【导读】印尼意外降息25个基点 中国基金报记者 泰勒 全球降息潮，今天到印尼！ 印尼意外降息 9月17日，印尼央行再次意外降息，并表示将为进一步降息寻找空间。尽管近期印尼盾走弱，央行仍选择提振经济，此前全国因裁员引发的 抗议活动一度演变为暴力事件。 该行周三将基准利率（BI-Rate）下调至4.75%，在38位经济学家中，仅有2位预测到此次举措。政策制定者已连续三次会议放松货币政 策，过去12个月累计降息150个基点。 在行长佩里·瓦尔吉约（Perry Warjiyo）的表述中，印尼央行当前的货币政策是"在保持稳定的同时，全力支持增长（all-out pro- growth）"。受此影响，印尼股市走高、债券收益率下行。印尼盾兑美元小幅走强，但在过去一个月仍是表现最差的亚洲货币。 瓦尔吉约表示："接下来，印尼央行将在考虑印尼盾稳定性的同时，继续监测经济增速和通胀前景，把握降息空间，谨慎而有节制地实施货 币政策。" 华侨银行经济学家拉瓦尼娅·文卡特斯瓦兰称："此次降息凸显央行着力提振增长的取向，可能与政府同向发力的政策形成互补。" 此次决定显示，经济增长已超越汇率稳定，成为央行的首要关注点。印尼总统普拉博沃·苏比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range from 4.25%-4.5%, amidst differing opinions on future policy directions [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the extent of the rate cut, with some advocating for a larger reduction due to concerns over economic growth, while others worry about inflation remaining above the 2% target [1]. - The overall trend indicates the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, which is seen as favorable for precious metals [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The gold price in Shanghai fell by 0.36%, closing at 835.08 yuan per gram [3]. - The current risks in the U.S. job market and the political instability in Europe are contributing to a decline in the dollar index, increasing institutional investors' demand for precious metals as a safe haven [5]. - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is likely to release dovish signals, which may lead to increased market volatility and differing interpretations of the decision [5].

17日周三，美国股指期货在美联储政策会议结束前夕窄幅下挫，市场普遍预期央行将宣布2025年首次降息，押注25个基点降息的概率为96%，大 幅降息的概率仅为4%。 美股盘前，标普500指数期货跌0.2%，纳指期货跌0.25%，均触及盘中低点。美股芯片股盘前短线走低，英伟达盘前一度跌近1%，英特尔、AMD 跌0.5%，阿斯麦跌0.78%。美元上涨，现货黄金下挫。 除降息决定外，投资者还将密切关注美联储"点阵图"的发布，该图将揭示央行对2025年剩余时间降息次数的预期。美联储主席鲍威尔在决议后的 新闻发布会也备受市场关注。 标普500指数期货跌0.2%，纳指期货跌0.25%，均触及盘中低点。美股芯片股盘前短线走低，英伟达盘前一度跌近1%，英特尔、 AMD跌0.5%，阿斯麦跌0.78%。 欧洲主要股市高开，德国DAX30指数开盘上涨0.42%。英国富时100指数开盘上涨0.20%。法国CAC40指数开盘上涨0.30%。欧洲 斯托克50指数开盘上涨0.32%。 美元指数上涨0.11%至96.75。 印尼盾兑美元保持稳定，印尼五年期国债收益率下行5个基点，印尼股市延续涨势，此前印尼央行意外降息。 美国10年期国债收益率下 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's monetary policy is shifting towards using reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts instead of aggressive interest rate cuts to protect bank interest margins and maintain indirect financing channels, while also allowing for gradual interest rate reductions and innovative structural tools to stabilize finance and promote transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - Since 2016, China has adjusted the RRR 23 times, all downward, reducing the RRR for major deposit-taking financial institutions from 17.5% to 9.0%, a total decrease of 8.5 percentage points [3]. - In contrast, the policy interest rates have only been adjusted 14 times since 2016, indicating a preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3][4]. - The current average RRR for Chinese financial institutions is approximately 6.2%, suggesting substantial room for further RRR cuts compared to major economies where RRR tools are less utilized [5]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China has decreased to 1.42%, the lowest on record, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the banking sector if interest rates are cut too aggressively [3][4]. - The banking sector is crucial for supporting the real economy, as it accounts for 89.7% of financing in China, compared to only 42% in the U.S., where direct financing plays a larger role [4]. Group 3: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination - RRR cuts will increase the funds available for commercial banks, enabling them to better support proactive fiscal policies, as approximately 68% of national debt and 75% of local government debt is held by commercial banks [6]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy is contingent on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, especially given the low excess reserve ratio in China [6]. Group 4: Interest Rate Dynamics - There is limited elasticity of consumption and investment to interest rate changes in China, which diminishes the effectiveness of interest rate cuts in stimulating economic activity [8]. - The decline in interest rates has led to a reduction in household deposits, with a decrease of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, indicating a relationship between lower interest rates and reduced savings [8]. - Despite the current low inflation and a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, there remains room for further interest rate cuts, especially as external conditions improve with potential U.S. rate cuts [8][9]. Group 5: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - China has been innovating structural monetary policy tools, which have become increasingly important in supporting weak economic sectors and key areas such as technology innovation and green development [9]. - As of the end of 2024, structural monetary policy tools are expected to account for approximately 14.2% of total bank assets in China, highlighting their growing significance [9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in response to the recent slowdown in the job market [2][3] - The meeting occurs at a politically sensitive time, with the Trump administration exerting pressure on the Fed to lower rates and attempting to influence its board composition [2][3] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the focus on employment weakness over persistent inflation, with some officials questioning the justification for a rate cut given the current unemployment rate of 4.3% and inflation above the 2% target [3] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows a significant decline in non-farm payroll growth, averaging only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a clear slowdown in the labor market [3] - The Fed faces challenges in determining the neutral interest rate, currently at 4.3%, with estimates for the neutral rate being adjusted upwards, suggesting the need for several more rate cuts to reach a neutral stance [3] - The quarterly economic projections and dot plot regarding the number of expected rate cuts for the year will be closely monitored by the market, with potential adjustments from two to three cuts [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming meeting represents a critical decision point for the Fed regarding its independence, political pressures, and economic judgments, with implications for both the U.S. and global economies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. stock market is approaching historical highs, leading to concerns about expensive valuations and over-reliance on artificial intelligence spending, particularly in the U.S. [1] - Investors face risks as the artificial intelligence theme has become a major driver of market and economic growth, while other sectors are still pressured by high interest rates, unclear tariffs, and labor market challenges [1] - Following comments from Powell at the global central bank meeting, the market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut on September 25, with Powell's remarks indicating a more balanced approach acknowledging potential labor market weakness [1] Group 2 - The company maintains a neutral allocation to equities, balancing robust fundamentals, ongoing fiscal support, and positive corporate earnings outlook against high valuations and trade uncertainties [2] - Regional allocation has been adjusted to increase exposure to Asian stocks (excluding Japan) to a higher allocation, while also increasing exposure to Latin American stocks to hedge inflation through commodity allocation [2] - The allocation to emerging markets (excluding China) has been raised to neutral [2]

尽管波动性较大的航空票价有所下降，但燃油价格、餐饮及酒店价格的上涨抵消了这一影响。食品通胀 率持续攀升至4.8%，创下2024年初以来的最高水平;服务业通胀率虽降至4.7%，但仍高于英国央行可接 受的范围。 智通财经APP获悉，8月，英国通胀率维持在逾一年半以来的最高水平，这一令人担忧的数据可能会让 英国央行官员对进一步降息保持谨慎态度。 英国国家统计局周三发布数据显示，8月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨3.8%，与7月涨幅持平，这一涨 幅与英国央行及私营部门经济学家的预测一致。 摩根大通资产管理公司全球市场分析师Zara Nokes表示："英国当前的通胀形势愈发严峻，遗憾的是， 在情况好转之前，可能还会进一步恶化。本周英国央行几乎肯定不会降息，即便放眼全年，除非劳动力 市场出现更显著的恶化，否则再次降息的可能性也正变得越来越小。" 受暑期出行时间因素影响，7月英国航空票价一度创下30%的环比涨幅;而8月航空票价环比仅上涨 2.1%。由于去年8月航空票价上涨22%，今年同期数据实际上对通胀产生了下拉作用。 英国国家统计局首席经济学家Grant Fitzner指出，燃油价格的小幅上涨以及住宿成本降幅低于去年同 ...

美联储最新利率决定将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布，鲍威尔的新闻发布会将于凌晨2:30开始。 市场预计，美联储将降息25个基点，以支撑日益疲软的美国劳动力市场，这标志着政策转向——此前由 于担忧关税引发的通胀，美联储接连多个会议按兵不动。 这一政策转折发生在特朗普持续施压的背景下。他本周一直要求美联储进行"大幅降息"。政治戏剧性场 面也一度为本次政策会议谁将出席增添了悬念，不过在参议院确认了新任美联储理事米兰、法院的裁决 暂时允许库克留任后，阵容很可能已无变数。 除了这些"插曲"之外，投资者将密切关注主席鲍威尔的发言，并解析最新经济预测，以寻找未来几个月 利率路径的线索。 美联储观察人士预计，由于官员们在就业和通胀问题上存在分歧，他们不会承诺采取激进的降息步伐。 美国银行高级经济学家阿迪亚·博哈维（Aditya Bhave）表示："除非劳动力市场出现持续恶化迹象，否 则每一次降息都会比前一次更困难。" 投票阵容与内部分歧 尽管央行的利率决定将是许多美联储观察人士关注的焦点，但围绕利率制定机构——联邦公开市场委员 会（FOMC）组成方面的异常情况，却在会议前主导了新闻头条。 特朗普的盟友米兰于当地时间周二上午宣 ...

美元在今年稍早大幅下跌后，近几月来一度趋于稳定，但随着市场对没看联储重启降息的预期升温，加 上美国总统特朗普再度呼吁积极宽松，美元再度面临抛售压力。 美元在主要货币对中普遍承压，投资者正准备迎接美联储周三表决记录、经济预测摘要的点阵图与记者 会中的鸽派信号。市场预期鲍威尔及其团队将淡化通胀风险，明确表态偏向支撑就业市场，这可能为接 下来几个月连续降息铺路。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 摘要今日周三（9月17日）亚盘时段，尽管美国8月份零售销售和工业生产数据走强，但金价延续涨势， 创下历史新高3703美元/盎司。目前交易员等待美联储周三的货币政策决定。 今日周三（9月17日）亚盘时段，尽管美国8月份零售销售和工业生产数据走强，但金价延续涨势，创下 历史新高3703美元/盎司。目前交易员等待美联储周三的货币政策决定。 【要闻速递】 在周二的交易中，黄金呈现出震荡上行的态势。亚盘阶段，价格稳固于3680一线；进入欧盘后，涨势得 以延续；到了美盘，虽先延续了上涨行情，但随后有所回落，最终日线以一根小阳线收官。 芝商所(CME)的"美联储观察工具"显示，市场几乎笃定美联储本周将降息25个基点，甚至有低机率可能 降息50个 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with traders betting on a larger cut of at least 50 basis points by the end of the year [2][6] - U.S. retail sales increased for the third consecutive month in August, exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in consumer spending [6] - U.S. industrial output showed little growth, with previous month data revised down [6] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices closed lower amid cautious trading before the Federal Reserve's decision, with the Nasdaq down 0.07%, S&P 500 down 0.13%, and Dow Jones down 0.27% [4] - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.5033%, down 0.95% for the day and down 17.55% year-to-date [5] - Gold prices surpassed $3700 per ounce for the first time, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar [3][18] Group 3: Commodity Market - Oil prices rose by over $1 due to concerns over potential supply disruptions from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian ports and refineries [3] - Brent crude oil was reported at $68.47, up 1.53%, while WTI crude oil was at $64.52, up 1.93% [19]