Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings are significant events that impact global financial markets, influencing both the dollar and gold prices, serving as a key indicator for investors seeking opportunities in volatile markets [1] - Investors need a reliable and efficient investment platform to convert market insights into actual advantages during the rapidly changing gold market on Fed meeting nights [3] Group 2 - The safety and compliance of an investment platform are crucial during potential market volatility, with the company holding an AA class trading license from the Hong Kong Gold Exchange and being strictly regulated by law [4] - The company has been recognized as one of the top three most active London gold/silver traders by the Hong Kong Gold Exchange for three consecutive quarters, indicating strong market liquidity and execution efficiency [5] - Choosing a robust and qualified platform is essential for successfully navigating opportunities in the gold market during Fed meetings, with the company positioned as a reliable partner for investors [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates that interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the next meeting, with two rate cuts anticipated by the end of the year, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00% [3] - Economic growth expectations have been downgraded while inflation expectations have been raised, indicating ongoing stagflation risks [3][4] Group 2 - Recent indicators show that U.S. economic activity continues to expand steadily, with low unemployment and a stable labor market, although inflation remains "slightly high" [4] - The Fed is closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, have not significantly escalated, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold [4] Group 3 - UBS forecasts that global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings, predicting a gold price of approximately $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year [5] - The World Gold Council's latest survey indicates that central banks have added over 1,000 tons of gold annually for the past three years, double the average growth rate of the previous decade [5] - 95% of survey respondents expect an increase in global central bank gold reserves over the next 12 months, supporting the bullish outlook for gold prices [5] Group 4 - The gold ETF fund (159937) is designed to closely track domestic gold prices, offering low entry barriers and diverse trading options [5] - Long-term, gold's value is expected to rise in line with the expansion of credit money supply and its role in hedging tail risks in investment portfolios [5] - Gold assets have historically performed well during both overheated and recessionary economic cycles, suggesting a favorable investment environment for gold ETFs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is experiencing a favorable environment for potential price increases in the third quarter, driven by easing tariff sentiments, moderate economic slowdown without recession risks, and a mild decline in inflation, which may lead to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of June 18, the gold ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 94.96% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2] - The fund's highest monthly return since inception was 10.62%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and a maximum gain of 16.53% [2] - The fund has a historical probability of 100% for profitability over a three-year holding period, with an average monthly return of 3.27% and an annual profit percentage of 80.00% [2] Group 2: Risk and Return Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is reported at 2.53, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3] - Year-to-date, the fund has experienced a relative drawdown of 0.37% compared to its benchmark [4] Group 3: Fees and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, while the custody fee is 0.10% [5] - The fund has demonstrated high tracking accuracy, with a tracking error of only 0.002% over the past month [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are crucial for setting the federal funds rate, significantly impacting global financial markets, particularly the dollar and gold prices [1] - Understanding the FOMC meetings and their mechanisms is essential for gold investors to seize market opportunities [1] Group 2 - Interest rate changes affect gold prices: during rate hikes, gold prices typically face pressure as the dollar strengthens and opportunity costs rise; during rate cuts, gold becomes more attractive as cash holdings lose appeal [2] - The attractiveness of gold increases during low-interest periods, especially amid rising inflation concerns [2] Group 3 - The company offers specialized sessions during FOMC meetings, providing in-depth analysis of policy impacts and market dynamics [3] - Monitoring key economic indicators such as core inflation and employment data is crucial for understanding market expectations [3] Group 4 - The company boasts a team of experienced analysts focused on FOMC policy trends and gold market research, providing timely and authoritative insights [4] - Emphasis on client fund security through adherence to regulatory standards and advanced data encryption technologies [4] - The FOMC meetings are identified as a core variable driving gold market price fluctuations, highlighting the importance of market analysis and fund security for capturing investment opportunities [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current gold spot market is characterized as a "game for the brave," with medium-term price expectations remaining bullish due to several supporting factors [1] - Central banks of major economies have been continuously increasing their gold reserves since 2018, with 49 countries and regions expected to add approximately 460 tons of gold from January 2024 to March 2025, accounting for 9.2% of global supply [1] - The average proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves has risen from 8.2% to 9.4%, indicating a growing preference for gold as a reserve asset [1] Group 2 - There is an expectation of declining real interest rates, which is another factor supporting gold prices [1] - Historical trends show that gold prices tend to exhibit a volatile upward trend during trade frictions, with current prices having historically surpassed $3000 per ounce, highlighting gold's value as a safe-haven asset amid global monetary expansion and weak real output [1] - The gold ETF (518800) tracks the gold spot Au99.99 contract and reflects the price changes in the domestic high-purity gold market, serving as a clear indicator of the overall trend and investment value in the gold market [1]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with recent data indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold investments [1][2][4]. Market Trends - COMEX gold futures reached a near one-month high of $3,476.3 per ounce on June 16 but fell below $3,400 per ounce by June 18, with London spot gold prices also declining to around $3,380 per ounce [2]. - The global gold ETF market saw its first monthly net outflow since November of the previous year, with a 1% decrease in total assets under management to $374 billion and a reduction of 19 tons in total holdings to 3,541 tons [2][4]. Central Bank Actions - Over 90% of central banks surveyed expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, marking the highest level of confidence since the survey began in 2019 [4][5]. - Approximately 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the coming year, driven by ongoing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties [5]. Predictions and Scenarios - Citibank has lowered its target price for gold, suggesting that in a pessimistic scenario, prices could drop below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026 [4]. - The bank outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a basic scenario with prices stabilizing between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce, an optimistic scenario where prices could exceed $3,500 per ounce due to economic recession and geopolitical tensions, and a pessimistic scenario where prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce if geopolitical risks ease [4]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by factors such as ongoing trade tensions, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a contraction in dollar credit [3].

DWS预计，债息会持续波动，但在未来12个月将于目前水平企稳，令债券成为具吸引力的投资选项。 在不明朗的市况下，投资组合必须涵盖多元资产类别以分散风险。 DWS预期，10年期美国国债票息率将在目前水平附近整固，但存在大幅上升的风险。预测明年6月票息 率为4.5厘。 日前，DWS发布2025年6月市场展望，DWS全球首席投资总监Vincenzo Vedda提及，黄金今年升幅约 25%，表现突出。支撑黄金的因素包括地缘政治风险持续、美元信心下降、环球流动性增加，以及各国 央行持续买入。此格局料将维持，DWS上调目标价至明年6月每盎司3750美元。另外，预期美联储将继 续对通胀风险保持审慎，最快于今年秋季才会开始减息，并于2026年中之前再减息四次。至于欧洲央 行，已于6月初连续第八次下调主要利率至2%。由于欧元区的通胀已受控，进一步减息的空间料将减 少。 面对美国的多边关税争端及消费意欲疲弱环境，企业投资意欲下降，拖累美国经济增长。DWS预计 2025年美国经济增长仅1.2%(2024年为2.8%)。至于欧洲，预测2025年经济增长为1.1%，略低于美国，但 相较2024年仅0.8%的增速仍有起色。 DWS指出， ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月18日 灵宝黄金（03330.HK） 优于大市 扎根河南，拓展海外，黄金矿企进入发展快车道 扎根河南的黄金矿企。公司是河南省黄金采选冶领军企业，目前形成日采 选矿石 7000 吨的生产规模，2024 年产矿产金 5.2 吨，占国内金矿产量 1.37%。2024 年公司营收中，金锭业务收入占税前收入的 96.8%。公司矿山 资源分别位于中国河南、新疆、江西、内蒙古及甘肃及吉尔吉斯，拥有 37 个采矿权及勘探权，总探采面积达 216.04 平方公里。截至 2024 年底， 公司总黄金储备资源量约 131.81 吨（约 4.1 百万盎司），矿产金产量 5.2 吨。 金价有望继续保持强势。美元信用边际走弱刺激黄金需求，年初至今（截 止至 6 月 11 日），美元指数已下跌 9.1%：不改下降趋势。央行购金对 金价形成中长期推力。全球央行购金量连续 3 年超过 1000 吨，远超 2010-2021 年平均 473 吨的水平。俄乌冲突和中东局势或持续扰动市场 情绪，黄金受多重因素影响有望继续保持强势。 公司拥有五大矿山基地和一个冶炼加工企业：灵宝南山、南阳桐柏兴源、 新疆哈巴河华泰、内 ...

周二（6月17日），现货黄金价格以3389.49美元/盎司收盘，盘中一度逼近3400美元整数关口，延续了 近期在高位震荡的态势。尽管地区局势持续发酵，但金价涨幅仍受美元强势压制。现货白银价格飙升至 13年新高，最终收涨2.32%，报37.13美元/盎司。周三（6月18日）亚盘，金价在3388美元/盎司附近窄幅 波动，市场观望情绪浓厚。 地区局势的持续成为近期黄金价格的核心支撑因素。地区局势已持续多日，加剧了市场对冲突升温的担 忧，使得黄金作为传统避险资产的吸引力显著增强。投资者在不确定性中寻求安全资产，黄金ETF持仓 量近期持续攀升。然而，天誉国际风险评估模型提示，若地区局势出现缓和迹象，金价可能面临短期回 调压力，建议投资者结合局势动态灵活调整仓位。 三、美联储政策"按兵不动"，市场降息预期升温 美联储将于周三公布最新利率决议，市场普遍预期其将维持4.25%-4.50%的政策利率区间不变。然而， 市场对降息的呼声为市场增添了变数。部分观点认为，降息可缓解债务压力，但需平衡通胀与经济增长 风险。 美联储鲍威尔面临两难抉择：一方面，通胀数据虽有所回落，但地区冲突推高油价可能重新点燃通胀预 期；另一方面，贸易政策 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact gold prices, with rate hikes typically leading to lower gold prices due to increased opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold, while rate cuts tend to support gold prices [2] - The internal dynamics between the "hawkish" and "dovish" factions of the Federal Reserve influence gold market trends, with hawkish signals often resulting in price drops and dovish signals leading to price increases [3] - Geopolitical tensions and unexpected events drive gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with historical data showing significant price increases during crises [4] Group 2 - New investors should focus on key moments during Federal Reserve decision nights, such as the release of policy statements and the chairman's press conference, as these can indicate future market movements [5] - To navigate the volatility during interest rate meetings, new investors are encouraged to practice with simulated trading accounts to build their skills and understanding of market reactions [6][7] - The company offers a low barrier to entry for new investors, with features like zero-commission trading and minimal transaction sizes, making it easier for beginners to engage in gold trading [8]