣诞节当天休市。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.58%。爱奇艺涨近3%，小马智行涨超2%，哔哩哔哩涨1.57%，京东涨近1%；金山云跌1.50%。 个股方面，特斯拉、英伟达涨超1%，谷歌、亚马逊、Meta小幅上涨；英特尔、奈飞跌超1%，苹果、微软小幅下跌。 （来源：e公司） 国际金银大涨，再创新高。COMEX黄金期货涨逾2%；COMEX白银期货涨2.37%，报69.09美元/盎司。 报道称，鲍威尔的四年主席任期将于明年5月届满，特朗普此前表示，他希望选择一位支持增长友好型货币政策的继任者。除美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼外， 其他候选人还包括白宫经济顾问哈塞特以及前美联储理事沃什。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为19.9%，维持利率不变的概率为80.1%。到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为44.7% ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - President Trump plans to nominate the next Federal Reserve Chair in the first week of January 2026, with current Chair Powell's term ending in May 2026. Trump emphasizes the need for a successor who supports "growth-friendly" monetary policy to promote economic expansion [1] - Treasury Secretary Becerra states that inflation is steadily approaching the Fed's 2% target, predicting that 2026 will see simultaneous improvement in economic growth and price stability. He notes that government efficiency improvements will further optimize the overall economic situation [1] - Fed Governor Milan warns that pausing interest rate cuts in 2026 could increase the risk of recession. He emphasizes that rising unemployment should prompt policymakers to maintain an accommodative stance [1] - Cleveland Fed President Harmack suggests that after three consecutive rate cuts, interest rate policy should remain stable in the coming months, arguing that the primary risk remains stubborn inflation rather than a weak job market [1] Group 2: EU Sanctions and Currency Intervention - The EU has decided to extend comprehensive economic sanctions against Russia for six months, effective until July 31, 2026, covering key areas such as trade, finance, energy, technology, and transportation. The EU is also implementing special measures to combat sanction evasion [2] - Japan's Finance Minister Katayama asserts that Japan retains the discretion to take decisive action in response to significant currency fluctuations that deviate from economic fundamentals, emphasizing the potential for "bold intervention" if necessary [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 48,362.68 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.64% to 6,878.49 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.52% to 23,428.83 points [3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 2.13% to $4,480.60 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main US oil contract rising by 2.53% to $57.95 per barrel and Brent crude rising by 2.45% to $61.52 per barrel [5] - US Treasury yields increased across various maturities, with the 2-year yield rising by 2.96 basis points to 3.507%, and the 10-year yield increasing by 2.74 basis points to 4.165% [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.46% to 98.26, while the euro and British pound appreciated against the dollar [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Schnabel does not expect interest rates to be raised for a considerable period, indicating stability in borrowing costs for the foreseeable future [1][2] - Schnabel clarified that she did not advocate for an interest rate hike but emphasized that there should not be another rate cut, highlighting the distinction between the two positions [2] - Recent comments from Schnabel led to a market reassessment towards tighter monetary policy, with investors initially betting on a potential rate increase by the ECB [1]

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% as of December 22 [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the consistent policy interest rates and a slight increase in financing costs for banks in the money market, which reduces the incentive for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - The pressure on banks' interest margins continues as they reduce costs for the real economy, while the weighted average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are at historical lows, indicating a relatively loose monetary condition [1] Group 2 - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy and the flexible use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - There is an expectation that if deposit rates and policy rates decrease further next year, LPR may see a slight decline, with a greater likelihood of RRR cuts compared to interest rate cuts [2] - Economic pressures are anticipated in the first quarter of 2026, prompting a potential new round of interest rate and RRR cuts to stimulate internal financing demand [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting a stable lending rate environment [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its monetary policy language from "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments" to "doing a good job in both counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments," suggesting that the peak of economic pressure has passed [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in November was approximately 3.1%, down about 30 basis points year-on-year, indicating that loan rates are at historically low levels [3] Group 2 - The PBOC has indicated that it will continue to implement moderately loose monetary policies in the coming year, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support low financing costs [3] - Analysts expect that potential new rounds of RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in the next year will lead to further decreases in LPR, stimulating internal financing demand [3] - The central bank's efforts to maintain a smooth interest rate transmission mechanism have contributed to the decline in overall financing costs for society [2]