Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025, driven by central bank gold purchases, economic recession risks, and weakening dollar credibility [1][3]. Group 1: Forecast Timeframe - Key timeframe for the target price is set for the end of 2025, with potential for earlier achievement if central bank purchases exceed expectations or if recession risks intensify, possibly reaching $3,810 to $3,880 [1]. - An extreme scenario predicts a mid-2026 price of $4,000 per ounce under conditions of strong central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [2]. Group 2: Current Progress and Supporting Logic - Central banks exceeded expectations with a purchase of 106 tons in February 2025, significantly above historical averages, with emerging markets like China and India driving diversification of foreign reserves [3]. - Goldman Sachs assesses a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, which could lead to increased inflows into gold ETFs, thereby boosting prices [3]. - Factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical instability are diminishing the attractiveness of the dollar [3]. Group 3: Market Performance Validation - Gold prices surpassed $3,500 in April 2025 but retreated to $3,278 by the end of June, before rebounding above $3,320 in early July, indicating strong market support [4]. - Central bank purchases and investment demand, such as daily sales of bank gold bars exceeding 5 tons, provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Various institutions have differing target prices for gold by the end of 2025, with Goldman Sachs at $3,700, UBS at $3,500, Citigroup at $2,500-$2,700, and Deutsche Bank at $3,400, reflecting a range of views on market dynamics [8][9]. Group 5: Recommendations for Retail Investors - Investors are advised to monitor key indicators such as monthly central bank gold purchase data, with a sustained rate above 80 tons per month significantly increasing the likelihood of reaching the $3,700 target [9]. - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions, particularly a potential rate cut in September, could act as a catalyst for gold price breakthroughs [10].

Core Viewpoint - The potential for gold prices to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 is supported by various market dynamics, institutional forecasts, and influencing factors [1][17]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Price Increase - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have raised their forecasts multiple times, predicting gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025, with a possibility of $4,000 by mid-2026 due to geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credit, and ongoing central bank purchases [1]. - The long-term upward cycle for gold remains intact, with significant support from central bank purchases, as global central banks have been net buyers for 16 consecutive years, adding 244 tons in Q1 2025 [2][5]. - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut could further weaken the dollar, which has already fallen to its lowest level since March 2022, potentially boosting gold prices [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Structural Demand - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the fragility of Middle East ceasefire agreements and fluctuating U.S.-China tariff negotiations, may reignite safe-haven demand for gold [4]. - The structural demand for gold is reinforced by the fact that 95% of central banks plan to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next 12 months [5]. Group 3: Risks to Price Increase - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices fall below $3,165 per ounce, a technical correction of 10-15% could occur, potentially bringing prices down to the $2,500-$2,700 range [6]. - Current gold prices are detached from actual production costs, indicating a risk of valuation correction due to high price levels [7]. - If strong non-farm payroll data or inflation rebounds occur, the Fed may delay interest rate cuts, which could suppress gold prices [8]. Group 4: Institutional Divergence - There is a divergence among institutions regarding gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting $3,700, UBS over $3,500, while Citigroup warns of a potential drop to the $2,500-$2,700 range [11]. Group 5: Investor Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain rationality amid short-term volatility and avoid chasing price movements, as gold prices are highly sensitive to policy changes [12]. - A recommended allocation for gold in household financial assets is between 5-10%, with a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate timing risks [12]. - Key policy anchors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the political landscape surrounding U.S. elections [13].

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has seen a significant increase in the first half of 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and central bank purchases, with expectations for continued upward movement in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, marking the largest semi-annual increase since the second half of 2007 [1]. - The international gold price reached a historical high of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, followed by a period of fluctuation in May and June [1]. - Currently, gold prices are oscillating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce, with increasing market competition between bulls and bears [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in confidence in the US dollar, with a 10.7% drop in the dollar index in the first half of 2025, has provided strong support for rising gold prices [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened market risk aversion, maintaining high demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - Central banks globally have shown a strong demand for gold reserves, with a net purchase of 256 tons in the first four months of 2025 [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - As of the end of May 2025, China's gold reserves stood at 7,383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) [2]. - A survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next 12 months, with nearly 43% planning to add to their reserves within the year [2].

Group 1 - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened, leading to a new pricing framework for gold [1][3] - Prior to 2022, the relationship between gold prices and real interest rates was stable, with rising real rates leading to decreased demand for gold and vice versa [3] - Since 2022, gold prices have remained strong even in the context of significant increases in real interest rates, challenging the traditional pricing logic [3] Group 2 - Central bank gold purchases have become a significant driver of gold prices, with over 1000 tons bought in the past three years, double the average from 2010 to 2021 [4] - Concerns over the dominance of the US dollar and the need for diversified asset allocation have led to increased central bank demand for gold [4] - The uncertainty in the monetary system is reshaping gold's role as a store of value, with investors viewing it as a core asset to mitigate monetary risks rather than just an inflation hedge [4] Group 3 - The importance of gold as a diversification tool in investment portfolios has increased amid global economic uncertainty [4] - Institutional investors are beginning to see gold as a necessary long-term allocation rather than a short-term trading asset, providing ongoing support for gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex market dynamics of gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, highlighting three distinct phases of price evolution after the last rate increase in July 2024. Group 1: Short-term Volatility Driven by Expectations - Prior to the July 2024 rate hike, gold prices fell from $2468 per ounce to $2380 per ounce, a decline of approximately 3.6% as the market had already priced in the rate increase [3] - Following the rate hike, if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold may rebound quickly; for instance, after Chairman Powell indicated that inflation was under control, gold prices rose to $2420 per ounce within 48 hours, an increase of 1.7% [3] Group 2: Mid-term Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and the Dollar - After the rate hike, changes in real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) become crucial; for example, in March 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.58% to 4.24%, leading to a 12.5% increase in gold prices from 905 yuan per gram to 1018 yuan per gram [4] - Conversely, if inflation expectations decline unexpectedly, rising real interest rates could suppress gold prices; in June 2025, gold prices fell from 1018 yuan per gram to 984 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.3% due to an increase in core PCE inflation expectations to 3% [4] Group 3: Long-term Support from Structural Factors - Central bank gold purchases provide long-term support; in Q1 2025, net gold purchases by central banks reached 289 tons, a year-on-year increase of 62%, with China's gold reserves hitting a record high of 2292 tons [4] - Despite a temporary strengthening of the dollar index post-rate hike, central bank purchases supported a 19% annual increase in gold prices, significantly outperforming the commodity index [4] - Investors should monitor three key signals: the "critical point" of a shift in Federal Reserve policy (e.g., unemployment rate exceeding 4.5%), the correlation between geopolitical risk indices and gold ETF holdings (e.g., a 5-ton increase in gold ETF holdings during Middle East conflicts in June 2025), and the spillover effects of industrial policies like carbon tariffs on precious metals with industrial properties [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月30日 相关研究报告 宏观经济专题研究 去美元化下的央行购金行为研究 去美元化下的储备资产重分配。（1）GDP 与货币国际地位的关联及例外 情况。理论上，各国 GDP 份额与外汇交易份额应呈相关性。但中国和美 国是明显例外，中国 GDP 占比 16.67%，外汇储备占比仅 2.29%；美国 GDP 占比 26.10%，外汇储备占比却达 58.42%，两国货币化水平均大幅偏离 经济地位。（2）金价与美元储备地位的关系。中长期看，金价与美元 储备地位高度相关，美元储备占比上升时金价往往下降，反之则上涨。 （3）央行购金行为的趋势。2022 年以来，各国央行黄金需求大增， 2011-2021 年央行年均黄金需求 509.1 吨，2022-2024 年平均达 1072.3 吨。2024 年各国央行持有的黄金储备接近布雷顿森林体系时代水平，按 市场价格计算，黄金成为全球第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。买入黄金 的央行主要是波兰、土耳其、印度和中国等新兴国家央行，2022 年后新 兴国家央行大幅增持黄金。 如何观测央行购金行为。（1）官方黄金储备数据的局限性。人民银行官 方黄金储备数据存在延 ...

去美元化下的储备资产重分配。（1）GDP 与货币国际地位的关联及例外 情况。理论上，各国 GDP 份额与外汇交易份额应呈相关性。但中国和美 国是明显例外，中国 GDP 占比 16.67%，外汇储备占比仅 2.29%；美国 GDP 占比 26.10%，外汇储备占比却达 58.42%，两国货币化水平均大幅偏离 经济地位。（2）金价与美元储备地位的关系。中长期看，金价与美元 储备地位高度相关，美元储备占比上升时金价往往下降，反之则上涨。 （3）央行购金行为的趋势。2022 年以来，各国央行黄金需求大增， 2011-2021 年央行年均黄金需求 509.1 吨，2022-2024 年平均达 1072.3 吨。2024 年各国央行持有的黄金储备接近布雷顿森林体系时代水平，按 市场价格计算，黄金成为全球第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。买入黄金 的央行主要是波兰、土耳其、印度和中国等新兴国家央行，2022 年后新 兴国家央行大幅增持黄金。 如何观测央行购金行为。（1）官方黄金储备数据的局限性。人民银行官 方黄金储备数据存在延迟，如 2022 年 5-10 月英国对华黄金出口逐步放 量至 7.34 万千克，但中国人民银行公布的官 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the gold market is expected to maintain upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and sustained central bank gold purchases [3][6][62] - The performance of the metal industry in H1 2025 shows that the steel sector underperformed with a 0.62% increase, while the non-ferrous metal sector outperformed with a 15.34% increase [18][19] - Key metals such as gold, cobalt, antimony, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide have shown significant price increases compared to the end of last year and the same period last year, with gold prices rising by 25.24% year-to-date [2][41] Group 2 - The report indicates that the demand for rare earth exports is expected to recover due to relaxed export controls and growing needs in the new energy and robotics sectors [7][10] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing rapidly, with several domestic automakers planning small-scale applications by 2026-2027, and key manufacturers establishing production lines for solid-state battery materials [8][10] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on companies with rich gold resources, strong cost control, and potential for production growth, as well as those in the rare earth and solid-state battery materials sectors [9][10]

所以，洗盘的行情不要看的太远，见好就收即可，别总想着拿长线，不然到手的利润又没了，波段交易就行，等待市场走出来单边之后再跟随趋 势。 反复洗盘，来回横跳，地缘风险也没能托起黄金大涨，短期看空也没能让金价跳水，一会给多头希望，一会给空头幻想，转眼两个月过去了，震 荡到现在还没能结束。 最近，地缘风险不断升级，避险情绪未能彻底点燃，以色列和伊朗的上空火箭横飞，美国已经开始陷入以色列战争当中，给未来增加了更多的不 确定性。 不过，这一次战争的影响对市场并不大，周一原油和黄金全线跳空高开，之后就一路阴跌向下，中途出现几次强势反弹，但明显获利盘选择离场 观望，导致金价上涨后又遇滑铁卢。 两个方面： 首先，战争持续在进行，但对市场的影响并不持续，俄乌冲突到现在三年多过去了，巴以战争也成了持久战，市场现在已经对地缘风险产生抗体 了，除非美国和伊朗背后大哥普京正式开干，那肯定能带动黄金起飞。 其次，美联储货币政策才是重点，到底降不降息，什么时候降，降多少？通胀已经下降了，鲍威尔到现在金口不松，推迟降息时间和周期这可能 会给市场减少买入的底气。 最后，各国央行还能不能像去年一样加码买黄金，自2024年11月5日特朗普上任后，央 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report Period: June 23 - 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Fed's hawkish signals pushed up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the gold price. However, geopolitical risks (escalation of the Middle - East conflict) and ETF purchases (an 8.31 - ton weekly increase in SPDR) provided support, causing gold to enter a consolidation phase. Next week, focus on economic data (core PCE, non - farm payrolls) and geopolitical situations. Weak data strengthening the interest - rate cut expectation or new changes in the Middle - East may lead to a gold price rebound; a continuously strengthening US dollar may continue to drive the price down. Central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but policy fluctuations may intensify short - term volatility [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 774 - 782, and the upper resistance was 800 - 808 [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 766 - 775, and the upper resistance is 800 - 808 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a consolidation phase, and it may be near the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price first rose and then fell, mainly driven by fluctuations in Fed policy expectations (interest rates remained unchanged but the easing expectation increased) and US dollar fluctuations. The industrial property of silver (surge in photovoltaic demand + global shortage) drove the silver price to a new high. The repair of the gold - silver ratio strengthened the upward trend, but hawkish signals and the stabilization of the US dollar led to profit - taking. Next week, a tight supply - demand balance (low inventory) and dovish expectations are expected to support a relatively strong consolidation. Be vigilant against the suppression of a US dollar rebound, and the impact of geopolitical risks is limited [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver's internal - external price difference [41][43][45]