Group 1: Conflict Overview - The core conflict revolves around monetary policy disagreements and escalating personal attacks between Trump and Fed Chairman Powell [1][2] - Trump demands a reduction in interest rates from the current 4.25%-4.5% to 1% or lower, claiming that each 1% cut could save the U.S. $360 billion in annual interest payments [1] - Personal attacks include derogatory remarks towards Powell, labeling him as "stupid" and "Mr. Too Late," while also threatening his resignation over budget overruns [1][4] Group 2: Powell's Response - Powell emphasizes the independence of monetary policy, stating it should be based on economic data rather than political influence [2] - He cites the Federal Reserve Act, asserting that the President cannot dismiss the Fed Chairman due to policy disagreements, with his term lasting until May 2026 [2][4] Group 3: Legal and Institutional Constraints - The legal framework restricts the dismissal of the Fed Chairman to cases of "misconduct or crime," with no historical precedent for successful removal [4] - A Supreme Court ruling further reinforces that the President lacks the authority to arbitrarily dismiss heads of independent agencies [4][6] Group 4: Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $36 trillion, and a 1% interest rate reduction could save $360 billion in interest, significantly exceeding tariff revenues [6] - Trump attributes inflation to Powell's refusal to lower rates, while the Fed counters that Trump's tariffs have contributed to rising prices [7] Group 5: Market Reactions - The dollar index fell nearly 11% within the first six months of Trump's presidency, marking a three-year low [8] - Gold prices surged, with a single-day increase of 13%, the highest since 1968, driven by political uncertainty [9] - Goldman Sachs warns that if the Fed's independence is compromised, gold prices could soar to $4,500 per ounce [10] Group 6: Ongoing Developments - As of July 17, Trump has paused his actions, stating it is "unlikely" he will fire Powell but insists on a change within eight months [11] - Powell has requested an investigation into the renovation budget overruns and maintains a data-driven approach, hinting at potential rate cuts in September [12][13] - The conflict highlights a struggle between short-term political gains and long-term economic stability, with both parties facing significant challenges [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, as expressed by major bank CEOs in response to President Trump's discussions about potentially firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - CEOs from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup publicly defended the Fed's independence, stating it is crucial for the U.S. economy and financial markets [2][3] - Concerns were raised that political pressure on the Fed could undermine its credibility and disrupt global markets, particularly affecting the status of U.S. Treasury securities and the dollar [4] Group 2 - The total assets of the banks led by the mentioned CEOs exceed $12 trillion, highlighting their significant influence in the financial sector [3] - Trump indicated he might have "justifiable reasons" to dismiss Powell, citing excessive spending on renovation projects, but later stated he does not plan to take any action [4] - Bank of America CEO Moynihan noted that the stability of the Fed is critical not only for the U.S. but also for the global economy, given the size of the U.S. economy and its debt [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Short-term gold is expected to oscillate in a strong manner within a range, and the medium- to long-term bullish view remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade games in early August and the changes in interest rate cut expectations brought by the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting later in the month [1][3] - After silver was blocked at the $40 mark, it oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse. The medium-term view is bullish on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In June, the US PPI increased by 2.3% year-on-year (expected +2.5%, previous value revised from +2.6% to +2.7%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.3%). Core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year (expected +2.7%, previous value revised from +3.0% to +3.2%); month-on-month it was flat (expected +0.2%, previous value revised from +0.1% to +0.4%) [2] - US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, a general tariff would be used to impose a tax rate slightly higher than 10% on small countries. Larger economies are discussing coordinated tariff agreements, and negotiations with the EU, Vietnam and other countries are progressing smoothly [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent proposed to increase the issuance of short-term Treasury bonds to disperse the debt repayment pressure under the high-interest rate environment, but this strategy has caused market concerns about the long-term credibility of the Treasury and refinancing risks [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals oscillated during the day, and the short-term decline of the US dollar index at night drove the overall increase of precious metals. The US PPI data in June was slightly lower than expected, having little impact on sentiment [3] - The market's attention to the change of the Fed Chairman next year is increasing. In the second half of the year, besides the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut path, the emergence of a "shadow chairman" may reignite the market's concern about the Fed's independence [1][3] - Silver faced resistance at the $40 mark and then oscillated and declined in the short term. In the medium term, the three logics suppressing silver's elasticity are difficult to reverse, maintaining a bullish view on the trend of silver but cautious about its elasticity [3] Outlook - Weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Compared with the current inflation and employment data, the setback of the Fed's independence is the main line of subsequent precious metal market trading. The expectation of loose monetary policy will drive the prices of gold and silver to strengthen further, and silver will benefit more from this expectation. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 759 - 809 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9020 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Shanghai Gold rose 0.36% to 779.28 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.02% to 9162.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold fell 0.15% to 3354.20 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.02% to 38.13 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.46%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.32 [2]. - In terms of specific varieties, Au(T + D) fell 0.51% to 772.20 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) fell 0.82% to 9109.00 yuan/kilogram; London Gold fell 0.64% to 3323.80 US dollars/ounce, London Silver fell 1.01% to 37.88 US dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.33% to 950.79 tons, SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.25% to 14819.29 tons [4]. Market Outlook - Last night, Fed Chairman Powell faced a "removal storm", and the independence of the Fed's monetary policy was once again severely impacted, which strongly supported the prices of gold and silver. Although Trump later said he had no plan to fire the Fed chairman, the issue of the Fed's independence still affects market expectations [2]. Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.71% to 3354.20 US dollars/ounce, trading volume rose 31.12% to 23.25 million lots, and open interest rose 1.25% to 44.31 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) fell 0.48% to 776.66 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 14.60% to 33.05 million lots, and open interest fell 0.16% to 40.41 million lots [7]. - Silver: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 0.37% to 38.13 US dollars/ounce, open interest fell 0.47% to 16.28 million lots, and inventory rose 0.11% to 15464 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.79% to 9152.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 0.78% to 99.85 million lots, and open interest fell 3.52% to 96.73 million lots [7]. Price Structure and Spread - The report provides multiple price structure charts such as the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold, London Gold - COMEX Gold spread, and the near - far month structure of Shanghai Gold, as well as internal and external spread statistics of gold and silver, including SHFE - COMEX spread and SGE - LBMA spread [21][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, including policy announcements, economic data, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show varying trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][6]. - For stocks, the market may experience style rotations, and it is advisable to go long on IF stock index futures at dips. For bonds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term, and it is recommended to enter the market at dips. For precious metals, silver is favored for long - positions due to the expected weakening of the Fed's independence. In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals face different supply - demand situations, with some expected to be under pressure and others to be in a volatile state. In the energy and chemical sector, each product has its own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly. In the agricultural products sector, different products also present different investment opportunities based on factors such as supply, demand, and policy [3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: The State Council meeting discussed key policies for the domestic market and the new energy vehicle industry. The national power load hit a new high. Huang Renxun predicted the development of AI in the robot system. US PPI and inflation data were released, and Ethereum prices rose [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH showed different basis ratios. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs and the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures at dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: TL, T, and TF contracts declined slightly, while the TS contract rose slightly on Wednesday. - **News**: US CPI data was released, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September is high. The US - China tariff truce deadline is flexible. - **Strategy**: The economy showed resilience in Q2, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank's actions indicate a loose money - supply attitude, and it is recommended to enter the bond market at dips [4][6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold fell slightly and COMEX silver rose slightly. - **Market Outlook**: The "removal - of - Fed - chair" incident supported precious metal prices. The weakening of the Fed's independence is expected to drive precious metal prices higher, and it is recommended to go long on silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper prices fell, and Shanghai copper prices were stable. LME copper inventory increased, and the cancellation warrant ratio decreased. - **Outlook**: Trump's tariff on copper may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, and copper prices are expected to be under pressure and trade in a weak - volatile range [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum prices fell, and Shanghai aluminum prices were stable. Shanghai aluminum contract positions decreased, and LME aluminum inventory increased. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity market is positive, but aluminum has inventory accumulation pressure due to factors such as low - level processing fees and weak downstream demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, they are expected to be volatile due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and the photovoltaic industry [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME lead prices fell. Lead supply is relatively loose, and social inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to a slight oversupply in the lead market [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices fell on Wednesday. A fire incident had limited impact on supply. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices were weak on Tuesday. - **Outlook**: Supply is short, and demand is weak. Due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is unfavorable, and it is recommended to pay attention to news and market sentiment [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. - **Outlook**: The long - term over - capacity situation remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall market sentiment [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the traditional off - season, and demand is weak. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures contract price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the off - season, and prices are expected to face resistance due to factors such as aluminum price pressure and large futures - spot price differences [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: The market is affected by the Central Urban Work Conference. The current fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and demand recovery [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron - ore futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is slightly weak, and iron - ore prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price fell slightly, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fell, inventory increased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. - **Outlook**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but the short - term market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to be rational and consider hedging for the industry [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices rose and then fluctuated slightly. - **Outlook**: There are different views on the market. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - term and neutral - to - bullish in the short - term [36][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of high - reality and low - expectation. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [41]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price rose slightly, and the spot price fell. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [43]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, and the futures price rose. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost - side [44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG futures price rose, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The short - term is expected to be strong, but the long - term fundamentals are weak [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA futures price rose, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is under pressure, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX futures price rose, and the CFR price fell. - **Outlook**: The short - term valuation is compressed, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile due to factors such as trade policy and seasonal demand [50]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July due to weak supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Pig prices fell. - **Outlook**: Short - term long - positions may be profitable, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Egg prices were stable or rose. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short - sell [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: US soybeans rebounded, and domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait for new supply - side drivers [56][58]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data and Indian vegetable oil import data were released. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as production and policy [59][61]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weak and volatile. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [64].

面对特朗普解雇鲍威尔的传闻，美国银行业领袖正罕见地公开发声，强调捍卫美联储的独立性对美国经 济与金融稳定至关重要。 本周，随着美国总统特朗普公开讨论解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性，华尔街顶级银行的首席执行官们 相继介入。摩根大通的戴蒙周二率先表态后，高盛的David Solomon、美国银行的Brian Moynihan及花 旗集团的Jane Fraser也在周三一致发声，力挺央行在不受白宫或政治干预的情况下独立运作。 这些银行家管理的总资产超过12万亿美元，他们的集体发声凸显了市场的深层忧虑。银行家们担心，美 联储信誉受到侵蚀将可能扰乱全球市场，削弱美元和美债的吸引力，引发难以预料的连锁反应。 此前华尔街见闻撰文，报道称鲍威尔周三将被面谈，特朗普已起草解雇信函。消息出炉后，美债、黄 金、比特币价格走高，美股和美元下跌。此后特朗普回应称，还不打算将美联储主席鲍威尔免职，但仍 暗示"正当理由"可行。这一系列举动，最终促使这些通常对政治保持距离的银行高管站到了前台。 罕见的集体发声 华尔街最有权势的几位银行家一致认为，一个独立的央行是美国经济竞争力的基石，干预美联储的独立 性可能对全球资本流动造成巨大影响。 许多业 ...

隔夜，围绕美国总统特朗普可能解雇联储局主席鲍威尔的传闻，金融市场上演了一场短暂而剧烈的压力测试。这场风波从传言四起到特朗普出面 否认，仅持续了不到一小时，却足以一窥若美联储独立性遭到挑战，市场将会如何反应。 华尔街见闻稍早前提到，周三，有白宫官员透露特朗普可能很快免职鲍威尔，此后报道称，鲍威尔周三将被面谈，特朗普已起草解雇信函。消息 传出后，美股、美元迅速下跌，短期国债则因投资者押注新任主席将迎合总统意愿降息而上涨，黄金、比特币亦走高。 不到一小时后，特朗普否认了这一可能性，称还不打算将美联储主席鲍威尔免职，但仍暗示"正当理由"可行。市场随即扭转此前趋势。 这场风波的核心问题在于，市场的反应究竟向白宫传递了何种信号。是警告特朗普政府不要轻举妄动，还是反而鼓励了他，认为市场的反应在可 控范围内？ 一些分析师认为，市场的反应可能让政府意识到，解雇鲍威尔并非经济和市场的万能药。但也有观察人士警告，市场在特朗普否认前的表现并不 是那么糟糕，可能鼓励他未来再迈一步，市场可接受窗口已被推得更宽——对投资者而言，这是更糟情境的开始。 是警醒还是鼓励？对市场反应的两种解读 市场对特朗普解雇鲍威尔传言的反应虽然相对克制，但仍显 ...

传闻引发市场巨震 据媒体援引知情人士的话称，特朗普周二与一些众议院共和党人沟通是否应该解雇美联储主席鲍威尔， 他甚至起草了一封解雇鲍威尔的信，并在加密货币会议上向议员们展示了这封信。 特朗普认为，鲍威 尔对两座美联储大楼的大规模翻修项目的处理可能是前所未有、在法律上可解雇他的理由。 值得一提的是，佛罗里达州共和党众议员露娜（Anna Paulina Luna）在社交媒体上也写道："从很可靠 的信源得知，鲍威尔可能要被解雇。"，"我99%确定近在眼前。" 受此影响，美国三大股指一度大幅跳水，回吐盘中涨幅，中长期美债收益率下行。联邦基金利率期货定 价显示，9月降息概率曾逼近70%。 罢免美联储主席或将面临司法挑战。 美股周三盘中大幅跳水，消息称美国总统特朗普正在考虑解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，外界担忧美联储独立 性因此将受到挑战。随后特朗普向外界予以澄清，称相关报道不实，他大概率不会解雇鲍威尔，" 除非 证明存在欺诈行为"。他还透露，白宫经济顾问哈塞特是其考虑担任美联储职位的人选。 反复施压失去耐心 特朗普对于美联储主席鲍威尔的不满由来已久。为了施压美联储降息，6月以来美国总统频频在社交媒 体上施压，并曾给鲍威尔发了一 ...

本文字数：999，阅读时长大约1.5分钟 2025.07. 17 银行股业绩公布后表现分化。 高盛涨0.9%。高盛二季度营收145.83亿美元，同比下滑28.65%， 净利润37.23亿美元，同比增长22.35%。 美银下跌0.3%。美国银行二季度营收340.66亿美元，同比下滑6.12%，净利润73.96亿美元，同比 增长10.82%。 摩根士丹利下跌1.3%。摩根士丹利二季度营收137.48亿美元，同比增长6.48%，净利润43.15亿美 元，同比增长26.47%。 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周三美股探底回升，市场在美国总统特朗普澄清解雇美联储主席鲍威尔传闻后企稳。 截至收盘，道指上涨231.49点，涨幅0.53%，收于44254.78点，纳指涨52.69点，涨幅0.25%， 收于20730.49点，标普500指数上涨19.94点，涨幅0.32%，收于6263.70点。 美股盘中一度跳水，纳指和标普跌幅超1%，衡量市场波动性的恐慌指数VIX触及三周高位。报道 称，特朗普对解雇鲍威尔的想法持开放态度。 特朗普随后很快否认了这些报道，尽管他对鲍威尔没有降息提出了新的批评。CalBay Investments ...

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggests that Powell should resign from the Federal Reserve Board after his term ends in May 2026, and the selection process for the next Fed Chair has officially begun [1] - Potential candidates for the next Fed Chair include Mnuchin himself, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh, with Christopher Waller also being considered as a dark horse [1] - Hassett has publicly criticized the Fed's decisions, indicating that the Fed's independence should not shield it from presidential scrutiny, especially regarding interest rate policies [1][2] Group 2 - There is increasing criticism of Powell from the Trump administration, with calls for a 3% interest rate cut, which could save the government $1 trillion annually [2] - Concerns are raised about the potential impact of political pressure on the Fed's credibility, with industry leaders emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence for maintaining stable inflation and economic growth [2][3] - Analysts warn that any perceived weakening of the Fed's independence could lead to significant volatility in financial markets, including potential sell-offs of U.S. Treasury bonds [3]