美联储主席鲍威尔：绝大多数美联储委员预计今年晚些时候会降息。我们看到劳动力市场正逐步降温。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Korea, Lee Chang-yong, emphasized that the decision on whether to further lower interest rates will be closely monitored in relation to financial stability risks [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Korea is currently assessing the potential need for additional interest rate cuts [1] - Financial stability risks are a primary concern influencing the decision-making process regarding interest rates [1]

印尼央行行长：有空间进一步降息。 ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight pullback to $107,000, with a total of 83,845 liquidations globally amounting to $211 million [1] - The market has been extremely sluggish since Saturday, with trading activity dropping significantly, resembling a lack of motivation due to the hot weather [1] - Major players are taking advantage of low liquidity to create FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among investors, indicating a potential accumulation phase for them [1] Key Developments - Federal Reserve's Bostic predicts one rate cut this year and three next year, suggesting no need for rate hikes to combat inflation; Goldman Sachs forecasts a rate cut in September [2] - MicroStrategy purchased 4,980 BTC at an average price of $106,801, totaling $531.9 million, and holds 597,325 BTC at an average price of $70,982, valued at $42.4 billion [2] - On-chain activity remains subdued, with some altcoins like $ARB showing strong performance before news releases, followed by sell-offs [2] Bitcoin Analysis - BTC tested the $109,000 liquidation zone twice without triggering significant liquidations, indicating a potential struggle for buyers in the futures market while sellers dominate the spot market [3] - Current price levels around $105,000 to $106,000 are critical for long positions, with a potential drop to $105,000 or even $103,000 if the $106,000 support is breached [3] Strategy Insights - Short-term trading strategies suggest a focus on buying in the $105,668 to $104,688 range and waiting for short positions in the $107,713 to $108,313 range, with stop losses set at $1,500 [5] - For Ethereum (ETH), recent price movements indicate uncertainty, as two recent breakouts did not surpass previous highs, and trading volume remains insufficient to confirm a strong upward trend [6] Altcoin Market - The launch of tokenized stock trading is expected to impact "MEME coins," with significant interest from financial players in the Web3 space [7] - The current market is awaiting a clear catalyst, such as interest rate cuts or institutional entry, to potentially ignite a bullish trend [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The market is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with officials indicating a cautious approach to potential rate cuts in July, with a probability of less than 20% [1] - Most expectations lean towards a rate cut in September or later, with a slight probability of over 50% for a September cut [1] - Labor market shows signs of slowing but remains strong, supporting the Fed's wait-and-see approach [1] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market - Grayscale's ETH sell-off has been accounted for, but buying power remains, indicating a net inflow, although the amount is low, reflecting limited interest from traditional investors [4] - ETH has outperformed BTC in terms of net inflow, with ETH's inflow increasing by 8 times compared to BTC's 2 times [4] - BTC has not experienced large-scale liquidations recently, suggesting a potential for 20% volatility, typically indicating a trend [5] - BTC closed above 107,000, with a short-term upward wedge pattern indicating potential support [5] - ETH's holdings by U.S. ETF investors have surpassed 4 million, marking a historical high [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current market sentiment shows a divergence, with skepticism towards BTC's future while maintaining optimism for altcoins [8] - Strategies suggest a dual approach of long and short positions, especially in a volatile market [9] - Recent projects in the primary market have shown promising performance, contrasting with the sluggish secondary market [9]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed higher on June 30, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new all-time closing highs [1] - For the first half of the year, the Nasdaq rose by 5.48%, the Dow Jones increased by 3.64%, and the S&P 500 gained 5.5% [1] - On June 30, the Dow Jones rose by 0.63% to 44094.77 points, the Nasdaq increased by 0.47% to 20369.73 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.52% to 6204.95 points [1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased, with spot gold rising by 0.88% to $3302.155 per ounce, and gold futures up by 0.83% to $3315.0 per ounce [5] - Oil prices fell, with Morgan Stanley predicting that Brent crude oil prices may drop to around $60 per barrel by early next year [1][6] Technology Sector - The US technology giants index saw a slight increase of 0.06%, with Apple rising by 2.03%, Meta by 0.61%, and Microsoft by 0.30% [3] - However, Tesla fell by 1.84%, Amazon by 1.75%, and Alphabet by 0.49% [3] Geopolitical and Regulatory Developments - The easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the potential for OPEC+ to increase production in August have improved oil supply expectations [6] - The European Commission emphasized that the EU's digital market and service laws are not part of trade negotiations with the US [6] Economic Policy and Interest Rates - Former President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, suggesting that the US could save trillions in interest costs [7][8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley believe the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near future remains low, despite market expectations increasing for potential cuts in July and September [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Trump's tariffs and trade tensions remain a significant risk for Asia [1] - Vietnam is identified as the most vulnerable country due to its heavy reliance on final demand from the United States [1] - The report anticipates a slight slowdown in GDP growth across most of Asia this year [1] Group 2 - In the context of weak economic growth and low inflation rates, further interest rate cuts are likely in many parts of Asia in the coming months [1]

贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

新西兰银行现预计新西兰联储将在7月份暂停降息。 ...