Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is expected to be a process of asset allocation rebalancing, with significant importance placed on asset allocation this year, particularly in the context of the equity market's substantial rise in the second and third quarters [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has recently announced the resumption of bond buying, which is a liquidity injection tool aimed at addressing short-term liquidity pressures in the bond market [1][2] - The PBOC's bond buying in October was limited to 20 billion, but if extended over a month, it could return to a normal level of around 100 billion, indicating a continued commitment to maintaining a loose monetary environment [2] - The resumption of bond buying is expected to stabilize the bond market, particularly for ten-year government bonds, suggesting that the market will enter a period of reduced volatility [2] Group 2: Market Conditions and Supply Pressure - The bond market is expected to return to its allocation characteristics, with a focus on longer-duration bonds that exhibit lower volatility, particularly the ten-year bonds [3] - There is significant supply pressure in the bond market due to weak demand from the real economy, but this pressure is expected to ease towards the end of the year, especially after November [3][4] - The year-end period is typically a time when large traditional bond investment institutions, such as banks and insurance companies, engage in pre-allocating bonds for the upcoming year, leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand [3] Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Market Outlook - Current fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be moderate, with a focus on 500 billion in policy financial tools and another 500 billion in advance local government bond issuance, which may support stable economic growth but not lead to significant upturns [4] - The overall economic environment remains weak, with indicators such as PMI and financing data suggesting that the economy is still in a bottoming phase, which is reflected in the real estate sector as well [4] - The bond market is seen as relatively favorable under these conditions, with limited upward risks and a stable environment expected through the year-end window [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The bond market is viewed as having high allocation value, particularly from November to the pre-Spring Festival period, with limited space for further declines in yields [5] - The central bank's lack of intent to lower interbank funding prices suggests that the bond market will maintain a stable yield level, with the ten-year government bond being a key focus for investors seeking both allocation and trading opportunities [5][6] - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as an advantageous investment tool, providing easy access to the bond market and supporting flexible trading options for investors [6]

这是LPR自6月份以来连续6个月保持不变。 贷款市场报价利率（LPR）由各报价行按公开市场操作利率加点形成的方式报价，由全国银行间同业拆借中心计算得出，为 银行贷款提供定价参考。目前，LPR包括1年期和5年期以上两个品种。 来源：中国人民银行 11月20日9时，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025年11月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期 LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 深体深秘 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查绞计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征 ...

中新社雅加达11月19日电 (记者 李志全)印度尼西亚央行19日宣布，将基准利率维持在4.75%，同时保持 存款利率3.75%和贷款利率5.50%不变。 这是印尼连续第二个月将基准利率维持在4.75%。印尼央行上一次降息是在今年9月。 印尼央行行长佩里·瓦吉约在当天的新闻发布会上表示，当前短期政策重点在于稳定印尼盾汇率并吸引 外资流入，以在全球金融市场不确定性加大的背景下增强印尼经济韧性。他强调，此举也为确保此前各 项宽松政策的效果持续发挥。 今年以来，印尼央行已累计五次降息，共下调125个基点。印尼媒体称，在年内货币政策大幅宽松之 后，印尼央行将进入"降息暂缓期"。 不过，佩里·瓦吉约指出，未来仍存在进一步降息的可能。他表示，是否继续下调利率将取决于金融市 场稳定状况、经济运行走势等。印尼央行将继续保持政策的前瞻性与灵活性。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 ...

一些（Several）与会者认为可能适合12月降息，许多（Many）人认为今年内可能适合维持利率不变；多人认为今年提高关税对通胀影响有限，多数人 认为，在通胀高企且就业市场降温背景下，降息或加剧通胀风险、或被误解为降通胀承诺不够；一些人关注金融资产估值过高，担心若市场突然重新评估 AI前景，股价无序下跌；几乎一致支持12月结束缩表，多人支持提高短债持仓占比。"新美联储通讯社"：可能占微弱多数的决策者对12月降息感到不 安。 大多数（Most）与会者认为，FOMC转向更为中立的政策立场，有助于避免劳动力市场状况可能大幅恶化。"其中 许多（Many）与会者 还 认为 ，鉴于越来越多 的证据表明， 今年提高关税对整体通胀的影响可能有限 ，委员会应适当放松政策立场，应对就业下行风险。" 会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次货币政策会议上，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减 资产负债表（缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， ...

Well, the minutes show no surprise that there was a very divided Fed at the last meeting. Some thought that inflation was going to rise too high. Some thought that unemployment rate rise to high and nobody could agree on what to do at the December meeting.In general, they agreed that inflation had moved up. The economy was expanding at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate remained low. But they did not agree on the outlook.Several said that inflation ex tariffs was close to target, but many noted infla ...

Economic Context - Major economies such as the U.S., China, India, and the European Union are experiencing significant budget deficits and increased borrowing in bond markets, raising concerns about a potential global credit crisis and contagion [1] - The U.S. and China are showing signs of slowing growth, leading to easing monetary policies, which is expected to boost demand for gold and silver [3] Central Bank Activity - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with China adding an estimated 15 tons in September, contributing to a total of 64 tons purchased globally, more than tripling from the previous month [2] - Central bank purchases have been a key driver of gold's bull run over the past three years, although the exact figures are often under-reported by countries [2] Market Sentiment - Elevated risk aversion is evident in global stock markets, with the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) surpassing 24, indicating increased safe-haven buying of gold and silver [4] - The current geopolitical climate has seen a reduction in tensions, which may negatively impact the demand for safe-haven metals [12] Price Projections - The silver market is projected to target $60.00, with current prices above $50.00, while gold is targeting a record high of $4,398.00 per ounce, with a potential to reach $5,000.00 next year [9][10] - The bull runs for gold and silver are noted to be long-standing, with gold's bull run lasting 10 years and silver's 5.5 years, indicating a cyclical nature that may lead to a downturn [12]

By Michael S. Derby (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve’s decision last month ​to announce a looming halt to the drawdown ‌of its balance sheet earlier than many had expected drew broad support ‌from central bankers, who also expressed interest in reweighting central bank holdings from longer-dated bonds toward Treasury bills, meeting minutes from the late October policy ⁠meeting released on Wednesday ‌said. “Many participants indicated that a greater share of Treasury bills could provide the ‍Federal Reserve ...

Core Viewpoint - Iceland's central bank unexpectedly lowered its interest rate to 7.25%, the lowest in over two years, due to a slowdown in economic growth and easing inflation concerns [2][5]. Economic Conditions - The central bank's monetary policy committee unanimously agreed to reduce the 7-day deposit rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%. Market participants had generally expected the rate to remain unchanged [5]. - The central bank anticipates that inflation will decline faster than previously assumed, with signs of a turning point in economic activity becoming more evident [5][7]. - The economy is expected to contract again in the third quarter following a decline in the second quarter, with a projected annual growth rate of 0.9% for this year and 1.6% for 2026, significantly lower than earlier forecasts [6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Despite a cumulative rate cut of 175 basis points since October of the previous year, inflation accelerated to 4.3% in October, the highest level since January [6][7]. - The central bank's survey indicates that market participants expect average inflation to remain around 3% over the next 5 to 10 years [6]. - The central bank noted that the turmoil in the mortgage market, exacerbated by a recent court ruling halting some housing loans, could tighten borrowing conditions and financial environments further [5][7]. Future Outlook - The decision to lower rates was partly to counteract the tightening effects on household borrowing conditions and the financial environment [7]. - Future rate cuts will depend on clear signals of inflation moving towards the central bank's target of 2.5% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of two regulatory measures signifies that the previously "invisible hand" of brokers will now operate under strict oversight, requiring them to be identifiable, traceable, and accountable in their operations [2][4]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The "Interbank Market Brokerage Business Management Measures" outlines clear operational rules for brokerage services in the interbank market, specifying what brokers can and cannot do [6][7]. - Brokers are restricted to facilitating existing transactions without engaging in primary issuance or price manipulation, ensuring they act solely as intermediaries [8][9]. - All brokerage activities must be traceable, with real-time reporting of quotes and transactions to the central bank, and communication records must be securely stored for at least five years [9][10]. Group 2: Licensing and Governance - The "Currency Brokerage Company Management Measures" establishes criteria for who can operate as a licensed brokerage, requiring a minimum registered capital of 100 million and a history of profitability [15][16]. - The scope of services for currency brokerage companies has been expanded to include gold and derivatives, allowing them to provide brokerage services across various financial markets [15][16]. - Governance and data security are emphasized, mandating a comprehensive internal control system and the preservation of all transaction-related information for five years [16][17]. Group 3: Market Impact and Observations - The first successful gold inquiry spot transaction under the new regulations indicates a shift towards a more transparent and regulated market environment, enhancing liquidity and price discovery [20][21]. - The regulatory changes are expected to reshape the industry landscape, moving from "gray intermediaries" to licensed brokers and in-house brokerage departments within financial institutions [25]. - The business model is transitioning from profit through hidden spreads to value creation through transparency and data services, challenging brokers to demonstrate their competitive edge in a regulated environment [26][28]. Group 4: Regulatory Objectives - The focus of regulation has shifted from merely preventing incidents to ensuring accountability and traceability in brokerage activities, creating a comprehensive regulatory loop from institutions to behaviors and data [30][31]. - The new framework aims to transform brokers from an "invisible hand" into a clearly defined entity with identifiable actions, potentially stabilizing the market during periods of volatility [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting power dynamics between the U.S. presidency and the Federal Reserve, highlighting how Trump's actions and rhetoric have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the stability of the U.S. dollar's creditworthiness [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Independence - The Federal Reserve is described as a powerful institution that influences both the U.S. economy and global financial markets, with its decisions impacting over $70 trillion in financial assets [2]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining confidence in the U.S. dollar, as it prevents monetary policy from being swayed by short-term political interests [3][5]. - Trump's public criticism of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reflects a significant challenge to this independence, as he seeks to influence monetary policy to benefit his political agenda [4][10]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's desire for low interest rates and loose monetary policy is aimed at boosting the stock market and economic growth to enhance his political standing, which conflicts with Powell's focus on inflation and employment [4][8]. - The potential for Trump to replace Powell raises alarms about the Fed becoming a political tool, which could undermine the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [4][10]. - The article warns that if the Fed loses its independence, it could lead to a loss of trust in the U.S. financial system, resulting in a significant shift in global capital flows and a potential financial crisis [9][10]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - The ongoing debate about the Fed's independence has led to increased volatility in the dollar index and a trend towards "de-dollarization" among various economies, indicating a growing distrust in the U.S. financial system [9][10]. - The article emphasizes that the stability of the global financial system relies on the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is threatened by political interference in monetary policy [10][12]. - Countries are increasingly exploring alternatives to the dollar, which could reshape the global financial landscape and reduce reliance on U.S. monetary policy [13][14].