Group 1 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased slightly but remained below economists' expectations, indicating that layoffs are still relatively low and the labor market shows strong resilience despite pessimistic views on AI's impact [1][3] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly decreased by 31,000 to 1.833 million, marking one of the lowest levels in nearly 10 months [1] - The initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by only about 4,000 to 212,000, which is lower than the median expectation of 216,000 from economists [1][3] Group 2 - Despite a slowdown in hiring and low layoffs, the data reflects the stability of the U.S. labor market, reinforcing the narrative of a "soft landing" for the economy [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report on March 6 will provide clearer insights for policymakers regarding the employment market's response to the AI wave and whether the recent positive trends are temporary or indicative of a sustained shift [5] - The four-week moving average for initial jobless claims remained stable at 220,250, suggesting no significant volatility in the labor market [5] Group 3 - Inflation is cooling, with January CPI down to 2.4% and core CPI at 2.5%, yet the Federal Reserve remains cautious about immediate rate cuts [6] - The recent data suggests that the labor market does not require urgent intervention from the Federal Reserve, which has adjusted its rate cut expectations to a more gradual approach [6][7] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with a near 70% probability of a cut in June, indicating a potential for two rate cuts within the year [6]

风险提示及免责条款 美联储理事米兰：认为我们今年需要降息大约一个百分点。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed a divergent trend today. The macroeconomic situation shows that the US inflation and GDP data have weakened, but Fed officials have released cautious signals, weakening the market's bets on interest rate cuts this year. Tariffs and the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran have intensified again, leading to high market risk aversion. From a fundamental perspective, supply is constrained by various factors, and demand presents different characteristics for platinum and palladium. The report suggests temporary observation and provides price range expectations for London and Guangzhou Futures Exchange contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) increased by 11.55 to 589.50, and palladium's main contract closing price decreased by 10.35 to 446.55. The main contract positions of platinum decreased by 277 to 10387, and those of palladium increased by 90 to 3179 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium increased by 7.58 to 591.60, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) increased by 5 to 436.00. The basis of the platinum main contract decreased by 3.97 to 2.10, and the basis of the palladium main contract increased by 15.35 to -10.55 [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) decreased by 243 to 9966, and those of palladium decreased by 342 to 3003. The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to decrease by 0.80 to 220.40 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 5 to 293.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to increase by 25.60 to 261.60 tons, and that of palladium is expected to decrease by 27 to 287.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index decreased by 0.24 to 97.66, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.01 to 1.77%, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 1.62 to 17.93 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump announced in his State of the Union address that he would impose tariffs through other legal means and replace personal income tax with tariff revenue. He also expressed a preference for diplomatic solutions to the Iranian nuclear issue. Fed Governor Cook said that AI may lead to an increase in unemployment, and the Fed may face a dilemma in monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said it is not suitable to cut interest rates further until there is more evidence of continuous decline in inflation. Japanese Prime Minister Takamichi Sanae expressed concerns about the Bank of Japan's further interest rate hikes [2]. 3.6 View Summary - In terms of investment, platinum ETFs had a net inflow in 2025 but had a correction in February, leading to some profit - taking, while physical investment demand remained strong. Palladium investment demand was continuously weak, with limited marginal impact on prices. The report suggests temporary observation. The resistance and support levels for London platinum are 2200 and 2000 US dollars respectively, and for London palladium are 1800 and 1600 US dollars respectively. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 contract may operate in the range of 460 - 650 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract may operate in the range of 400 - 500 yuan/gram [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On February 26 at 21:30, the US unemployment claims data for the week ending February 21; on February 27 at 21:30, the US January PPI monthly and annual rates [2].

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货周四（2月26日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计105072千克，今日仓 单较上一日持平。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) 目前美联储新任主席候选人沃什虽以"鹰派"著称，但他之前讲话曾释放"鸽派"信号，表示其上任后不会 立刻开始收紧流动性，这对贵金属价格支撑形成利多。"从降息层面来看，美联储在任主席鲍威尔目前 态度依然强硬，市场预期其任内难以进一步降息。因此，2026年度美联储降息预计需等待沃什上台后的 第一次议息会议，市场预期其年内降息至少2次。 沪金主力盘内震荡偏强，周四（2月26日）黄金期货开盘价1148.68元/克，截至目前最高1154.46元/克， 最低1144.08元/克。截止发稿报1146.48元/克，涨幅0.00%，成交量为169407手，持仓为151642手，日持 仓减少3433手。 | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 105072 | 0 | ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 346,369 kilograms, with a decrease of 9,461 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures contract opened at 22,975 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 23,394 yuan, a low of 22,324 yuan, and closed at 22,572 yuan, reflecting an increase of 0.47% [1] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the total warehouse inventory decreased by 8,549 kilograms, with specific reductions from 中工美供应链 (7,801 kilograms) and 中储吴淞 (748 kilograms) [2] - The market is awaiting details on the latest U.S. import tariffs, with expectations of an increase from 10% to 15% or higher for certain countries [2] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the US dollar, reaching new highs since May 2023, driven by multiple factors including improved export structures and increased competitiveness in manufacturing [1][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - On February 26, the onshore and offshore yuan broke through the 6.85 and 6.84 thresholds against the dollar, respectively, with the onshore rate at 6.8414, up 258 basis points from the previous close [1]. - Since the beginning of 2023, the onshore and offshore yuan have appreciated by 2.11% and 1.98%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - The appreciation of the yuan is attributed to a combination of factors, including an upgrade in export structure, enhanced manufacturing competitiveness, and a high current account surplus, leading to a relatively abundant foreign exchange supply [4]. - Improvements in cross-border capital flows and increased attractiveness of the bond market have also contributed to a rise in foreign institutions' willingness to hold yuan-denominated assets [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Future yuan exchange rate trends will be influenced by the direction of the US dollar, domestic fundamentals, and asset value reassessment [5]. - Analysts suggest that while the yuan is likely to continue showing two-way fluctuations and moderate appreciation, caution is advised regarding any strong upward trends [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures due to U.S. tariffs, with expectations of a bullish trend in the gold market for the year [3][4] - The U.S. Trade Representative has announced the continuation of a 15% tariff, contributing to the support for gold prices [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased to 1,097.62 tons, marking a new high since February 2021, indicating strong institutional confidence in gold's long-term value [3] Group 2 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates until at least June, with a potential for only about 53 basis points of rate cuts this year, suggesting a prolonged bullish cycle for gold [3] - Despite a potential short-term consolidation in the spring, any declines are expected to be quickly offset by ongoing uncertainties, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations that prices could exceed $6,000 in the coming year due to continued geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the main influencing factor for the market is the risk - aversion sentiment from Trump's new tariff policy and the tense geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The increasing divergence within the Fed has reduced the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in June, which may limit the short - term upward speed of gold prices. For silver, the tight spot supply, low inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, continuous decline in New York inventory, and concerns about a potential squeeze in March support the further rebound of silver prices. [6] - In the future, gold is expected to enter a range - bound trend after the post - holiday price increase until there are new changes in tariff or geopolitical situations. Silver may remain relatively strong, but short - term price fluctuations should be watched out for. In the long - term, the underlying logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of a Fed rate cut this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips. [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - **Precious Metal Prices**: On February 25, 2026, London gold spot was at $5193.14 per ounce, London silver spot was at $90.58 per ounce, COMEX gold was at $5212.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $90.46 per ounce. The prices of AU2604, AG2604, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) were 1151.06 yuan/gram, 23029 yuan/kilogram, 1147.40 yuan/gram, and 22105 yuan/kilogram respectively. Compared with February 24, the price of gold increased by about 0.4%, and the price of silver increased by about 3.1%. [5] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of gold and silver in different markets showed various changes. For example, the gold ID - SHFE active price spread was - 3.66 yuan/gram on February 25, with a - 9.0% change compared to the previous day. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 49.98, with a - 3.0% change. [5] 2. Position Data - **ETF Positions**: As of February 24, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1094.19 tons, with a 0.71% increase compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16107.91959 tons, with a 1.75% increase. [5] - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: For COMEX gold, the non - commercial long positions were 213432 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions were 53517 contracts. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions were 36626 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions were 12623 contracts. There were corresponding changes in these positions compared to the previous day. [5] 3. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On February 25, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105072.00 kilograms, with no change compared to the previous day, and the SHFE silver inventory was 355830.00 kilograms, with a 1.70% increase. [5] - **COMEX Inventory**: On February 24, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 33701164 troy ounces, with a - 0.22% change compared to the previous day, and the COMEX silver inventory was 364000164 troy ounces, with no change. [5] 4. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates**: On February 25, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.93, with a - 0.13% change compared to the previous day. [5] - **Interest Rates and Stock Market Indexes**: On February 24, 2026, the US dollar index was 97.89, with a 0.15% increase; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.43%, with no change; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.04%, with a 0.25% increase; the VIX was 19.55, with a - 6.95% decrease; the S&P 500 was 6890.07, with a 0.77% increase; and NYMEX crude oil was $66.08, with a - 0.32% decrease. [5] 5. Market Review - On February 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.04% to 1151.06 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 4.57% to 23029 yuan/kilogram. [5]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China has announced an adjustment to the margin ratio for personal precious metal trading contracts due to increased market risks, raising the margin requirement from 80% to 100% starting February 26, 2026, to protect investors' interests [2][4][16]. Group 1: Margin Ratio Adjustments - Agricultural Bank of China will adjust the margin ratio for Au (T+D), mAu (T+D), and Ag (T+D) contracts from 80% to 100% effective February 26, 2026 [2][4][16]. - Other major banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China, are also making similar adjustments to their margin ratios for personal clients [6][19]. - The increase in margin ratio to 100% corresponds to a reduction in leverage to 1, indicating a higher capital requirement for traders [7][20]. Group 2: Market Analysis - On February 25, gold prices rebounded, with London spot gold exceeding $5,190 per ounce; however, industry experts caution that this is merely a rebound and not a reversal of the trend [8][21]. - Analysts from Dongfang Jincheng predict that geopolitical risks, U.S. monetary policy, and ongoing global economic uncertainties will continue to support gold prices, potentially reaching $6,000 per ounce by 2026 [9][22]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to be a significant factor in driving gold prices higher, with a projected reduction of 75 basis points in 2025 [10][23].

本文字数：2505，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 美国总统特朗普在周二晚间发表了创纪录时长的国情咨文演说，在 "可负担性"成为当前政治热词的背 景下，他公布了多项旨在降低物价的提案。 2026.02.26 民调中，受访者认为最能改善个人财务状况的措施依次为：降低物价（38%）、提高工资（19%）和减 税（12%）。哈维表示，自2017年特朗普首次上任以来，民众收入有所增长，但增速不及物价，这就是 人们感到压力的原因。 然而，民调机构YouGov本周开展的独家调查显示，约八成的受访者认为情况没有得到改善。消费者将 食品杂货价格、保险、处方药价格、房租以及购房储蓄列为最主要的生活负担挑战。对于美联储而言， 物价问题也是限制其进一步下调利率的重要因素。 民众感受物价压力 特朗普在国情咨文演讲中称，鸡蛋、鸡肉、黄油、水果、酒店、汽车和汽油等部分商品 的"价格正在暴 跌"。 不过，他的言论并未掩盖这样的事实：过去12个月，美国物价整体仍在持续上涨。美国劳工统计局数据 显示，1月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%。纽约联储本月公布的调查发现，在2025年大部分时 间里，美国公司和消费者承担了特朗普关 ...