Group 1 - Trump stated that the U.S. does not seek a ceasefire but demands Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons, keeping the door open for negotiations with Iran [1] - Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a "fool" and insisting that the Fed should lower interest rates by 200 to 250 basis points [1] - Trump announced that Apple will purchase a significant number of his proposed $5 million "golden cards," which allow wealthy immigrants to pay for a pathway to U.S. citizenship [1] Group 2 - Trump expressed doubts about whether U.S. actions, such as using massive bunker busters, could effectively destroy Iran's heavily fortified nuclear facilities [2] - The Trump administration resumed processing foreign student visas but required applicants to provide their social media account information [2] - Trump privately approved an attack plan against Iran but has not yet issued a final order, aiming to pressure Iran into abandoning its nuclear program [2] - Trump had a phone conversation with Mexican President López Obrador, discussing a comprehensive agreement to address security, immigration, and trade issues [2]

当地时间6月18日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，美股大型科技股表现分化。大宗商品方面，国际金价、油 价均有所回调。 | 招标 | 成分 资讯 | | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 322.050 | 1.80% | 5.700 | | TSLA.O | | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) NVDA.O | 145.480 | 0.94% | 1.360 | | 苹果(APPLE) AAPL.O | 196.580 | 0.48% | 0.940 | | 微软(MICROSOFT MSFT.O | 480.240 | 0.46% | 2.200 | | 脸书(META PLATF META.O | 695.770 | -0.21% | -1.460 | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) AMZN.O. | 212.520 | -1.07% | -2.300 | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· GOOG.O | 173.980 | -1.83% | -3.250 | 热门中概股多数下跌，Wind数据显示，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌0.82%。指数成分股中，逸 ...

专题：美联储连续第四次维持基准利率不变 仍预计今年将再降息两次 摩根资产管理美联储6月会议快评 美国5月整体及核心CPI环比均出现下行，供应管理会制造业PMI连续3个月低于荣枯线50，失业率则连 续3个月维持在4.2%，但6月13日以伊冲突升高中东地缘政治风险，国际油价急速上行，为美联储6月会 议增添不确定性。美东时间6月18日，美联储6月会议维持政策利率不变，但最新公布的经济前瞻指引显 示美联储委员下调年内经济增长，上调年内通胀；最新的利率点阵图则显示年内或仍有降息二次可能； 美联储主席鲍威尔会后发言整体仍然偏鹰，但市场表现相对平静，万得数据显示，昨夜标普500指数几 乎平盘作收，纳斯达克指数大跌3.56%，美元指数上涨0.1%，美国10年期国债收益率较前个交易日下行 1个基点至4.38%。 | 预测中位数 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | | (1.7%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | (1.8%) | | 失业率 | 4.5% | 4 ...

中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今夜无眠，大事超多！ 【导读】全球等待美联储最新的利率政策决议，特朗普称伊朗错失达成协议的机会，对打击计划含糊其辞 此外，美联储的利率决议预计将于美东时间下午2点（北京时间19日凌晨2点）公布。市场普遍预期美联储将维持利率不变，但投资者将重 点关注美联储主席鲍威尔会后发布会上的言论。 交易员也在关注政策制定者对于未来利率路径的预测——联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将公布成员的"点阵图"利率预期。 交易员押注今年将有不到两次降息，且首次降息已完全被市场定价在10月。数据显示，美国初请失业金人数徘徊在八个月高位附近，这一 情况对市场预期影响不大。 Miller Tabak的马特·马利表示："本周的走势像跷跷板一样反复无常。特别是考虑到一切都取决于今天美联储的表态，以及中东局势的进 展。" 市场普遍预计，美联储将在本次会议上连续第四次维持利率不变，并重申在调整借贷成本前，需要更明确了解各项政府政策的影响。尽管 部分官员可能继续预测今年会有两次降息，但也有经济学家认为"点阵图"可能只显示一次。 美股上涨 6月18日晚间，美股三大指数上涨，投资者密切关注中东局势的最新进展，并等待美联 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact gold prices, with rate hikes typically leading to lower gold prices due to increased opportunity costs of holding non-yielding gold, while rate cuts tend to support gold prices [2] - The internal dynamics between the "hawkish" and "dovish" factions of the Federal Reserve influence gold market trends, with hawkish signals often resulting in price drops and dovish signals leading to price increases [3] - Geopolitical tensions and unexpected events drive gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with historical data showing significant price increases during crises [4] Group 2 - New investors should focus on key moments during Federal Reserve decision nights, such as the release of policy statements and the chairman's press conference, as these can indicate future market movements [5] - To navigate the volatility during interest rate meetings, new investors are encouraged to practice with simulated trading accounts to build their skills and understanding of market reactions [6][7] - The company offers a low barrier to entry for new investors, with features like zero-commission trading and minimal transaction sizes, making it easier for beginners to engage in gold trading [8]

6月2日，美国华盛顿特区，杰罗姆·鲍威尔出席美联储成立75周年大会。图片来源：AL DRAGO—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES 随着美联储（Federal Reserve）官员释放出维持利率不变的长期信号，投资者和经济学家本周将密切关 注美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，希望从他身上找到一些蛛丝马迹，判断可能最终促使央行采取行动的因 素以及行动时机。 美联储连续四次会议维持利率不变，可能再次招致唐纳德·特朗普总统的猛烈抨击。但政策制定者们已 明确表示：在采取行动之前，他们需要白宫解决关税、移民和税收等重大问题。以色列对伊朗核设施的 袭击也给全球经济带来了另一个不确定因素。 与此同时，美国经济总体健康，或许正在缓慢降温，几乎没有人预期近期会有利率变动。根据期货合约 定价，投资者押注美联储最早也要到9月份才会下调借贷成本。 信安资产管理公司（Principal Asset Management）首席全球策略师西玛·沙阿表示："在当前没有降息紧 迫性的情况下，最稳妥的做法就是按兵不动。" 艰难抉择 人们普遍预期，美国总统特朗普的关税政策将推高物价并抑制增长，美联储官员在上次会后声明中指出 了这些风险。 ...

证券研究报告 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但联储主要关注国内就业市场和通胀走 势,预计 6 月会议大概率维持利率不变。中东地缘政治冲突一度显著推高 原油价格,近期已有所回落,对美国经济和通胀影响较为有限。5月联储会 议以来,美国就业和通胀数据指示联储大概率维持利率不变。一方面,5月 会议以来,中美关税降级,市场对美国经济衰退的担忧下降,美国就业市场 有序降温:4-5月新增非农人数连续超预期,但3个月移动均值整体下行; 周度首申、续中人数也显示就业市场放缓,但未大规模裁员。另一方面,5 月 CPI、PPI 通胀整体不及预期,关税对通胀的推升暂不明显,但高频数据 显示关税仍在推高商品价格,联储仍可能担忧关税带来通胀压力。 宽观 6 月 FOMC 预览:联储仍有等待的空 | 华泰研究 | | | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 中国内地 | 动态点评 | 概览:北京时间6月19日(周四)凌晨美联储将公布6月议息会议决定, 虽然中东地缘政治冲突推高油价,但我们预计目前对联储影响有限,联储主 要关注国内就业市场和通胀的走势:就业市场有序降温、关税对通胀传导暂 不明显,因此预计联储６月会议上将维持利率 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Sell on rallies [2] - Coking coal and coke: Low-level oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Low-level oscillation [2] - Glass: Weak oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - SSE 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward movement [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong oscillation [6] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [6] - Logs: Oscillation [6] - Edible oils (soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil): Rebound [6] - Meal (soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybeans No.2): Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Wait-and-see [9] - MEG: Wait-and-see [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand situation in various industries is complex, with some industries facing supply surpluses and weak demand, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market trends are diverse, including downward pressure, oscillation, and rebound opportunities [2][4][6][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments are rising, but iron water production is falling, and port inventories are decreasing. The valuation is relatively high, and prices may decline if iron water production falls below 2.4 million tons. Hold existing short positions and consider adding on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: High supply and weak demand persist. Coke production costs are falling, but steel mills are proposing price cuts, and inventories are increasing. The market follows the trend of finished products [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Entering the off-season, demand is weakening, production is decreasing, and inventory decline is slowing. Total demand is expected to show a front-loaded pattern, and prices are likely to fall [2] - Glass: There is no substantial positive news. Production capacity is slightly decreasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is at a high level. Long-term demand recovery is difficult [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating, with attention paid to downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows, while others had outflows. Market sentiment is affected by policies and economic data, and long positions in stock indices are recommended [2][4] - Treasury bonds: Yields are stable, and the central bank is conducting reverse repurchase operations. The market is in a narrow rebound, and light long positions are recommended [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as central bank purchases, currency credit, and geopolitical risks are influencing prices. It is expected to oscillate strongly [4][6] - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by various factors and expected to oscillate strongly [6] Light Industry - Pulp: Spot prices are falling, costs are decreasing, and demand is in the off-season. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Logs: Port shipments are increasing, demand is relatively strong, and supply pressure is easing. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Oil and Fat Industry - Edible oils: Palm oil production and exports are high, and inventories are increasing. Soybean oil is under pressure from high supply, but the market is boosted by biofuel policies. Prices are expected to rebound [6] - Meal: The USDA report is neutral, and the market is affected by weather, trade negotiations, and supply. Prices are expected to rebound, but the upside is limited [8] Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The market is in a weak downward trend, with a loose supply-demand pattern and weak consumption. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, demand is decreasing, and the market is in a pattern of supply exceeding demand. Prices are under pressure and expected to oscillate [9] Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing, but demand may be affected by polyester load. The short-term supply-demand pattern is tight, and prices follow oil prices [9] - PTA: Supply is rising, demand is weakening, and prices follow costs [9] - MEG: Supply and demand are showing a benign structure, and prices are supported. Attention should be paid to polyester load changes [9] - PR: Cost support is strong, and the market may adjust strongly. Follow-up from downstream is to be watched [9] - PF: Affected by oil prices and downstream demand, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]

由于学年将于本月结束，而一些州允许非教学人员在漫长的暑假期间领取福利，申请人数可能会继续上 升。尽管在特朗普的激进关税引发的经济不确定性下，雇主留住工人，没有出现大规模裁员，但劳动力 市场正在逐渐失去动力。白宫对移民的打击也减缓了就业增长。5月份非农就业岗位增加13.9万个，低 于去年同期的19.3万个。 智通财经APP获悉，美国至6月7日当周初请失业金人数 24.8万人，预期24万人，前值由24.7万人修正为 24.8万人;这是自去年10月以来的最高水平。这些数据可能是受到学年结束、学校放假的影响。在2024 年，初请失业金人数在6月初达到了较高水平。这进一步表明失业的美国人重新找到工作的所需时间更 长了。美国至5月31日当周续请失业金人数 195.6万人，预期191万人，前值由190.4万人修正为190.2万 人，为2021年底以来的最高水平。 初请失业金人数与招聘放缓的情况相吻合，这表明美国失业人员正在艰难地寻找工作。然而，该报告所 涵盖的时期包括了阵亡将士纪念日以及一些州的暑假开学前的假期，这使得数据的波动性更大。 彭博经济学家Eliza Winger表示："雇主对经济增长前景持谨慎态度，这导致招聘率 ...

2.黄金建议回调3315-3310附近做多，止损在3302，目标3330-3350。 本交易日市场关注焦点集中于即将公布的美国CPI报告，预计该数据将引发显著市场波动。当前美元指 数维持在98.35-99.50区间震荡。随着美国5月CPI数据将于北京时间周三20:30发布，市场预期在数据公 布后行情将趋于明朗。统计显示，受特朗普政府推行激进关税政策及地缘政治局势动荡影响，2025年初 至今黄金价格已累计上涨逾25%。各国央行持续增持黄金储备，加速从美国资产中撤离资金。此外市场 参与者正密切关注周四的美国国债拍卖情况，若需求疲软可能进一步提升黄金的避险需求。交易员将重 点分析CPI数据以评估美联储利率政策走向，当前市场预计美联储9月降息25个基点的概率约为52%，该 数据可能显著影响市场对美联储货币政策的预期。 操作策略： 1.黄金建议目前3342-3347附近做空，止损在3355，目标3320-3300； 黄金4小时图技术形态显示当前处于震荡整理阶段，晚间建议维持区间震荡交易思路。从4小时K线结构 观察，布林带呈现收口状态，价格在中轨附近反复穿越，短线呈现震荡偏强态势。技术面上方需重点关 注3345-3350 ...