Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on September 25, with a one-year term [1][2]. Digital Economy - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued policies to promote service exports, emphasizing the acceleration of international data service business development [1][2]. - A joint guideline from eight departments encourages the development of digital consumption, urging companies to innovate and increase the supply of AI terminal products [3]. Gaming Industry - The National Press and Publication Administration announced that 145 domestic online games and 11 imported games received approval for publication as of September 2025 [2]. Energy Sector - The China Electricity Council predicts that the national electrification rate will grow steadily at an average annual rate of about 1 percentage point during the 14th Five-Year Plan, reaching around 35% by 2030, exceeding the OECD average by 8-10 percentage points [2]. AI Infrastructure Investment - Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with expectations of a tenfold increase in energy consumption for its global data centers by 2032 [5]. - North American cloud providers, including Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon, are expected to invest over 350 billion dollars in AI infrastructure this year, with projections exceeding 400 billion dollars by 2026 [6]. Construction Materials - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments released a plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, prohibiting new cement and flat glass production capacity [7]. - The plan aims to optimize supply and demand dynamics, with expectations for cement prices to rise and regional leading enterprises to recover profitability [7]. Company Developments - Guoer Co., Ltd. leads in micro speakers, MEMS acoustic sensors, VR/MR products, AI smart glasses, and other smart wearable devices [4]. - Huayi Group expects a net profit of 340 million to 420 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.81% to 109.77% [8]. - Heng Rui Medicine has reached a milestone payment agreement for its innovative drug project, with potential payments up to 1.093 billion dollars [9]. - PetroChina Oilfield Services signed a contract worth approximately 2.553 billion yuan for an overseas project [10]. - Jicheng Electronics won a bid for a project with the State Grid, totaling approximately 81.836 million yuan [11].

AI Hardware - The Ministry of Commerce and seven other departments issued guidelines to promote digital consumption, encouraging companies to accelerate the development of AI terminal products and explore new consumption potential in AI smartphones, computers, and other devices [1] - Dongfang Securities predicts that more large model manufacturers and internet companies will enter the hardware market, creating a direct path from models to terminals to users, which will drive innovation in smart hardware [1] AI Infrastructure - Alibaba's CEO announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, with plans for further investment, anticipating a tenfold increase in energy consumption at Alibaba Cloud's global data centers by 2032 [2] - North American cloud providers are expected to invest over $350 billion in AI infrastructure this year, with projections exceeding $400 billion by 2026 [2] Cement Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to stabilize growth in the building materials industry, prohibiting new cement clinker and flat glass production capacity [3] - Galaxy Securities believes that the "anti-involution" sentiment will accelerate supply optimization in the cement industry, leading to price increases and improved profitability for regional leading enterprises [3] Nuclear Fusion - China Fusion Energy Company showcased its technology and business layout at an industrial expo, aiming for commercial nuclear fusion energy by 2050 [4] - Controlled nuclear fusion is seen as a key to achieving "energy freedom," providing a clean and virtually limitless energy source [4] Physical AI - Alibaba Cloud and NVIDIA announced a collaboration in the Physical AI field, integrating NVIDIA's software stack into Alibaba's AI platform to enhance the development cycle of applications like embodied intelligence and autonomous driving [5] Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued policies to promote digital consumption and support the development of international data centers and cloud computing centers in specific regions [6] - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology projected that the number of new Beidou-supported terminals and devices will exceed 400 million by the end of 2028 [7]

Core Insights - Nvidia has announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI, committing to invest up to $100 billion in infrastructure, including the deployment of at least 10GW of Nvidia systems, which will consist of millions of GPUs [1][2][3] Investment Details - OpenAI will deploy a minimum of 10GW of Nvidia systems, which translates to approximately 10 million kilowatts, and Nvidia will continuously invest as the computing power comes online [1][2] - The total investment from Nvidia could reach $100 billion (approximately 711.47 billion RMB) [1][2] Infrastructure Development - The first GW-level data center based on Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform is set to be deployed in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - The estimated cost to build 1GW of computing power is around $50-60 billion, with Nvidia's chips and systems accounting for about $35 billion of that cost [3] Market Implications - The investment scale for the 10GW data center project is estimated to be between $500 billion and $600 billion, similar to Nvidia's previously announced Stargate project [3] - OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, emphasized that this infrastructure is crucial for achieving OpenAI's goals and delivering services to users [3] AI Industry Trends - The AI landscape is shifting from model competition to a focus on infrastructure expansion, with significant investments being made to overcome computing power bottlenecks [4] - OpenAI has signed a $300 billion five-year contract with Oracle and plans to spend $100 billion on backup servers from cloud service providers over the next five years, in addition to Nvidia's investment [4] Investment Recommendations - The current focus in AI infrastructure is shifting from cloud vendor spending to AIDC cloud computing centers, with companies like Oracle, Coreweave, and others being highlighted for their GPU card advantages [4] - In the domestic market, attention remains on AI infrastructure, with recommendations for companies like Runze Technology and Aofei Data [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several key companies in the AI infrastructure sector, including 德科立, 仕佳光子, 中际旭创, 新易盛, 天孚通信, and 润泽科技 [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant investment by NVIDIA in OpenAI, amounting to up to $100 billion (approximately 711.47 billion RMB), aimed at deploying at least 10GW of NVIDIA systems, which includes millions of GPUs [1][2]. - The transition from "selling shovels" to "delivering shovels" is noted, with the estimated cost of building 1GW of computing power being around $50-60 billion, where NVIDIA's chips and systems account for approximately $35 billion [2]. - The AI sector is entering a phase focused on infrastructure expansion rather than just model competition, with OpenAI's mission to drive "superintelligence" being heavily reliant on computational power [3]. - The report suggests that the current focus in AI infrastructure has shifted from cloud vendor spending to AIDC cloud computing centers, recommending companies with a first-mover advantage in GPU cards [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch include Oracle, Coreweave, Nebius, AppliedGigital, and Iris Energy for their GPU card advantages [4]. - In the domestic market, companies like 润泽科技, 奥飞数据, and 润建股份 are highlighted for their potential in AI infrastructure [4]. Financial Projections - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for several companies, indicating strong growth potential for 2024-2026 [5]. - For example, 中际旭创 is projected to have an EPS of 12.94 RMB by 2026 with a PE ratio of 34, while 新易盛 is expected to reach an EPS of 13.10 RMB with a PE of 27 [5]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for AI infrastructure, with OpenAI's rapid growth and significant contracts with cloud service providers indicating a robust market environment [3]. - The establishment of a 1GW data center by OpenAI in 2026 is anticipated to mark a milestone in the infrastructure arms race, paving the way for large-scale application deployment [3].

Core Viewpoint - Global markets experienced a slight increase last week, with valuations continuing to rise, and the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks dropping to a historical low [1]. Market Performance - Global markets rose slightly last week, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed up by 1.0%, and MSCI Emerging up by 1.1%. In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose significantly. Commodity prices saw gold increase slightly, while oil and copper prices fell. Currency-wise, the U.S. dollar remained stable, the British pound depreciated, the Japanese yen depreciated, and the Chinese yuan remained stable. The consumer discretionary and information technology sectors performed notably well [2]. Investor Sentiment - Trading volume in European and American stock markets increased significantly, while the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks reached a historical low. The Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 saw a decrease in trading volume, while the S&P 500, European Stoxx 50, and Korea's Kospi 200 experienced an increase. Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved and is at a historically high level, while sentiment in the U.S. decreased but remains high. Volatility decreased in Hong Kong and Japanese stocks, while it increased in U.S. and European stocks. Overall valuations in developed and emerging markets improved compared to the previous week [2]. Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks were revised upward, while U.S. tech earnings expectations continued to be revised upward. Specifically, the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was adjusted from 2066 to 2068. The EPS forecast for the S&P 500 remained unchanged at 269, and the EPS forecast for the Eurozone STOXX 50 also remained unchanged at 337 [3]. Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Europe and the U.S. improved last week. The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index rose, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and accelerated AI infrastructure investments by tech giants. The European Economic Surprise Index also increased, likely due to low core inflation and a rebound in industrial production. Conversely, the Economic Surprise Index in China declined, possibly due to U.S.-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected economic data for August [3]. Capital Flows - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the market is speculating on the future path of rate cuts. As of September 19, futures market implied rates indicate that the market expects approximately 1.8 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Last week, U.S. dollar liquidity shifted towards a looser stance. In terms of global micro liquidity, funds primarily flowed into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea. Additionally, there was a net inflow of capital into Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect program [3].

Market Performance - Global markets experienced a slight increase last week, with MSCI Global up by 1.0%, MSCI Developed Markets up by 1.0%, and MSCI Emerging Markets up by 1.1% [8][9] - Among developed markets, the Nasdaq Index showed the strongest performance with a rise of 2.2%, while the Australian S&P 200 was the weakest, declining by 1.0% [8][9] - In the emerging markets, the ChiNext Index performed best with a gain of 2.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3% [8][9] Trading Sentiment - Trading volume in European and American stock markets significantly increased, while the short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks dropped to a historical low of 11.8% [17][21] - The Hang Seng Index's trading volume decreased to 177 billion shares with a total turnover of 918 billion USD, while the S&P 500's trading volume increased to 62 billion shares with a turnover of 82,150 billion USD [17] - Investor sentiment in Hong Kong improved, reaching historical highs, while sentiment in the US declined but remained elevated [17] Earnings Expectations - Earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks were revised upward, with the Hang Seng Index's 2025 EPS forecast increased from 2066 to 2068 [59][60] - In contrast, the S&P 500's earnings expectations remained flat at 269, while the Eurozone STOXX50's earnings expectations also held steady at 337 [59][60] - Sector-wise, the energy sector in Hong Kong saw the largest upward revision in earnings expectations, while the consumer staples sector experienced the most significant downward adjustment [59][60] Economic Expectations - Economic expectations in Europe and the US improved, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising due to the Fed's rate cut and tech giants accelerating AI infrastructure investments [8][59] - Conversely, China's Economic Surprise Index declined, impacted by US-China trade negotiations and weaker-than-expected economic data for August [8] Fund Flows - Following the Fed's rate cut, market speculation regarding future rate cuts intensified, with futures markets indicating an expectation of 1.8 rate cuts by the end of the year [46][52] - Global liquidity trends showed significant inflows into India, Europe, Hong Kong, and South Korea, with Hong Kong experiencing a net inflow of 292 billion HKD last week [53][58] - The inflow included 145 billion HKD from stable foreign capital, while flexible foreign capital saw an outflow of 130 billion HKD [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][10][29] Core Views - The humanoid robot sector is in its early stages, with significant advancements expected. Companies like Figure and Tesla are leading the way, and there are long-term investment opportunities in this space [2][18] - Microsoft is set to invest $30 billion in AI infrastructure in the UK, indicating strong demand for AI-driven cloud infrastructure [3][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying key suppliers and companies with strong market positions in the humanoid robot and AI infrastructure sectors [2][8] Summary by Sections Key Events - Figure completed a $1 billion Series C funding round, achieving a post-money valuation of $39 billion [1][18] - Microsoft announced a $30 billion investment in AI infrastructure in the UK, reflecting ongoing high demand for AI capabilities [3][19] Industry Dynamics - The humanoid robot sector is seeing rapid advancements, with various companies making significant progress in technology and applications [4][5] - Governments and tech giants are expected to maintain high levels of investment in AI infrastructure over the coming years [3][5] Company Dynamics - Key companies to watch include Figure, Tesla, and Microsoft, with a focus on their roles in advancing humanoid robotics and AI infrastructure [2][3][4] - Notable companies mentioned for investment opportunities include 飞荣达, 龙溪股份, and 汇川技术, among others [2][8][10] Investment Insights - For humanoid robots, focus on suppliers with strong market positions and those involved in key components like joints and sensors [8][10] - In AI infrastructure, attention should be given to companies involved in AI liquid cooling, power generation, and cooling systems [8][10]

Macroeconomic Insights - The number of financing platforms in China decreased by over 60% compared to March 2023, and the scale of financial debt dropped by over 50% as of the end of June [2] - The current monetary policy stance in China is supportive, with a focus on moderately easing monetary policy to reduce overall financing costs [2] - As of the end of August, various long-term funds held approximately 21.4 trillion yuan in A-share market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The balance of inclusive loans for small and micro enterprises reached 36 trillion yuan, which is 2.3 times that of the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice for the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)," targeting an average annual growth of around 4% in the steel industry's added value [4] - The plan includes precise control of capacity and output, prohibiting new capacity additions, and enhancing the supply and price stability of raw materials like iron ore and coking coal [4] - The State Sports General Administration released guidelines to promote a high-quality development of sports for health, aiming to establish a collaborative service system by 2030 [4] Company Dynamics - OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership, with NVIDIA planning to invest up to 100 billion dollars in OpenAI [6] - BYD's Li Yunfei responded to Warren Buffett's divestment, noting that stock investment involves both buying and selling [6] - Pfizer is nearing a deal to acquire obesity drug developer Metsera for 7.3 billion dollars, with potential additional payments based on performance targets [6] - Longchuan Technology reported a net profit of 827 million to 877 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 131% to 145% [12]

看似特朗普的财政部部长贝森特看美联储不顺眼？但实际上，两个掌握着经济命脉的部门，真到事上，还是"亲密无间"。 就是在这样向好的预期之下，美联储降息了25个基点，对于降息的原因解释说得也比较明白，主要是因为就业比原本预期的要差。 按照美联储的解释，这个差不只是说移民导致的供给减少，而是岗位需求减少更快，导致失业率是缓慢上升的，虽然目前的失业率还是在健康状态，但是 要提前预防式降息，来刺激企业岗位需求，防止就业进一步恶化。 所以核心两点：经济没问题情况下的预防式降息。 但更有意思的是，在FOMC的经济预测更新上，FOMC委员们调高了近三年的经济增长预期、2026的通胀预期，但调低了政策利率和失业率。 也就是说，2025年除了GDP更好之外，其他不变；2026年开始通胀稍微抬头，但GDP增长预期和失业率预期都是在转好的。 | 2025/9/17 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 长期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | | PCE | 3.0% | 2. ...

9月19日，上交所上市审核委员会定于9月26日审议摩尔线程首发事项。 今年6月30日，摩尔线程IPO申请在获上交所受理。随后，上交所进行了两轮问询，9月5日和9月18日， 摩尔线程针对两轮问询进行了回复。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 为了解决这一问题，公司高管向部分股东透露，未来五年内，OpenAI计划在租用云服务商的备用服务 器上花费约1000亿美元。这是此前预计到2030年间为租用服务器所支出的3500亿美元之外的额外开支。 综合来看，民生证券认为，当前AI基建海外关注点已从云厂商开支侧向AIDC云计算中心侧扩散，具备 GPU卡先发优势厂商如Oracle、Coreweave、Nebius、AppliedGigital、Iris Energy等。回顾国内，当下AI 叙事逻辑仍不变，重点聚焦AI基建侧。 公司方面，据上市公司互动平台表示， 东华软件：公司与摩尔线程等的合作正深入推进，具体围绕软件适配、市场推广两大核心方向展开，同 时同步推进技术、市场、服务三方面协同。 圣元环保：公司通过认购中原前海股权投资基金的基金份额3亿元人民币间接参与了摩尔线程的投资， 该基金投资摩尔线程金额为人民币2 ...