1 月 30 号，全球贵金属市场经历了一场史诗级的暴跌。 创下了1980年以来单日最大跌幅。 很多人问，贵金属的价格还有可能回暖么？ 赌徒心态的基本盘 回答这个问题，我们先说说美元为什么一路狂飙。 黄金从2025年初的2600美元左右， 一路冲到1月29日的高点5600美元。 白银更夸张，从30美元附近飙到114美元以上。 这些都让投资者把贵金属当成避险神器。 很多人觉得，美元会继续贬值，黄金白银才是硬通货。 但是涨得越高，风险其实越大。 | en Appeal Tether's Metal Hoard 'Debasement' Trade Gold Versus Bitcoin How to | | --- | 底层逻辑一点也不复杂： 说白了，大家对美元失去了信心。 通胀压力、地缘争议乱局、央行大印钞票... 相对强弱指数RSI，黄金一度冲到90以上。 这在历史上极其罕见， 意味着黄金已经严重超买，随时可能暴雷。 但是大家都心里嘀咕：这行情还能撑多久？ 许多人在赌。 可是市场巨变的时候根本不会给你喘息的机会。 咱们先来复盘一下那个疯狂的周五。 在那天的交易里，黄金一度下跌超过12%。 直接跌破了每盎司500 ...

1月31日凌晨，现货白银价格一度暴跌36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过12%，盘中跌穿每盎司4700美元，创下40年来单日最大 跌幅。 截至1月31日盘中，伦敦金现货黄金报4860美元/盎司，跌幅超9%；COMEX黄金期货报4907.5美元/盎司，跌8.35%。伦敦银白银现货报84美元/盎司，跌幅 超25%；COMEX白银报85美元/盎司，跌幅超25%。 | 贵金属 [2 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | 4880.034 | 85.259 | 4907.5 | | -497.126 -9.25% | -30.607 -26.42% -447.3 -8.35% | | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 85.250 | 1079.28 | 24832 | | -29.179 -25.50% -117.64 -9.83% | | -5087 -17.00% | 黄金、白银为何出现急跌行情？是否已进入阶段性下行区间？未来走势如何？ 多重因素叠加引发价格急跌 "美联储政策预期突变，沃什料将推行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Copper prices soared and then fell back. In the short - term, panic sentiment still has a suppressing effect, but the long - term outlook is not pessimistic. The copper market is expected to gradually stabilize. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai copper contract this week is 99,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,800 US dollars/ton [13] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: After copper prices soared and fell back, the weekly starting rate of copper primary enterprises rebounded slightly, and the spot market transactions first declined and then rose. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed, the scrap copper substitution was still low, and the processing rate of recycled copper rods remained low [11]. - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continued to decline, while the processing fee for blister copper increased month - on - month. Some copper mines faced production problems such as grade decline and strikes [12]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 70,000 tons to 2.33 million tons, LME inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 1.75 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 110,000 tons to 5.22 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The spot copper in East China was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Copper prices soared and then fell back. The main Shanghai copper contract rose 2.31% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper fell 0.44% to 13,070.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Price**: Provided the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products and recycled copper in different regions and time periods, and the price differences between them [24]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures in East China on Friday. The LME inventory increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount, reporting a discount of 89.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded [29]. - **Structure**: Both Shanghai copper and LME copper maintained a Contango structure [32]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough - smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China rebounded, which still made a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [37]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB first appreciated and then depreciated, and the spot Shanghai - LME ratio of copper fluctuated [40]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [43]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 230,000 tons to 9.3 million tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area decreased by 80,000 tons to 990,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai and Jiangsu, and the inventory in Guangdong decreased slightly. The number of copper warrants increased by 10,058 to 156,851 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian and North American warehouses, European inventory decreased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased [46][49][52]. 4. Supply Side - **Production**: In January 2026, China's refined copper production increased by about 10,000 tons month - on - month, higher than expected. It is expected that the production in February will decline month - on - month but maintain a high year - on - year growth. In December 2025, the refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the cumulative production for the whole year was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [56]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January to December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 21.96%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%. The import of anode copper was 61,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6%. The import of refined copper was 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%. The export of refined copper was 96,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons. The import of recycled copper was 239,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.83% and a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.342 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [59][62][65][71][74]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: Globally, the main consumption areas of electrolytic copper are power (46%), home appliances (15%), etc. In China, they are construction (26%), equipment (23%), etc [78]. - **PMI**: China's official manufacturing PMI in January decreased to 49.3, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided [81]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December, the year - on - year output of freezers, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of automobiles, washing machines, air conditioners, color TVs and AC motors decreased. From January to December, the cumulative output of automobiles, air conditioners, household washing machines, household refrigerators and power generation equipment increased, while that of freezers, color TVs and AC motors decreased [84]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales and completion all decreasing year - on - year. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Starting Rate**: The starting rate of some downstream enterprises showed different trends of rise and fall in December, and different expected trends in January. This week, the starting rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased slowly, the starting rate of recycled copper rod production increased slightly but remained at a low level, the starting rate of wire and cable warmed up, and the starting rate of copper strip increased slightly [89][92][95][98][101][104]. - **Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference widened compared with last week, reporting 3,630 yuan/ton on Friday [109]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,408 to 1,315,078 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2602 contract was 87,404 lots (bilateral) [114]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of January 27, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined to 15.7%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds decreased (as of January 23) [117].

近期贵金属市场出现剧烈波动，白银价格在单日之内大幅下跌三分之一，从每盎司120美元最低跌破75 美元；黄金同样遭遇重挫，最大跌幅达13%，所幸收盘前出现反弹，最终收于4800点上方。此次暴跌引 发市场广泛关注，投资者普遍关心后续走势及被套仓位能否在下周迎来修复。 尽管当前市场情绪偏向悲观，但技术面存在修复需求。剧烈下跌后通常伴随技术性回调，即使受消息面 影响黄金难以立即创出新高，仍有望出现反弹窗口，为投资者提供优化持仓结构的时机。此外，地缘政 治风险尚未消退，特朗普政府对伊朗的强硬态度可能再度推升避险需求，或为黄金价格带来阶段性支 撑。综上所述，投资者宜保持耐心，密切关注政策动向与地缘局势演变，审慎应对市场波动。 引发本轮金银大幅下跌的核心因素在于美联储人事变动。特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主 席，而沃什被视为典型的鹰派代表人物，其政策立场倾向于支持美元走强并反对降息。由于贵金属价格 与美元指数长期呈现负相关关系，鹰派人物执掌美联储将强化美元上行预期，从而对黄金白银形成显著 压制。 ...

昨夜今晨，黄金、白银价格继续大幅下跌。纽约黄金期价一度跌破4800美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过 10%；白银期价一度跌破80美元/盎司关口，跌幅超过30%。截至收盘，纽约黄金下跌8.35%，报4907.5 美元/盎司；现货黄金重挫9%，报4891.43美元/盎司；纽约白银下跌25.5%，报85.25美元/盎司。国内夜 盘方面，沪金收跌9.83%，沪银收跌17%。 | 脂自选 总览 | 国内 | 星际 | 今日解读 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 能源化工 | 贵金属 | 有色金属 | | | 名称 | ◀ 最新: | 涨幅%; | 涨跌 # | | 微型COMEX黄金主连 MGCW0 | 4914.9 | -8.22% | -439.9 | | 微型COMEX白银主连 SILWO | 85.16 | -25.58% | -29.27 | | COMEX黄金主连 GCW0 | 4907.5 | -8.35% | -447.3 | | COMEX白银主连 SIWO | 85.250 | -25.50% | -29.179 | | 铂金主连 PLWO | 2178.2 | -16.81 ...

特朗普提名提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，美元指数走强；周五（1月30日）纽约尾盘，现货 白银暴跌 26.36%，报85.1840美元/盎司，北京时间02:38曾跌至73.9603美元，1月份累计上涨18.90%。COMEX白 银 期货暴跌27.18%，报83.300美元/盎司，1月份累涨18.90%。COMEX铜期货跌4.13%，报5.9470美元/ 磅，1月份累涨4.14%。现货铂金重挫17.59%，报2178.48美元/盎司，1月份累涨1.65%；现货钯金重挫 14.89%，报1708.79美元/盎司，1月份累涨4.66%。 ...

特朗普提名提名凯文·沃什出任美联储主席，美元指数走强；周五（1月30日）纽约尾盘，现货 黄金重挫 9%，报4891.43美元/盎司，北京时间02:39逼近4690美元，1月份累涨12.95%。COMEX黄金 期货下跌 8.88%，报4846.20美元/盎司，1月份累涨11.93%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are reaching historical highs, approaching $5,100 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target for the end of 2026 to $5,400. Investors are drawn to gold's safe-haven attributes while also expressing concerns about when this bull market might end. The fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by macro policies, market liquidity, and risk sentiment, with significant declines typically resulting from a combination of multiple negative factors [1][8]. Group 1: Conditions for a Significant Decline in Gold Prices - A single negative factor is unlikely to disrupt the gold bull market; a significant decline may only occur if one of three major conditions is met, accompanied by a shift in market liquidity [3]. - The first condition is a rapid increase in real interest rates, which would significantly raise the holding costs of gold. If the Federal Reserve abandons rate cut expectations and resumes aggressive rate hikes, global interest rates would rise, making gold less attractive compared to fixed-income assets [4]. - The second condition involves the U.S. dollar entering a strong cycle, which would suppress gold prices. A strong dollar increases the cost of purchasing gold for holders of non-dollar currencies, thereby reducing demand [5]. - The third condition is a decline in risk sentiment, where easing geopolitical risks or economic uncertainties would lead to reduced demand for gold as a safe haven, causing funds to flow into riskier assets [6]. Group 2: Auxiliary Signals for Early Warning of Gold Price Declines - Four auxiliary signals can provide early warnings for potential declines in gold prices, which are accessible for ordinary investors to track [7]. - The first signal is sustained outflows from gold ETFs. A continuous net outflow for four weeks, especially if exceeding 10 tons in a single week, indicates institutional withdrawal from gold [7]. - The second signal is a significant reduction in central bank gold purchases. If emerging market central banks stop accumulating gold or if Western central banks begin selling their gold reserves, it could disrupt the supply-demand balance [7]. - The third signal is a technical breakdown that triggers stop-loss selling. If gold prices fall below critical support levels, it could initiate a negative feedback loop of selling [7]. - The fourth signal is an increase in the attractiveness of alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies or a structural bull market in equities, which could divert investment funds away from gold [7]. Group 3: Current Market Environment and Future Outlook - Currently, the core conditions for a significant decline in gold prices are not met, suggesting that gold is more likely to maintain high levels rather than experience a trend decline. Goldman Sachs predicts a 13% upside for gold prices by 2026, with the supporting logic remaining intact [8]. - Supporting factors include expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026, stable gold purchasing demand from emerging market central banks, and ongoing global policy uncertainties that support gold prices [8].

本文源自：金融界AI电报 美元指数DXY短线走高10点，现报96.83。美元兑日元USD/JPY日内涨幅扩大至1.00%，现报154.60。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts in January 2026 is a neutral - slightly dovish move, continuing the liquidity - stabilizing framework. The meeting indicates an improved economic situation, and while rate hikes are off the table, future rate cuts may be considered if uncertainties decline. The weakening dollar situation remains unresolved, and the market should focus on the continuity of the weak dollar, geopolitical situations, and domestic economic policy directions [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Pre - meeting Concerns - The market widely expected the Fed to pause rate cuts in the January meeting. Data showed labor market cooling, lower - than - expected inflation, and economic resilience, all of which supported this view [2]. - Market expectations for Japan's expansionary fiscal policy, along with geopolitical and policy factors, led to a weaker dollar. Key meeting focuses include Powell's stance and signals about the next rate cut. The Fed's independence and the chairmanship nomination are also important issues [4]. Meeting Content - Compared with the December statement, the January statement showed a more optimistic view on the economy and employment, with a minor change in the inflation description. There were also differences in voting among Fed members, with some expressing more dovish stances [5]. - Powell emphasized in the press conference that inflation and employment risks have subsided to some extent, ruling out rate hikes and stating conditions for future rate cuts. He also mentioned his own tenure, Fed independence, and did not comment on the weak dollar [7]. Market Outlook - After the meeting, U.S. stocks and bonds changed little, the dollar rebounded slightly, and precious metals remained strong. Future macro - trends should be observed from three aspects: the continuity of the weak dollar and Fed chairmanship issues, the development of the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation, and the direction of domestic economic policies [10]. - The overall pattern of a strong RMB remains unchanged, and the macro - liquidity environment for financial assets is positive. The existing market structure may continue but could be affected by geopolitical and economic policy factors [11].