Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.1072, which represents a depreciation of 42 basis points compared to the previous trading day [1] - The previous day's exchange rate was 7.1030 for the yuan against the US dollar [1] Exchange Rate Summary - As of September 1, 2025, the exchange rates are as follows: - 1 USD = 7.1072 CNY - 1 EUR = 8.3129 CNY - 100 JPY = 4.8340 CNY - 1 HKD = 0.91174 CNY - 1 GBP = 9.6061 CNY - 1 AUD = 4.6542 CNY - 1 NZD = 4.1963 CNY - 1 SGD = 5.5410 CNY - 1 CHF = 8.8782 CNY - 1 CAD = 5.1774 CNY - 1 MOP = 1.1304 CNY - 1 MYR = 0.59319 CNY - 1 RUB = 11.2318 CNY - 1 ZAR = 2.4817 CNY - 1 KRW = 195.31 CNY - 1 AED = 0.51622 CNY - 1 SAR = 0.52745 CNY - 1 HUF = 47.6915 CNY - 1 PLN = 0.51259 CNY - 1 DKK = 0.8981 CNY - 1 SEK = 1.3296 CNY - 1 NOK = 1.4146 CNY - 1 TRY = 5.78058 CNY - 1 MXN = 2.6247 CNY - 1 THB = 4.5391 CNY [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Upstream prices**: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - **Exchange rate**: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - **Inflation and trade**: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - **High - frequency data changes**: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].

人民币汇率风云：不止是数字，更是生活中的"隐形钱包" "今天美元兑人民币汇率究竟是多少？"这个看似平常的问句，实则触及了我们经济生活的方方面面。 "说实话，我也不清楚。最近不是一直说汇率很稳定吗？现在究竟是多少？" "我告诉你个准确的数字：今天人民币兑美元的中间价定在7.1030元，在岸人民币（CNY）报7.1306，离岸人民币（CNH）则为7.1189。从这些数据来看，人 民币表现得相当稳健，甚至还悄然上涨了一点。" 汇率：货币世界的"价格标签" "在岸"与"离岸"，这两个词听起来有些复杂，实则容易理解。在岸人民币（CNY）指的是在中国内地银行间市场交易的人民币价格，而离岸人民币（CNH） 则是在中国内地以外的地区交易的人民币价格。 我们常常从新闻中听到"汇率"这个词，但它究竟意味着什么？简单来说，汇率就是一种货币兑换另一种货币的"价格"。例如，今日1美元可以兑换7.1030人 民币，这个7.1030便是人民币兑美元的中间价。它如同一个无形的标尺，指引着银行和市场上的交易价格在此上下波动。中间价的升降，直接影响着我们钱 包里的购买力。 汇率与你：看不见的联系 你或许会问，这与我们普通人有什么关系？答案是：关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate have drawn significant market attention, with the onshore and offshore RMB rates showing a trend towards convergence with the central parity rate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - On August 28, the onshore and offshore RMB against the USD broke through key levels of 7.15, 7.14, and 7.13, with the offshore rate (USDCNH) dipping below 7.12 [1]. - The central parity rate for USD to RMB on August 29 was reported at 7.1030, an increase of 33 basis points from the previous trading day, yet still 251 basis points lower than Bloomberg's forecast, indicating a signal for potential appreciation [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The narrowing gap between the central parity and actual trading rates suggests active management of exchange rate expectations, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [2]. - Following the break of 7.15 in USDCNY and USDCNH, the market anticipates a quicker convergence of the spot rate towards the central parity [2]. Group 3: Impact on Trading Strategies - The recent increase in RMB exchange rate volatility may affect "carry trade" strategies, which have been popular due to low volatility and a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points since May [2]. - The rise in volatility on August 28 may indicate a shift in the carry trade environment, posing potential risks for traders [2]. Group 4: Export and Investment Implications - While the appreciation of the RMB against the USD may attract foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets, it could also impact exports [6]. - The RMB exchange rate index, such as the CFETS index, is more reflective of the export fundamentals, showing depreciation against a basket of currencies while appreciating against the USD, which helps mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [6]. Group 5: Uncertainties and Investor Considerations - The trajectory of the RMB exchange rate remains uncertain due to factors such as unclear Federal Reserve interest rate paths, delayed effects of China's easing policies, and fluctuations in non-USD currencies like the Euro and Yen [6]. - Investors are advised to closely monitor these factors to make more informed investment decisions [6].

值得一提的是，美联储官员们还在密集释放鸽派信号，持续推升降息预期。当地时间8月28日，作为下任美联储主席热门 人选之一的美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在演讲中表态，支持9月份降息25个基点，并预计未来三个月到六个月还会进一步降 息。美国旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利日前也暗示，美联储决策者将很快宣布降息。 从内部因素来看，今年以来，我国经济平稳运行。在创新引领下，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展扎实推进，国民经济保持 稳中有进的发展态势。这对人民币汇率起到重要支撑作用。 ■刘琪 8月份以来，人民币对美元汇率在波动中走升，尤其是8月下旬以来，上涨势头尤为强劲。 Wind数据显示，8月份，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率涨幅分别为0.83%、1.21%。其中，8月29日盘中，在岸、离岸人民 币对美元汇率最高分别升至7.1260、7.1155，均创2024年11月7日以来新高。不仅如此，8月29日，人民币对美元汇率中间价上 调33个基点至7.1030，是去年11月7日以来的峰值。 笔者认为，近期人民币对美元汇率升值，缘于内外部因素的共同推动。 从外部因素来看，当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示："由于政策 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Policy Changes - China's real estate market is experiencing a new wave of policy relaxation, with first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai optimizing housing policies and loosening restrictions in suburban areas to stabilize the market [1][3] - Shanghai has issued the "Six Measures" to optimize and adjust its real estate policies, which include changes to housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund, housing credit, and housing tax, effective from August 26, 2025 [1] - Beijing has also relaxed housing purchase restrictions, allowing families with Beijing residency and non-Beijing residents who have paid social security or income tax for over two years to purchase unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [3] Group 2: Economic Implications - Stabilizing housing consumption is a key component in boosting domestic demand, as emphasized in the recent State Council meeting, which aims for a "stop the decline and stabilize" policy for real estate [5] - The improvement in industrial enterprise profits, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicates a narrowing decline in profits for large industrial enterprises, suggesting a potential recovery in the economy [7][9] - The manufacturing sector has shown significant profit growth, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in July, contributing positively to the overall industrial profit recovery [10] Group 3: Currency and Monetary Policy - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a steady appreciation of the Chinese yuan, with the exchange rate reaching 7.1161 yuan per dollar, marking a significant increase [12] - The People's Bank of China has been actively implementing liquidity measures, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through medium-term lending facilities in August, signaling a continued commitment to monetary easing [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by a strong central parity rate, with onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates breaking through key levels, indicating a potential convergence towards the central rate [2][3] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since late July, the central parity rate has consistently indicated a strong appreciation signal, leading to a rapid increase in the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates, with expectations for the USD/CNY to move towards the 7.10-7.15 range [3][4] - As of August 29, the USD/CNY central parity rate was reported at 7.1030, up 33 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a continued strong signal for appreciation [3][4] - The market is closely monitoring factors such as the reversal of "carry trade," the potential for "panic settlement," and the central parity's "bottom line thinking" to gauge future movements in the RMB exchange rate [2][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to accelerate, with the potential for the exchange rate to reach 7.1 in the short term, contingent on further guidance from the central parity rate [2][3] - The "carry trade" based on RMB has been re-attracted due to a significant interest rate differential of approximately 260 basis points between China and the US, although volatility may disrupt this trend [4][11] - The accumulated "pending settlement" amount as of July 2025 was approximately $421.1 billion, with an average holding cost around 7.05, indicating that a rapid depreciation below 7.10 could trigger some capital flight [10][11] Group 3: Implications for Exporters - The active settlement rate for export enterprises has shown a marginal increase, with July's rate at 48.24%, approaching the previous year's levels, which supports the RMB's appreciation [8][10] - The potential for "panic settlement" among exporters is lower than in 2024 due to increased hedging against exchange rate fluctuations, which may lead to a more orderly release of settlement funds [10][11] - The RMB's appreciation against the dollar may not adversely affect exports, as the RMB index against a basket of currencies has depreciated, helping to mitigate risks from overseas tariffs [24]

Core Viewpoint - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) against the US dollar (USD) closed at 7.1330 at 16:30 Beijing time, appreciating by 55 points compared to the previous trading day's official closing price [1] Group 1 - The official closing rate of the onshore CNY shows a positive movement, indicating a strengthening of the yuan against the USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged, reaching a high of 7.1155, marking the first time it has surpassed 7.12 since November 6, 2024, and creating a new high in nearly 10 months [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly, with a rise of 53 basis points from the opening price and over 130 basis points from the highest point [1] - The onshore RMB also saw an increase, with a minimum of 7.1262, up 4 basis points from the opening price of 7.1302 [1] - The RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 33 points to 7.1030, the highest since November 6, 2024 [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Factors supporting the RMB exchange rate include a balanced exchange rate policy, strong performance in the domestic equity market attracting foreign capital, and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - The market's focus has shifted towards domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations, enhancing short-term macro upward drivers and significantly boosting domestic risk appetite [1] - The chief macro analyst from Dongfang Jincheng noted that the central parity rate's adjustment has been notably strong, with the deviation from the onshore market price increasing from 0 to 400-500 basis points, aimed at guiding the RMB to appreciate moderately [2]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 7.1173, marking the first time it has surpassed 7.12 since November 6, 2024, and reaching a nearly 10-month high, closing at 7.1209 with an increase of 314 points [1] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1306, up 194 basis points from the previous trading day [3] - The People's Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement worth 250 billion RMB, effective for five years, aimed at enhancing financial cooperation and stabilizing the financial market [4] Group 2 - Recent RMB strength is driven by three factors, including the adjustment of the RMB central parity rate, which has shifted from a discount to a premium of 400-500 basis points against the onshore market [5] - It is anticipated that the RMB exchange rate may return to the "6 era" if the central bank continues to implement market-based policies, potentially increasing the attractiveness of Chinese assets [5] - The monetary policy report suggests a focus on improving interest rate regulation and reducing financing costs, with expectations of possible interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter [5][6]