日本央行审议委员中川顺子：过度的市场波动可能对日本经济带来下行压力。 ...

特朗普关税策略引发全球经济动荡，其"不确定性"或为极大化谈判筹码。 过去一周来，尽管受到美联储决议和大量期权到期的影响，标普、纳斯达克和罗素指数均小幅上涨，释放出"逐渐恢复正常"的信号。 不过，高盛交易员Mike Washington在最新的报告中指出： "虽然本土仓位受到的上行风险可以说大于下行风险，但在投资者扫清4月2日关税障碍以及对第一季度盈利有更清晰的解读之前，风险情绪仍将逐 日升温。" 此前， 见闻君曾分析指出 ，许多投资者将4月2日视为"恐慌巅峰日 " 。大摩、美银等机构也纷纷发出预警，认为全球投资者远未做好做空美国或全球股票 的准备，并预计华尔街的波动性可能至少持续到2025年下半年。 当前，有政策观察人士认为，4月2日是一个重要的时间节点——一旦跨过这一天，有了确定性，市场会平静下来。 4月2日后，市场真的可以高枕无忧了吗？ 关税的"不确定性"或成特朗普团队的谈判筹码 随着4月2日的"关税大限"即将来临，全球金融市场正在消化特朗普可能实施的大规模关税政策所带来的不确定性。 然而，据媒体报道援引经济学家和政策观察家分析， 这种不确定性很可能不是偶然，而是特朗普团队的刻意策略，旨在为未来谈判创造最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons why investors often find themselves in a cycle of waiting to break even rather than making profits, attributing this to market volatility, behavioral influences in investing, and underperforming fund products [1]. Market Volatility - Capital markets are inherently volatile, influenced by economic conditions, macro policies, industry cycles, and investor sentiment, leading to fluctuations in fund net values [2]. - Investors cannot predict market movements, and encountering a market downturn after purchasing funds can result in inevitable losses, forcing them to wait for a "break-even" point [2]. Behavioral Influences in Investing - **Mismatch of Risk Tolerance**: Investors often choose fund products that do not align with their risk tolerance. For instance, a cautious investor may opt for high-risk funds, leading to significant stress during market fluctuations [3]. - **Chasing Trends**: Many investors tend to buy funds based on market trends or recommendations, often purchasing at high points. For example, after the success of a media-related film, investors who bought into related funds at peak prices may face losses as the market corrects [5][6]. Underperforming Fund Products - Fund performance is crucial to investor returns. Some funds may underperform due to changes in market style or poor investment strategies by fund managers, resulting in potential losses for investors [7]. Recommendations for Improvement - Investors should clearly understand their risk tolerance and select funds accordingly, avoiding impulsive decisions based on trends or rumors [9]. - A rational investment approach is essential, emphasizing the importance of patience and long-term strategies rather than reacting to short-term market movements [9]. - Choosing high-quality fund products and professional fund managers can lead to better investment returns, highlighting the need to consider historical performance, investment strategies, and managerial expertise when selecting funds [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that despite recent market volatility, it is an opportune time for active investment, particularly in five identified companies that analysts recommend increasing their positions in [2][3]. Group 1: Nu Holdings (NU) - NU has strong earnings, with its current price providing a great investment opportunity despite external factors like the trade war and currency fluctuations affecting its perceived performance [4]. - NU's price-to-sales ratio is 3.3, and its average revenue per active customer (ARPAC) has increased by 23% year-over-year, indicating strong customer retention and growth potential in the Latin American fintech market [4]. Group 2: Lemonade (LMND) - LMND is disrupting a large market with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 3.2 and a year-over-year revenue growth of 29%, making it an attractive investment from a valuation perspective [6]. - The company has significant growth opportunities in the auto insurance market, which management believes could represent a tenfold opportunity, and it is also focusing on international and domestic expansion [6][7]. Group 3: TransMedics (TMDX) - TMDX has seen a significant stock price drop from $166 to $67, but recent earnings reports indicate strong demand for its products, with expected revenue growth of 15-20% compared to previous quarters [7]. - The company is likely to exceed market expectations, which could lead to a positive revision of its earnings guidance for fiscal year 2025 [7]. Group 4: Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon has shown strong performance with an 11% year-over-year revenue growth and an increase in free cash flow margin to 9.5% [8]. - The company is projected to dominate key markets such as e-commerce, cloud services, and digital advertising, with significant growth opportunities estimated for 2040 [9][10]. Group 5: MercadoLibre (MELI) - MercadoLibre, often referred to as the Amazon of Latin America, holds a substantial market share in e-commerce, logistics, fintech, and advertising [11]. - The Latin American e-commerce market is valued at $350 billion, with MercadoLibre capturing approximately 30% of this market, translating to a potential market opportunity of $420 billion [12].

Federal Programs and Social Security - Social Security checks and electronic payments will continue to be delivered during a government shutdown, ensuring retirees receive their monthly benefits [2] - Medicare and Medicaid programs are protected from funding shortfalls, meaning healthcare benefits will not be disrupted [2] SNAP and WIC Benefits - SNAP and WIC benefits can continue if the funding shutdown is not prolonged, although WIC may be more vulnerable due to its tight budget [3] Student Loans - A government shutdown could significantly impact student loan borrowers, as many Department of Education employees may be temporarily laid off, following a previous workforce reduction of about 50% [3] - While mandatory funding programs like Pell Grants and Federal Direct Student Loans can still make payments, this may only last as long as available funds [4] - Fewer federal employees could delay loan processing and forgiveness, complicating issue resolution for borrowers [5] Travel Services - Essential federal workers, including airport security and air traffic control, will continue working, but travelers should expect potential delays [5] - Passport and visa services will remain operational as long as fees are available, but delays in issuance may occur [6] Economic Impact - The economic impact of a government shutdown will depend on its duration, with delayed government payments potentially having a minor effect if resolved quickly [10] - A longer shutdown could delay the release of critical economic data, increasing the risk of missteps by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates [12] Investments - Investor sentiment may be negatively affected in the short term, particularly if the shutdown disrupts the Fed's rate-lowering agenda, leading to temporary market volatility [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong as a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainty [14] Government Paychecks - Nonessential federal employees will not be paid until the government reopens, and contractors may implement temporary employment cutbacks [15] Other Federal Services - The IRS will likely reduce staff during a shutdown, affecting phone support, but tax payments will still be collected [16] - Mail delivery services will remain unaffected, and federal courts will continue to operate [18]