Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI has risen to 49.7% in June, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that it has remained below 50% for three consecutive months, suggesting a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - In Europe, the manufacturing PMI is at 48.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, marking a slow recovery trend over five months, although the recovery remains weak with the index hovering around 48% [1] - The manufacturing PMI for the Americas is reported at 48.4%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued contraction in the region's manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for Asia stands at 50.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a return to expansion despite facing challenges such as U.S. tariffs [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Africa is reported at 48.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a weakening recovery momentum in the region [1] - Analysts suggest that U.S. tariffs continue to disrupt the global economy, increasing uncertainty and limiting long-term planning for businesses, which may weaken the global economic recovery capacity in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The uncertainty of US tariff policies continues to erode external demand for several Asian countries, leading to significant pressure on their manufacturing sectors [1] - The S&P Global reported that Vietnam's manufacturing PMI fell below 50 for the second consecutive month, with new export orders contracting for the seventh month in a row [1][2] - Indonesia's new orders saw the largest decline since August 2021, while South Korea's manufacturing output experienced its most significant drop in nearly three years [1][2] Group 2 - The ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48.7 in April to 49.2 in May 2025, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating a lack of optimism among manufacturers regarding new orders [2] - Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have PMIs below 50, indicating ongoing contraction in their manufacturing activities [2][3] - The Philippines experienced nearly stagnant manufacturing growth in May, primarily due to a decrease in overseas orders and significant job losses [3] Group 3 - Thailand's manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 in April to 51.2 in May, marking its first expansion since February, with new orders increasing for the first time since December [3] - The manufacturing sectors in Japan and South Korea are also struggling, with Japan's PMI at 49.4 and South Korea's PMI remaining below the neutral level for four consecutive months [3][4] Group 4 - Some countries are heavily reliant on high export profits to the US, lacking preparedness for crises and alternative markets [4] - Input costs are rising due to high energy and raw material prices, with many companies unable to pass these costs onto consumers, squeezing profit margins [4] - The root causes of the manufacturing pressure in Asian countries extend beyond US tariff policies, including weak global demand and inflationary pressures in the US and Europe [4][5] Group 5 - Despite the manufacturing downturn, the Asia-Pacific stock markets have rebounded, with the KOSPI and Jakarta Composite Index entering technical bull markets [2][5] - From April 9 to June 5, significant gains were recorded in various indices, including a 22.6% increase in the KOSPI and a 22.7% increase in the Ho Chi Minh Index [5][6] - The strong performance of the stock markets is attributed to improved expectations for US interest rate cuts and a shift in capital allocation towards emerging markets [6]

澳新银行研究部称："美国贸易官员目前正在评估美国铜进口对当地产业的影响，未来几周将有报告出 炉。" 美元指数在盘中稍早触及的六周低点附近徘徊。 据证券时报网报道，6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得48.3，较4月下降2.1个 百分点。 其他金属方面，LME三个月期铝跌0.89%，至每吨2,444美元；三个月期锌跌0.44%，至2,686美元；三个 月期铅跌0.58%，至1,969.5美元；三个月期镍跌0.98%，至15,385美元。三个月期锡下跌0.52%，至 30,550美元。 SHMET 网讯： 伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下跌，因市场担心美国可能对铜加征关税，不过美元走软限制跌势。 北京时间16:47，LME三个月期铜下跌0.69%，至每吨9,550美元。 上海期货交易所主力期铜合约下跌0.13%，至每吨77,650元。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进 口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日起生效。 这再次引发市场对铜可能被征收关税的担忧。 沪铝报每吨19,860元，下 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to increased economic uncertainty from trade policies [2][3] - In May 2025, all categories of manufacturing output, new orders, employment, and unfilled orders decreased, although the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous month [2] - The export sales decline has significantly widened, and the inventory index fell into contraction territory due to companies preemptively purchasing in April out of tariff policy concerns [2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% has escalated tensions between the US and EU, contributing to global economic uncertainty [5] - The ISM reported that the supply delivery index rose to 56.1, indicating supply chain tensions caused by tariffs rather than strong economic demand [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and disappointing economic data has pressured asset prices, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [5] Group 3: Bond Market and Global Implications - The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds surged above 5.0%, influenced by poor economic data and concerns over increased government debt issuance [7] - Rising long-term bond yields could lead to higher mortgage rates, impacting household affordability and potentially dragging down overall economic performance [7][8] - If a weak emerging market defaults due to rising debt costs, it could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing global financial markets and hindering international trade and investment [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In light of the accumulating risks in the stock and bond markets, some investors, like Buffett, have shifted their portfolios to hold more cash and short-term bonds to mitigate potential losses [11]

据财新：6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得48.3，较4月下降2.1个百分点， 2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。 ...

登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：郝一凡 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 01 重要事件回顾——美国关税政策再遇反复 1、当地时间5月28日，美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普依据《国际紧急经 济权力法案》而宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗普越权。 2、当地时间5月29日，美国联邦上诉法院批准了特朗普政府的请求，暂时中止此前 一家下级法院禁止执行美政府多个关税行政令的裁决。白宫高级贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦 罗周四在对记者发表讲话时承诺，总统将继续寻找实施关税政策的途径，无论法院 是否裁决总统援引的最初授权合法 报告正文共计2013字 链接报告 总体来看，美国关税政策遭遇阻力，但预计最终特朗普团队仍将继续实施关税政 策，后续关税相关谈判、博弈仍有反复的可能。 02 周度行情回顾 (5.26-6.1) 债市先抑后扬 月末资金利率回升，受美国国际贸易法院叫停特朗普关税影响，十年期国债收益率一度 回升至1.7%，但24小时内美国联邦上诉法院暂时恢复关税政策，收益率冲高回落。 A股弱势震荡 A股震荡调整，抱团风格延续。 ... 3、国家统计局5月31日发布数据：5月，制造业采购经理指数（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in May shows signs of recovery, indicating an overall expansion in China's economy, while the non-manufacturing sector remains stable but slightly declines [1][6][8]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [1][3]. - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, suggesting an acceleration in manufacturing activities [5]. - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, with production and new order indices at 51.5% and 52.5%, respectively [5]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months, while energy-intensive industries show lower activity with a PMI of 47.0% [5][6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [8][11]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.2%, driven by increased consumer activity during the "May Day" holiday [10]. - The construction industry remains in expansion with a business activity index of 51.0%, although it has slightly decreased from the previous month [10][11]. Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for May is at 52.5%, reflecting stable confidence among manufacturing enterprises [6]. - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.5%, indicating ongoing optimism among service providers [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in April was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but still in the expansion range [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories decreased by 5050 tons to 174325 tons on May 19, while SHFE copper inventories increased by 27437 tons to 108142 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the reduction of high - level inventories, and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, copper prices are expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions shows a mixed situation, with the expectation of volatile copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not fully provided [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [20]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22]. Other Information - The data source of the report is Wind [10].

商务部回应中美经贸对话磋商情况：美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意 商务部新闻发言人2日表示，中方注意到美方高层多次表态，表示愿与中方就关税问题进行谈判。同 时，美方近期通过相关方面多次主动向中方传递信息，希望与中方谈起来。对此，中方正在进行评估。 有记者问：近期美方多次表示，正与中方就经贸问题进行谈判，并会达成协议，请问商务部对此有没有 进一步的消息和评论？商务部新闻发言人作出上述回应。 发言人表示，中方立场始终如一，打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。关税战、贸易战是由美方单方发起 的，美方想谈就应拿出谈的诚意，要在纠正错误做法、取消单边加征关税等问题上做好准备，拿出行 动。 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会30日发布数据，受前期制造业较快增长形成较高基 数叠加外部环境急剧变化等因素影响，4月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49%。从重点行业看， 高技术制造业PMI为51.5%，明显高于制造业总体水平，其生产指数和新订单指数均位于52%及以上， 高技术制造业延续较好发展态势。 巴菲特：贸易不应该是武器 美国著名投资人沃伦·巴菲特3日在出席旗下投资机构伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司年度股东大会时，批评美国 的贸易保护主 ...