这种绕开美元霸权的合作模式，正是美国最忌惮的 "破局范例"，控制委内瑞拉就能直接切断这条去美 元化通道。 加勒比海的风浪背后，一场关乎全球能源命脉的博弈正在升温。坐拥 3030 亿桶原油储量（约占全球 1/5）的委内瑞拉，作为全球已知最大石油宝库，早已成为大国角力的核心靶点。 一旦美国彻底掌控这个 "石油王国"，全球能源格局将迎来颠覆性重构，而中国深耕十余年的千亿布 局，正站在命运的十字路口。 美国对委内瑞拉的觊觎，从来不止于石油本身。 作为全球最大产油国，美国本土轻质原油产能充沛，但炼油厂却高度依赖委内瑞拉的重质原油 —— 这 种能高效生产柴油、沥青的 "工业血液"，恰恰是美国的供给短板，且委油生产成本低至每桶 20 美元以 下，性价比无可替代 。 控制委内瑞拉，美国将直接握住全球能源的 "阀门"：通过松紧制裁随意调节委油出口量，既能人为制 造供应震荡推高油价，拯救本土亏损的页岩油企业，也能压低油价打击竞争对手，彻底巩固其能源霸权 。 更致命的是，这将精准瓦解中俄在拉美的能源根基，重构西半球能源秩序，让 "门罗主义" 的幽灵重新 笼罩美洲大陆。 对美国而言，还有一层关键图谋 —— 扼杀去美元化的重要试验田。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced its most significant annual decline since 2017, with a drop of nearly 10% in 2025, and is expected to continue its weakness into 2026, with a consensus forecast predicting an additional decline of about 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Performance in 2025 - The dollar's performance in 2025 was characterized by a sharp decline and subsequent weak fluctuations, with the index dropping from a high of 109.24 to a low of 96.99, ending the year around 98, marking a cumulative decline of approximately 9.3% to 9.7%, the worst annual performance in eight years [2]. - The decline was attributed to the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative that had supported the strong dollar, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in response to economic slowdown and inflation easing [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment for 2026 - Major financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, hold bearish views on the dollar for 2026, based on four key factors: the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more dovish monetary policy, the divergence in monetary policy among major central banks, changing global economic growth dynamics, and structural pressures from the trend of "de-dollarization" [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts, with predictions of a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, influenced by a potential leadership change that may favor low interest rates [3]. Group 3: Economic Growth Dynamics - The market is adjusting its growth expectations for the US and non-US economies, with the IMF maintaining its 2026 growth forecast for the US, while showing optimism for recovery in Eurozone economies like Germany [4]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, as concerns over US fiscal sustainability and tariff policies are undermining the dollar's credibility as an international reserve currency, leading to increased investment in gold as a hedge against dollar risk [4]. Group 4: Potential Factors for Dollar Rebound - Despite the prevailing downtrend, several factors could trigger a temporary rebound in the dollar, including the possibility that the Federal Reserve's monetary easing may not be as aggressive as anticipated, and the resilience of the US economy could provide support for the dollar [5][6]. - The lack of a clear alternative to the dollar for global reserve and settlement functions suggests that the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset may be reaffirmed in times of geopolitical tension, potentially attracting capital back to the dollar [7].

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - The military action against Venezuela has led to a complete halt in oil exports, with key ports like Jose port ceasing operations, affecting the country's oil supply chain [2][3] - Venezuela's current oil production is less than 1 million barrels per day, accounting for only 0.8% of global production, and its export volume is approximately 600,000 barrels per day, significantly lower than historical peaks [3] - Analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices may only rise by $1 to $2 per barrel in the short term due to the current oversupply in the global oil market [3][4] Group 2: Long-term Oil Production Outlook - If a new government in Venezuela can lift sanctions and attract foreign investment, oil exports could potentially increase to around 3 million barrels per day, which would negatively impact global oil prices [5] - The shift in Venezuela's oil export focus from China to the U.S. and its allies could reshape the global oil market dynamics, especially as the U.S. plans to invest billions in rebuilding Venezuela's energy sector [3][7] Group 3: Mineral Supply Impact - Venezuela possesses significant mineral resources, including copper and rare earths, but its global supply impact is limited, with iron ore production expected to be only 2.653 million tons in 2024, representing 0.1% of global output [8] - The political instability has led to a suspension of Chinese investments in local mining projects, but the overall risk to global supply chains remains low due to Venezuela's small market share [8][9] Group 4: Currency Settlement Implications - The recent developments pose a direct threat to the use of the Chinese yuan in cross-border settlements with Venezuela, where over 60% of oil trade was conducted in yuan [10] - China's investments in Venezuela, exceeding $60 billion over the past decade, may face devaluation risks due to the disruption in trade and potential regime change [10] - The situation may accelerate the global de-dollarization process, as the U.S. military intervention raises concerns about the safety of dollar-denominated transactions [10]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with silver rising nearly 150% and gold surpassing $4,300 per ounce, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979 and indicating a systemic loss of confidence in the global monetary system centered around the US dollar [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) fell over 9% in 2025, with a 10.6% drop in the first half of the year, representing the worst performance since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973 [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Dollar Credibility - The decline in the dollar's purchasing power is driven by a collapse in the credibility of the Federal Reserve's policies, with three interest rate cuts since September 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75% [3] - There are concerns about the politicization of monetary policy under the Trump administration, which could lead to a repeat of the 1970s "Great Inflation" scenario, where a lack of discipline in monetary policy resulted in a collapse of dollar credibility and a 2,300% increase in gold prices over a decade [3] Group 3: De-dollarization Trends - Central banks globally are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with emerging economies like China, India, Turkey, and Russia leading the charge, indicating a strategic shift away from the dollar [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Ukraine conflict, have heightened awareness of the risks associated with over-reliance on dollar assets, prompting a reassessment of the dollar's safety [4] Group 4: Gold and Silver as Strategic Assets - Gold's status as a non-sanctionable and non-freezable ultimate settlement asset has been elevated, while the internationalization of the renminbi is creating a parallel payment system, enhancing gold's role as a neutral medium of exchange [5] - Silver's price surge reflects both its financial attributes and a surge in industrial demand, particularly driven by its role in the electrification and green transition [7][8] Group 5: Structural Changes in Precious Metal Demand - The buying structure for precious metals has fundamentally shifted, with central bank purchases, private accumulation, and industrial demand providing stronger support compared to the past decade dominated by ETFs and futures [9] - The disconnect between "paper gold" and "physical gold" indicates a growing preference for tangible assets over financial derivatives, reflecting a loss of confidence in dollar-denominated financial assets [9] Group 6: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Current market conditions are often compared to the 1979-1980 gold bull market, but a more accurate reference may be the 1971-1974 period following the Nixon shock, where gold prices rose nearly 400% amid a vacuum in monetary order [10] - The ongoing rise in precious metals is not merely speculative but represents a collective vote of global capital against the dollar-centric monetary logic, signaling an irreversible loss of confidence in the existing unipolar currency system [10][11]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "abandoning the dollar and buying gold" is expected to continue into 2026, with a general expectation of a weaker dollar amidst complex market dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Dollar Performance in 2025 - In 2025, the dollar experienced a significant decline, with the index dropping from a high of 109.24 to a low of 96.99, resulting in an annual decline of approximately 9.3% to 9.7%, marking the worst performance in eight years [2]. - The decline was attributed to the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, as the Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle in response to economic slowdown and inflation easing, reducing the attractiveness of dollar assets [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment for 2026 - Major institutions, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, hold a bearish outlook on the dollar for 2026, based on four key factors: 1. The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with expectations of further rate cuts [3]. 2. Divergence in monetary policy among major central banks, with others tightening or maintaining rates, which could narrow the interest rate differential and drive capital away from dollar assets [3]. 3. A potential shift in global economic growth dynamics, with more optimistic expectations for non-U.S. economies compared to the U.S. [4]. 4. Structural pressures from the trend of "de-dollarization," as concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and trade policies diminish the dollar's credibility [4]. Group 3: Potential Factors for Dollar Rebound - Despite the prevailing downtrend, several factors could trigger a temporary rebound in the dollar: 1. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may not be as accommodative as anticipated, with persistent inflation and internal decision-making divisions adding uncertainty [5][6]. 2. The tightening of monetary policy in non-U.S. economies may face limitations due to domestic constraints, potentially affecting their currency strength [6]. 3. The U.S. economy may demonstrate unexpected resilience, supported by fiscal expansion and the growth of the AI sector, which could enhance overall productivity and attract global capital [7]. 4. The "de-dollarization" process may be slow, and the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven asset could be reaffirmed in times of geopolitical tension [7]. Group 4: Overall Outlook for 2026 - The dollar is expected to face a tug-of-war between long-term weakening trends and potential cyclical rebounds, with key variables including central bank policies, the impact of U.S. fiscal stimulus, and global capital flows in response to geopolitical risks [8].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a "super bull" trend in 2025, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium reaching historical highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and increased demand from central banks [1][6][11]. Price Performance - In 2025, COMEX gold and silver contracts saw annual maximum increases of 66% and 187%, respectively, while London spot gold and silver rose by 75% and 192% [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium also experienced significant gains, with NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts rising over 185% and 136%, respectively [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged in three phases throughout 2025, with notable increases in the first quarter and a subsequent high-level consolidation phase before another rise in the latter part of the year [3]. - Silver's price increase was concentrated in the fourth quarter, with COMEX silver rising from under $40/oz to $79.7/oz [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market faced a deficit of approximately 5,835 tons in 2025, driven by low mining output and strong demand from sectors like 5G and renewable energy [8][9]. - Platinum and palladium also faced supply shortages, with the global platinum market expected to have a supply gap of 69,200 ounces in 2025 [10]. Influencing Factors - Multiple factors supported the rise in gold prices, including risk premiums, a rate-cutting cycle, and increased central bank purchases [6][7]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remained high, with gold's price increases often leading to similar movements in silver [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect precious metals to maintain strength into 2026, with gold potentially reaching $5,000/oz, supported by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [11][13]. - The demand for silver and platinum is anticipated to grow due to the energy transition and industrial applications, despite potential short-term corrections [12][13].

展望2026年，目前推动金价上涨的核心主线仍未看到逆转迹 象：美国处于降息周期、地缘政治与经济不确定性持续、去美 元化进程推进、央行增配黄金趋势延续等。多数市场观点认 为，2026年金价仍有突破空间。 作者：陈姗 封图：图虫创意 有观点认为，央行购金需求并未减弱，短期内购金量虽不及市场资金狂热，但会成为一股重要的金 价底盘力量。当金价技术性回调时，央行和主权基金的购金预期将对回调空间和持续性产生约束。 2025年，市场对黄金的讨论热度空前。伦敦现货黄金价格全年创下逾50次历史新高，突破4550 美元/盎司的历史高位，年度累计涨幅一度超过70%，创下近46年最高单年涨幅，远超同期全球 多数风险与固收资产。 金价的强劲走势源于多重动力共同推动：地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走势趋弱，以及持续 积聚的上涨动能。投资者与各国央行纷纷增持黄金，以增强资产组合的多元性与稳定性。 回顾来看，尽管2025年央行购金节奏有所放缓，但投机资金涌入推动金价走高。 世界黄金协会数据显示，截至2025年10月，年内全球央行已公布的净购金总量达254吨，虽然各 国央行对黄金的需求依然强劲，但相较于前三年增速有所放缓。另一边，全球黄金E ...

2026新年伊始，特朗普干了票大的：把委内瑞拉总统夫妇绑去了纽约审判。 堂堂一国总统3小时被闪电逮捕，简直是骇人听闻。 美国从世界警察，变成了世界恶霸。 据说，这是美国在拉美36年以来最大的军事行动，也是二战以来世界政权战争中一次极为罕见而又迅速 的军事行动。 而面对美国的雷霆手段，委内瑞拉毫无还手能力。 这个世界从古至今，始终上演着弱肉强食的戏码。 特朗普生擒马杜罗的背后，实质上还是为了掠夺石油和捍卫美元霸权。 抢石油是直接现金流，救美元是终极KPI，特朗普用一场48小时的"闪电接管"，把资源、金融、地缘一 次性打包收入囊中。 美国"午夜之锤" 这是美国历史上最令人震撼、最有效、最强大的一次美国军事力量与执行能力的展示之一。 这次行动没有一名美国军人阵亡，也没有一件美国装备损失。 午夜突袭，特朗普接管委内瑞拉、活捉马杜罗。 当地时间1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉首都实施打击，军事行动代号为"午夜之锤(Midnight Hammer)"。 随后特朗普火速宣布，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人被美军三角洲特种部队抓捕，并被带至美国纽约。 据美国公布的细节显示，美军从行动到抓人，全程大约3小时。 美东时间2日22时46分 ...

更炸裂的新闻还在后面。 来源：中国能源网 导语：2026年1月3日外盘第一天：黄金白银涨不动、美元指数虽然没跌，但美股三大指数涨跌参半，这 意味着黄金没有提供"避险叙事的宏观安全感"，权益资产没能提供"流动性充裕的确认"。更炸裂的是， 美国空袭委内瑞拉，意图组建"美国版欧佩克"，这次地缘之火在美国后花园展开，但和俄乌战争的逻辑 相近，观望明日能源和化工产品是否在川皇操作下引发开门红。世界在等待中国开盘。 元旦期间外盘趋势：金银贵金属一路长虹，能源农业继续垫底 | | 主要品种流跃船 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际品种名称 | 12 31 H 北京时间下午3点 | 1月3日 北京时间上午6点 | 漆跌幅 | | | 外盘收盘价 | 外盘收盘价 | | | 美元指數 | 98. 30 | d8. 42 | 0. 15% | | 离岸人民币加权 | 6. 9526 | 6. 9373 | 0. 22% | | 恒生指数 | 25630. 54 | 26338. 47 | 2. 76% | | A50指数加权 | 15262 | 1544a | 1 532 | | 道屋斯工业 ...