Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with pure bond funds showing negative average returns since July, leading to increased large redemptions [1] - Over 400 bond funds have reported losses this year, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds, with more than half of bond funds showing negative performance since July [1] - The yield on major interbank bonds has generally decreased, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 2 basis points to 1.9275% and the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.81% [1] Group 2 - The National Development Bank bond ETF (159651) is showing a mixed market, with a recent price of 106.18 yuan and a cumulative increase of 1.65% over the past year [2] - The trading volume for the National Development Bank bond ETF has been active, with a turnover rate of 4.63% and a total transaction value of 35.09 million yuan on the latest trading day [2] - The National Development Bank bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 4.50% over the past two years, with a historical monthly profit probability of 88.12% [2] Group 3 - The management fee for the National Development Bank bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it one of the lowest in comparable funds [3] - The tracking error for the National Development Bank bond ETF over the past two months is 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3] - The ETF closely tracks the China Bond - 0-3 Year National Development Bank Bond Index, which includes policy bank bonds with a maturity of up to three years [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant "see-saw effect" between the stock and bond markets, with the A-share market recovering while the bond market faces continuous adjustments, leading to substantial redemptions in bond funds [1][2][3] - As of July 25, pure bond funds have shown an average loss of -0.11% since July began, with less than 35% of products achieving positive returns, indicating a challenging environment for bond fund performance [2][3] - A total of 36 bond funds have raised their net asset value precision due to large redemptions since July, with the redemption intensity on July 24 being notably stronger than in February of this year, suggesting a trend of increasing investor caution [2][3] Group 2 - The recent pressure on the bond market is attributed to rising risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets, which has led to increased bond yields and affected the net values of some fixed-income funds [3][4] - Despite concerns about a potential ongoing redemption wave in bond funds, analysts believe that the current situation is primarily driven by precautionary measures from asset management institutions, and there is no significant outflow of retail funds from bond investments [4][5] - The outlook for the bond market remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations that it will find a new equilibrium amid adjustments, while emphasizing the importance of liquidity management and defensive strategies in the short term [5]

国债期货周报 | 2025-07-27 财政预期升温与股债分流共振，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6% 降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存 整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存 款利率" 联动调控路径；7月LPR报价持稳，1年期LPR报3%，上次为3%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上次为3.5%；关 税方面，中美将于7月27日至 30日在瑞典举行经贸会谈。2025年上半年，全国财政运行总体平稳，支出扩张力度 加大、收支结构持续优化。一般公共预算收入达11.56万亿元，同比微降0.3%，其中税收收入占比超八成，尽管总 体下降1.2%，但增值税、消费税、个税等主要税种保持增长，显示税源恢复态势逐步确立。支出方面，一般公共 预算支出14.13万亿元，同比增长3.4%，聚焦社会保障、教育、科技、卫生等民生和发展重点领域。政府性基金预 算支出同比大增30%，其中中央特别国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 25, 2025, including whether they will be strong or weak, and gives corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Strong - biased and Volatile**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509, AO2509, RB2510, HC2510, PS2509, LC2509, JM2509, FG509, TA509, V2509, MA509, RU2509 [2][3][4][6][7] - **Weak - biased and Volatile**: T2509, TL2509, AU2510, AG2510, CU2509, I2509, SC2509, P2509 [2][3][4][6][7] - **Strong - biased and Widely Volatile**: SI2509, SA509 [3][6] 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - **Sino - EU Relations**: President Xi Jinping put forward three proposals for the future development of China - EU relations. Premier Li Qiang hopes the EU can provide a fair business environment for Chinese enterprises [8]. - **AI Conference**: Premier Li Qiang will attend the opening ceremony of the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and deliver a speech [8]. - **Mineral Export**: The Ministry of Commerce will take measures to combat strategic mineral smuggling [8]. - **Rural Finance**: The central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will increase financial support for rural revitalization [8]. - **Investment**: 735 billion yuan of central budget - internal investment in 2025 has been basically allocated [9]. - **Price Law**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are soliciting opinions on the draft amendment of the Price Law [9]. - **State - owned Assets**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasizes optimizing the allocation of state - owned assets [9]. - **MLF Operation**: The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [9]. - **Medical Insurance**: During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the national basic medical insurance participation rate remained stable at about 95% [10]. - **US Politics and Economy**: Trump hopes the Fed to cut interest rates. An investment company sues the Fed for non - transparent meetings. The EU may impose counter - tariffs on US products. US PMI data shows a mixed trend [10][11][12] 3. Commodity Futures Information - **Risk Warning**: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warns about uncertainties in the glass and soda ash markets [12]. - **Gold Market**: In the first half of the year, China's gold production increased by 0.44% year - on - year, while consumption decreased by 3.54%. Gold ETFs increased their positions [12]. - **International Futures**: On July 24, international precious metals futures generally fell, international oil prices rose slightly, and London base metals closed down [13] 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 24, major stock index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 25, they will be strong - biased and volatile [14][15][16][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 24, treasury bond futures closed down. It is expected that on July 25, T2509 and TL2509 will be weak - biased and volatile [36][38] - **Precious Metal Futures**: On July 24, gold and silver futures closed down. It is expected that on July 25, they will be weak - biased and volatile [41][50] - **Base Metal Futures**: On July 24, copper and alumina futures had different trends. It is expected that on July 25, copper will be weak - biased and alumina will be strong - biased [52][58] - **Industrial Metal Futures**: On July 24, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate futures showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 25, they will be strong - biased [61][64][67] - **Building Material Futures**: On July 24, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures had different trends. It is expected that on July 25, rebar and hot - rolled coil will be strong - biased, and iron ore will be weak - biased [69][75][77] - **Energy Futures**: On July 24, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and crude oil futures had different trends. It is expected that on July 25, coking coal and glass will be strong - biased, soda ash will be strong - biased and widely volatile, and crude oil will be weak - biased [84][87][89][90] - **Chemical Futures**: On July 24, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 25, they will be strong - biased [95][97][100] - **Agricultural Futures**: On July 24, palm oil and natural rubber futures showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 25, palm oil will be weak - biased and natural rubber will be strong - biased [101][103]

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a significant adjustment since July, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.64% to over 1.7%, and the 30-year bond yield fluctuating above 1.9% [1] - Economic resilience in China is a key factor supporting the bond market adjustment, with indicators showing strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, and a gradual recovery in loans [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have also influenced the bond market, with rising prices in commodities like polysilicon and coking coal, driven by government initiatives to stabilize growth [2] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for the bond market is bearish, with expectations of continued pressure due to economic resilience and rising risk appetite [3][4] - Long-term support factors for the bond market include strong monetary policy support and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may lead to a slight decrease in government bond yields [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address supply-demand imbalances, suggesting that monetary policy will remain accommodative to support economic adjustments, providing some support for the bond market [4]

资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 周四夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，玻璃涨超 6%，焦煤涨超 5%， 纯碱涨超 4%，氧化铝、20 号胶、乙二醇涨超 2%。跌幅方面，铁矿石跌超 1%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.77%报 3371.3 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.55%报 39.285 美元/盎司。 3. 国际油价小幅走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.39%，报 66.16 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 0.96%，报 68.48 美元/桶。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.77%报 9854.50 美元/吨，LME 期 锌跌 0.75%报 2840.50 美元/吨，LME 期镍跌 0.66%报 15470.00 美元/吨。 5. 国际农产品期货多数上涨，美大豆涨 0.15%，美玉米涨 0.82%，美豆油涨 0.93%，美豆粕跌 0.80%，美小麦涨 0.23%。 投资有风险， ...

1 、 国家主席习近平会见欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，并就中欧关系未来发展提出三点主张。 一是坚持相互尊重，巩固伙伴 关系定位。二是坚持开放合作，妥善处理分歧摩擦。三是践行多边主义，维护国际规则秩序。另外，国务院总理李强表示，希望欧方为中国企业赴 欧投资提供公平、公正、非歧视的营商环境。 1 、外交部发言人宣布， 国务院总理李强将于 7 月 26 日出席在上海举行的 2025 世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议开幕式并致辞。 2 、 商务部表示，打击战略矿产走私出口面临的形势依然复杂严峻， 下阶段将采取建立两用物项出口管制联合执法协调中心， 将违法境外实体列 入出口管制管控名单，制定发布战略矿产合规出口工作指引等举措。 2 、央行、农业农村部印发《关于加强金融服务农村改革 推进乡村全面振兴的意见》，提出要加大乡村振兴重点领域的金融资源投入， 包括加大对 粮食主产区、产粮大县信贷资源倾斜，支持拓宽农民增收渠道等。 3 、 国家发改委表示， 2025 年 7350 亿元中央预算内投资已基本下达完毕， 重点支持现代化产业体系、现代化基础设施体系、新型城镇化和乡村全 面振兴等领域项目建设。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides specific investment advice for different futures varieties: - **Buy Recommendations**: Steel (RB2510), Gold (AU2510), Silver (AG2510), Ethanol (EG2509), Methanol (MA2509, M2509), Palm Oil (P2509/Y2509/O1509) [2] - **Sell Recommendations**: EC2510 (Container Shipping Index - European Line), Stainless Steel (SS2509 short - term strategy), PX2509 (short - at upper - range), PTA2509 (short - at upper - range), SR2509 (Sugar - rebound short), CF2509 (Cotton - mid - term short), JD2509 (Eggs - long - term short), CJ2601 (Jujube - long - term short) [2] - **Hold Recommendations**: IH2509 (put option short - position), IM2509 (long - position with reduced exposure), TF2509, TS2509, TI2509 (Treasury bonds - curve strategy), RB2510 (Steel), JM2509 (Coking Coal), J2509 (Coke), CU2509 (Copper), AL2509 (Aluminum), ZN2509 (Zinc), SM2508 (Antimony), NISE09 (Nickel), PR2509 (Bottle Chips), UR2509 (Urea - range operation), EG2509 (Ethanol - put option seller), RM509 (Rapeseed Meal - short - term long), C2509 (Corn - watch pressure), AP2510 (Apple - around 7900), PK2510 (Peanut - around 8100), FG2509 (Glass - watch risk), RU2509 (Rubber - watch) [2] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small number of put option short - positions in MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. The large - finance sector is building up strength to rise, while the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant, and the short - term sentiment transmission still affects the bond market, with the future dependent on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of a trade agreement between the US and countries like Europe and Japan eases the risk - aversion sentiment, causing gold to fall from its high. Gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average due to the weakening credit and the driving of the commodity attribute. Silver has further room to rise under the support of the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflow, and long positions can be held [2]. - **Shipping and Black Metals**: The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to be weak in the near - month, and it is advisable to short the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices. In the black metals sector, the sentiment has improved, with increased iron - water production and steel mills' restocking. However, there are different strategies for different products such as taking profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Energy Chemicals**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly due to anti - involution policies. Alumina prices have fallen from the high due to concerns about the resumption of factory capacity in Shanxi. In the energy chemicals sector, different products face different market conditions, such as short - term weakness in oil prices, and different trading strategies are proposed for each product [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different market trends. For example, palm oil is strong, sugar has a loose overseas supply and is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and cotton is strong in the short - term but shorted at high prices in the medium - term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: There is high - low rotation among sectors, large - finance is building up strength, and the A - share market has risen and then fallen. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Gradually take profits on IM long positions, switch to MO put option short - positions, and be mainly moderately bullish. In the short - term, adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and focus on the Politburo meeting [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Situation**: The short - term sentiment transmission affects the bond market, and it is difficult to say that it has stabilized [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on the Politburo meeting's incremental policies and actual demand changes. Continue to play the steepening strategy for the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - **Market Situation**: Gold has fallen from the high due to eased risk - aversion, while silver has the potential to rise further [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold long positions in silver, and gold maintains a relatively strong oscillation above the 60 - day moving average [2]. Shipping and Black Metals - **Market Situation**: The container shipping index (European Line) is falling, and the black metals sector has improved sentiment with increased iron - water production and restocking [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short the container shipping index contracts; take profits on long positions in iron ore, coking coal, and coke at high prices, and hold long positions in steel [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Market Situation**: Copper prices are oscillating strongly, alumina prices have fallen from the high, and other non - ferrous metals have different price trends [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading ranges and strategies are proposed for each non - ferrous metal product [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Market Situation**: Oil prices are weak in the short - term, and different energy chemicals products face different supply - demand and market sentiment situations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies such as range trading, shorting at high prices, and option trading are proposed for each product [2]. Agricultural Products - **Market Situation**: Different agricultural products have different supply - demand and price trends, such as strong palm oil and loose sugar supply [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Different trading strategies are proposed for each agricultural product, such as shorting on rebounds for sugar and shorting at high prices in the medium - term for cotton [2]. Special Commodities - **Market Situation**: Glass and rubber are affected by macro and sentiment factors, with large price fluctuations [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe and pay attention to risk avoidance for glass, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy for rubber [2]. New Energy - Related Commodities - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and market situations [3]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for all of them and pay attention to price risks [3].

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced continuous adjustments recently, with the main contracts showing slight declines as of July 23 [1] - The macroeconomic indicators demonstrate resilience, with GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, slightly exceeding market expectations [2] - Industrial value-added growth in June was 6.8%, indicating a recovery, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, which grew by 9.7% [2] Group 2 - New RMB loans in June reached 2.24 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations by 110 billion yuan, supported by government bond financing [3] - The central bank has taken measures to maintain liquidity, including a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 200 billion yuan [4] - Market sentiment has been affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectations, leading to significant price increases in some domestic goods [4] Group 3 - The long-term upward logic of the bond market remains unchanged, but the current environment poses increased risks for bullish positions due to the stock-bond "teeter-totter" effect [5] - Investors are advised to use the futures market for hedging potential risks, while also considering the central bank's supportive stance on liquidity [5]

晨星(中国)基金研究中心高级分析师吴粤宁对记者表示，如果市场情绪反转或价格回调，追高买入的投 资者可能面临较大损失。此外，除了价格波动，信用债市场还可能存在市场结构失衡、流动性风险集中 等隐患，尤其在市场波动时，ETF的申赎机制可能放大对债券市场的影响。 除了风险资产表现强势导致"股债跷跷板"效应之外，华泰固收称，高拥挤度也是债市的一个风险因素。 当前，债券基金规模提速与高波动并行。刚刚披露完毕的基金二季报数据显示，债券型基金规模扩容较 快。截至二季度末，公募债券型基金规模达到了10.93万亿元，创下历史新高，相比一季度末的10.07万 亿元增长了8600万元。三季度以来，债券型基金规模继续扩容，如债券ETF获资金净流入近千亿元。 近期，债市出现波动，债券基金普遍迎来调整。 7月23日，债券市场延续调整态势，银行间主要利率债收益率集体上行，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年 期主力合约跌0.21%，10年期主力合约跌0.11%，5年期主力合约跌0.09%，2年期主力合约跌0.03%。 随着A股市场持续反弹，市场风险偏好回升被认为是债市调整的重要原因之一，尤其是利空长债。例如 场内交易的2只30年国债ETF近5日跌幅 ...