玉米系产业日报 2025-06-23 价格上涨势头有所放缓。盘面来看，前期连续上涨后，近期涨势有所放缓，短线参与为主。 | | 受玉米淀粉企业生产持续亏损影响下，行业开机率继续处于近年同期低位。在供应压力明显减弱以及玉米价格坚挺支撑下，玉米淀 | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 粉现货价格表现相对良好，且行业库存也略有下滑。截至6月18日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量132.8万吨，较上周下降3.20万 | | 淀粉） | | | 重点关注 | 吨，周降幅2.35%，月降幅5.95%；年同比增幅26.36%。盘面来看，近日受玉米涨势放缓影响，淀粉表现也较为震荡，短线参与为 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | 主。 | 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a favorable investment outlook with potential upside [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the structural opportunities arising in the semiconductor industry due to increasing demand for advanced computing chips and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) in China, especially following the escalation of US-China trade tensions [5][10]. - The company's current stock price reflects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42x for 2025, 33x for 2026, and 24x for 2027, suggesting a certain margin of safety in its valuation [5][10]. - The management's confidence in rapid growth is demonstrated through an ambitious stock incentive plan, targeting significant revenue and profit growth over the next few years [10]. Company Overview - The company operates in the electronics industry, specifically focusing on semiconductor equipment, with a significant market share in thin-film deposition equipment and hybrid bonding technology [5][10]. - As of June 23, 2025, the company's stock price is 151.70, with a market capitalization of 424.35 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1,003 million RMB in 2025, 1,306 million RMB in 2026, and 1,736 million RMB in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45.8%, 30.2%, and 32.9% respectively [7][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.37 RMB in 2023 to 6.21 RMB in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [7][10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in hybrid bonding technology, having successfully passed certification with major domestic manufacturers, which positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for domestic HBM production [10]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to reach 41 billion RMB, representing a 52% increase year-on-year, with continued strong growth expected into 2025 [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-23 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆一A2509：4200至4300区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落， 美豆带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2900（华东），基差-167，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存41万吨，上周38.25万吨，环比增加7.19%，去年同期99.49万吨，同 比减少58.79%。偏多 4 ...

Core Insights - The hedge fund market experienced a significant increase in May 2024, with a 2.3% rise, marking the largest gain since March 2024, driven by the Bloomberg Stock Hedge Fund Index [5] - Hedge funds have shown a year-to-date increase of 1.7%, with equity funds leading the gains at 3.3%, while macro funds recorded a maximum decline of 1.2% [5] Private Equity Market Review - The report highlights the ongoing trends in private equity fundraising and investment activities, emphasizing the dynamics of the market [3][8] Hedge Fund Market Overview - In the first quarter of 2024, hedge funds reduced their holdings in the "seven major tech giants" while increasing exposure to Chinese companies listed in the U.S. [8] - Despite escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, hedge funds have favored Chinese stocks, particularly Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Baidu [8] - A Chinese hedge fund capitalized on a significant drop in the Chinese stock market in April due to new U.S. tariffs, achieving a 20% return since then and a cumulative return of 1,485% since its inception ten years ago [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that Hong Kong is intensifying tax scrutiny on private equity and venture capital funds, indicating a shift in regulatory focus [9] - PAG is leading the acquisition of 48 shopping centers owned by Dalian Wanda, showcasing active investment strategies in the private equity space [9] - Stonepeak has agreed to acquire the container leasing company Seaco, reflecting ongoing consolidation in the industry [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年6月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：供应开始增加，国外现货偏强，国内库存开始增加，轮胎开工率高位 中性 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 2、基差：现货13950，基差50 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线上运行 中性 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场情绪主导，短线交易 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费高位 • 2、原料价格偏强 • 3、现货价格抗跌 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、外部环境偏空 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不如预期 ...

中线行情分析 大区间震荡，7月偏上涨。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期看涨基础依然是海外库存持续下降诱发的逼仓行为及国内稳经济政策落 地效果兑现预期，目前在中美贸易对抗这一最大利空未有进一步发酵前，市 场或延续偏强震荡表现。 2 20000附近可以考虑适当增配库存。 3 中线策略建议 2025.6.23-6.27 电解铝 期货品种周报 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2507合约波动区间看20200-20800。 n 本周策略建议 市场或延续偏强震荡表现，未来一周沪铝2508区间看 20400-20900，持多观望。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存 【总体观点】 | | 2025年6月第3周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 国产矿供应短缺局面较难打破，且后续受多方面因素影响，仍有收紧预期，短期国产不含税日均价将 | | | 维持在480-490元/吨；进口矿受海外政局变化影响，海运费接连走高，后续除需继续密切关注市场交 | | | 易情况也需关注海运费价格调整对于进口矿价格的影响。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截至6月下旬，氧化铝运行产能9265万吨 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆产区天气改善，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。随着中美贸易关系持续向好，市场情绪得到修复， 美豆出口向好的预期不变。此外，美豆压榨需求受益于生物燃料政策预期的推动，存在增量预期。这些因 素均对美豆价格构成有力支撑，美豆期价仍将保持易涨难跌走势。目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原 料大豆进口成本攀升的预期，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆反弹节奏。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 ...

华联期货饲料周报 7、8月关注美豆主产区天气炒作情况 豆粕短期或震荡偏强 20250622 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 ◆ 单边：建议豆粕2509支撑位参考2850。期权方面，建议可继续持有豆粕虚值看涨期权。 ◆ 套利：暂观望。 ◆ 展望：关注几个点，首先就是美豆产区天气情况；第二看进口大豆到港的情况；第三看国内豆粕的需求情况； 第四看中加和中美贸易关系。总体来看，预计豆菜粕短期震荡偏强为主。 产业链结构 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 ◆ 总的来说，在中美贸易政策不确定性以及美豆主产区或有干旱预期的情况下，预计豆粕短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 美豆方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 南美方面，目前处于巴西豆出口旺 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is in a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. Short - term pressure comes from the resumption of production. If inventory accumulation exceeds expectations in August - September or purchases from China and India remain poor, it may be seasonally short - allocated. Strategies like expanding the rapeseed - palm oil spread and reverse - arbitrage between September and January contracts are recommended. However, there are potential bullish factors in the second half of the year, and it's advisable to go long at low levels before the fourth quarter [2][5]. - Soybean oil also has a pattern of weak current situation and strong future prospects. The domestic soybean oil inventory may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis. There are opportunities to go long on soybean oil in the fourth quarter, while observing changes in palm oil inventory inflection points and US soybean oil biodiesel policies [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: Positive news about US biodiesel obligations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up international oil prices, leading to a 4.86% weekly increase in the palm oil 09 contract [1]. - Soybean oil: The same positive factors in the US biodiesel policy and Middle East situation affected US soybeans and US soybean oil directly, resulting in a 4.75% weekly rise in the soybean oil 09 contract [1]. 3.2 This Week's Views and Logic Palm oil - Production: June rainfall forecasts indicate continued dryness in Malaysia. Conservatively estimated, production may remain flat or slightly decrease to 1.7 - 1.75 million tons. The annual production in Malaysia in 2025 is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons, with a risk of lower production than last year from July - August [2]. - Export and inventory: Export from the producing areas remains strong, with ITS reporting a 14.31% increase in exports in the first 20 days of June. India's palm oil imports in June may exceed 900,000 tons, leading to a strong expectation of inventory reduction in Malaysia in June [2]. - Market impact: The US biodiesel policy is positive. In the 2025/2026 season, about 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply will be withdrawn from the international market, causing a potential upward trend in the international oil market. There are differences in market expectations for palm oil production this year. If good yields are maintained from July - August, there may be significant inventory accumulation pressure from August - September [2]. Soybean oil - International market: The EPA significantly increased the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) for biomass diesel in 2026, reversing market expectations. The price of US soybean oil has room to rise further. In the 2025/2026 season, the industrial demand for US soybean oil will increase by at least 1.5 million tons to 6.93 million tons, and the expected consumption in 2026 is over 10 million tons [3][4]. - Domestic market: Currently, domestic soybean oil inventory is accumulating rapidly due to high crushing rates, but it may peak in July. After the third quarter, soybean oil may benefit from potential increases in crushing margins and Brazilian basis [4]. 3.3盘面基本行情数据 - Palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 8,170 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,600 yuan/ton, a low of 8,140 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,536 yuan/ton, with a 4.86% increase [7]. - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 7,788 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,198 yuan/ton, a low of 7,780 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,156 yuan/ton, with a 4.75% increase [7]. - Rapeseed oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 9,324 yuan/ton, reached a high of 9,750 yuan/ton, a low of 9,295 yuan/ton, and closed at 9,726 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% increase [7]. - Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 4,035 ringgit/ton, reached a high of 4,144 ringgit/ton, a low of 4,034 ringgit/ton, and closed at 4,115 ringgit/ton, with a 4.79% increase [7]. - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract: Opened at 52.55 cents/pound, reached a high of 56.47 cents/pound, a low of 52.55 cents/pound, and closed at 55.04 cents/pound, with a 7.52% increase [7]. 3.4油脂基本面核心数据 - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline month - on - month, and inventory may decrease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise rapidly in the second quarter [9][11]. - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 20 were 847,695 tons, a 14.31% increase compared to the same period last month [11]. - Price spread: The POGO spread is declining, indicating pressure on palm oil fundamentals. The Indian soybean - palm oil CNF spread is rising [11][12]. - Import: The EU's cumulative palm oil imports in 2025 have decreased by 270,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils have decreased by 540,000 tons [12].