Group 1: Market Transition and Outlook - A-share listed companies are transitioning from domestic-focused enterprises to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift in China's capital market from emerging to mature status [1][4] - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Chinese companies are expected to enhance their position in the global value chain, converting share advantages into pricing power, which forms the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market in A-shares [1][4] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - China's economy is anticipated to continue a recovery trend, with growth projected at around 5% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, potentially showing a pattern of lower growth in the first half and higher growth in the latter half of 2026 [2] - Fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to be more proactive, maintaining a deficit ratio around 4%, with an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Focus Areas - The investment strategy for 2026 should focus on three main lines: 1. The re-evaluation of pricing power in China's manufacturing sector, with an emphasis on industries like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [6] 2. The deepening of enterprises' international expansion, particularly in sectors such as machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military equipment [6] 3. The continuation of the technology market, with a focus on breakthroughs in AI commercialization and related hardware and applications [6] Group 4: Market Liquidity and Asset Allocation - The capital market is expected to see a continued influx of absolute return funds, contributing to a long-term downward trend in the volatility of broad-based A-share indices [6] - In terms of asset allocation, the global macro environment is generally accommodative, with expectations of a mild appreciation of the RMB and ongoing attractiveness of gold as a long-term investment asset [7]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 此外，构建现代化产业体系是重要的政策方向，或将在以"反内卷"重塑制造业利润增长的基础上，推动 各类要素向制造业汇聚。其关键在于坚持市场化管理，规范产能、价格、能耗等标准，解决制造业占比 和利润问题，培育新兴产业，形成中国经济新的增长引擎。 杨帆强调，随着中国对非美国家竞争力增强，企业和外资对中国市场认知度提高。未来新旧产业动能转 换显著，新基建、科技创新将成为增长亮点，高线城市房价收入和股市情况也会影响高价值消费。在财 政与货币政策适时加力下，宏观经济将呈结构分化下的温和修复态势。 专题：中信证券2026年资本市场年会 11月11日至13日，中信证券2026年资本市场年会在深圳举办。会议以"奋进新征程"为主题，邀请百余位 顶尖学者、产业专家、企业和投资代表进行论坛演讲，多家备受市场关注的上市公司，以及业内公募基 金、私募基金、保险资管、银行理财、海外投资机构受邀参会。 大会首日，中信证券宏观与政策首席分析师杨帆对2026年中国政策作出展望。她表示，2025年中美关系 依然复杂，技术生态、科技领域存在持续且不可控的竞争，2026年发展机遇 ...

Core Insights - Market volatility has increased since October, but the success rate of market timing remains low due to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital [1] - The stability of the corporate overseas environment and the progress of AI infrastructure investment are currently the most important variables [1] - The rise in sectors such as TMT, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy is directly or indirectly influenced by the AI narrative, with these sectors accounting for over 60% of institutional holdings [1] Investment Strategy - The approach to portfolio adjustment is not to deliberately avoid the AI narrative, but rather to select stocks with a rising trend in ROE from the bottom [1] - The AI narrative has influenced the slope of market trends rather than the overall trend itself [1]

Core Insights - The 8th China International Import Expo Trade and Investment Matchmaking Conference has commenced in Shanghai, serving as a key platform for promoting international market expansion and investment cooperation [1][3] - The conference is recognized as the largest and longest-running core supporting activity during the expo, facilitating business transactions and partnerships [1][3] Group 1: Participation and Services - China Bank's Inner Mongolia branch invited 80 local enterprises to participate, with 65 attending in person and over 15 engaging online [3] - The bank provides "full-cycle accompanying services" to small and micro enterprises, including policy interpretation, market information consultation, and financial solution matching [3][4] Group 2: Success Stories and Impact - On the first day of the conference, a small dairy enterprise from Inner Mongolia successfully reached a preliminary cooperation intention with an overseas company, focusing on raw material procurement and quality control [3] - Six additional local enterprises in agriculture and machinery manufacturing found potential partners through the matchmaking efforts, highlighting the conference's effectiveness [3][4] Group 3: Empowerment and Future Plans - The conference empowers small and micro enterprises by connecting them with global partners, enabling them to reduce production costs and upgrade products through access to international resources [4] - China Bank's Inner Mongolia branch plans to continue leveraging its global service advantages to support local enterprises in exploring international opportunities and enhancing their development [4]

Core Insights - Increasing number of Chinese enterprises are accelerating their overseas expansion, with overseas investment exceeding $1.5 trillion, indicating a shift from "flow-based expansion" to "brand, compliance, and organizational expansion" [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Deloitte data shows that the scale of overseas investment by Chinese enterprises has surpassed $1.5 trillion, marking a new phase of globalization characterized by diversification and deepening development [1] Group 2: Challenges Faced - Chinese enterprises are encountering increasingly complex risk environments during their overseas expansion, including geopolitical conflicts, regulatory changes, supply chain disruptions, climate change, and disruptive technologies [1] - Different stages of overseas expansion present unique challenges: market selection requires careful assessment of geopolitical uncertainties and inflation pressures; business expansion faces compliance and project delay issues; stable operations necessitate ongoing risk evaluations; and divestment considerations involve protecting senior personnel from potential liabilities [1] Group 3: Human Capital Challenges - Companies must address human capital challenges when expanding overseas, such as compliance with local labor laws, attracting and retaining international talent, overcoming cross-cultural integration issues, building corporate culture, and fostering a sense of belonging among employees [2]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that market volatility has increased since October, but the success rate of market timing remains low due to changes in the underlying structure of incremental capital, with steady absolute return funds entering the market, reducing the effectiveness of traditional aggressive timing strategies [1][3] Market Volatility and Timing - Since October, the market has experienced two rounds of emotional volatility, with the first triggered by Trump's new tariff threats leading to a rapid reduction in active capital and a drop in daily trading volume from 2.5 trillion yuan to 1.7 trillion yuan [1] - The second round of volatility occurred after the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, where active capital reduced positions due to uncertainties in US-China relations and high market positions approaching year-end [1][2] Structural Opportunities - Despite the volatility, the number of stocks reaching new highs has increased, with 232 stocks hitting 12-month highs by November 6, compared to 216 on September 30 [2] - The number of stocks reaching new highs in the past month rose from 384 on September 30 to 680 on November 6, indicating ongoing structural opportunities in the market [2] Steady Capital Inflow - Steady absolute return funds are increasingly entering the market, diminishing the effectiveness of traditional active timing strategies [3] - The influx of funds through stable return products is driven by declining interest rates on deposits and bank wealth management products, leading to a potential theoretical increase of 1.56 trillion yuan in the A-share market if 30% of new insurance premiums are allocated to equities [3][4] Comparison of Fund Flows - In the first nine months of the year, active public funds raised approximately 109.5 billion yuan, while passive products raised about 327 billion yuan, indicating a significant disparity compared to the potential inflow from insurance [4] - The behavior of ETF flows shows a counter-cyclical characteristic, with net inflows occurring during market corrections, highlighting a trend of "buying on dips" [5][6] Key Variables Impacting Market Trends - The stability of the overseas business environment and the construction of AI infrastructure are crucial variables affecting market trends, with the A-share market increasingly influenced by global fundamentals and US-China relations [7] - The share of overseas revenue for A-share companies is approaching 20%, indicating a growing sensitivity to international economic cycles [7] AI Infrastructure and Market Sentiment - The sustainability of AI infrastructure investment is critical for both US and A-share markets, with significant exposure to AI-related sectors [8] - Concerns about the commercial viability of AI and its impact on investment costs are prevalent, as evidenced by rising CDS spreads for major North American tech companies [8] Portfolio Adjustment Strategies - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on sectors with independent growth potential and improving ROE, rather than solely on AI narratives, to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [9][10] - The consumer sector, with a market cap share of only 7.5%, is highlighted as a relatively independent investment opportunity worth monitoring [10]

Core Insights - Dun & Bradstreet is a leading authority in the global business credit reporting sector, having been established in 1841 and playing a significant role in connecting Chinese enterprises with global markets [1][4] - The launch of "Longyicha," a global enterprise information query platform aimed at C-end users, marks a significant milestone for Dun & Bradstreet, being the first of its kind in the company's history [1][22] - The ongoing global trade environment emphasizes the importance of the Chinese market for U.S. companies, highlighting the long-term confidence foreign enterprises have in China [1][20] Company Overview - Dun & Bradstreet has evolved from its origins in credit reporting to become one of the largest commercial information service providers globally, offering data for compliance, finance, and marketing [6] - The company provides a unique identifier known as the Dun & Bradstreet D-U-N-S Number, which serves as a business's "identity card" for managing trading partners [8][10] Product Offerings - The company offers differentiated services for large enterprises and SMEs, focusing on risk compliance for large firms and customer acquisition for smaller businesses [10] - The newly launched "Longyicha" platform provides access to both domestic and global enterprise information, addressing the challenge of obtaining reliable overseas data [22][23] Market Trends - The proportion of Chinese manufacturing enterprises going global has been increasing, with a notable shift in the types of industries expanding internationally [12][17] - The number of Chinese enterprises establishing branches abroad has seen a decline in 2024, although this does not necessarily reflect a decrease in overall business volume [17] Regional Insights - Southeast Asia and South America are emerging as significant destinations for Chinese enterprises, while traditional markets like North America and Europe are experiencing a relative decline [14][15] - The changing global trade policies and geopolitical tensions are prompting companies to be more cautious in their international strategies [18][20]

Core Insights - The "Hui Dong Global Anhui Vehicle Going Abroad" exchange event was held in Hefei on November 8, highlighting the growing international presence of Anhui's automotive industry [1] - In the first three quarters of this year, Anhui Province produced 2.404 million vehicles and 1.216 million new energy vehicles, ranking first in China for both categories [1] - Anhui's automotive exports reached 802,000 units in the same period, also the highest in China [1] Industry Developments - There is a positive shift in the attitude of European OEMs and supply chain companies towards Chinese enterprises, as noted by the chairman of Chery Automobile [1] - The automotive industry is viewed as a "full marathon" requiring collaboration across the supply chain for successful international expansion [1] Investment and Expansion - Anhui has established over 200 automotive supply chain enterprises in 42 countries and regions [1] - Companies like Chery and JAC have invested in factories across Southeast Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, creating an initial international production and marketing system [1] - In 2024, Anhui's automotive manufacturing industry is projected to invest $354 million abroad, accounting for 15.27% of the province's total foreign investment [1] - In the first nine months of this year, Anhui automotive companies invested $312 million overseas [1] Support Infrastructure - Anhui has set up 33 overseas business service points to support enterprises in expanding into international markets [1]

Core Points - The "Hong Kong Professional Listing and Outbound Service Alliance" was launched to provide comprehensive support for Chinese companies going public and expanding internationally [1][2] - The alliance aims to address challenges faced by Chinese enterprises in the Hong Kong listing process, such as long cycles, high costs, and information barriers [1] - Hong Kong is positioned as a "super connector" between China and the world, leveraging its unique advantages to facilitate the globalization of Chinese enterprises [1][2] Group 1 - The alliance integrates financial, legal, and consulting resources to create a full-service system for companies [1] - The Hong Kong International Import Expo is highlighted as a significant platform for observing China's high-level openness and as a means for Chinese companies to access global markets [1] - The establishment of the alliance is seen as a practical step to empower internationalization efforts for enterprises, utilizing the advantages of Hong Kong's representative office in Shanghai [1] Group 2 - The forum, hosted by the Hong Kong Chinese General Chamber of Commerce, is part of the 2025 Import Expo Shanghai conference activities [2] - Representatives from government, professional institutions, and well-known enterprises discussed new opportunities for companies to expand internationally [2] - Chinese innovative technology companies are recognized for their inherent global outlook, with Hong Kong serving as an international innovation center providing comprehensive support for their outbound strategies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong has seen a robust influx of new listings, with nearly 80 companies raising approximately HKD 210 billion, indicating a strong and sustainable development in the market [1] Group 1: Market Activity - As of last month, Hong Kong has nearly 80 new listings with a total fundraising amount of about HKD 210 billion [1] - The authorities are currently processing 300 applications for new listings, reflecting ongoing interest in the market [1] Group 2: Role of Mainland Enterprises - Mainland Chinese companies, particularly those listed in both A-share and H-share markets, are seeking overseas expansion and financing, highlighting their global competitiveness [1] - These enterprises have become international and even multinational companies, showcasing their advanced scale and technology [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Hong Kong is positioned to contribute to national development and enhance its own role in the global market [1] - There is an emphasis on the need for market optimization and reforms to improve the competitiveness of the entire capital market, including both equity and bond markets [1]