2025 年 6 月 11 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将震荡整理 铜、螺 纹钢、铁矿石、原油、PVC 期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2506 阻力位 3863 和 3879 点，支撑位 3830 和 3819 点；IH2506 阻力位 2681 和 2689 点，支撑位 2653 和 2644 点；IC2506 阻力位 5766 和 5801 点，支撑位 5700 和 5673 点；IM2506 阻力位 6168 和 ...

从市场运行节奏看，沪指反身向上，正在尝试挑战 5 月中旬的高点。沪指于 5 月中旬逐步向下调 整，呈现高低点同步下移特征。但最终在 60 天均线获得支撑后，重新展开了一波反弹，目前正在接近 5 月中旬的高点。当然，去年四季度的成交密集区以及今年一季度的市场高点附近仍有较强技术阻力。 首先，市场短期聚焦中美经贸磋商的进程。继上周四中美两国领导人电话沟通之后，双方的新一轮 经贸磋商在英国正式拉开帷幕。近期国内资本市场重心缓慢上移，这其中也已经部分定价了中美贸易缓 和的预期。当然，如果会谈的具体结果低于市场预期的话，短期市场出现些许调整也属正常。目前来 看，围绕基本面预期的波动尚在可控范围之内，预计短期仍是区间震荡行情。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 其次，两市震荡回落，成交增加。周二，两市平开后，上午横向整理，午后出现一波快速的调整， 尾盘略有收回，沪指收盘于略低于五天线。深圳成指周一刚站上 60 天均线，周二再次跌破，显示上方 仍有压力。两市量能超过了 1.4 万亿元，较本周一明显增加。微观结构上，全天个股涨少跌多，涨停股 票数量有所减少。当天市场热点主 ...

Group 1: US Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll report for May showed resilience in the labor market, with 139,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 126,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, but there was notable internal structural divergence, with the U1 unemployment rate decreasing and the U4 rate increasing [2] - Job growth in the service sector was strong, with an increase of 145,000 jobs, particularly in leisure and hospitality, as well as transportation and warehousing, while the goods-producing sector saw a decline of 13,000 jobs [2] Group 2: Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, with a year-over-year growth rate steady at 3.9% [2] - The broad increase in wages across various sectors has intensified inflation concerns, providing the Federal Reserve with more reasons to maintain a cautious stance [2] Group 3: China's Foreign Trade Performance - China's foreign trade maintained a steady growth trajectory, with total goods trade value reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [3] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports fell by 3.8% to 7.27 trillion yuan [3] - The central region of China led the growth in foreign trade, significantly outpacing the national average, supported by the "Central China Rising" strategy [3] Group 4: US-China Economic Negotiations - Following internal conflicts within the US administration, there is potential for a shift in the US's hardline stance during US-China economic negotiations, with initial meetings expected to yield positive outcomes [4] - US Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary reported productive discussions, indicating a possible easing of external pressures on China's economy [4]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 11 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡走强 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 ...

东莞证券认为，周二，A股市场午后快速走低，创业板指领跌。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多 涨少。政策积极落地预期以及国内经济结构性亮点、科技领域技术突破催化等，都有望带动市场中结构 性机会显现和股市赚钱效应的增加，短期大盘或保持震荡蓄势，若后续成交量能持续放大指数有望实现 突破，否则仍将维持震荡走势。关注中美经贸磋商机制首次会议及6月底政策落地，同时留意经济数据 和美联储议息会议。 中原证券认为，周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，盘中银行、电力、医药以及航运港口等行业表 现较好；半导体、航天航空、软件开发以及电机等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡整理的运 行特征。5月降准降息落地后，市场资金面整体处于宽松充裕状态。现阶段货币政策尚有增量空间，预 计将伴随外部环境变化适时推出。财政政策则持续发力专项债和新质生产力领域，为经济高质量发展提 供坚实后盾。市场预计美联储最早或于9月份进行下一次降息操作，海外流动性进一步宽松尚需等待。 预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外盘的变化情况。 中信证券认为，5月A股市场投资者情绪整体平稳，上半月受益于中美贸易摩擦明显改善，下半月因内 需和 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, and the overall view is oscillation, with the core logic being the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation yesterday. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, and the consultation result is highly uncertain. Due to the deepening of the uncertainty of tariff prospects and the marginal weakening of domestic macro - economic indicators, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. The market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the effect of monetary tools may be less than that of fiscal tools, so the possibility of boosting demand through continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is not high [5].

美东时间6月10日周二美股临近尾盘时，美国商务部长卢特尼克讲话提及会谈，传来被视为顺利的会谈利好，美股大盘应声走高，热门中概股总体涨幅扩 大。 两大美股指标普500和纳指加速上涨，尾盘均刷新日高，标普涨逾0.6%，纳指涨逾0.7%，道指盘中涨幅曾扩大到110点以上，向午盘所创的日高靠近。 芯片股指尾盘也刷新日高、费城半导体指数的日内涨近2.3%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数（HXC）盘中涨幅扩大到0.3%以上，逼近美股早盘刷新的日高。 离岸人民币（CNH）兑美元的汇率跌幅略有收窄，美股尾盘曾收复7.1890，日内跌不足60点。 "卢特尼克的加入也意味着，中方有权继续就美方实施的出口管制这一问题提意见、要解释、要回应。" 玉渊潭天的文章援引美国媒体的报道称，没人希望会谈陷入僵局，紧接着，文章指出： "而在此之前，中方就已经明确表态：美方应实事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措。无论美方来了谁，都应清楚理解，中方有 诚意，同时也有原则。" 新华社6月10日稍早发文称，国际舆论认为中美经贸磋商意义重大，既直接关系到中美探索化解贸易争端的路径，又事关全球经济增长前景。 市场对中美会谈相关消息的迅速反应部分体现了全 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's CEO Ren Zhengfei emphasizes resilience and long-term commitment to technological advancement despite external pressures, advocating for societal support for foundational scientific research [1][2][4]. Group 1: Huawei's Strategy and Resilience - Huawei continues to progress in the face of sanctions from Western countries, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, demonstrating a commitment to long-term goals and strategic patience [1][3]. - The company plans to invest 179.7 billion yuan in R&D for 2024, marking a 9.1% increase year-on-year, which constitutes 20.8% of its sales revenue [3]. Group 2: National Support and Policy Environment - The development of private enterprises like Huawei is supported by China's comprehensive industrial system, infrastructure, talent supply, and legal environment, which have been enhanced through recent policies [2][4]. - The implementation of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" aims to optimize the development environment for private enterprises, reinforcing long-term institutional confidence [2]. Group 3: R&D Investment and Innovation - China's total R&D expenditure is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.3% increase from the previous year, maintaining its position as the second-largest R&D investor globally [3]. - China's R&D intensity reached 2.68%, ranking 12th among major countries and surpassing the EU average of 2.11% [3].

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism has entered its second day, continuing discussions after lunch [1] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued opinions on deepening the comprehensive reform pilot in Shenzhen, aiming to enhance reform, innovation, and expand openness [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security will implement the removal of household registration restrictions for flexible employment personnel in insurance participation, aiming to steadily expand occupational injury protection trials for new employment forms [1] - The "Live E-commerce Supervision Management Measures" are open for public consultation, requiring live marketing personnel to provide truthful, accurate, and comprehensive product or service descriptions, prohibiting deception or misleading consumers [1] - Several car manufacturers, including GAC and Dongfeng, have committed to standardizing payment terms to within 60 days [1] International News - The EU proposed to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45 in the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, while Putin extended the oil supply ban measures [2] - The UK experienced the largest drop in employment numbers since 2020 in May, leading traders to fully price in two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England within the year [2] - The ruling party in South Korea proposed the "Basic Law on Digital Assets," allowing domestic companies to issue stablecoins [2]

(本文来源：玉渊谭天) 当地时间6月10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议进入第二天。会议从上午开始，在午餐后继续进 行。 ...