Core Viewpoint - The consumption sector in China has shown significant recovery in Q1 2023, driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumer spending, particularly through the "trade-in" program for old appliances and electronics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Consumption Data - In Q1 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with March alone seeing a growth of 5.9% [1]. - Per capita consumption expenditure increased by 5.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP growth [1]. Group 2: Impact of Trade-in Policies - The trade-in policy has led to substantial sales increases, with 12 categories of home appliances seeing 47.47 million units traded in, and digital products like smartphones reaching 3.66 million units [3]. - Over 1.2 billion people have benefited from subsidies, driving sales exceeding 720 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Company Performance - Major appliance companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree reported double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with Haier achieving 791.2 billion yuan in revenue (up 10%) and Midea reaching 1.284 trillion yuan (up 20.6%) [4][5]. - Smaller companies also showed strong performance, with Beiding's revenue growing by 33.41% to 213 million yuan [4]. Group 4: Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption trends are emerging, including the popularity of trendy toys, cultural tourism, and the pet economy, driven by younger consumers [5][6]. - Companies in the trendy toy sector, such as Pop Mart, reported a revenue increase of 165% in Q1, with a 95% to 100% growth in the Chinese market [6]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The pet economy is also thriving, with companies like Guibao Pets achieving a revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, up 34.82% [7]. - The overall market for emotional value-driven products is expected to expand, supported by government policies and changing consumer preferences towards quality and experience [7][8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The retail sector is experiencing a rise in emotional consumption trends, with leading retail companies actively transforming through quality retail, cross-border trendy play, and co-branding with fashion IPs, which is expected to lead to performance recovery and valuation revaluation in the long term [4][30] - The report highlights the ongoing disclosure of annual and quarterly reports, indicating that high-quality companies in high-prosperity sectors are worth monitoring [4][27] - The retail index has shown a slight increase of 0.07% recently, but has decreased by 5.00% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the broader market [6][15] Summary by Sections Retail Market Review - The retail index closed at 2127.02 points, with a weekly increase of 0.07%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries [6][15] - The supermarket sector showed the largest increase this week, while the watch and jewelry sector has led the gains since the beginning of 2025 [18][21] Retail Insights: Focus on Beauty Care, Gold Jewelry, and Traditional Retail - The report emphasizes the performance divergence among companies in the cosmetics, medical beauty, gold jewelry, and traditional retail sectors, with a positive outlook for quality companies in the retail sector due to the recovery of consumer demand [27][30] - Key companies such as Yonghui Supermarket and Aiying Room are highlighted for their proactive transformation and potential for performance recovery [41][42] Key Company Performances - Proya achieved a 28.9% increase in net profit in Q1 2025, supported by a series of new product launches [47] - Yonghui Supermarket reported a revenue of 174.79 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 19.3% year-on-year, but is undergoing significant store renovations [30][46] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in high-prosperity segments, including Proya, Aiying Room, and gold jewelry brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji [44][42]

Core Viewpoint - The ultimate significance of investment is to overcome the growth of global money supply, which increases at a rate of 8% to 10% annually, and only the most scarce quality assets can transcend cycles [3][51][52]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The emergence of three new consumer demands: IP consumption, self-indulgent consumption, and domestic alternatives, indicates a shift in consumer behavior [82][75]. - IP consumption is identified as a global opportunity, driven by a societal rejection of reality and the rise of innovative supply methods, such as the influence of streaming platforms like Netflix [84][90]. - The manufacturing sector is undergoing a comprehensive upgrade, with companies transitioning from traditional products to advanced technologies, such as aerospace components [96][102]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "East Rising, West Falling" is observed, with significant changes in the US and Chinese markets, influenced by political and economic cycles [10][13][16]. - The Chinese market is expected to normalize in 2024, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than macroeconomic factors [53][75]. - The valuation gap between Chinese and US stocks is narrowing, with potential for further adjustments in the coming quarters [35][36]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The rise of self-indulgent consumption reflects a shift in consumer priorities, with companies achieving significant growth despite overall market challenges [95][117]. - The performance of domestic brands in high-end markets is improving, as evidenced by the success of products like Xiaomi's SU7 Ultra and the box office success of films like "Nezha 2" [93][94]. - The traditional consumer staples are being challenged by new entrants that focus on quality and innovation, indicating a transformation in the competitive landscape [96][95]. Group 4: AI and Technology - The application of AI is expected to explode as technology becomes more accessible, with Chinese companies likely to replicate and accelerate the advancements made in the US [109][110]. - The hardware sector in the US faces challenges as capital expenditures rise, leading to potential market corrections [121][125]. - The aviation industry presents strategic opportunities, particularly in the production of aircraft engines, which are expected to see increased demand and profitability [128][130].

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 以上是 浑瑾资本李岳 在 4月14日的一场线上路演中分享的最新观点。 在 AI大趋势如火如荼的当下，李岳从消费中看到了更多的机会。 "投资这件事的终极意义在于战胜货币供应量，全球货币供应量是以每年8%～10%的速度在增长，只有全球最稀缺的优质资产才能穿越周期。" "打个比方，美国人是用龙虾、鲍鱼才能做出了米其林，中国人用小米粥就熬出了米其林。所以，出现了 科技平权。 " " 以往消费刚需聚焦于衣食住行，未来则涌现出三大新刚需： IP消费、悦己消费以及国产平替。" 成立浑瑾之前， 2009年至2011年 李岳 曾在华夏基金担任消费行业分析师和国际业务部研究副主管 ， 2011年加入高瓴，于2020年 离任，离开 时是高 瓴二级市场大消费组合的负责人，主导超过百亿美元基金的大消费板块投资工作。 在过往十几年的投资生涯中， 李岳 专注于大消费领域，以及制造业等投研工作。 在本次交流会中，通过李岳对于大量公司案例的分析，不难看出他对这些领域的生意非常了解。 尤其是对于新消费中 IP消费的理解，李岳并非简单探讨了趋势，而是从本质出发，理解 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, 卡游, is advancing its IPO process in Hong Kong, capitalizing on favorable market conditions and its strong market position in the entertainment and toy sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Environment and IPO Context - The external environment has shifted favorably for 卡游, with younger consumers driving demand for emotional and social consumption [1]. - The company aims to leverage the current market dynamics to accelerate its expansion and showcase its unique business model of "content-driven consumption" [1]. - The Hong Kong market is increasingly welcoming to new economy enterprises, particularly those with high growth potential [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, 卡游 achieved total revenue of 10.057 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 278% year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit reached 4.466 billion yuan, marking a 378% surge compared to 2023, reflecting the success of its diversified strategy [2]. Group 3: IP Diversification Strategy - 卡游 employs a dual-track model of "licensed IP monetization" and "original IP ecosystem extension," which provides both short-term certainty and long-term growth potential [3]. - As of December 31, 2024, 卡游 has a portfolio of 70 IPs, with 69 being licensed, contributing over 85% of total revenue from the top five licensed IP products [3][4]. - The company has established long-term relationships with key IP partners, ensuring revenue stability from core IPs [4]. Group 4: Product Diversification - 集换式卡牌 (trading card games) constitute over 90% of 卡游's total sales, with revenue from this segment growing from 3.93 billion yuan to 8.2 billion yuan, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 27.8% [8]. - The company has successfully expanded into peripheral products and cross-category offerings, tapping into the growing market for related merchandise [8][9]. - 卡游's flexible supply chain and operational capabilities enable rapid product development across multiple categories, enhancing its competitive edge [10]. Group 5: User Engagement and Market Strategy - The company has demonstrated exceptional sensitivity in user operations, effectively targeting demographic shifts through data-driven marketing strategies [12]. - By integrating IP diversification as a content engine and product diversification as a growth lever, 卡游 has established a robust business model that combines card sales with derivative product expansion [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of new consumption companies listed in Hong Kong, with many achieving significant stock price increases and attracting investor attention amid ongoing market fluctuations [2][4][13]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On March 27, several new consumption companies saw substantial stock price increases, including Wei Long (up 11.43%), San Sheng Pharmaceutical (up 10.91%), Pop Mart (up 9.24%), Lao Pu Gold (up 9.23%), and Mao Ge Ping (up 9%) [5][6][7][8]. - Wei Long's stock has risen 92.22% year-to-date, driven by its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect and strong sales performance, with a 30% sales growth in early 2025 [5][9]. - San Sheng Pharmaceutical's stock has increased 97.37% year-to-date, with a reported revenue of 9.108 billion yuan for 2024, a 16.5% increase year-on-year [9][10]. - Pop Mart's stock has surged over 71% year-to-date, with a market capitalization of 206.4 billion HKD and a revenue of 13.04 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 106.9% year-on-year growth [10][11]. - Lao Pu Gold's stock has nearly doubled year-to-date, with a projected net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan for 2024, representing a 236% to 260% increase [12][13]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The "self-indulgent consumption" sector, including spicy snacks, unique gold jewelry, trendy toys, cosmetics, and male grooming products, is gaining traction among investors [14][15]. - Investment firms are increasingly focusing on the new consumption sector, with some managers already allocating positions to these companies, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards non-essential purchases [16][17]. - The article notes a K-shaped recovery in domestic consumption, where sectors like pet food and self-indulgent consumption are thriving, while traditional consumer goods face pressure [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Young consumers are increasingly knowledgeable about alcoholic beverages, moving from casual drinking to a more informed and personalized selection process [3][19]. Group 1: Changing Consumption Habits - Previously, young consumers selected alcoholic beverages based on social norms and convenience, often opting for popular brands without much thought [2][12]. - The shift towards a more discerning approach is evident, with consumers now researching different types of wines and spirits, including lesser-known varieties from specific regions [5][10]. Group 2: Emergence of Professional Players - The rise of "professional players" in the alcohol market reflects a growing interest in niche products, with consumers exploring unique offerings such as small-batch wines and craft beers [4][6]. - The availability of diverse products and the expansion of e-commerce platforms have facilitated this trend, allowing consumers to access previously hard-to-find items [7][8]. Group 3: E-commerce and Accessibility - The growth of cross-border e-commerce has significantly increased the variety of alcoholic beverages available to consumers, with platforms like Tmall International expanding their offerings by over 40% year-on-year [8][9]. - This accessibility has lowered the barriers for consumers to experiment with different types of alcohol, fostering a culture of exploration and appreciation [9][11]. Group 4: Shift in Drinking Motivations - Young consumers are increasingly prioritizing the quality and experience of drinking over mere social consumption, reflecting a desire for personal expression and cultural engagement [10][12]. - The trend towards "self-drinking" at home is rising, as consumers seek to enjoy high-quality beverages in a more relaxed setting, often sharing their experiences online [15][17]. Group 5: Willingness to Invest in Quality - Consumers are willing to spend on premium products, emphasizing the importance of value and personal satisfaction in their purchasing decisions [17][18]. - The market is witnessing a growing acceptance of diverse preferences, with more women showing interest in traditionally male-dominated categories like whiskey [18][19]. Group 6: Future of the Alcohol Market - The evolving landscape of alcohol consumption reflects broader societal changes, with young consumers redefining the meaning of enjoying a drink as a form of self-expression and lifestyle choice [19][20]. - The trend towards increased professionalism and knowledge in the alcohol sector is expected to continue, indicating a vibrant future for the industry [20].