本身悬念并不大，只差临门一脚。 在"人民币即将升破7"的预期徘徊近一个月后，来自高盛的分析师给了个关键助攻。 近日，高盛发布 《 2026年全球股市展望》，在提到人民币时， 根据其动态均衡汇率模型（GSDEER），高盛测算了人民币的公允价值，显示人 民币相对美元低估近30%。 点击按钮▲预约直播 " 基于美股的研究 ：在基本面不发生背离的情况下，汇率上涨 0.1 个百分点，股票估值则提升 3%—5% 。 " 不过，口号比数字更吸引人，报告说： 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 人民币汇率相对美元的低估程度和2000年代中期相当。 2000年， 美元兑人民币汇率年平均价大约是8.28，随后，人 民币进入长达近十年的升值周期，兑美元汇率升至6.1左右 。 高盛的测算给了市场更多"看多"的信心，令本就处于升值通道的离岸人民币，开始骤然发力。 12月25日上午，美元兑离岸人民币汇率快速升破7.0关口，创下15个月来的新高，并重新正式进入"6时代"。 2005—2025美元/人民币走势 图源：钜亨网 与此同时，在岸人民币汇率探底7.0053，距离"破7"只有一步之遥 。 中国外汇交易中心公布的人民币兑美元中间价也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, breaking the 7 mark for the first time in 14 months, is seen as a reasonable adjustment influenced by a weaker dollar and changing market expectations, despite concerns about potential overvaluation [1][6]. Financial Market and Asset Prices - The current appreciation of the RMB is viewed as a corrective move rather than excessive, with the rise in value being justified from the perspectives of the dollar and interest rate differentials [1]. Trade Perspective - China's trade surplus has reached a historical high, suggesting that the RMB may have been undervalued prior to its recent appreciation [3]. Inflation Perspective - There is an increasing gap between the nominal and real exchange rates of the RMB, indicating that the currency has depreciated less than expected, with the shortfall being compensated by low domestic inflation [5]. Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The RMB's recent appreciation is attributed to three main factors: the weakening of the dollar, changes in market expectations following a trade easing period between China and the US, and seasonal patterns of net settlement at year-end [6]. Short-term Market Dynamics - While the exchange rate is a significant macroeconomic variable, its impact on the economy takes time to materialize, and policy responses may adjust accordingly to manage the effects of exchange rate fluctuations [8]. Concerns about Overvaluation - There is a concern regarding the risk of "panic settlement" leading to excessive appreciation of the RMB, which could create a self-reinforcing cycle of expectations and market behavior [8]. Future Outlook on Exchange Rate - The potential reasonable level for the USD/RMB exchange rate is estimated to be around 6.8, considering the central bank's more flexible management of the currency [12]. Central Bank's Management Approach - The recent adjustments in the RMB's midpoint rate indicate the central bank's intention to cool down the appreciation, with tools available for managing exchange rate stability, including market interventions and monetary policy adjustments [15].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has recently strengthened, breaking the 7.0 mark for the first time since September 2024, with a peak of 6.9960 [1] - The onshore RMB also showed an upward trend, reaching a high of 7.0053 and closing at 7.0066, an increase of 95 points from the previous trading day [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a significant adjustment in the central parity rate, setting it at 7.0392, which is the highest since September 30, 2024, with an increase of 79 basis points [1] Group 2 - Financial regulatory authorities have a clear strategy for stabilizing the exchange rate, emphasizing a market-oriented approach without excessive liquidity, aiming to maintain the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [2] - There is a general expectation in the market for the RMB to continue approaching the 7.0 mark in the short term, with potential for temporary breaks below this level, but long-term trends are expected to exhibit "two-way fluctuations" [2] - In the context of a weak USD index, there is still room for RMB appreciation, with regulatory support likely to keep the exchange rate fluctuating between 6.9 and 7.3 [2]

管涛认为，近期人民币升值缘于短期利多因素占据上风，并非意味着升值新周期的开启。综合来看，明 年人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，更可能围绕7反复波动。人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三 大因素：中美经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进及国内经济 恢复情况。市场不应过度执着于对具体点位的猜测，也不应形成单边升值或贬值的线性预期，双向波动 将成常态。 短期利多因素驱动人民币走强 本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。 管涛表示，美元指数11月曾升至100以上，随后持续回落并跌破98，"美元走弱为人民币升值提供了外部 支撑"。 汇管信息科技研究院副院长赵庆明也表示，自11月下旬以来，美元指数跌幅约3%，非美货币普遍走 高，人民币涨幅与美元贬值幅度基本对应，充分体现汇率"跷跷板效应"。 12月25日，外汇市场迎来标志性时刻——离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘升破"7"关口，2024年10月以来首 次收复这一重要整数关口，盘中最高触及6.9985，创15个月以来新高。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元汇 率同步走强，逼近"7"关口，报7.0066，创2024年9月以来新高。 2025年以来，伴随 ...

北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构 优化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期 可持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 转自：北京日报客户端 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，中国经济在多重变局中展现出韧性， 金融市场在政策合力下保持稳健运行。 步入2026年，"十五五"启幕之际，如何进一步释放消费潜能？货币政策如何从总量宽松转向结构优化？ 人民币汇率如何在内外挑战中保持基本稳定？债市供需结构将如何演化？"内循环"与"高水平对外开 放"又该如何协同发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家，兴业研究学术评审委员会主席鲁政 委，在他看来，2026年"以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性"将成为我国经济发展的必然选 择，应从供需两端协同发力稳固消费增长根基；步入"十五五"后，传统货币政策工具与创新货币政策工 具均有发力空间，预计人民银行将继续降准降息；在结构性货币政策工具方面，可对当前效果较好的工 具进行"加量降价"；同时，金融服 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar index, and increased demand for currency exchange from domestic enterprises as the year-end approaches [3][5]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with inflation cooling and signs of a slowing labor market, leading investors to bet on two potential rate cuts in 2026. The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized between 3.9% and 4.2% since September, reflecting market expectations for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3]. - Weakening US Dollar Index: The US dollar index has fallen to around 97.80, marking a 9.8% decline for the year, the worst annual performance since 2017, which has contributed to the appreciation of non-US currencies, including the RMB [3]. - Increased Corporate Currency Exchange Demand: As the year-end approaches, domestic foreign trade enterprises are increasing their currency exchange needs for financial settlements and cash flow, leading to a seasonal strengthening of the RMB. Although November's exchange rate did not show significant increases, the overall trade surplus for the year has prompted enterprises to exchange dollars for RMB earlier than usual [5]. Group 2: Implications of RMB Strengthening - Positive Impact on Domestic Capital Markets: The strengthening of the RMB is expected to benefit Chinese assets significantly, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets and potentially allowing for more accommodative monetary policy [5]. - Increased Cross-Border Investment Costs: The appreciation of the RMB may lead to higher currency exchange costs for cross-border investments, which could affect the final returns for investors in instruments like Hong Kong Stock Connect and mutual funds [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - RMB Exchange Rate Projections: Analysts predict that the RMB will hover around the 7.0 mark against the US dollar through 2026, with potential appreciation towards the 6.7 to 6.8 range if the US dollar index remains weak [6][7]. - Policy Stability and Market Expectations: The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining the RMB exchange rate's stability, aiming to guide market expectations and prevent one-sided trends in the currency market [6][7]. - Long-Term Trends: Analysts suggest that the RMB may decouple from the US dollar index in the future, with fundamental and policy support for the RMB's strength, while also noting that the underlying economic fundamentals will be crucial for sustained appreciation [7].

12月25日，外汇市场迎来标志性时刻——离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘升破"7"关口，2024年10月以来首 次收复这一重要整数关口，盘中最高触及6.9985，创15个月以来新高。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元汇 率同步走强，逼近"7"关口，报7.0066，创2024年9月以来新高。 2025年以来，伴随美元走弱，人民币汇率开启显著升值通道，11月下旬后更是呈现明确单边升值态 势。"7更多就是一个数学上的含义，与6.9和7.1并没有什么太大的区别，市场没必要一惊一乍。"中银证 券全球首席经济学家管涛对第一财经表示。 管涛认为，近期人民币升值缘于短期利多因素占据上风，并非意味着升值新周期的开启。综合来看，明 年人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，更可能围绕7反复波动。人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三 大因素：中美两国经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进及国内 经济恢复情况。市场不应过度执着于对具体点位的猜测，也不应形成单边升值或贬值的线性预期，汇率 双向波动将成常态。 短期利多因素驱动人民币走强 本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。 管涛表示，美元指数11月曾升至100以上，随后 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，中国经济在多重变局中展现出韧性，金融市 场在政策合力下保持稳健运行。 步入2026年，"十五五"启幕之际，如何进一步释放消费潜能？货币政策如何从总量宽松转向结构优化？人民币 汇率如何在内外挑战中保持基本稳定？债市供需结构将如何演化？"内循环"与"高水平对外开放"又该如何协同 发力？ 针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了兴业银行首席经济学家，兴业研究学术评审委员会主席鲁政委，在他 看来，2026年"以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性"将成为我国经济发展的必然选择，应从供需两端 协同发力稳固消费增长根基；步入"十五五"后，传统货币政策工具与创新货币政策工具均有发力空间，预计人 民银行将继续降准降息；在结构性货币政策工具方面，可对当前效果较好的工具进行"加量降价"；同时，金融 服务实体经济的"五篇大文章"有望在基于全国碳排放权交易市场的碳金融相关业务等领域迎来进展；而"内循 环"提质升级与"高水平对外开放"的双向赋能，将进一步筑牢中国经济韧性。 加大消费补贴与信贷支持力度 北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现 ...

12月25日，外汇市场迎来标志性时刻——离岸人民币对美元汇率开盘升破"7"关口，2024年10月以来首 次收复这一重要整数关口，盘中最高触及6.9985，创15个月以来新高。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元汇 率同步走强，逼近"7"关口，报7.0066，创2024年9月以来新高。2025年以来，伴随美元走弱，人民币汇 率开启显著升值通道，11月下旬后更是呈现明确单边升值态势。"7更多就是一个数学上的含义，与6.9 和7.1并没有什么太大的区别，市场没必要一惊一乍。"中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛表示。管涛认 为，近期人民币升值缘于短期利多因素占据上风，并非意味着升值新周期的开启。综合来看，明年人民 币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，更可能围绕7反复波动。人民币汇率最终走势将主要取决于三大因 素：中美两国经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国对外经贸关系的演进及国内经济 恢复情况。市场不应过度执着于对具体点位的猜测，也不应形成单边升值或贬值的线性预期，汇率双向 波动将成常态。（第一财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened significantly in December, with the offshore yuan surpassing the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time since September 2024, indicating a trend of appreciation in the currency [1]. Factors Driving Yuan Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to three main factors: expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weakening US dollar index, and increased demand for currency conversion from domestic enterprises as the year-end approaches [3][6]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Fed is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with inflation cooling and signs of a slowing labor market, leading investors to bet on two potential rate cuts in 2026. The 10-year US Treasury yield has stabilized between 3.9% and 4.2% since September, reflecting market expectations for a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [3]. - Weakening US Dollar Index: The US dollar index has dropped to around 97.80, marking a 9.8% decline for the year, the worst annual performance since 2017, which has contributed to the appreciation of non-US currencies, including the yuan [3]. - Increased Corporate Currency Conversion Demand: As the year-end approaches, domestic foreign trade enterprises are increasing their demand for currency conversion to meet financial settlement and cash flow needs, leading to a seasonal strengthening of the yuan [6]. Implications for Domestic Capital Markets - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to have a positive impact on domestic capital markets, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets and potentially providing more room for monetary policy easing [6]. - Analysts suggest that the strengthening yuan indicates foreign investors' confidence in yuan assets, which could drive up asset prices [6]. Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the yuan's exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around the 7.0 mark, with predictions suggesting it may rise to the 6.7 to 6.8 range by the end of 2026 if the US dollar index remains weak [7]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining the yuan's stability at a reasonable level, indicating that rapid appreciation may prompt financial authorities to intervene to stabilize fluctuations [7]. - Analysts predict that the US dollar index may continue to weaken, potentially falling to 96 by the end of 2026, although the pace of decline may be more moderate compared to this year [7][8].