Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by multiple factors, with the US soybean market being undervalued and supply exceeding demand, while the domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation. The domestic soybean meal market is in a season of supply surplus, and the spot may start destocking in September [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market has seen an increase in exports in Malaysia, and the market is supported by factors such as the potential of the Indonesian B50 policy, but the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations [7][9]. - The sugar market is expected to see a decline in the price of Zhengzhou sugar in the future, considering factors such as increased import supply and expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season [11][12]. - The cotton market has seen a short - term rebound in prices due to the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, but the downstream consumption is average, and the price may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14][15]. - The egg market has a large supply scale, and the egg price is weaker than expected in the peak season. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [16][17]. - The pig market has a situation where the spot price is weak while the futures price is strong. The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Conditions**: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 108,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus, and the downstream inventory days increased by 0.32 days to 8.37 days. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - scale upward oscillation [2][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the mixed long and short factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, as well as the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new supply - side drivers [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and Indonesia distributed about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel in the first half of 2025. Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% month - on - month, and the inventory increased by 4.02% [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the central price of oils, and the palm oil market may maintain stable inventory in the 7 - 9 months and has an upward expectation in the fourth quarter. However, due to multiple restrictive factors, the market should be viewed as oscillatory [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday, and the spot prices of various sugar - making groups increased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of August had an average daily export volume 2% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the continuous increase in import supply in the second half of the year, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is more likely to decline in the future, assuming no significant rebound in the outer - market price [12]. Cotton - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rebound on Wednesday. The USDA report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption estimates, and a decrease in the ending inventory [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Driven by the USDA report and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level, but the downstream consumption is average [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas making small adjustments. The supply remained stable, and the market digestion was average [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply scale is large, and the egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term price may fluctuate, and the medium - term focus is on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [17]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price mainly increased slightly, and the downstream increment was not obvious, so the continuous price increase is difficult [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: The medium - and long - term contracts are recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the inter - monthly spread shorting opportunities for the far - month contracts [20].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 45.60 CNY as of August 12 [1]. Core Views - The company, Zhuoyue New Energy, is a leading domestic producer of ester-based biodiesel, with a focus on expanding production capacity and enhancing overseas sales channels. The growth is driven by the increasing output of fatty alcohols and the establishment of new projects [7][8]. Company Overview - Zhuoyue New Energy was established in 2001 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2019. It is the first company in China to industrialize the production of biodiesel from waste oils and has maintained the largest production and sales scale in the domestic biodiesel market. The company has been exporting products since 2009, with significant sales to South Korea and Taiwan, and has achieved ISCC certification for direct sales to the EU [7][12]. - The company has a total production capacity of 500,000 tons of biodiesel and 140,000 tons of bio-based materials as of 2024. New projects include a 50,000-ton natural fatty alcohol project expected to start production in April 2025 and a 100,000-ton hydrocarbon biodiesel project set to begin construction in Q3 2023, with a planned production start in December 2025 [7][22]. Industry Perspective - The report highlights that the demand for biodiesel in the EU is expected to increase due to the RED III policy, which mandates a higher share of renewable energy in total energy consumption. In China, the biodiesel consumption is currently low, but there is significant market potential if the B5 policy is implemented nationwide [8][26]. - The company is adapting to changes in the export landscape, with a shift towards Southeast Asian markets and a focus on establishing self-operated sales networks in key trade ports [8][26]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The revenue projections for Zhuoyue New Energy are 44.61 billion CNY, 54.69 billion CNY, and 68.55 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding net profits are expected to be 3.57 billion CNY, 4.69 billion CNY, and 5.81 billion CNY [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's robust financial health, with a low debt ratio of 21.51% and a net asset value of 23.79 CNY per share [1].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] Group 2: Research Analysts - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Group 3: Market Review - P2509: Previous settlement price 9078, opening price 9246, highest price 9388, lowest price 9224, closing price 9362, up 284, up 3.13%, volume 443030, open interest 270663, open interest change -29322 [7] - P2601: Previous settlement price 9106, opening price 9254, highest price 9432, lowest price 9252, closing price 9396, up 290, up 3.18%, volume 407076, open interest 380486, open interest change 68812 [7] - Y2509: Previous settlement price 8410, opening price 8486, highest price 8520, lowest price 8422, closing price 8488, up 18, up 0.93%, volume 140203, open interest 306250, open interest change -28769 [7] - Y2601: Previous settlement price 8400, opening price 8440, highest price 8510, lowest price 8410, closing price 8476, up 16, up 0.90%, volume 408640, open interest 682979, open interest change 19822 [7] - OI609: Previous settlement price 9596, opening price 9699, highest price 9848, lowest price 9596, closing price 9802, up 242, up 2.53%, volume 271285, open interest 117479, open interest change -8561 [7] - OI601: Previous settlement price 9557, opening price 9605, highest price 9850, lowest price 9557, closing price 9810, up 253, up 2.65%, volume 271777, open interest 255572, open interest change 53304 [7] - Basis prices: Dongguan tertiary rapeseed oil in August: OI2509 + 80; Dongguan first - grade rapeseed oil in August: OI2509 + 220; East China market soybean oil basis price from August - September: Y2509 + 220, from October - November: Y2601 + 270, from October - January: Y2601 + 280, from February - May: Y2605 + 280; East China 24 - degree spot P09 + 40 yuan/ton, 11 - month shipment P01 + 120 yuan/ton; South China 24 - degree P09 + 20 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - The bullish sentiment in the oil and fat market is strong, with large - scale capital inflows into the three major oils, and futures prices hitting new highs for the year. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is bullish for rapeseed oil in terms of market sentiment. Soybean oil is promising in the long - term due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, possible reduction in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and recovering domestic demand. Palm oil continues to strengthen due to increased export. There is little room for a sharp short - term decline in the three major domestic oils, with a bullish outlook and recommendation to hold long - dated basis contracts [8] Group 5: Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase from 366,482 tons in the same period in July [9] - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada. Temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of deposit will be implemented starting August 14, with the dumping margin for Canadian companies at 75.8% [8][9] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures include East China tertiary rapeseed oil spot price, East China quaternary soybean oil spot price, South China 24 - degree palm oil spot price, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][19][26][30]

Report Overview - **Industry**: Oil and fat [1] - **Date**: August 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July reached a two - year high of 2.11 million tons, but the inventory build - up was less than expected, making the report bullish. Palm oil prices rose strongly in the afternoon, with the main contract P2601 hitting a new high for the year. Rapeseed oil has sufficient near - term supply, but fewer far - month purchases support the futures price. Its trend lacks a clear driver and follows the market. Due to the abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans, factories will maintain high operating rates, and soybean oil inventory may increase, dragging down soybean oil prices. However, the long - term outlook is positive due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, a possible decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and a recovery in domestic demand. China's three major oils are unlikely to see a significant short - term decline, and it is advisable to hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2509: The previous settlement price was 9012, the opening price was 8974, the highest price was 9236, the lowest price was 8912, the closing price was 8218, with a gain of 206 (2.29%). The trading volume was 299,988, and the position decreased by 5,290. - P2601: The previous settlement price was 9026, the opening price was 9000, the highest price was 9246, the lowest price was 8944, the closing price was 9238, with a gain of 212 (2.35%). The trading volume was 372,378, and the position increased by 52,216. - Y2509: The previous settlement price was 8408, the opening price was 8384, the highest price was 8470, the lowest price was 8352, the closing price was 8456, with a gain of 48 (0.57%). The trading volume was 164,012, and the position decreased by 29,250. - Y2601: The previous settlement price was 8396, the opening price was 8376, the highest price was 8460, the lowest price was 8334, the closing price was 8440, with a gain of 44 (0.52%). The trading volume was 452,116, and the position increased by 20,826. - OI2509: The previous settlement price was 9560, the opening price was 9552, the highest price was 9612, the lowest price was 9512, the closing price was 9588, with a gain of 28 (0.29%). The trading volume was 194,113, and the position decreased by 14,440. - OI2601: The previous settlement price was 9543, the opening price was 9544, the highest price was 9605, the lowest price was 9506, the closing price was 9593, with a gain of 50 (0.52%). The trading volume was 142,492, and the position increased by 22,198 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Bullish on the three major oils in the short - term, hold far - month basis contracts [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysia's July Palm Oil Data (MPOB)**: - Production was 1.8124 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons (7.09%) compared to June. - Imports were 61,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (12.82%) compared to June. - Exports were 1.3091 million tons, an increase of 48,100 tons (3.82%) compared to June. - End - of - month inventory was 2.1133 million tons, an increase of 81,700 tons (4.02%) compared to June. - **Malaysia's August 1 - 10 Palm Oil Exports (AmSpec)**: Exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to the same period in July [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis change, soybean oil basis change, rapeseed oil basis change, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - Chinese yuan exchange rate, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][19][26]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the oilseed and fats market, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China tariff negotiations on global agricultural markets, especially soybeans and palm oil [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: - COMEX and LME inventory pressures are increasing, which may lead to the elimination of price differentials between the two exchanges. Oil and gold prices are experiencing low volatility, indicating potential trading opportunities under external shocks [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs**: - Post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, extreme risks have not escalated, but retaliatory policies continue to affect global agricultural markets. North American soybean supply is decreasing while overseas palm oil prices are rising, making the fourth quarter's domestic soybean supply-demand balance critical [1][3]. 3. **Soybean Supply and Demand**: - The expectation of a bumper crop in South America is suppressing prices, while domestic soybean meal faces inventory pressure and tight expectations for the fourth quarter. Current enterprise inventories have exceeded one million tons, limiting the upward price movement of soybean meal [1][4]. 4. **U.S. Soybean Production**: - The new season's U.S. soybean yield is at a record level of 52.5 bushels per acre, up 4% from the previous year, despite a 4% reduction in planting area. However, due to tariff uncertainties, U.S. soybean exports are significantly lagging, with the latest annual export forecast at 47 million tons, which is below expectations and may be further downgraded [5][7]. 5. **China's Soybean Imports**: - China is expected to import approximately 59.8 million tons of soybeans from May to September 2025, an increase from 55 million tons in 2024. This increment will provide inventory buffer for the fourth quarter. If no U.S. soybeans are imported in the fourth quarter, a gap of about 2.5 million tons may arise, but it can be managed through tight balance due to Brazilian export potential and domestic stocks [1][13]. 6. **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: - Palm oil prices have recently surged due to better-than-expected Malaysian inventory data and increased exports. The key to the global palm oil price recovery lies in the restoration of Indonesian inventories, with the B40 biodiesel policy in Indonesia expected to support domestic consumption [1][16][17]. 7. **Future Trends in Oilseed Market**: - The oilseed market is influenced by various factors, including the increase in U.S. biofuel blending ratios and the seasonal impact of weather changes. These factors will collectively determine the future direction of the oilseed market [6]. 8. **Competition from South America**: - Brazil's record soybean production and exports have intensified competition for U.S. soybeans, with Brazil exporting 69 million tons from March to July 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year. This situation raises concerns about the U.S. export outlook [9][12]. 9. **Domestic Consumption Challenges**: - Despite U.S. policies to boost domestic consumption through biofuels, the loss of Chinese demand creates a significant gap that cannot be fully compensated. The EPA's increase in biodiesel blending ratios is not sufficient to offset the lost demand from China [9][12]. 10. **Market Sentiment**: - The soybean meal market is experiencing increased trading volume and price expectations, reflecting strong market sentiment for future price increases. The outcome of U.S.-China trade relations will significantly impact market dynamics [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for large-scale imports of Argentine soybean meal remains uncertain due to possible impacts on the domestic crushing industry, necessitating ongoing monitoring of policy changes [14]. - The competitive pricing of Argentine soybean meal and Brazilian soybeans poses challenges for U.S. exports, with Argentine soybean meal priced at approximately 2,880 yuan per ton, making it more competitive than domestic prices [15].

农产品早报 2025-08-11 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五夜盘美豆小幅下跌，天气较好及美豆缺乏中国买船持续施压，豆粕则因缺乏美豆买船巴西报价强 势获得成本支撑，目前运行在保本价附近。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2910 元/吨，上周豆粕成交 较好，提货小幅回落，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.32 天至 8.37 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 217.75 万吨，本周预计压榨 236.95 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏好。巴西方面，升贴水上涨后近两日稳定。总体来看，美国大豆处于低估 值、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，近期持续未有利好提供导致美豆可能试探前低水平。 国内大豆进口成本则处于因 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The strong pattern of oils is difficult to change in the short - term due to factors such as the low inventory of oils in the same period over the years, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand, and the potential insufficiency of palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia. However, the upside space is limited by factors like the annual - level oil production increase expectation, high near - term palm oil production, and uncertain RVO rules. Palm oil is expected to be range - bound, with a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, rapeseed oil fluctuated, while palm oil and soybean oil rose. The net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils oscillated near historical highs. Malaysian palm oil may have slightly increased its inventory in July due to rising production and declining exports. Ex - market rapeseed prices entered a range - bound pattern after a high - level correction. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil widened [11]. - **International Oils**: The USDA July report estimated an increase of about 1.5 million tons in US industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season. Canadian rapeseed farmers' shipments decreased, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade pressured rapeseed prices. India may start a replenishment process, supporting palm oil export demand [11]. - **Domestic Oils**: In July, soybean oil had good sales, while palm oil sales were weak. The total domestic oil inventory was about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, palm oil export willingness will increase, and rapeseed oil will gradually reduce its inventory [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. No specific arbitrage strategy is recommended [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of different contracts and the seasonal basis, which helps analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][24][27] 3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [30][31][32][33] - **Palm - growing Region Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - growing regions, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [35][37] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: Charts show the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [43] - **Individual Oil Inventory and Profit**: Charts present the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the spot average crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [46][48][49][51] 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [54] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: Charts display the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [57] 6. Demand Side - **Oils Transaction**: Charts show the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [60] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts present the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that the prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as weather, international and domestic supply - demand, and macro - economic policies. For example, the soybean market is influenced by export data and weather conditions in the US and Brazil, while the palm oil market is affected by the biodiesel policy in Indonesia [1][8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market - The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, etc. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 10 is 4284.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.61% and an overnight increase of 1.01% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of major currencies are also given, such as the US dollar index at 98.07, down 0.14% [1]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9060, with a basis of 120 and no change in the basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premiums of imported soybeans from different origins are presented, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 315 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 478 dollars per ton [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1. Weather in Producing Areas - The future weather outlook (August 12 - 16) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures and precipitation are generally higher. Most states have above - normal temperatures and precipitation, with some exceptions [4][5]. - In the US Midwest, soil moisture is well - maintained due to showers. The western part has scattered showers before Sunday, and temperatures will be near to above normal from Wednesday to Sunday. The eastern part will be mostly dry until the cold front arrives next week [6]. 3.2. International Supply - Demand - Malaysia's palm oil giant expects the price of crude palm oil to remain stable at around 4000 ringgit per ton for the rest of the year, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel policy [8]. - As of August 5, about 3% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, down from 5% the previous week and 4% last year [9]. - Analysts' average forecasts for USDA's August supply - demand report show expected changes in global and US soybean inventories, production, and yields [10]. - As of July 31, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales data were released, with soybean export sales net increasing by 101.29 tons, higher than expected [11][12]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area is expected to grow at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, with an estimated production of 1.6656 billion tons [12]. - Anec predicts Brazil's August exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and corn [13]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to reach 5.7 million tons [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose on Thursday, supported by the strengthening of all ship - type freight indices [13]. 3.3. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 7, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 77% compared to the previous day [15]. - On August 7, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills decreased, and the opening rate of oil mills increased [15]. - China's July imports of edible vegetable oil and soybeans are reported, with edible vegetable oil imports decreasing by 9.9% year - on - year and soybean imports increasing by 4.6% year - on - year [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on August 7, and the prices of some agricultural products changed [16]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1. International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged or cutting them in September and October is predicted [18]. - US initial jobless claims, non - farm productivity, non - farm unit labor costs, inflation expectations, and wholesale sales data are reported [18]. - The EU will maintain a 15% tariff cap on chip exports to the US [18]. 4.2. Domestic News - On August 7, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward (yuan appreciation) [20]. - On August 7, the Chinese central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 122.5 billion yuan [20]. - On August 8, the Chinese central bank will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [21]. - China's July import and export data show growth, with exports increasing by 8% and imports increasing by 4.8% [21]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flows of major futures varieties on August 7 are presented, with a net inflow of 77.6 billion yuan in the futures market, including 35.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and 42 billion yuan in stock index futures [23][24]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 8 月 7 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 | 合药 | 前结算价 : | 开 蓝价 : | 成高价 | 最低价 : | 收盘价 :涨跌: | | 张跌幅 | 成交量 : | | 持企業 持企量要化 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is rising slightly due to a single - supply source, and the trend depends on Sino - US trade relations and supply - side variables [3]. - The palm oil market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and high near - term production [10]. - The sugar market is likely to see a price decline in the future, considering increased import supply, high import profit, and expected increase in domestic planting area [12]. - The cotton market is bearish in the short - term, as the Sino - US economic and trade agreement is not finalized, downstream consumption is weak, and the basis is strengthening [15]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the spot price in the peak season is underperforming. The near - month contract may see short - selling, while the mid - term strategy is to short after a rebound [19]. - The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured due to policy intervention. There are different trading opportunities in the near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meadow - **Important Information**: US soybean prices fell slightly on Tuesday night. Sino - US trade negotiations did not benefit US soybean exports, and good weather in North America also put pressure on prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose slightly, and the transaction volume increased. Last week, 2.2539 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.213 million tons are expected [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is recommended to go long at low cost intervals and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data shows a decline in June, while production increased in July. The government plans to increase the palm oil replanting project budget from 2026 to 2030 [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is supported by fundamentals but has limited upside. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter, but it should be viewed as oscillating [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly oscillating on Tuesday. Spot prices in different regions were stable. As of the end of July, sugar sales and inventory data in Guangxi and Yunnan showed different trends [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The sugar price is likely to decline in the future due to increased import supply and expected increase in planting area [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly oscillating on Tuesday. The US cotton growth data showed good conditions [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton market is bearish in the short - term due to the unfinalized Sino - US agreement and weak downstream consumption [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: Domestic egg prices mainly declined, with sufficient supply and weak demand [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market has a large supply. Near - month contracts may see short - selling, and mid - term short - selling after a rebound is recommended [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Domestic pig prices were mainly stable, with sufficient supply and weak demand [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The pig market's supply - surplus logic is being restructured. Different trading opportunities exist in near - term and far - term contracts, and more attention should be paid to the spread [22].