经济观察报 记者 张锐 中美贸易正在重新"活跃"起来。 "一部分客户立刻恢复了生产、出货，一部分还在观望，需要谈新的价格。"5月14日上午，鸿利达控股有限公司首席商务官蔡铭峰对经济观察报记者说。 同日，广东微电新能源有限公司董事长陈志勇亦向经济观察报记者表示，自今年4月以来美国大幅对华加征关税，公司暂停了出口美国的合作订单。"现在可 以重启了。"他说，当下第一步是清理库存。 罗宾升国际货运有限公司（C.H. Robinson）的预测认为，关税新政策实施迅速，但相关90天"暂停期"对海运而言非常短暂，中国始发货量或将在5月激 增，"我们预计客户将加速提交、加急运输订单，以赶在窗口期结束前完成清关"。 5月12日，商务部新闻发言人就《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发表谈话时表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方 取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"（暂停90天），中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税（暂停 90天）。这一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。 5月13日，中国国际金融股份有限公司（下称"中金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry anticipates a surge in freight between China and the United States due to the recent trade talks, with significant increases in shipping activity expected in the coming weeks [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - U.S. importers are eager for upstream shipments to commence quickly, leading to expectations of a trade surge between China and the U.S. [1] - ITS Logistics' Vice President of Global Supply Chain, Paul Breshler, noted that some clients have pre-loaded thousands of containers in China, ready for shipment [1] - A 35% increase in shipping bookings from China was reported on the first day following the joint statement from the U.S.-China trade talks, indicating a rapid emergence of previously backlog orders [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase, and although the 10% tariff on US soybeans limits the actual negative impact on prices, the short - term bearish pattern dominates. Pay attention to US soybean planting weather and China - US progress [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. The short - term bearish pattern still dominates [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure. The inventory in Malaysia is expected to increase in April, and the Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly. The China - US peace talks drive the rebound of US cotton prices, but the purchase increment space is limited. The domestic supply and demand situation is complex, with short - term support below 13,000 yuan strengthening, and caution is needed when chasing long positions in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillating strongly. The new - season red dates have not blossomed, and the old - crop high - inventory pressure exists. The post - May Day downstream arrival and transaction have accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging, which supports the short - term disk [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The supply surplus is expected to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There is insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, but short - term lack of rain will not affect planting due to previous heavy rainfall. Pay attention to subsequent rainfall, and there may be insufficient rainfall in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: From May to July, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. With the resumption of post - holiday operations and soybean arrivals, the supply environment is gradually loosening, and the spot and basis of soybean meal are falling. As of May 9, 2025, the national port soybean inventory and oil - mill soybean inventory have increased [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,886 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Supply**: As of May 9, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory decreased, while the rapeseed meal inventory increased. The import from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,487 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The spot price has also declined. The basis, cross - variety spread, and cross - period spread have all changed [5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory and Export**: As of May 9, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory decreased. Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased compared with the previous month. The expected increase in India's imports in May is positive for market sentiment [10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil closed up the day before yesterday, and it is regarded as a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the gap resistance [1]. 3.4 Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 11, the US cotton planting rate was 28%. According to the USDA's May 25/26 annual forecast, the global production will decrease by 710,000 tons year - on - year, and consumption will increase by 304,000 tons. The ending inventory in the US, China, Brazil, and Australia will change differently [12]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 has increased by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is expected to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, but the tariff adjustment may drive up the demand for cotton [13]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.68%. The spot price also increased. The basis, cross - period spread, and other indicators have changed [11]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Production Area and Inventory**: In some southern Xinjiang production areas, the jujube trees have germinated, and the current growth is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase from last week and still higher than the same period [16]. - **Market Performance**: The main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.06%. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, and the stocking is a short - term rebound [16]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2509 remained stable. The domestic live pig spot price decreased slightly. In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in May will increase slightly, and the weight will also increase slightly. In the medium term, the third - quarter supply may increase, and in the long term, the supply in early next year may be slightly affected by the number of breeding sows [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply surplus is expected to dominate the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and there is a risk of large - weight pig source selling pressure. The consumption side lacks continuous growth momentum [19].

【环球时报报道 记者 丁雅栀】中美12日发表《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，同意大幅降低双边关税。这一消息为全球市场注入一剂强心针， 引发全球金融市场强烈反应。 "关税降幅远超华尔街预期，韦德布什证券公司分析师丹·艾夫斯称，当前对投资者来说是最好的情况。"据《华尔街日报》报道，中美联合声明发 表后，美国股市应声大涨，有着"全球科技股风向标"称号的纳斯达克综合指数飙升逾4%，重新进入牛市行情。道琼斯工业指数恢复4月2日收盘 位。美媒称，亚马逊、苹果和特斯拉等受贸易战冲击的企业股价也集体上扬。服装类、鞋类、运动装备、零售、旅游等与中国业务往来较频繁的 行业股价也在上升。 中国社会科学院美国问题专家吕祥对《环球时报》记者表示，此次共同声明的优点在于明确了"认识到双边经贸关系对两国和全球经济的重要 性"等重要原则。只要美方真心诚意按照原则推进，双方进一步磋商甚至谈判就能够真正开展起来，从技术层面将双边关系稳定下来。 美媒称，全球制造商为中美贸易冲突降温松一口气，但同时也在观望未来。CNBC称，顾问公司GEP供应链波动指数显示，4月，北美波动幅度较 大。据GEP咨询副总裁皮亚泰克所说，北美企业正以"令人担忧的速度"大举 ...

2025 年 05 月 14 日 开源晨会 0514 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 沪深300 创业板指 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 银行 | 1.521 | | 美容护理 | 1.177 | | 医药生物 | 0.903 | | 交通运输 | 0.720 | | 煤炭 | 0.622 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | -3.067 | | 计算机 | -0.805 | | 机械设备 | -0.660 | | 电子 | -0.639 | | 通信 | -0.611 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】对中美日内瓦贸易会谈的几点理解——宏观经济点评-20250513 北京时间 5 月 12 日，中美在瑞士日内瓦发布 ...

利用90天关税缓冲期抓紧出货，预计将成为美国进口商的普遍做法，美线或因此迎来一波旺季行情。 5月12日，美国白宫官网发布最新对华关税调整措施。 自美国东部时间5月14日0时起90日内，暂停实施HTSUS税目9903.01.63及第99章第III分章注释2(v)(xiii)(10)； 保留10%的从价税率。 此外，对于小额包裹，自美国东部时间5月14日0时起，对自中国大陆、中国香港、中国澳门进口至美国用于消费，或从保税仓库提取消费的货物： 白宫官网相关公告 其中，自美国东部时间5月14日0时起，对自中国大陆、中国香港、中国澳门进口至美国用于消费，或从保税仓库提取消费的货物： 将HTSUS税目9903.01.63中，所有125%的税率下降至34%； 将HTSUS第99章第III分章注释2(v)(xiii)(10)项中，所有125%的税率下降至34%； 将4月2日第14256号行政命令2(c)(i)（经第14259号及第14266号行政命令修订）的价值低于800美元的小额包裹从价税率，从120%降至54%； 5月2日生效的每个邮政包裹100美元的从量关税不变，在后续修订前继续有效； 取消原计划6月1日生效的将小额包 ...

Core Points - The US and China have agreed to reduce tariffs by 115% within 90 days, marking a thaw in trade relations [1][6] - The new tariff on small packages from China to the US will drop from 120% to 54% for packages valued under $800, effective from May 14 [1][3] - The "De Minimis" policy, which allows for tax exemptions on low-value imports, has been a significant factor in the increase of small package imports to the US, rising from approximately 140 million packages a decade ago to over 1 billion last year [3][4] Trade Impact - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate price pressures on Chinese e-commerce giants like Shein and Temu, which have seen a surge in popularity among US consumers [3][4] - The value of Chinese small package exports to the US is projected to increase from $5.3 billion in 2018 to $66 billion in 2023 [3] - The previous high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration had forced some e-commerce platforms to restructure logistics and increase prices, with some products seeing price hikes of over 100% [4] Economic Consequences - The policy change may result in an annual loss of up to $47 billion for businesses and consumers, disproportionately affecting low-income groups who rely on affordable cross-border e-commerce goods [5] - The US Customs system may face significant pressure due to the increased volume of small packages, potentially leading to delays in customs clearance unless additional funding and personnel are allocated [5] Bilateral Relations - The recent Geneva talks have established a framework for ongoing negotiations, with both sides recognizing the importance of a sustainable and mutually beneficial economic relationship [6][7] - The agreement includes commitments from both sides to suspend or cancel a total of 91% of tariffs on each other's goods, with a mechanism for continued dialogue on trade issues [7]

5月12日，商务部发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称《声明》），富达国际、摩根资产 管理对本次声明进行解读。 上述《声明》结果显示：美国降低自4月2日以来对中国加征的至高125%关税，仅保留加征10%的关 税，其余24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施；作为回应，中国降低自4月4日以来对美加征的至高 125%关税，也仅保留加征10%的关税，其余24%的关税在初始的90天内暂停实施。 摩根资管：中美经贸会谈联合声明超预期 风险释放下市场反应积极 摩根资管对本次联合声明的重点及影响进行了解读：第一，此次声明有效为中美前期贸易争端降温，双 方均作出一定让步，降低并暂停此前部分关税，一则为后续协商创造友好空间，二则也结束了前期中美 贸易因畸高关税而暂停的局面，有助于双方经贸的有序恢复；第二，双方同意建立常态化对话机制，有 助于及时沟通、化解分歧，并避免不必要的摩擦，强化未来协商的稳定性；第三，中美两大经济体贸易 对话立下良好开局，有助于缓解对全球供应链中断及经济衰退的担忧。 摩根资管认为，此次关税下调的幅度超出预期，反映出中美双方都认识到关税战将打击全球增长的经济 现实，对话及协商是化解风险的更好选择。《声明 ...

通知称，根据WTO规则，印度保留"暂停履行优惠待遇或其他义务"的权利，以作为对美方关税的反制。 此次行动是特朗普第二任期内，印度首次采取报复性举措。就在上个月，尽管美国总统宣布了一连串新的关税措施，印度仍表示不会采取针 锋相对的做法，而是优先推动双边贸易协定谈判。两国希望在今年秋季前敲定该协议。 新德里智库"全球贸易研究倡议"创始人阿贾伊·斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示："印度此次在WTO的行动发生在一个微妙时刻，新德里和华盛顿正在探索 更广泛的自由贸易协定，而这次反制可能会为谈判蒙上阴影。" 根据WTO的通知，印度表示，特朗普对钢铁和铝产品加征的关税将影响价值76亿美元的印度出口商品，相关的征税金额将达19.1亿美元。 【导读】印度拟对美部分输印商品征收关税 大家好，一起回顾下今天市场发生了什么。 印度突然反制美国 5月13日，印度拟对部分美国产品加征关税，以回应美国对钢铁和铝产品征收的关税，这标志着印度首次对特朗普关税政策采取反制措施， 尽管两国正接近达成一项贸易协议。 根据周一的一份通知，印度已向世界贸易组织（WTO）通报，美国对上述金属征收关税属于"保障措施"——即贸易限制措施，这将对印度的 贸易产生不利影响。 市 ...

Group 1 - The US and China held trade talks in Geneva on May 12, achieving significant progress, with a joint statement committing to adjust tariff rates by May 14 [1] - The US will cancel tariffs on Chinese goods totaling 91% and modify a 34% reciprocal tariff, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days, retaining 10% [1] - China will also cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on US goods, with similar terms for the 34% reciprocal tariffs, resulting in a reduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [1] Group 2 - Following the announcement, US-listed Chinese stocks surged, with the Nasdaq rising by 5.4%, and notable increases in companies like WeRide and Xiaopeng Motors [1] - The A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5%, indicating a positive market reaction to the trade developments [2] - The reduction in tariffs alleviates previous market concerns regarding consumer price increases and trade disruptions, enhancing investor sentiment [2]