美国供应管理协会（ISM）最新公布的服务业PMI（采购经理指数）出乎意料上升，从3月时的九个月 低位50.8点，上升至4月份的51.6点，远超市场预期的50.6点。该指数读数在50点以上，反映经济活动扩 张，反之则意味着经济活动收缩。 4月份的服务业PMI达到51.6点的水平，着实让市场喜出望外，美股三大指数原本低开低走，在公布服 务业PMI后反弹，但是回味过后，投资者的忧虑并没有消散，美股收盘前续跌。以反映科技股表现的纳 斯达克指数（IXIC.US）为例，低开后持续上下波动，午后公布服务业PMI后一度走高，但是尾盘急速 走低，收盘跌133.49点，或0.74%，报17,844.24点。 这项数据有何问题？ 本周中后期美联储议息，市场普遍预期将维持利率不变，这或也是关税阴霾下，市场对于美联储最后一 次把握比较大的预测，即便如此，利率仍走高，反映资金需要更高的风险收益补偿。 美元指数再跌破100 从服务业PMI的细分领域来看，新订单和存货指数均表现良好，分别达到52.3点和53.4点，显示出增长 加快的信号，同时商业活动仍处于扩张区间，为53.7点。但值得注意的是，服务业就业继续处于收缩水 平，报49点，而价格 ...

Market Overview - The fluctuation of the US dollar index has a significant impact on gold prices, as gold is priced in dollars. The current dollar index trend has led to cautious investor sentiment towards gold, resulting in narrow price fluctuations [2] - Global economic data expectations also influence the gold market. Uncertainty regarding economic outlook leads to investor hesitation, affecting gold demand and causing a lack of clear upward or downward momentum in gold prices [2] - The direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains a key variable for the gold market. Divergence exists in market expectations regarding future interest rate decisions, leading to cautious investor behavior ahead of the May 8 Federal Reserve rate decision [2] Technical Analysis - Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3239.46 per ounce, experienced a strong intraday rise, reaching a high of $3337.46, and closed at $3333.96, indicating a bullish market trend [5] - On the daily chart, the closing price is significantly above the 20-day moving average, suggesting strong bullish momentum and opportunities for long positions [5] - The hourly chart indicates a departure from the bottom consolidation range, with a strong upward trend along the 20-day moving average, suggesting further upward potential [6] Technical Analysis - Silver - The silver price opened at $32.002, showing wide fluctuations and reaching a high of $32.669, closing at $32.473, indicating a bullish trend [8] - The closing price is back above the 20-day moving average, reinforcing a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart shows silver returning to the high point of the consolidation range, with a need to observe if it can effectively break through the previous resistance level [8]

Group 1 - The recent surge in spot gold prices has seen it break through the $3,360 per ounce mark, with a slight pullback following the peak, indicating strong market interest in gold as an investment [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including a cooling of interest rate hike expectations in the U.S., a weakening U.S. dollar, and central banks globally accumulating gold as a safety net, which affects supply and demand dynamics positively [3] - The current market sentiment is volatile, and while short-term gains are evident, a cautious approach is advised for long-term investors, suggesting to wait for potential price corrections before making new investments [3] Group 2 - The commentary emphasizes the importance of a long-term investment strategy, likening it to a marathon rather than a sprint, and encourages investors to focus on understanding market fundamentals rather than chasing short-term trends [3] - Future monitoring of global inflation data and geopolitical situations is recommended as these factors are considered significant variables that could impact gold prices [3]

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of April 30, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.20, down 0.09% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.09, down 0.16%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 90.44, down 0.03% [1][2] RMB Performance - On April 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.2633 against the USD, appreciating by 199 basis points or 0.27% for the week; the offshore RMB closed at 7.2113, appreciating by 776 basis points or 1.06% for the week [5] - The appreciation of the RMB reflects increased market demand and the impact of USD index fluctuations, as the weakening US economic recovery reduces the dollar's attractiveness [5] Economic Indicators - In April, the onshore RMB depreciated approximately 0.2%, while the CFETS index fell about 2.8%, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 0.32% [5] - The RMB's future performance is expected to be influenced by the direction of the USD index and trade policies, with a moderate strengthening outlook [6] Trade Relations - Recent responses from the Ministry of Commerce regarding Sino-US trade dialogue suggest a softening stance from the US on tariffs, which has contributed to the recent strength of the offshore RMB [6] - The upcoming RMB exchange rate movements will depend on the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the USD's performance, with potential for volatility [6] Consumer Market Trends - During the "May Day" holiday, key retail and catering enterprises reported a 6.3% year-on-year increase in sales, with significant growth in sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment [7] - The transportation sector saw a cumulative flow of 1.467 billion people during the holiday period, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [7] Automotive Industry - New energy vehicle manufacturers reported significant growth in April deliveries, with NIO delivering 23,900 vehicles (up 53%), XPeng 35,045 vehicles (up 273%), and Li Auto 33,939 vehicles (up 31.6%) [9] Economic Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, including the establishment of a childcare subsidy system and support for service consumption and the elderly care industry [8]

转自：新华财经 虽然特朗普表示他不寻求解除美联储主席鲍威尔的职务，但再次呼吁鲍威尔降息。 美国供应管理学会当日上午发布的数据显示，美国4月份服务业景气指数为51.6，高于市场预期的50.2和 3月份的50.8。这一数据公布后，美元跌幅收窄。 芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）在5日下午4:17分公布的数据显示，美联储到2025 年6月份议息会议时把联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%不变的概率从一周前的35.1%升至 70.2%，对美联储在6月份降息的预期显著回落。 美联储将于6-7日举行例行货币政策会议，市场认为美联储维持利率不变的概率高达97.3%。 新华财经纽约5月5日电（记者刘亚南）由于美国关税政策继续引发市场担忧，5日美元兑欧元、英镑、 日元和瑞士法郎走低，美元兑加元和瑞典克朗走高，美元指数在隔夜市场走低，当日上午跌幅收窄，随 后弱势盘整，尾盘时美元指数下跌。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.2%，在汇市尾市收于99.828。 外汇经纪商Monex美国公司交易业务负责人胡安•佩雷兹（Juan Perez）表示，美国总统特朗普维持其认 为关税重要的看法正 ...

智通财经5月6日电，美元指数向上触及100关口，日内涨0.2%。 ...

美元指数DXY向上触及100关口，日内涨0.21%。 ...

金十数据5月6日讯，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.2%，在汇市尾市收于99.828。截至 纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1313美元，高于前一交易日的1.1300美元；1英镑兑换1.3289美元，高于前 一交易日的1.3274美元。1美元兑换143.92日元，低于前一交易日的145.03日元；1美元兑换0.8229瑞士法 郎，低于前一交易日的0.8271瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3815加元，高于前一交易日的1.3813加元；1美元 兑换9.6720瑞典克朗，高于前一交易日的9.6584瑞典克朗。 美元指数5日下跌 ...

智通财经5月5日电，美元指数DXY日内跌幅达0.50%，现报99.52。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance against the USD, with significant appreciation driven by a softening stance from the US on tariff issues and positive economic indicators from China [1][4][6]. Exchange Rate Performance - On May 5, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate rose above 7.19, reaching a high of 7.189, marking the first time since November 2024 that it surpassed this level [1][3]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9% against the USD [1][6]. - As of May 5, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.2036, with a daily increase of 0.11% [3]. Economic Indicators - In Q1, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with imports and exports totaling 10.3 trillion RMB, a 1.3% increase [6]. - The positive economic data has provided strong support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. Policy and Market Sentiment - Analysts attribute the recent strength of the offshore RMB to expectations of a more dovish US Federal Reserve and signals of easing tensions in the US-China trade war [4][8]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate and managing market expectations effectively [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the onshore RMB may experience a rebound following the "May Day" holiday, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the USD's performance [8]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation against the USD, with potential for smaller amplitude movements [8].