Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recommend shorting zinc as the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the "rush to export" and the tariff implementation, and the supply from the mining end is increasing in the second quarter. There is a possibility that the weak demand will be transmitted upstream, exacerbating the surplus of zinc and pushing the Shanghai zinc price below 21,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Short copper above 79,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at this price, as there is strong resistance at the previous downward gap and the consumption is weakening [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The US premium accelerates the outflow of LME copper inventory, raising the spot premium. The market is trading on the expectation of the US raising metal tariffs. The Sino - US manufacturing PMI is mostly in the contraction range, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June. The market is waiting for the US inflation data [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: The import ore TC is below $40 and may not decline further. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may stabilize at 1,200 yuan due to weakening consumption. The domestic refined copper output is expected to increase. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed, and the social inventory is oscillating at 149,500 tons. The domestic consumption is weakening, and the refinery's export is expected to increase [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Peru's copper output is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year. The KK copper mine in Congo - Kinshasa may resume production at the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the LME visible inventory and the US copper price [1]. - **Trend**: Short - position holders should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss above 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased after the profit repair, with the operating capacity increasing by 1.35 million tons to 90.65 million tons last week. The inventory has decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.133 million tons. The spot market has few transactions, and the ex - factory price in the northwest has dropped to 3,200 yuan. The alumina market has an over - supply situation. Consider shorting on rallies in the futures market. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, and the downside of alumina is limited [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is around 4.3 million tons, with no expected reduction in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of related enterprises has increased by 17 percentage points to 60.9%. The demand for aluminum plates and strips has weakened, and the operating rate of some enterprises has decreased. The aluminum cable sector's enthusiasm for procurement and production has declined. The operating rate of the aluminum profile sector is divided, with the construction and photovoltaic sectors weak, while the 3C and power sectors have some support [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 42,000 tons to 477,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods has increased by 2,000 tons to 180,000 tons. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The spot premium in East China has narrowed by 40 yuan to 70 yuan, the premium in Central China has narrowed by 50 yuan to 10 yuan, and the discount in South China has widened by 20 yuan to 60 yuan. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods has slightly decreased to below 300 yuan [1]. - **Trend**: The market risk preference is improving, but the center of the Shanghai aluminum price has slightly declined. The aluminum market is in a de - stocking phase, but the demand may face challenges. The Shanghai aluminum price faces resistance at 20,300 yuan. Consider short - selling on rallies [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The Shanghai zinc price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and the technical pattern is at the end of a triangle. The zinc spot import window is closed [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The overseas zinc ore output is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain high. The smelter's raw material inventory is at a high level of 27.72 days. The CZSPT group's import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for the third quarter is in the range of $80 - 100 per dry ton. The smelters are resuming production after maintenance, and the refined zinc output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to over 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased by 4,300 tons to 81,700 tons, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased to 137,000 tons, with a deep discount of $35.6 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months, indicating weak overseas demand. The import window may open briefly in June if the US dollar index weakens [1]. - **Consumption**: The "rush to export" is ending, and the consumption expectation is under pressure. The domestic special bonds are being issued faster than expected, but the infrastructure projects' physical demand will be realized after the rainy season. The photovoltaic installation peak has ended, and the "trade - in" policy has over - drawn the demand. Both domestic and overseas demand are under pressure in June [1]. - **Trend**: In June, the supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling with increasing positions. Hold short positions established at previous high levels [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The lead price has been in a narrow - range fluctuation due to insufficient demand and the inverted refined - scrap price [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The SMM lead social inventory has increased to 53,400 tons, and the SMM 1 lead average price has a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 236,300 tons, with a discount of $26.98 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months. Some recycled lead smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections and losses. The primary lead smelters' production increase space is limited due to raw material shortages. The supply of waste batteries is in short supply, and the import loss of lead ingots is still over 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' operating rate has recovered after the holiday, but the overall consumption is still weak. Lead - acid battery enterprises are willing to buy at low prices. The automobile battery brands are promoting sales, and there are rumors of price increases for electric bicycle batteries. The dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is supported by cost and pressured by consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price has rebounded, and the trading volume is light. The Shanghai stainless steel price is slightly weaker, and the closing price is at 12,705 yuan, with stable positions [1]. - **Macro and demand**: Geopolitical and tariff - related changes have led to an improvement in risk preference, reducing the short - and medium - term concerns about demand decline. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 7,100 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines has been delayed due to rain. The price of high - grade nickel ore is at 953 yuan per nickel point. The nickel ore inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons [1]. - **Conclusion and strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short as the Shanghai nickel price rebounds [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The tin price has rebounded significantly, with the LME tin price rising by more than 6.7%. The Shanghai tin weighted price has returned above 262,000 yuan after recovering the annual line. The market is focusing on the tight supply of tin concentrate in China [1]. - **Supply**: A smelter in Wa State may not be able to produce large quantities in the short term, and the inventory is low. The supply in southern Myanmar may be affected by environmental protection, and the domestic tin concentrate supply is expected to be tight for a longer time. The domestic refined tin output in May decreased by 0.3% to 14,670 tons and is expected to further decrease to 13,800 tons in June. The supply of recycled tin in Jiangxi is also restricted by raw materials [1]. - **Consumption**: The SMM tin social inventory has decreased by 216 tons to 8,856 tons. The consumption is weakening, and the orders of photovoltaic and electronic enterprises have decreased. The LME tin inventory has decreased to 2,440 tons, with a spot premium of $50 for 0 - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: The tin price is expected to continue to oscillate to balance the domestic supply and demand situation. Pay attention to the overseas consumption. Consider reducing some short positions or moving to far - month contracts when the Shanghai tin price rebounds close to the previous high of 265,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate futures price has been oscillating at a low level, and the price has been fluctuating around 60,000 yuan. The trading volume is active, and the positions have decreased by 8,000 lots to 566,000 lots [1]. - **Spot performance**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 60,300 yuan, with a weekly stable price. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 1,600 yuan. Some non - integrated lithium salt plants have increased their operating rates after hedging [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The material factories are generally producing actively. The energy - storage orders have recovered, but the power orders have slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has increased [1]. - **Supply factors**: The total market inventory has increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory has increased to 57,000 tons, and the intermediate inventory has increased by 500 tons. The Australian ore price is $607.5 [1]. - **Trend**: The downward trend of the lithium carbonate futures price has slowed down. Consider participating in short - term rebound trading [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded from a low level of 7,000 yuan/ton to above 7,400 yuan/ton due to oversold technical indicators [1]. - **Spot**: The SMM Huayangtong 553 silicon liquid average price is 8,150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [1]. - **Supply**: A large factory in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the operating rate in other regions has changed slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The SMM social inventory is 587,000 tons, with a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The ordinary inventory is 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the delivery inventory is 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The price of polysilicon N - type is stable. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In the organic silicon field, the DMC inventory has decreased by nearly 30% in May, and the DMC production in June is expected to be 205,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [1]. - **Summary**: In June, the industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory pressure. The price may rebound in the short term due to technical factors, but the downward trend remains. Pay attention to the MA20 resistance level [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price's oscillation center has moved down, and the main contract is near the key level of 34,000 yuan/ton. The spot price is stable, with the large - factory dense re - feed material priced at 36,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Sichuan has entered the wet season, and leading enterprises plan to replace production capacity. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. The factory inventory is 269,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: After the 531 policy node, the distributed orders have decreased, and the centralized projects are on hold. The component enterprises have raised the price, but the transactions are insufficient. The silicon wafer price is stable, and the production in June is expected to decrease by about 2GW [1]. - **Summary**: The component demand has decreased, while the polysilicon production is increasing. The inventory pressure is slightly rising, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline [1].

白银周一（6.9）最高试探36.88元/盎司，最低触及35.81美元/盎司。收盘于36.75美元/盎司。周二（6.10）开于36.74美元/盎司，截至目前最高上探至36.82元/ 盎司，最低试探至36.29，早间白银高位横盘，现报36.5美元/盎司附近. 1， 纽约联储调查显示通胀预期下降 纽约联储在最新调查中发现，消费者预计对未来一年的通胀预期低于一个月前。 5月份的消费者预期调查显示1年通胀预期为3.2%，较一个月前下降0.4个百 分点。三年通胀预期从4月份的3.2%降至3%。五年通胀预期从2.7%降至2.6%。此前，特朗普政府取消了4月初实施的部分高额关税。与此同时，美国截至今 年4月的CPI进一步降至2.3%。 2， 4月美国批发库存增加 3， 受关税影响，美国就业趋势指数下降 美国谘商会5月就业趋势指数（ETI）进一步下滑，从108.00降至107.49。"与2025年初相比，5月份ETI继续放缓。但尽管普遍对关税持谨慎态度，ETI目前仍 高于2017-19年的平均水平，这表明劳动力市场总体上仍处于稳固的基础上。"谘商会注意到硬数据和软数据之间的差异继续存在，"尽管不确定性可能会打 压企业和消费者信 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold maintains an intraday oscillatory pattern, while silver oscillates in the range of 8,900 - 8,930 yuan/kg after opening lower. The gold market absorbs the decline in inflation expectations and the anticipation of China - US negotiations. A positive outcome from the negotiations may trigger a new round of gold price corrections [2]. - Institutional demand supports the bullish market structure. Central banks, including China, are diversifying away from the US dollar, providing long - term fundamental support for gold prices. Geopolitical tensions can rapidly drive up gold prices [2]. - The next market catalyst is the US May CPI data on June 11. Lower - than - expected CPI data may reignite expectations of interest rate cuts and push gold prices back to recent highs [2]. - In the long run, the repeated expectations of Trump's tariff policies, the persistent US debt problem, and the weakening economic data leading to interest rate cut expectations form triple pressures. The damage to the US dollar's credit may accelerate the global de - dollarization process, which is structurally beneficial to the precious metals market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 775.06 yuan/gram, up 0.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8,887 yuan/kg, down 22 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 170,163 lots, down 3,021 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 465,984 lots, down 25,402 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 130,510 lots, up 1,723 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 128,510 lots, down 5,009 lots [2]. - The gold warehouse receipt quantity is 17,817 kg, down 30 kg; the silver warehouse receipt quantity is 1,193,716 kg, up 35,390 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 768.19 yuan/gram, up 0.79 yuan; the silver spot price is 8,863 yuan/kg, up 83 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 6.87 yuan/gram, up 0.45 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 24 yuan/kg, up 105 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 936.22 tons, up 2.01 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14,656.98 tons, down 52.31 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 187,905 contracts, up 13,721 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 60,770 contracts, up 7,758 contracts [2]. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 19.47%, down 1.36%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 25.96%, down 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 22.54%, down 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 22.54%, down 0.27% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9 and will continue on June 10 [2]. - Senate Republicans plan to propose revised tax and healthcare provisions this week for Trump's $3 - trillion economic plan, ignoring Elon Musk's accusations and aiming to enact the bill before July 4 [2]. - The US Congressional Budget Office expects the US to hit the debt ceiling between mid - August and the end of September [2]. - In May, US consumers' future inflation expectations declined across the board for the first time since 2024, with the one - year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% [2]. - Citigroup postponed its forecast of US interest rate cuts from July to September and expects three rate cuts this year instead of four [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 2.01 tons to 936.22 tons, while the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 52.31 tons to 14,656.98 tons [2]. - China increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month in May, and central banks' actions provide long - term support for gold prices [2]. - The next catalyst is the US May CPI data on June 11. Lower - than - expected data may push gold prices up [2]. - Long - term factors such as Trump's tariff policies, the US debt problem, and interest rate cut expectations are beneficial to the precious metals market [2]. - The Shanghai gold 2508 contract is recommended to focus on the range of 760 - 790 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2508 contract is recommended to focus on the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/kg [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index down by 1.17% [1] - Over 4,000 stocks in the market fell, with a total trading volume of 1.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 129 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Market Dynamics - A sudden wave of selling occurred between 13:10 and 13:30, leading to a nearly uniform sell-off across various sectors, causing major indices to drop by approximately 1% [2] - During this period of panic, the number of declining stocks approached 4,800 [4] Sector Performance - Despite the overall market decline, certain sectors such as port shipping, grain (including genetically modified crops, corn, and seed industry), and rare earths showed strong performance [4] - The market's reaction may be linked to the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations, with reports indicating that discussions were taking place in London [6][8] Investment Sentiment - The market's fluctuations suggest that some investors may be taking profits ahead of the negotiations, particularly from sectors that had seen significant gains recently [8] - The future market direction will largely depend on the progress of the U.S.-China negotiations, with a focus on official reports for accurate information [8] Analyst Insights - Recent reports from Zhongtai International Securities indicate that the U.S.-China talks may reduce uncertainty in the short term, but significant differences remain on issues such as tariffs and technology export controls [10] - The report also highlights that the Hong Kong market is experiencing a rotation of funds among focus sectors, with no significant new capital inflow [10] - Analysts suggest that low-valuation, high-growth potential sectors may perform well in the near term, while defensive dividend sectors still hold value [10] Stock Market Trends - The upcoming unlocking of shares for "new consumption" stocks in Hong Kong may lead to increased volatility in stock prices, suggesting that investors should consider taking profits [11] - This perspective may also be relevant for related sectors in the A-share market [11]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-10 市场分析 国内核心CPI上涨。国内方面，国家统计局数据显示，5月份，CPI环比下降0.2%，同比下降0.1%，扣除食品和能 源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降3.3%， 降幅比上月扩大0.6个百分点。据海关统计，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值为17.94万亿元，同比增长2.5%。 其中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。海外方面，纽约联储调查数据显示，5月美国消 费者未来通胀预期全面下降，为2024年来首次，其中一年期通胀预期降幅最大，从4月的3.6%降至3.2%，三年期、 五年期通胀预期也均有下降。关注即将发布的美国通胀数据。 指数走高。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走高，上证指数涨0.43%收于3399.77点，创业板指涨1.07%。行业方面， 板块指数基本收红，医药生物、农林牧渔、纺织服饰行业领涨，仅食品饮料行业收跌。当日沪深两市成交金额增 至1.3万亿元。海外市场，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行，带动芯片股上涨，美国三大股指收盘 涨跌 ...

Domestic News - The first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism will continue [1] - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and by 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 3.3% year-on-year [1] - The Central Committee and the State Council support guiding local governments to directly distribute maternity insurance benefits to insured individuals and to reasonably increase the minimum wage standard [1] - Premier Li Qiang presided over the 14th special study session of the State Council, emphasizing the need to strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation and support qualified enterprises to lead or participate in national science and technology innovation projects [1] - The General Administration of Customs reported that in the first five months of this year, the total import and export of goods increased by 2.5% year-on-year; trade with the US decreased by 8.1% during the same period [1] International News - The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the US proposal regarding the nuclear agreement is "unacceptable," with the next round of nuclear negotiations expected to take place in Oman on Sunday [2] - Protests in Los Angeles have led California to sue the Trump administration over troop deployment, with Trump expressing a desire to avoid civil war in the US [2] Other News - Japan is considering repurchasing some ultra-long-term government bonds [3] - Japan's chief negotiator Akizawa Ryozo plans to visit the US this week [3] - Trump announced a newborn savings plan, proposing to save $1,000 for each child born [3] - The US Senate plans to introduce significant adjustments to Trump's tax reform proposal this week [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that measures to avoid reaching the debt ceiling will be exhausted between mid-August and the end of September [3] - The Canadian Prime Minister stated that Canada should no longer allocate 75% of its defense budget to the US and will diversify its defense partnerships [3]

行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。 据新华社，当地时间6月9日，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰与美方在英国伦敦开始举 ...

股指或震荡偏强，国债观 望为主 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周五沪深300股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，上证50股指主力合约期货跌0.09%，中证 500股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，中证1000股指主力合约期货跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：美国5月非农好于预期，特朗普仍呼吁降息1个百分点，指责鲍威尔让美国"损失惨重" ，并 称将很快公布下一任美联储主席人选。国务院副总理何立峰于6月8-13日访问英国，其间，与美方举行 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。中国商务部就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问：实施出口管制符合国际通 行做法，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请。中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行，股指或震荡偏强运行。 p 技术分析：K ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upcoming first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, which is set to take place in London from June 8 to June 13, 2023 [2][3] - The meeting is part of a visit by He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, who is visiting the UK at the invitation of the British government [2][3] - The Chinese side has already released information regarding the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, indicating a focus on trade relations between the two countries [2]

路透社记者提问，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议正在英国举行，中方能否介绍更多情况，对磋商有何 期待？ 外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。 "中方已经发布了中美经贸磋商机制首次会议有关消息，关于磋商的具体情况请你保持关注。"林剑 说。 ...