Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to decline significantly. The export window may close again due to the rebound of the Shanghai-London ratio [3]. - The downstream market is entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots due to policy support [3]. - The zinc price is expected to have a strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support level of 23,000 yuan/ton and the upper resistance level of 23,400 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 23,230 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc price is 3,096.5 dollars/ton, up 18.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 201,880 lots, up 3,161 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 3,793 lots, up 514 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 76,017 tons, down 4,560 tons; the LME inventory is 98,975 tons, down 275 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 23,260 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 23,350 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 29.14 dollars/ton, up 4.29 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,010 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 1.192 million tons, up 500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 15.64%, down 3.2%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option is 13.16%, down 3.2% [3]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15.64%, down 3.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option is 11.65%, down 0.2% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference plans to stabilize the real estate market in 2026, control the increment, reduce the inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions [3]. - The US GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the core PCE increased by 2.9%. The October durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month [3]. - Trump proposed conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates, and some people suggested adjusting the inflation target [3].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to have significant growth potential, with ongoing urbanization and evolving housing demands from new citizens [2][14] Group 1: Real Estate Market Potential - The overall judgment from the housing and urban-rural development department indicates that "real estate still has considerable growth potential" [2][13] - In 2025, the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes is expected to remain stable, but regional market trends will show divergence, with varying price movements across cities [2][13] - The potential for growth is driven by factors such as the housing needs of newly settled migrant workers and graduates, as well as the demand for upgrading existing housing [2][14] Group 2: Key Deployment Areas - The first focus is on optimizing supply by implementing city-specific strategies to control inventory and improve housing quality, including the repurposing of existing land for affordable housing [4][16] - The second focus is on stabilizing the market through measures such as supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies and allowing local governments to adjust policies to support housing demand [5][16] - The third focus is on transforming the development model of real estate, which includes reforms in housing fund systems and the promotion of real-time sales to mitigate delivery risks [6][16] Group 3: Urban Renewal Initiatives - Significant progress in urban renewal is anticipated, with numerous projects being implemented, including the completion of 106 community pilot projects and the construction of over 2,000 service facilities [7][17] - In 2026, various civil engineering and development projects will be executed, enhancing urban infrastructure and public spaces [9][19] - Improvements will be visible in urban management, with a focus on addressing community issues and enhancing governance through effective resource allocation [10][20]

Core Insights - The national housing and urban construction work conference highlighted the achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and outlined key tasks for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development in housing and urban construction by 2025 and the stabilization of the real estate market by 2026 [1][6] Group 1: Urban Renewal Progress - Significant progress has been made in urban renewal during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with over 240,000 old urban residential areas renovated, benefiting more than 41 million households and 110 million people [2] - 130,000 elevators were added, and 167,000 old elevators were updated, along with the addition of 3.5 million parking spaces and 65,000 community service facilities [2] - 840,000 kilometers of underground pipelines for water, gas, and heating were updated, and over 20,000 pocket parks and 2,700 kilometers of urban greenways were created [2] Group 2: Housing Delivery and Improvement - The completion of housing delivery tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" was emphasized, with approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties sold and over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing constructed, benefiting over 30 million people [3] - A total of 6.5 trillion yuan in personal housing loans from the housing provident fund were issued, supporting 9.4 trillion yuan in withdrawals for housing consumption [3] - The meeting stressed the importance of addressing housing issues as both a livelihood and development concern, aiming to stabilize the real estate market and improve housing conditions [3] Group 3: Construction Industry Status - The construction industry is recognized as a crucial pillar of the national economy, maintaining a GDP contribution of over 6.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on modernization and international projects [4] - The need for systemic reforms in the construction industry was highlighted, aiming to enhance the quality of building products and cultivate a modern workforce [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The meeting acknowledged significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, with ongoing urbanization and rising expectations for quality housing [5] - The importance of viewing the new and second-hand housing markets as a whole was emphasized, with a call for tailored policies to ensure sustainable development [5] Group 5: Stabilization of the Real Estate Market - The focus for 2026 includes stabilizing the real estate market through city-specific policies, inventory reduction, and optimizing supply [7] - The meeting called for the effective use of local government powers in real estate regulation and the support of both rigid and improved housing demands [7] - A new model for real estate development is to be established, emphasizing transparency in property sales and the protection of buyers' rights [7]

新华财经北京12月24日电（记者高婷）12月22日至23日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开，全面盘点2025年工作，系统总结"十四五"时期住房城乡 建设事业发展成就，研究部署"十五五"时期和2026年重点任务。 会议强调，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，做好住房城乡建设工作意义重大。2026年，要着力抓好推进现代化人民城市建设、着力稳定房地产市场、加快建 筑业提质升级、夯实高质量发展基础支撑4方面工作。 转自：新华财经 58安居客研究院院长张波进一步表示，房企转型将依托三项制度实现资金稳健化，有效降杠杆、拓宽融资渠道，同时，聚焦"好房子"建设。他认为，房企 应从房子建造者转向全周期服务者，强化物业与社区运营。从58安居客线上数据来看，有良好口碑的项目往往会比周边同类二手房价溢价10%-15%，找房 热度也会保持高位。 我国房地产发展仍有较大潜力和空间 12月16日，住房城乡建设部部长倪虹发表署名文章表示，房地产产业链条长、关联度高，经过20多年快速发展，有力支撑了我国城镇化和经济社会发展。 2024年房地产业和建筑业增加值占国内生产总值的比重合计达13%。长远看，我国房地产发展仍有较大潜力和空间。 记者重 ...

央视网消息：近日，全国住房城乡建设工作会议在北京召开。"十四五"期间房地产市场总体情况如何？明年，房地产市场将重点围绕哪些方面持续发 力？ 中央经济工作会议指出，要着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策"控增量、去库存、优供给"。住房城乡建设部表示，2026年将从供地、收储等多个方面来着 力稳定房地产市场。 住房城乡建设部部长 倪虹：房地产过剩的城市要停止通过征地来新增房地产用地，重点结合城市更新、城中村改造盘活利用存量的土地，推动收购存 量商品房用于保障性住房、安置房、（学校）宿舍、人才房等。 住房城乡建设部表示，"十四五"期间，全国累计销售新建商品住宅约50亿平方米，建设筹集各类保障性住房和城中村、城市危旧房改造等安置住房1100 多万套（间）、惠及3000多万群众，保交楼、保交房任务全面完成。"十五五"时期，要准确把握房地产市场供求关系的重大变化，推动房地产高质量发展。 住房城乡建设部部长 倪虹：长远看，我国新型城镇化仍在持续推进，城市存量优化调整还有广阔的空间，房地产拥有较大的发展潜力，二手房交易占 比上升是今后一个时期的趋势。 针对房地产发展新模式，倪虹指出，要处理好当前和长远、顶层设计和因城施策、市场和保障 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Xi Jinping emphasized the responsibilities of central enterprises to better serve the national agenda and contribute to high-quality economic development, urging them to focus on core functions and enhance competitiveness [2] - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of central enterprises in advancing new infrastructure construction and ensuring the self-sufficiency of industrial and supply chains, while also calling for deeper reforms in state-owned enterprises [3] - The National Housing and Urban-Rural Development Conference acknowledged the significant changes in the real estate market and emphasized the potential for further development, advocating for a new model of real estate development that meets public housing needs [4] Group 2: International News - The U.S. GDP for Q3 grew by 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%, with consumer spending showing strong growth at 3.5%, indicating robust economic expansion despite rising borrowing costs [5] - U.S. durable goods orders fell by 2.2% in October, significantly below the expected decline of 1.5%, although year-on-year growth remained at 4.7%, indicating resilience in manufacturing orders [6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of strength with a notable entry of configuration funds, leading to a decline in yields for 10-year government bonds to 1.8350% and 10-year policy bank bonds to 1.898% [11] - The convertible bond market experienced adjustments, with major indices declining and a majority of individual bonds falling, indicating a mixed performance in the market [17] Group 4: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude up by approximately 0.64% to $58.38 per barrel, and natural gas prices surged over 10% [7] Group 5: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 593 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos [8] - The funding rates remained low, with DR001 and DR007 declining to 1.269% and 1.411% respectively, indicating a continued loose monetary environment [9]

Core Insights - The national housing and urban construction work conference emphasized the importance of housing and urban development for 2026, focusing on modernizing urban construction, stabilizing the real estate market, upgrading the construction industry, and ensuring high-quality development [1][2] Group 1: Urban Development - The conference highlighted the transition of urbanization in China from rapid growth to stable development, with a focus on improving existing urban areas rather than expanding [2] - Emphasis was placed on the "people's city" concept, which prioritizes the needs and participation of residents in urban development [2] - The need for high-quality urban governance was stressed, advocating for innovative governance models and increased investment in urban management [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The meeting recognized significant changes in the supply-demand relationship in the real estate market, noting the ongoing new urbanization and the potential for optimizing existing urban stock [3] - The rise in the proportion of second-hand housing transactions was identified as a trend, suggesting a need to view the new and second-hand housing markets as a unified entity [3] - A new model for real estate development is to be established, focusing on ensuring housing security for residents while balancing various market dynamics [3][4] Group 3: Risk Management and Policy Implementation - The conference called for a dual approach to risk management and transformation, emphasizing the need to prevent and mitigate real estate company debt risks while ensuring the protection of homebuyers' rights [4] - It was recommended to optimize the supply of affordable housing and tailor policies to meet the needs of various demographics, including new citizens and young workers [4] - The importance of upgrading old residential areas and addressing urgent housing issues for the public was highlighted, aiming to enhance safety and living conditions [4]

近日召开的全国住房城乡建设工作会议，在全面盘点2025年工作时指出，"好房子"建设起步成 势。从内容看，住建部年初提出的"好房子"三个抓手，即"立标准、强科技、抓项目"取得了积 极成效。比如，新的《住宅项目规范》正式实施，构建了"6633"（六不、六防、三省、三 要）、"365"（三用、六优、五支撑）等"好房子"的建造体系；指导行业领军企业发挥示范作 用，以"揭榜挂帅"等推动50多类新型建材研发应用；举办全国"好房子"设计大赛。 同时，2025年"好房子"探索还不止于此。会议还提出，42个城市实施房屋全生命周期安全管理 制度试点。一体化推进好房子、好小区、好社区、好城区建设，开展物业服务领域突出问题集 中整治，推动问题整改。完成106个完整社区试点，建设改造养老、托育等各类服务设施2000 多个，新增停车位2.6万个，增补提升公共活动场地和公共绿地71.3万平方米。可见，"好房 子"探索从标准建立和物质技术等硬件层面，延展至好服务和好配套等软件方面。 可以讲，"好房子"建设在起步上的势头很好。今年以来，各类"好房子"项目成为新房销售市场 的一抹亮色，不仅引领市场供给，夯实居住属性和高质量发展的基础，还激发了美 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and accelerating the construction of a new development model for real estate [1] - In 2023, the concept of a "new development model" for real estate was proposed, focusing on supply and demand reforms and debt resolution for real estate companies [1] - The high-quality development of real estate in China has significant potential, with ongoing repairs to both supply and demand sides and the gradual removal of unreasonable restrictive policies [1][2] Group 2 - The political bureau meetings throughout the year highlighted the importance of preventing and resolving risks in key areas, with real estate being a critical focus for expanding domestic demand [2] - Major measures to stabilize the real estate market include risk resolution, urban renewal, and increasing the supply of high-quality housing [2][3] - Cities have implemented various policies to stimulate demand, including reforms to the provident fund system and the cancellation of sales restrictions [2] Group 3 - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have relaxed purchase restrictions, significantly enhancing market vitality [3] - The central economic work conference indicates a potential further loosening of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a "bottom line" in real estate [3][4] - The focus on stabilizing the market and resolving risks is expected to create a safer development environment for the real estate industry [4] Group 4 - The debt restructuring of several real estate companies has progressed, improving the overall health of the industry [4] - Kincai Real Estate Group, with a debt scale of 147 billion yuan, successfully completed its restructuring plan, marking a significant milestone in risk resolution for large real estate firms [4] - By November, 21 distressed real estate companies had completed debt restructuring, with a total debt resolution scale of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [4] Group 5 - Financial support for real estate projects continues to strengthen, with the "Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism" being a key tool [5][6] - The focus on improving the regulatory environment for home purchase funds and enhancing financing policies is expected to better protect project construction and delivery [6] Group 6 - The fundamental role of real estate is to serve the housing needs of the people, with an emphasis on providing higher quality products and enhancing urban living standards [7] - The central urban work conference outlined future urban development directions, focusing on creating livable, innovative, and sustainable cities [7][8] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes optimizing the supply of affordable housing and improving housing quality, aligning with the public's aspirations for better living conditions [8]

Core Insights - The national housing and urban-rural development conference has outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for local governments to effectively utilize their autonomy in real estate regulation and to timely adjust and optimize real estate policies [1][2] - A new model for real estate development is to be established, focusing on the implementation of a project company system in real estate development and a sponsoring bank system in real estate financing [1] - The promotion of a "see-and-buy" system for commercial housing sales aims to fundamentally mitigate delivery risks [1] Industry Performance - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, real estate development investment in China has decreased by 15.9% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, marking the largest decline of the year and a significant increase from the 10.4% decline in the same period last year [1] - The housing market in China has been persistently sluggish, prompting the Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development to stress the importance of stabilizing the real estate market through city-specific policies aimed at controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and improving supply [2] - Strategies include revitalizing existing land through urban renewal and village reconstruction, as well as promoting the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing [2]