Core Viewpoint - In late August, the RMB experienced a rapid appreciation against the backdrop of a weak US dollar index, strong central bank midpoint pricing, and attractive domestic equity market performance, leading to a new low for the USD/CNY exchange rate this year [1] Group 1 - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain strong in the short term, gradually returning to a "three-price unification" [1] - If the RMB can maintain a strong trend as the year-end approaches, the demand for settlement is likely to continue supporting the RMB exchange rate [1] - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflow into the equity market but facing outflow pressure in the bond market [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough of the 7 level for the RMB exchange rate will require additional catalysts [1]

Report Information - Authors: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The non - ferrous sector is expected to gradually recover, with warming expectations of interest rate cuts and positive demand expectations. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period is approaching, and there may be short - term recoveries in non - ferrous metals, but the upward movement requires positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals. However, the contradiction between strong reality and weak expectations will cause fluctuations and adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is trending towards recovery. Interest rate cut expectations are warming up. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting interest rate cut expectations. Non - ferrous metals continued to fluctuate and recover this week. Attention should be paid to the resonance signals between macro and micro factors. The upward space needs positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper have turned to a situation of both supply and demand booming, with demand rising faster. The price center is expected to shift upwards, with short - term support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and pressure at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The supply in China is increasing while demand is weak. Zinc prices are fluctuating and rebounding, with short - term support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23200. It is recommended to be slightly bullish in the short - term [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and falling in the high - level range. It is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and pressure at 21000 - 21200. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and consolidating [5][13]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are in a weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: The supply is shrinking, and demand is in the peak - season expectation. Lead prices are fluctuating and rebounding. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless steel is following nickel's upward trend. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both. Nickel has support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 123000 - 125000; stainless steel has support at 12700 - 12800 and pressure at 13000 - 13200 [9][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 79780 with a 0.47% increase; zinc closed at 22175 with a 0.16% increase; aluminum closed at 20645 with a 0.46% decrease; alumina closed at 3008 with a 0.92% decrease; tin closed at 273240 with a 1.94% decrease; lead closed at 16855 with a 0.15% decrease; nickel closed at 123450 with a 1.44% increase; stainless steel closed at 12950 with a 1.05% increase; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20275 with a 0.37% decrease [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Analyzes the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, and net short - position changes of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, etc., and the influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Presents the spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][24][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Contains various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio, and the price differences between different varieties [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Includes various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][69][71]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the RMB has experienced a rapid appreciation due to a combination of external factors, including a weaker US dollar index, strong central bank guidance on exchange rate expectations, and attractive performance in the domestic equity market, which has drawn foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1 - The USD/CNY exchange rate has reached a new low for the year, reflecting the recent appreciation of the RMB [1] - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong and fluctuating trend in the short term, gradually returning to a state of "three prices in one" [1] - As the year-end approaches, if the RMB can sustain its strong fluctuations, it is anticipated that the demand for currency settlement will continue to support the RMB exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The current domestic fundamentals are primarily providing a floor for the exchange rate, with foreign capital inflows into the equity market contrasted by outflows in the bond market [1] - More catalysts are needed for the RMB to break the 7 level against the US dollar [1]

衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.07%，在汇市尾市收于97.707。 新华财经纽约9月1日电美元指数1日下跌。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1708美元，高于前一交易日的1.1699美元；1英镑兑换1.3544美元，高 于前一交易日的1.3510美元。 1美元兑换147.22日元，高于前一交易日的147.02日元；1美元兑换0.8010瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8001瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3752加元，高于前一交易日的1.3728加元；1美元兑换9.3916瑞典克朗，低 于前一交易日的9.4643瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Period: September 1 - 5, 2025 [1] - Report Subjects: Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a sideways phase, possibly at the beginning [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward due to the Fed's dovish signals, a weaker US dollar, geopolitical risks, and a weakening labor market [7] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, Fed officials' speeches, geopolitical situations, and global central bank policies [7] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate, and grid trading was recommended in the 760 - 800 range [11] - This Week's Strategy: The gold main contract 2510 is expected to fluctuate, with resistance at 794 - 803 and support at 766 - 775 [12] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [19][28] - Data Presented: Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price spreads [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is steadily rising and is currently at the end of the trend [32] - Trend Logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "fluctuating and stabilizing, rebounding at the end of the month" due to the Fed's expected rate cut, a weaker US dollar, lower US bond yields, and industrial demand expectations [32] - Key Factors: Next week, focus on US non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and Fed officials' speeches. Whether the rate - cut expectation can be further strengthened will dominate short - term trends [32] - Strategy Suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [33] Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 was expected to fluctuate at a high level, with support at 8500 - 8800 and resistance at 9200 - 9500 [36] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2510 is expected to be strong, with support at 8900 - 9000 and resistance at 9400 - 9500 [37] Related Data - Data Sources: Wind, Mysteel, Great Wall Futures Trading Consulting Department [42][45] - Data Presented: Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price spreads [44][47][49]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has rebounded for the second consecutive week, approaching previous horizontal resistance levels, with a potential target of $3533 in the near term, despite some pullback risks [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3371.93 per ounce at the beginning of the week, recorded a low of $3351.20 on Tuesday, and subsequently rebounded to reach a high of $3453.75, closing at $3449.09, marking a weekly increase of $77.16 or 2.29% [3][9]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $102.55, indicating strong volatility in the market [3]. Market Influences - The rebound in gold prices was supported by buying interest at the mid-band and 60-day moving averages, alongside increasing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Federal Reserve Governor Waller's support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, along with favorable consumer confidence and inflation expectations, contributed to the bullish sentiment in the gold market [3][5]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with the potential for further price increases due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the likelihood of a rate cut cycle from the Federal Reserve [5][7]. - The market is currently positioned above several moving averages, indicating a favorable environment for potential bullish entries upon any pullbacks [5][9]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is anticipated to face resistance around $3455 to $3470, while support levels are identified at $3425 and $3400 [10]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, suggesting a higher probability of price increases in the near future [5][7].

值得一提的是，美联储官员们还在密集释放鸽派信号，持续推升降息预期。当地时间8月28日，作为下任美联储主席热门 人选之一的美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在演讲中表态，支持9月份降息25个基点，并预计未来三个月到六个月还会进一步降 息。美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利日前也暗示，美联储决策者将很快宣布降息。 从内部因素来看，今年以来，我国经济平稳运行。在创新引领下，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展扎实推进，国民经济保持 稳中有进的发展态势。这对人民币汇率起到重要支撑作用。 ■刘琪 8月份以来，人民币对美元汇率在波动中走升，尤其是8月下旬以来，上涨势头尤为强劲。 Wind数据显示，8月份，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率涨幅分别为0.83%、1.21%。其中，8月29日盘中，在岸、离岸人民 币对美元汇率最高分别升至7.1260、7.1155，均创2024年11月7日以来新高。不仅如此，8月29日，人民币对美元汇率中间价上 调33个基点至7.1030，是去年11月7日以来的峰值。 笔者认为，近期人民币对美元汇率升值，缘于内外部因素的共同推动。 从外部因素来看，当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示："由于政策 ...

回顾本周的行情，由于投资者权衡美国经济数据与美联储未来走向的不确定性，金价大幅走高逼近历史纪 录。最新数据显示美国通胀依然顽固，由此交易员加大了对美联储9月降息的押注，预期降息25个基点的 概率已升至89%，高于数据公布前的85%。降息通常利好无息资产如黄金。同时，美元指数本月下跌约 2%，也为金价提供支撑。 黄金上涨深度解析！ 1、由于美联储独立性的不确定性继续困扰市场。在周五的一次紧急听证会上，联邦法官表示将考虑是否 发布命令阻止特朗普的解雇决定。黄金正在从这种关于美联储独立性的担忧中受益，仅过去两天，黄金 ETF就流入近15吨。为黄金再添一层避险买盘。 2、投资者信心与前景，作为政治与经济动荡中的首选避险资产，黄金今年迄今已上涨逾30%，并在4月创 下3,500美元/盎司的历史新高。当前避险情绪、美元走弱及央行购金预期，均使市场看涨情绪保持高位。 | 日期 | 品和 | 万向 | 开仓时间 | 开仓点位 | 平仓点位 | 盛与点 | 是否持仓过夜 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8月4日 | 黄金 | ਨੂੰ | 21:49 | ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has reached a historical high, with New York gold futures peaking at $3518.5 per ounce and domestic gold bars priced at 820 yuan per gram [2][3] - This surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical uncertainties, and a weakening dollar [4] - Central banks globally, including those in China and Turkey, are increasing their gold reserves, which supports the gold market and signals positive sentiment to investors [4] Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that gold prices have experienced significant increases over the past decades, suggesting potential for further growth, although market conditions are variable [5] - Some institutions have optimistic forecasts for gold prices, with UBS raising its target to $3700 per ounce by mid-2026 and Bank of America predicting a rise to $4000 per ounce [5] - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices, diversify their asset allocation, and consider strategies like dollar-cost averaging to manage investment risks [6][4]

以军行动双线升级 胡塞武装、哈马斯高层遭"精准打击" 据央视新闻消息，以色列不顾国际社会反对声音，在其多条战线上推进行动，中东地区战事升级。 早上好，中东地区战事升级！ 1.也门方向 胡塞武装8月30日发表声明称，该武装行政机构负责人艾哈迈德·拉哈维在28日以色列对也门首都萨那的空袭中丧生。 胡塞武装控制的马西拉电视台当日播出的声明称，拉哈维和该组织一些成员28日开会时遭到以色列军队袭击身亡，还有一些成员受 伤。 以色列方面同日承认了这次袭击行动。以色列国防军当日晚间发表声明称，在以色列情报部门的指导下，以军于28日袭击了位于也 门萨那地区的胡塞武装高级官员聚集地，在场的高级官员包括该武装行政机构负责人艾哈迈德·拉哈维和多位胡塞武装高级领导人。 以色列国防部长卡茨30日表示，两天前以色列国防军对胡塞武装高级官员进行了"前所未有的沉重打击"。卡茨还表示，以色列袭击 也门导致胡塞武装行政机构负责人和其他几名高级领导人死亡"仅仅是个开始"。 这一空袭引发胡塞武装强烈反应。胡塞武装"最高政治委员会"主席迈赫迪·马沙特30日晚间发表讲话，誓言报复，"以色列人必须等待 属于他们的黑暗日子"。此外，迈赫迪·马沙特称，胡塞武 ...