1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a state of weak shock. Factors such as reduced supply, weakened demand, and falling crude oil prices have jointly influenced the market, with the spot price being weak and the futures price showing a weak shock trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The asphalt production rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. Some refineries like Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residue oil. It is planned that refineries such as Shandong Shengxing will also switch to residue oil production, and the asphalt production rate will remain low [3][19] - In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and a decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year [3] Demand - The start - up rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable last week. The start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 33%, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [3] - From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 4.3% year - on - year. The infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1% year - on - year [27] - With the continuous decline in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited [3] Market Conditions - As of the week of November 14, due to the reduced supply in North China, the national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 31.02% week - on - week to 213,000 tons, at a moderately low level [3][23] - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [3][29] - OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become more widely recognized, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [3] - The forward low - price resources of refineries were released intensively. Recently, the basis of asphalt in Shandong has weakened and is currently at a neutral level. The spot price is weak, the market is cautious, and the asphalt futures price is in a weak shock [3] - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to - 27 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [14]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 17, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Crude Oil Futures: Supply Glut, Geopolitical Instability - Author: Shi Xiuming - Investment Consultation Qualification Number: F0255552 - Email: shixiuming@nzfco.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International oil prices fluctuated slightly in the week ending November 14, 2025. The prices rose in the first half of the week due to factors such as increased Chinese crude oil imports in October, a weaker US dollar, and the US government's progress in ending the shutdown, as well as ongoing sanctions on Russia and infrastructure attacks in Ukraine. However, they declined in the second half after the OPEC monthly report forecast a supply glut [2]. - Despite the downward pressure from the overall supply glut in the crude oil market, geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russia and attacks on energy facilities introduce uncertainties and partially offset the downward pressure, leading to a volatile and fluctuating price trend in the short - term. Traders should pay attention to the resistance level of 470 yuan/barrel for the 01 contract [2]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - As of November 14, 2025, SC2601, Brent, and WTI oil prices were 463.6 yuan/barrel, 64.39, and 59.39 US dollars/barrel respectively. SC2601 and Brent prices rose slightly from the previous weekend, while WTI fell slightly [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Crude Oil | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 463.60 | 460.60 | 3 | 0.89% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 65.19 | 65.12 | -0.07 | -0.08% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 64.29 | 63.70 | 0.59 | 0.93% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 59.81 | 59.67 | -0.03 | -0.05% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13651 | 211 | 1.55% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 427581 | 421168 | 6413 | 1.52% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 704 | 528 | 171 | 33.33% | Weekly | [4] Market Data Charts - Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of different crude oil products (SC, Oman, Brent, WTI), their spreads, as well as relationships with factors like the US dollar index. Also, charts display supply (OPEC and US production, US rig counts), inventory (OECD and US inventories), demand (refinery inputs, utilization rates in the US, China, Europe, and India), and cost - profit (refinery profits) aspects [6][12][18][25][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global crude oil market is in a state of structural supply surplus, with both OPEC and EIA expecting oversupply. However, factors such as OPEC's lower - than - expected production increase, the uncertainty of Russian energy supply, and the return of funds are providing some support to oil prices. The market outlook is complex, and short - term oil prices may oscillate at low levels. It is recommended to operate in the short term within the range of 455 - 475 and wait and see in the long term [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - **Price Trends**: Last week, NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $59.81 per barrel, up 0.93% week - on - week; Brent crude futures closed at $64.29 per barrel, down 0.05% week - on - week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 461.7 yuan per barrel, up 0.24% week - on - week [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global market has shifted from a daily supply shortage of 400,000 barrels to a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels. EIA expects the U.S. oil production to average 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, higher than the previous estimate. Indian refiners said that Saudi Arabia and Iraq would fully deliver the contracted crude oil volume to India in December and could increase the supply [3]. - **Production**: In October, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.43 million barrels, an increase of 30,000 barrels from September, with the increase lower than the planned 114,000 barrels. Despite Ukraine's drone attacks, Russia's oil processing volume decreased by only 3% this year, and the decline in refining volume from August to October was 6% [3]. - **Funds**: In the week of November 11, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 12,636 contracts to 164,867 contracts; as of the week of September 23, the net long positions in WTI crude oil held by speculators increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts [3]. 3.2 Related News - **Fed Policy**: With less than a month until the December interest - rate meeting, the Fed's stance is divided, but the balance is tilting towards keeping the policy unchanged. Several Fed officials expressed hawkish views this week [4]. - **IEA Outlook**: IEA believes there is "considerable downside risk" to Russia's crude oil production outlook, but it has not estimated the specific impact yet. It maintains the estimate of Russia's average daily output of 9.3 million barrels in this quarter and next year [4]. - **Market Structure**: The futures curve of WTI shows a "contango" structure for most of 2026, indicating weak demand for spot - delivered crude oil. In October, U.S. crude oil exports reached the highest level since July 2024. The futures curve of Brent crude oil will remain flat in the months after March next year [4]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil terminals and the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia have led to potential supply losses, driving up oil prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has fluctuated sharply, from nearly 95% to about 50% [5]. 3.3 Outlook - The oil price will oscillate at a low level in the future. It is recommended to operate in the short - term within the range of 455 - 475 and wait and see in the long - term, while paying attention to the progress of geopolitical events [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. have all declined compared with the previous period, with price drops ranging from - 0.36 to - 1.66 dollars and price decline rates from - 0.54% to - 2.56% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated. For example, as of November 7, the Cushing inventory was 22.519 million barrels, a decrease of 346,000 barrels; the EIA inventory was 427.581 million barrels, an increase of 6.413 million barrels [10][11]. 3.5 Position Data - **CFTC and ICE Data**: The net long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil futures have changed. By calculation, the net long positions in WTI crude oil held by speculators and the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures have increased in some periods [3][17][18].

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 赵旭意 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020751 日期：2025年11月16日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：年底或仍有深度调整， | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 关注俄油出口情况 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：年底或仍 ...

Group 1: Tariff Reduction and Economic Impact - The U.S. President Trump signed an order to lower tariffs on various goods including beef, tomatoes, coffee, and bananas to reduce grocery costs in response to voter pressure [1] - The tariff reductions apply to products that the domestic supply cannot meet, including hundreds of food items like coconuts, nuts, avocados, and pineapples, effective from November 13 [1] - This decision reflects a shift in Trump's policy focus towards affordability measures amid growing voter concerns about the economy and acknowledges that previous tariff policies increased consumer price pressures [1] Group 2: Oil Market Volatility - The oil market has experienced significant fluctuations due to various complex factors, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping sharply before rebounding [3] - The initial drop was attributed to OPEC's monthly report indicating a supply surplus, while the subsequent rebound was linked to increased sanctions on Russia and drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, creating supply uncertainties [3][4] - A key Russian port, which accounts for 20%-30% of its crude oil exports, was attacked, impacting short-term exports and driving oil prices up [3] Group 3: Supply and Price Outlook - The oil market is facing a definitive supply surplus pressure, but geopolitical conflicts and sanctions are causing supply disruptions, leading to volatile price movements [4] - Analysts predict that oil prices may test previous lows and could potentially drop below $50 per barrel in the coming months due to ongoing supply concerns and economic pressures [4] - OPEC's forecast indicates a potential supply surplus by 2026, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its supply surplus expectations for next year to approximately 4 million barrels per day [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Traders are advised to maintain short positions and monitor opportunities arising from rising oil shipping rates and cross-regional price spreads [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [5]. Core Views - The market is concerned about oversupply amid geopolitical influences, with oil prices experiencing fluctuations due to recent geopolitical events, including attacks on Russian oil facilities and changes in India's oil procurement from Russia [1][10]. - OPEC's latest report indicates a shift in supply-demand dynamics, predicting a global oil demand of 106.5 million barrels per day by 2026, while current supply exceeds demand by 20,000 barrels per day [1][10]. - Three major international oil agencies have raised their forecasts for global supply growth in 2025, indicating a potential oversupply situation [2][11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of November 14, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, up 1.19% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $60.09 per barrel, up 0.57% [3][39]. - The U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.86 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 15.97 million barrels per day [12][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - EIA, OPEC, and IEA have adjusted their 2025 global supply and demand forecasts, with EIA projecting a supply of 105.98 million barrels per day and demand of 104.14 million barrels per day, resulting in a surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day [2][11]. - OPEC's report suggests a potential supply gap of 830,000 barrels per day if production levels remain constant [2][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with stable performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [4][12]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation increases in companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which has low production costs and increasing output [4][12]. - New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum are recommended due to their growth potential in the domestic market [4][12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the crude oil market will remain in a supply - surplus situation, with the price expected to experience weak and volatile fluctuations. The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and rising exports from the Middle East all contribute to the supply - surplus situation. The adjustment by OPEC from a shortage to a surplus in Q3 2025 and the IEA's prediction of slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 further solidify this view [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil to Asia in December. The end of the demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and a record - high US crude oil production all add to the supply pressure. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies, potential changes in India's oil imports, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela also impact the market. The market is concerned about weakening demand due to factors like the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1]. - The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.66% to 457.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.9 yuan/ton and a high of 462.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 7,385 to 11,067 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC adjusted the Q3 2025 global oil situation from shortage to surplus and the 2026 situation from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. IEA raised the global crude oil supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - As of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. OPEC's September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day, while its October production increased mainly due to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production decreased in October compared to September. US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day in the week of November 7 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.38%. Gasoline and diesel weekly demand increased, driving a 2.03% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate weakly. Supply is decreasing, demand is weakening, and the crude oil supply surplus situation is becoming more obvious, leading to a decline in crude oil prices and a weakening of the asphalt basis. The spot price is weak, and the market is cautious [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In November, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) and a year - on - year decrease of 274,000 tons (11.0%). Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries were stable. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 33% week - on - week, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather. With the continuous decline in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, and subsequent demand will further weaken, while the increase in southern projects is limited [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 31.02% week - on - week to 21,300 tons, at a moderately low level [1]. - Price: The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the crude oil supply surplus pattern has become more of a consensus, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. The forward low - price resources of refineries are being released intensively, the asphalt basis in Shandong has weakened recently, and the spot price is weak, causing the asphalt futures price to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.10% to 3,037 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,001 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,056 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,021 to 192,751 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to - 37 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Shanghai Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% week - on - week, 2.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with January - August 2025 but was still negative. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 2.7%, a slight rebound from - 3.3% in January - August 2025 but still in negative growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 1.1%, continuing to decline from 2.0% in January - August 2025 [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline compared with January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year - on - year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical work volume [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 14, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 14.5% compared with the week of November 7, but it remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. There is a rebound - repair momentum after last week's sharp decline, and the relatively strong oil prices at the beginning of the week provided some support. The asphalt social inventory continued to decline. However, the market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are difficult to improve effectively, and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus will suppress the market in the medium - to - long term. The cost side offers limited upward support. In the short term, due to the large decline, there is still room for rebound - repair, and the increased volatility of crude oil will intensify short - term market fluctuations. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][52] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue, with the US increasing military operations in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory increased significantly, and the OPEC market expectation shifted from tight to surplus [7] - Key data: As of November 12, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 29%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.1 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 82.5 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons from the previous week [7] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: Supply decline and geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand [11] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC's monthly report shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from balanced to surplus. Previously, OPEC expected a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day, but now it indicates a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. OPEC has raised the supply growth forecast of non - OPEC countries by 110,000 barrels per day. In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September. The global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+ has suspended the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, and the relatively strong demand provides some support. Geopolitical uncertainties will intensify oil price fluctuations, and it is expected that crude oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $60 per barrel [12] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and short - term negotiations are unlikely. The relationship between the US and Venezuela remains uncertain. Geopolitical uncertainties have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply for the time being, but they will affect market sentiment and intensify oil price fluctuations [13] 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of refineries is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the supply will continue to decrease [14] - Demand: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 36.2 tons, a decrease of 8.3 tons from the previous statistical date, reaching the lowest level since May. The demand in the north has decreased due to low - temperature weather, and the improvement in the south is not obvious. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 11.22%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from last week but a 0.55 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. It is in a seasonal decline [24][27] - Inventory: As of November 14, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons, mainly in the southwest and south regions. The social inventory was 82.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2 tons, continuing the downward trend since August [34][41] - Spread: As of November 14, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 301 yuan/ton, at a high level in recent years. As of November 12, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 52.38 [50] 3.5 Market Outlook - The market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [52]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market has reached a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PX and PTA are expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations. MEG is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The price rebounds of BZ and EB may not be sustainable [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - The OPEC+ meeting decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, US crude oil inventories are rising, and production is at a record high. The market is concerned about Russian oil exports [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load is at a high of 90%, with multiple units restarting and increasing load. PTA has new capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is tight. PXN is stable at around $250/ton. PTA has many unit shutdowns for maintenance, with a weekly开工率 of 75.8%. There is an expectation of supply increase and demand weakness before the end of the year, with a slight inventory build - up [4][8][14] MEG - The overall load of ethylene glycol has changed little. Coal - based MEG profits are shrinking, and the开工 rate is decreasing. Cost support is weakening, port inventories are at a high, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5][18] BZ & EB - The pure benzene开工率 is rising, and future planned maintenance is limited. Downstream demand is weakening, but overseas blending oil demand may provide some support. Benzene ethylene开工率 is recovering, and the short - term supply contraction effect may fade. The fundamentals of BZ and EB have limited positives, and price rebounds may not be sustainable [5][26][27] Polyester - The average weekly产能利用率 of the Chinese polyester industry is 87.52%, with little change. Downstream polyester short - fiber and long - fiber inventories are slightly decreasing. The comprehensive开工率 of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industry is 67.99%, and new orders are weakening [21]