每日核心期货品种分析 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 04 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。集运欧线涨超 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增 ...

11月以来，市场担忧俄罗斯原油供应回归加剧全球过剩压力，原油价格震荡回落。从需求来看，今年冬 季全球主要经济体原油需求普遍偏弱，这导致原油库存出现累积。 石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）决定明年一季度暂停增产，在一定程度上缓和了市场对原油供应 过剩加剧的担忧，但受俄罗斯原油供应可能回归、美国等非OPEC+产油国原油产量增长等因素影响， 原油供应过剩格局很难逆转。原油价格要想止跌，还需要等待需求改善或产油国减产。 俄罗斯原油供应可能回归 8个OPEC+核心成员国今年4月决定恢复产量之后，沙特已成功夺回部分市场份额，但随之而来的油价 下滑给该国财政带来挑战，使其预算赤字扩大，并迫使其缩减一些旗舰经济项目规模。 从实际产量来看，OPEC原油产量环比继续增长，但增长势头有所放缓。根据OPEC月报，2025年10 月，OPEC原油产量升至2846万桶／日，环比增长0.12%，低于9月1.8%的增速；同比增长7.2%，低于9 月8.9%的增速。 不过，美国等非OPEC+产油国原油产量将继续增长，使得全球原油供应增长继续超过需求增长，过剩 压力很难逆转。根据美国能源信息署（EIA）发布的月报，9月，美国原油产量攀升至逾 ...

Group 1 - Russian President's assistant Ushakov commented on the recent discussions between Russia and the U.S. regarding Ukraine's NATO membership and the impact of Russian military successes on Western evaluations of conflict resolution [2] - U.S. President Trump described the meeting between U.S. envoys and President Putin as "quite good," although he could not disclose the outcomes of the talks [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine is preparing for a new round of talks with U.S. representatives, emphasizing ongoing coordination with partners [5][6] Group 2 - The Turkish Foreign Minister discussed Black Sea security and the end of the Ukraine crisis with NATO Secretary-General during a meeting, following recent attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea [8] - Venezuela's oil exports increased to approximately 921,000 barrels per day in November, despite U.S. pressure, marking the third-highest monthly average this year [10] - The geopolitical factors have led to significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with recent data indicating a potential oversupply in the market [12][13]

Group 1 - Russian President's assistant Ushakov commented on the recent discussions between Russia and the US regarding Ukraine's NATO membership and the impact of Russian military successes on Western evaluations of conflict resolution [3][4][19] - The US and Russia held a productive meeting on a "peace plan," with US representatives reporting positively to President Trump [5][20] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced preparations for a new round of talks with US representatives, emphasizing ongoing coordination with partners [6][21] Group 2 - Turkey's Foreign Minister discussed Black Sea security and the Ukraine crisis with NATO Secretary-General during a meeting, amid recent attacks on Russian vessels in the Black Sea [7][21] - Venezuela's oil exports increased to approximately 921,000 barrels per day in November, despite US military actions in the Caribbean [8][22] - The international oil market is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical factors, with recent price fluctuations and concerns over oversupply [9][23] Group 3 - The expectation of a significant return of Russian oil supply is rising as peace talks progress, but the outcome remains uncertain [11][24] - OPEC+ has maintained its production levels, contributing to concerns about oversupply in the global oil market [14][27] - The increase in global oil shipping and floating storage is expected to exert pressure on land inventories and oil prices [28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing producers will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. After the end of the peak oil demand season, EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventories increased slightly. US crude oil production is near a record high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term, the US - Venezuela military stand - off has escalated, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was attacked. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations rising, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The end of the peak oil demand season, a decline in the US November ISM manufacturing index, and continuous production increases by OPEC+ and increased exports from the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in global floating crude oil storage. The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. However, due to the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and the rising expectations of a Fed interest - rate cut, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, fell 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 444.6 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 452.8 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 249 to 31,517 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and has raised its forecast for US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC has adjusted the Q3 2026 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecasts for global crude oil supply and demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026 [5] 3.4 Inventory and Supply Data - As of the week of November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [6] 3.5 Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The single - week supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.41% month - on - month [7][8]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report anticipates that crude oil prices will oscillate at a low level. Although the market is currently in a state of supply surplus, the recent difficulty in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium by Ukrainian drones, and the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut are likely to support the price [1]. Summary by Section Market Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed the suspension of production increases in Q1 2026 [1]. - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and due to increased net imports, US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected, leading to a slight increase in overall oil inventories [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near its historical high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations of limited US crude oil growth at low prices [1]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term. There is a concern about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya due to geopolitical tensions [1]. - The market is worried about crude oil demand as the consumer peak season ends, the US ISM manufacturing index in November decreased month - on - month and has been in contraction for nine consecutive months. OPEC+ continues to increase production, Middle - East exports are rising, and global floating crude oil storage is increasing, resulting in a supply - surplus situation [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract, 2601, rose 0.09% to 453.8 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.1 yuan/ton and a high of 456.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1458 to 31,766 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报: It expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报: It adjusted the third - quarter global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA: Its annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050. The IEA月报 raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, the 2026 supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, the 2025 demand growth rate by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 demand growth rate by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), 4.50% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day. Its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September, reaching 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year [4]. - Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year [6]. - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The overall US crude oil product single - week supply increased by 0.41% month - on - month due to the rebound in gasoline and other oil products [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent trend of crude oil prices is expected to be volatile. After the Fed's December interest - rate meeting, the market will still worry about crude oil demand. With OPEC+ continuing to increase production, rising exports from the Middle East, and a continuous increase in global crude oil floating storage, the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in late December. However, if the Russia - Ukraine peace talks reach a deadlock and Russian oil product exports are restricted, crude oil prices may be firm [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - From late October to mid - November, crude oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The market digested the news of Russian crude oil being sanctioned by Europe and the US. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders met market expectations, and bilateral relations remained unchanged. OPEC+ planned to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend the increase in the first quarter of next year, alleviating concerns about supply pressure in Q1 2026. EIA inventory continued to accumulate, and US ISM manufacturing data was poor. OPEC adjusted the third - quarter 2025 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, rising gasoline and diesel crack spreads in Europe and the US, and the escalation of the Venezuelan situation supported crude oil prices. In late November, the Trump administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, causing crude oil prices to fall. Near the end of the month, as the possibility of a near - term Russia - Ukraine peace agreement was low, crude oil prices rebounded slightly [7]. 3.2 Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - In November, the net position of WTI was not announced. The net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased after hitting a low in November. As of the week ending November 18, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased by 13,497 contracts to 178,364 contracts, an increase of 8.19% and 3.96% compared to the end of October. The enthusiasm for speculative long positions in crude oil began to recover but remained at a low level in recent years. - As of November 26, the Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipt volume decreased by 738,000 barrels to 3.464 million barrels compared to the end of October, still at a low level [11]. 3.3 Crude Oil Production - On the supply side, OPEC's latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. - The latest OPEC+ meeting agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026. Eight additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reiterated the suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year. - In the week ending November 21, US crude oil production decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, near the historical high [15]. 3.4 Oil Drilling Rigs - In November, the number of US oil drilling rigs continued to decline. As of the week ending November 26, the number of US oil drilling rigs was 407, a decrease of 12 compared to the previous week and 7 compared to the week ending October 31. The significant decrease of 12 US oil drilling platforms in a week increased the expectation that low oil prices would limit US crude oil production growth [19]. 3.5 US Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to US Energy Administration data, as of the week ending November 21, US crude oil imports increased by 486,000 barrels per day to 6.436 million barrels per day, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years; US crude oil exports decreased by 560,000 barrels per day to 3.598 million barrels per day, also at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [23]. 3.6 China's Crude Oil Processing Volume and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume rebounded month - on - month. In October, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 1.18% month - on - month to 63.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.40%, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. From January to October, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.00% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate continued to rise slightly. - China's domestic crude oil imports also rebounded month - on - month, at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. In October, China's crude oil imports increased by 2.35% month - on - month to 48.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. From January to October, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 3.10% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly [27]. 3.7 US Dollar Index - The director of the US White House National Economic Council, Hassett, said that if nominated as the Fed Chairman, he "would be very happy to serve." - The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut has increased [30]. 3.8 Gasoline Crack Spread - The US is trying to promote Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the US have fallen from their highs. In November, the gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $2.0 per barrel and $0.5 per barrel respectively. The diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $3.0 per barrel and $5.0 per barrel respectively [34]. 3.9 US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. The OPEC monthly report adjusted the third - quarter 2025 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. Additionally, the OPEC monthly report maintained the forecast of the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day. The IEA monthly report raised the 2025 global crude oil supply growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day and the 2026 rate by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease compared to the same period last year, shifting from being higher than the same period last year to lower. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.789 million barrels per day, a 0.06% increase compared to the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.743 million barrels per day, a 0.17% decrease compared to the same period last year. Although diesel demand declined significantly month - on - month, the rebound in gasoline and other oil products drove the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase month - on - month [38]. 3.10 Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of November 26, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 55,000 barrels, and was 4.50% lower than the five - year average. It increased by 10.963 million barrels in the past four weeks. The Cushing area inventory was reported at 21.753 million barrels, a decrease of 68,000 barrels compared to the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, and decreased by 812,000 barrels in the past four weeks. - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.513 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 745,000 barrels. It decreased by 834,000 barrels in the past four weeks. Gasoline inventory was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years and continued to accumulate seasonally. - As of the week ending November 21, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 411.4 million barrels, the highest since the week ending September 30, 2022. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has increased for 18 consecutive weeks. - On November 20, 2025, the US Department of Energy announced a reorganization, prioritizing oil and nuclear resources and replacing the previous department focused on renewable energy and energy efficiency [42][46]. 3.11 Geopolitical Risks - US Secretary of State Rubio said that the talks with Ukraine were "productive" after the new round of US - Ukraine negotiations, but there was still much work to be done. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu formally submitted a pardon request to President Herzog [48].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated weakly with a pattern of falling first and then rising. Concerns about a possible peace agreement led to sudden intraday drops in oil prices in the first half of the week, while in the second half, as it became clear that the demands of Russia and Ukraine were still far from consensus, the concerns eased and oil prices rebounded from the lows [2]. - The OPEC+ meeting on Sunday decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year and remained cautious about whether to continue increasing production after April next year, indicating concerns about oversupply and strengthening the reality of an oversupplied crude oil market [3]. - Short - term negotiations between the US and Russia are crucial, especially with Putin set to meet the US Middle East envoy. Attention should be paid to geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of November 28, the prices of SC2601, Brent, and WTI crude oil were 453.9 yuan/barrel, 62.32, and 58.48 US dollars/barrel respectively [2]. - The "peace plan" changed from 28 to 19 items. US officials said Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement with some minor details undetermined, but Russia remained calm and was not in a hurry to negotiate on key issues [2]. Fundamental Data Changes | Type | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | yuan/barrel | 453.900 | 447.40 | 6.50 | 1.45% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 64.43 | 62.96 | 1.47 | 2.33% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 62.32 | 61.89 | 0.43 | 0.69% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 58.48 | 57.98 | 0.50 | 0.86% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | thousand barrels/day | 13862 | 13834 | 28 | 0.20% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | thousand barrels | 426929 | 424155 | 2774 | 0.65% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | yuan/ton | 621 | 854 | - 233 | - 27.28% | Weekly | [5] Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors, weekly crude oil data, and India's procurement policies [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market maintains a volatile pattern, with short - term multi - and short - factors in balance, but the medium - to long - term supply surplus pressure remains unchanged, and oil prices are in a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the substantial progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break out of the volatile range, and it is recommended to play lightly within the range. The long - term trading logic depends on the evolution of the supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases and US sanctions on Russia loosen, and OPEC+ production policies are relaxed, supply pressure will increase, while the global economic weakness may limit demand growth [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The crude oil market shows a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and US sanctions on Russian energy companies support oil prices at the bottom, but the expectation of increased Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions relief and long - term supply surplus concerns suppress oil prices. Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia, weakening the support for oil prices [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The short - term market is volatile and relatively stable. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For single - side trading, operate within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and support around $62/ton for Brent crude oil. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions in Venezuela with the US, the UK's delay in sanctioning Lukoil, and two oil tankers exploding and catching fire in the Black Sea may support oil prices [7][8]. - **Negative Information**: The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation lowered the official selling prices of most of its December - loaded crude oil grades [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: The progress of the talks will affect market expectations of Russian oil supply. A breakthrough may increase supply surplus concerns, while a deadlock may raise geopolitical risk premiums [11]. - **OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting**: OPEC+ may keep the Q1 2026 oil production unchanged, and the market is worried about supply surplus risks [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices remain stable, continuing the recent volatile pattern and declining for the fourth consecutive month [14]. - **Domestic Market**: The SC2601 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 455.9 yuan/ton last week, up 0.44% week - on - week. The trading volume was 55,800 lots, and the open interest was 73,000 lots [16][17]. - **International Market**: The settlement price of the ICE Brent crude oil futures main contract was $62.38/barrel, up 0.69% week - on - week; the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures main contract settled at $58.48/barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week. The trading volume of the Brent contract was 1.5387 million lots, and the WTI contract had a trading volume of 1.4125 million lots with an open interest of 379,500 lots, an increase of 42,000 lots [18][19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $1.23/barrel, the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.46/barrel, and the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was - 5.6 yuan/barrel [28]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the SC - Brent spread was $0.58/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $4.65/barrel [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - This week, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and refinery profits were divided. The East - West crack spreads weakened [44]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - EIA slightly raises the forecasts for global and US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. In October, global crude oil and related liquid production decreased by 310,000 barrels per day compared to September, while US crude oil production increased by 10,000 barrels per day [77]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on US refinery crude oil weekly feed and operating rates, as well as Chinese refinery operating rates, reflecting the demand situation in the refining industry [68][70]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil inventories [74]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on US and Russian crude oil export volumes and related shipping data [76]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - In October, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production decreased compared to September. EIA slightly raises the forecasts for OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 [77].