Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, dropping from nearly 95% to around 50%, influenced by the U.S. government shutdown and inflation concerns stemming from tariff policies [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation with the September CPI rising to 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target [2]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed similar views, indicating she would oppose a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [2]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized maintaining stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks to price stability over labor market signals [3]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are noticeable divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members advocating for caution and others supporting rate cuts, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [3][4]. - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concerns about the risks of premature rate cuts in light of persistent inflation and the impact of the government shutdown on data availability [4]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate in the current uncertain environment [4]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut dropped to 44%, reflecting the Fed's internal divisions and the diminishing likelihood of a rate cut in December [5]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, aligning with the cautious sentiment expressed by several Fed officials [6].

Global Asset Price Performance - Gold prices have rebounded, while global stock markets showed mixed results this week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index fell by 0.5% [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets generally rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining flat compared to last week [2] - Commodity prices saw a decline in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.2% and 0.6%, respectively, while London gold prices increased by 2.1% [2] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.3% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve officials are leaning towards pausing interest rate cuts in December, citing concerns that further cuts could exacerbate inflation pressures [5] - European Central Bank officials indicated that inflation risks in the Eurozone are skewed to the upside due to increased government spending on military and infrastructure as the economy accelerates [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. government has reopened after a 43-day shutdown, with key economic data set to be released soon. However, some data from October may be permanently lost, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making for December [9] - The NFIB small business optimism index fell to 98.2, the lowest in six months, indicating challenges in sales and profit margins, as well as difficulties in finding qualified employees [9] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index dropped to -7.4, reflecting a pessimistic outlook on the economy and concerns over high fiscal debt limiting policy options [18] - The UK's unemployment rate rose to 5% in September, leading to increased pressure on the government and the Bank of England to consider tax cuts and interest rate reductions [18]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has fluctuated significantly, influenced by government shutdowns and inflation concerns, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance on Rate Cuts - Kansas City Fed President George Schmidt reiterated opposition to rate cuts, citing persistent high inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, well above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan expressed skepticism about supporting a rate cut unless there is convincing evidence of a faster-than-expected decline in inflation or significant labor market deterioration [3][5]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasized the need for stable monetary policy until clear evidence shows inflation nearing the 2% target, highlighting the risks of prioritizing inflation stability over employment [5]. Group 2: Diverging Opinions within the FOMC - There are currently four members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) leaning towards a wait-and-see approach, with concerns about the current interest rate being closer to neutral rather than overly tight [6]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed unease about a potential rate cut due to the lack of official data caused by the government shutdown, warning against premature easing in the face of persistent inflation [6]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the threshold for additional easing is high due to ongoing inflation concerns, suggesting that maintaining current rates may be appropriate given the uncertainty [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped to 44%, indicating a diminishing likelihood of further easing unless significant economic changes occur [7]. - Analysts from Bank of America and Nomura predict that the Fed will likely hold rates steady in December, reflecting the internal divisions and inflationary pressures [8].

2025.11. 15 本文字数：2393，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 樊志菁 本月以来，有关美联储12月降息概率的走势图上演"过山车"，从一度接近板上钉钉的95%回落到 50%上下。美国联邦政府停摆让美联储的经济现状评估陷入困境，在暂时没有更多迹象证明就业市 场风险和经济降温的背景下，特朗普政府关税政策背后的通胀隐忧使得货币政策的进一步宽松前景越 发不明朗，并已经引发了全球资本市场的动荡。 "鹰王"施密德重申反对降息 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周五表示，通胀仍居高不下，警告额外的降息可能会加剧物价压力。 美国劳工统计局上月末报告显示，9月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比涨幅升至3%，远高于美联储2% 的通胀目标。施密德在演讲稿中称："在我看来，鉴于通胀仍处于过高水平，货币政策应抑制需求增 长，为供给扩张创造空间，从而缓解经济中的物价压力。" 施密德认为，（降息）可能会对通胀产生更持久的影响，因为人们会越来越质疑我们对2%通胀目标 的承诺。这正是其在上次会议上反对降息的理由，也将继续影响12月会议做准备时的思路。 政策前景如何 距离今年12月议息会议还有不到一个月的时间，美联储内部的分歧立场似乎比当时更 ...

Group 1: Long-term Fund Positioning - In Q3 2025, long-term funds such as insurance funds and state-owned capital increased their positions in low-yield, high-dividend assets like banks and airlines due to asset crowding considerations [1] - There is a renewed focus on technology assets among long-term funds, with insurance funds showing less interest in high-performing sectors like telecommunications and media, while social security funds are more engaged with the AI industry chain, investing in both hardware and software [1] Group 2: A-share Market Strategy - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with manufacturing and cyclical stocks leading the gains, while technology stocks continued to adjust [3] - Historically, the third phase of an upward market is often driven by earnings, indicating a potential shift from a liquidity-driven market to a fundamentals-driven one [3] - Key indicators of economic improvement are found in the AI chain, price increases, capital goods, and consumer goods, suggesting a "barbell" investment strategy with opportunities in relatively low-positioned sectors like electric new energy and chemicals [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy in the short term, with no further interest rate cuts anticipated before the end of next year [4] - The central bank will focus on structural policy tools to lower financing costs for the real economy and improve the transmission mechanism of policies [5]

【环球网财经综合报道】中国人民银行宣布，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，将于11月17日开展8000亿元6个月期买断式逆 回购操作。由于本月有3000亿元同期逆回购到期，此举将实现净投放5000亿元。这是央行连续第六个月加量续做买断式 逆回购，凸显了其维护流动性合理充裕、支持实体经济的坚定决心。 中信证券首席经济学家明明的分析则提供了另一视角，他认为11月份有9000亿元MLF到期，买断式逆回购的净投放增 加，也可能是为了缓解MLF的续做压力，体现了央行在多种货币政策工具间的灵活搭配与精准调控。 展望未来，央行的货币政策立场清晰明确。《报告》在下一阶段主要思路中强调，将实施好适度宽松的货币政策，根据 经济金融形势的变化，做好跨周期和逆周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。市场普遍预计，央行本月将对到期的 9000亿元MLF进行小幅加量续作，并继续综合运用买断式逆回购和MLF等工具，确保流动性合理充裕。 本次操作后，结合月初对7000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购的等量续做，11月份央行通过买断式逆回购工具已合计净投放 5000亿元，规模较10月份增加1000亿元。这一系列精准操作，有效对冲了多重因素对银行体系流动性的影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank is maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system, with significant reverse repo operations planned for November [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On November 17, the central bank will conduct a 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation with a six-month term to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [2]. - In November, the total net injection from reverse repos is expected to reach 500 billion yuan, marking the highest monthly net injection since February [3]. - The central bank has restarted open market operations for government bonds, which is another method to inject liquidity into the market [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The central bank's actions are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment, supporting government bond issuance, and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the central bank may consider a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut before the end of the year to further lower funding costs for banks and stabilize social financing costs [4]. - The current monetary policy remains flexible, but there are concerns about the diminishing marginal effectiveness of overly loose monetary conditions, which could lead to negative effects such as fund idling [4].

本月以来，有关美联储12月降息概率的走势图上演"过山车"，从一度接近板上钉钉的95%回落到50%上 下。美国联邦政府停摆让美联储的经济现状评估陷入困境，在暂时没有更多迹象证明就业市场风险和经 济降温的背景下，特朗普政府关税政策背后的通胀隐忧使得货币政策的进一步宽松前景越发不明朗，并 已经引发了全球资本市场的动荡。 "鹰王"施密德重申反对降息 堪萨斯城联储主席施密德周五表示，通胀仍居高不下，警告额外的降息可能会加剧物价压力。 政策前景如何 距离今年12月议息会议还有不到一个月的时间，美联储内部的分歧立场似乎比当时更加明显，对进一步 宽松持反对、观望和赞成的各方观点让货币政策的走向变得扑朔迷离，但天平似乎正在朝着按兵不动的 方向倾斜。 本周多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论。亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，在有 "明确证据"表明通胀正接 近美联储2%目标之前，美联储应维持货币政策稳定。博斯蒂克称，在评估美联储 "物价稳定"与 "强劲 就业市场"双重使命所面临的风险时，更清晰、更紧迫的风险仍在于物价稳定。"我认为劳动力市场释放 的信号模糊且难以解读。与持续通胀压力这一更为直接的风险相比，这些信号尚不足以证明有必要采取 激进的 ...

美联储内部一部分决策者近日加大了对通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的警告力度，使得12月再次降息的前 景蒙上阴影，也暴露出美联储内部日益加深的分歧。 美联储官员们普遍认同劳动力市场已经降温，但对于放缓是否会进一步加剧看法不一。而且，尽管有一 部分人对物价压力持乐观态度，另一些人则警告称，目前的利率水平对经济的抑制作用微弱，进一步降 息可能让通胀回到目标的进程面临风险。 媒体分析指出，美联储官员们的这种公开争论并不常见。它反映出当前美国经济形势难以判断，也凸显 出美联储主席鲍威尔所面临的困境——如何就货币政策方向凝聚共识。 有前美联储官员指出，美联储当前面临一项艰难的决策，每个人都希望明确表达自己的立场，因此会站 出来发声、阐述理由。对于整个委员会和鲍威尔来说，要在这种局面下达成共识确实非常具有挑战性。 在过去两次会议成功争取到降息支持后，鲍威尔也承认，再降一次息并非板上钉钉。促使他作出此番警 告的分歧，近期已公开化，一些官员明确表示，他们不会在12月9–10日的会议上支持降息。 其中包括今年拥有投票权的多个地区联储主席，如堪萨斯城联储主席施密德以及波士顿联储主席柯林 斯，以及明年拥有投票权的达拉斯联储主席洛根。 鹰派 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers have intensified warnings about the potential slowdown or stagnation of inflation progress, raising questions about the possibility of further actions in December [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Officials generally believe that the labor market has cooled down, but there are divisions in predictions regarding whether this slowdown will intensify [1] - Some officials maintain an optimistic view on price pressures, while others caution that the current interest rate levels are insufficient to restrain the economy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Challenges - The ongoing public debate among Federal Reserve officials is unusual and reflects the difficulty in interpreting the current economic situation [1] - Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, faces challenges in achieving consensus on the direction of monetary policy [1]