Market Performance - S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs despite tariff concerns, with Tesla's stock rising by 4.7% due to the expansion of its Robotaxi business [1] - Nvidia achieved a three-day streak of record highs, increasing its market capitalization to $4 trillion [1] - MP Materials, a rare earth mining company, saw its stock surge nearly 51% [1] - Delta Airlines regained its profit guidance for the year, resulting in a 12% stock increase [1] Tariff Developments - Myanmar is negotiating with Trump for potential zero tariffs on exports to the U.S. before the August deadline [1] - Brazilian President announced plans to negotiate tariffs with the U.S., threatening reciprocal measures if negotiations fail [1] - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1, prompting traders to expedite shipments to Hawaii [1] - HSBC indicated that the August 1 tariff could be a turning point for copper prices in Shanghai and London [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Trump urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates quickly, praising Nvidia's stock performance [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July and supported continued balance sheet reduction [1] - There are differing opinions within the Federal Reserve regarding the lasting impact of tariffs on inflation, with some expecting effects to persist into next year [1] Industry Developments - OPEC+ is reportedly discussing a pause in production increases starting in October [1] - OpenAI released its first "open weights" model in six years, potentially challenging Microsoft's exclusive agreement [1] - Grok 4 was officially launched, boasting the strongest computational training capabilities to compete with GPT-5 and Claude 4 Opus [1] - Ant Group plans to introduce Circle stablecoin and is considering applying for licenses in multiple regions [1] - U.S. rare earth stocks surged in pre-market trading, with MP Materials receiving investment from the Pentagon for factory expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market continues to rise, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new closing highs, driven by positive earnings forecasts from Delta Air Lines and Nvidia's market cap milestone [1][3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 192.34 points to 44,650.64, an increase of 0.43%; the S&P 500 increased by 0.27% to 6,280.46; and the Nasdaq slightly rose by 0.09% to 20,630.66, marking the eighth new closing high for the S&P 500 this year [1]. - Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, nine sectors saw gains, while communication services and technology sectors experienced slight declines of 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively [2]. Company Highlights - Nvidia's stock rose by 0.7%, with its market cap surpassing $4 trillion for the first time [3]. - Tesla's stock surged by 4.7% as the company announced its annual shareholder meeting for November [3]. - Delta Air Lines' stock jumped by 12% after reporting Q2 earnings of $2.10 per share, exceeding analyst expectations of $2.06, and revenue of $15.51 billion, slightly above market forecasts [6][7]. - The airline sector performed strongly, with United Airlines and American Airlines rising by 14.3% and 12.7%, respectively [8]. - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.90%. Alibaba increased by over 2%, while Netease fell by over 2% [5]. Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 227,000, the lowest in seven weeks, better than the expected 235,000, indicating a strong labor market [9]. - Financial analysts noted that Delta's optimistic guidance and the favorable jobless claims data boosted market risk appetite [9]. - Recent uncertainties have eased, with significant legislative progress and clearer tariff issues contributing to market stability [9]. Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude oil futures dropping by 2.65% to $66.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures falling by 2.21% to $68.64 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish Bias) [1] Report's Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with positive factors such as the expected meeting between the US Commerce Secretary and Chinese officials, the extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in the US, strong US non - farm payroll data in June, expected Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026, expansion in manufacturing PMIs in the US and China, measures to boost corporate performance in China, multiple rate cuts by the European Central Bank, military expansion and industrial recovery in Germany [1] Summary by Related Information Important News - US President Trump issued a second wave of tariff letters to eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil being the highest since the new reciprocal tariffs were announced [1] - The US stock market rebounded strongly led by technology stocks, but the Fear and Greed Index signaled "extreme greed", indicating high market risk sentiment [1] - Morgan Stanley expects no rate cuts in 2025 due to inflation risks and tariffs, while Citi expects a rate - cut cycle to start in September and continue until the policy rate drops to 3 - 3.25% [1] - Baillie Gifford believes the prospects of Chinese tech giants depend more on domestic consumer sentiment than tariff policies, as US - bound exports are less than one - tenth of China's retail sales [1] - The US Treasury auctioned $39 billion of 10 - year Treasury bonds with a winning yield of 4.362%, lower than 4.421% in June [1] - Goldman Sachs found that the probability of the US dollar depreciating when the US stock market falls is more than twice as high as in the past decade, due to factors like US policy uncertainty, global diversified investment, and fiscal risks [1] - Brazilian President Lula called an emergency meeting and warned of a response to any unilateral tariff hikes based on Brazil's economic reciprocity law [1] Global Economic Logic - The US Commerce Secretary is expected to meet Chinese officials in early August, and the US extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1st [1] - US non - farm payroll data in June was significantly better than expected, and the market anticipates Fed rate cuts in September and acceleration in 2026 [1] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand, and China's PMI production index continued to expand while the new order index resumed expansion [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of cut - throat competition is expected to boost listed company performance [1] - The European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, Germany is expanding its military by 30%, and German industry shows signs of recovery with a 1.2% month - on - month increase in industrial output in May [1]

金十数据7月11日讯，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，她仍认为今年可能会有两次降息，并指出关税对价格 的影响较预期更为温和的可能性正在上升。戴利透露，部分企业正在协商分摊关税成本，从而减少转嫁 给终端消费者的比例。她表示，美国经济状况良好，经济增长和消费者支出正在放缓，但还没有减弱。 通胀正朝着美联储2%的目标迈进。"我认为可能会出现两次降息，但每个人的预期都存在不确定性，考 虑在秋季实施降息"， 戴利表示。 美联储戴利：预计2025年将降息两次 关税影响或弱于预期 ...

美联储戴利：考虑在秋季实施降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Daly suggests that a weak labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, but inflation concerns could steer policy in a different direction [1] Group 1 - The actual labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue that could counterbalance the potential for rate cuts, indicating a complex policy environment [1]

Group 1 - The FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests that there may be two interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] - There is a belief that the economy is on a sustainable path for inflation to return to 2% [1] - Potential tariffs are not expected to cause a significant increase in consumer goods prices [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth is slowing down but has not yet stopped [1] - Importers and retailers are absorbing some of the tariff costs [1]

旧金山联储主席戴利表示，2025年很可能出现两次降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Federal Reserve could consider a rate cut in July, which led to a short-term decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - Waller's comments suggest a potential shift in monetary policy, specifically the possibility of a rate cut in July [1] - Following Waller's remarks, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by approximately 3 basis points from its daily high [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - **Stock Markets**: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - **Bond Markets**: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - **Commodity Markets**: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - **Foreign Exchange Markets**: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - **Employment**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - **Inflation**: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - **Retail Sales**: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - **Services PMI**: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - **Consumption**: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - **Real Estate**: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - **PMI**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - **Canada**: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - **Europe**: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - **Japan**: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - **US**: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - **UK**: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - **Switzerland**: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - **European Stocks**: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - **Japanese Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - **Indian Market**: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - **Primary Market**: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - **Secondary Market**: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]