记者丨 张欣 编辑丨肖嘉 视频丨曾婷芳 见习编辑陈泽锴 延续本周一的上涨热潮，截至12月23日12：43，黄金期货与现货黄金价格双双暴涨并再创历史新高。 其中，COMEX黄金升破4500美元/盎司，年内涨幅超71%；现货黄金升破4485美元/盎司，年内涨幅超70%，两大品种均刷新历史纪录。国内金 价站上千元大关。 | | 你需要屋 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | NYMEX铂 | 2211.3d | 121.9 | 5.83% | 142.89% | | NYMEX铝 | 1904.50d | 73.60 | 4.02% | 109.40% | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2178.90 | 49.20 | 2.31% | 141.03% | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1807.00 | 32.90 | 1.85% | 98.90% | | COMEX自银 | 69.730d | 1.165 | 1.70% | 138.07% | | COMEX黄金 | 4519.2d | 49.8 | ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold reaching $4524.9 per ounce and London gold at $4490.08 per ounce, marking annual increases of over 62% and 71% respectively, representing the strongest annual performance in over 40 years [1][6] - Physical gold prices have also hit record highs, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao Gold quoting prices above 1400 yuan per gram [3][4] - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, amid geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia [6] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported a net increase of 53 tons in global official gold reserves in October, the largest monthly net demand for gold this year, contributing to the upward trend in gold prices [6] - Looking ahead to 2026, the gold market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by multiple forces, with potential price increases of 5% to 15% under certain economic conditions, and even 15% to 30% in extreme scenarios [7] - Factors such as global economic recovery, changes in interest rate cycles, and potential dollar strength could exert pressure on gold prices, with possible declines of 5% to 20% if these conditions materialize [7]

【导读】国际金价持续刷新历史新高 中国基金报记者 忆山 金价仍在一路狂飙！ 继前一日大幅上涨、创下历史新高后，12月23日，COMEX黄金又相继突破4500美元/盎 司、4510美元/盎司、4520美元/盎司关口，截至发稿，报4524.9美元/盎司，年内涨幅超 62%；伦敦金现也突破4490美元/盎司关口，截至发稿，报4490.08美元/盎司，年内涨幅超 71%。 至此，现货、期货黄金均录得逾四十年来最强劲的年度表现。 COMEX黄金 < Q GC.CMX 3.33万 4469.4 总手 昨结 4524 9 4481.8 现手 6 +1.24% 开盘 +55.5 1.60万 最高价 4526.5 持 仓 36.21万 外 盘 最低价 4479.8 增 仓 1.73万 1.05万 内 盘 分时 | 五日 | 日K | 周K | 月K 更多 ◎ 叠加 设均线 MA5:4421.9↑ 10:4367.3↑ 20:4298.8↑ 前复权 4660.4 -4526-5- 3808.1 08-11 12-23 10-16 成交量 总手:3万 总额:0 VMA5:17万 VMA10:19万 VMA20:18万 × 实物黄金 ...

面对新高，怎么办？别冲动追高！我的策略是：长期看好，等待回调。 黄金的长期逻辑（去美元化、 央行购金）依然坚固，但短期急涨后，更适合等待市场情绪冷静、出现技术性回调时，再分批布局。 那么问题来了： 你认为黄金这轮牛市，是避险情绪主导的短期冲刺，还是美元信用松动的长期起点？ 评论区聊聊你的真知灼见！ 我是帮主郑重，关注我，看懂资产波动背后的核心逻辑。 朋友们注意，一个历史性的数字诞生了：现货黄金突破4449美元！单日暴涨超2.4%，天花板又被捅破 了！ 为什么这么猛？两个引擎在轰鸣：一是全球地缘局势紧张，避险资金涌入"诺亚方舟"；二是市场对明年 美联储降息的预期持续升温，持有黄金的机会成本下降。这不是偶然，这是对不确定性的集中定价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a historic high of over $4,400 per ounce, marking a 68% increase in 2025, driven by falling interest rates, a weaker dollar, geopolitical tensions, and significant central bank buying [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Falling interest rates and a weaker dollar are making gold more attractive, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [1]. - The U.S. dollar is experiencing its largest annual decline since 2017, which enhances global demand for gold as it becomes more affordable for foreign buyers [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Rising geopolitical tensions, including trade uncertainties and military actions, have reinforced gold's status as a safe haven asset, leading to increased investments in gold-backed ETFs and central bank purchases [2]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Central banks have become structural buyers of gold, with global official gold holdings reaching nearly 36,200 tonnes, up from around 15% of total reserves two years ago to close to 20% now [3]. - This long-term holding by central banks reduces available supply and provides support during price consolidations, reflecting a reassessment of currency risk [3]. Group 4: Future Predictions - The World Gold Council anticipates a period of consolidation in 2026, with gold prices influenced by growth, inflation, and interest rates [4]. - Various scenarios suggest that in a downturn, gold could outperform sharply, while stronger U.S. policies may pressure gold prices due to higher interest rates [5].

摘要 央行购金行为是支撑金价的关键因素，类似于大股东回购股票，减少市 场流通量，长期来看，其影响远超地缘政治和美元利率等短期因素。 近期金价上涨可能与特朗普加征关税预期、宽财政和货币政策以及美联 储人事变动等因素有关，但央行购金仍是主导力量，低成本吸纳抛压盘， 使得金价难以下跌。 预计 2026 年一季度美国经济将表现良好，带动风险资产上涨，原因包 括基数较低、美联储降息预期以及疫情数据对计调模型的污染，但央行 购金将继续支撑金价。 虽然美债利率和美元指数走高理论上利空黄金，但自 2024 年以来，这 种关联性减弱，美元强弱不再是主导性变量，央行购金行为将继续支撑 并推高金价。 黄金适合耐心资本，从一年维度看仍处于上涨轨道。最佳策略是买入并 长期持有，不必过多关注短期波动，长期持有最终都会盈利。 即使 2026 年一季度美国经济表现良好、风险资产上涨，也不必过分担 忧，因为央行持续购金行为将继续支撑并推高金价。 黄金重回 1000，后市怎么看 20251222 自 2024 年以来，黄金价格的上涨主要受到中长期因素的推动，其中最核心的 是央行购金和去美元化趋势。央行购金行为自 2022 年第三季度以来成为影响 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights that geopolitical tensions and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are the primary drivers behind the surge in gold prices [2] - Continuous purchases of gold by central banks and inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also contributed to the rising gold prices [2] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, which is influencing market behavior and driving gold prices higher [2] - There is a market expectation that the Federal Reserve will implement further interest rate cuts, which is positively impacting gold prices [2] - Gold-backed ETFs have seen inflows for five consecutive weeks, indicating strong investor interest in gold [2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reports that the total holdings of these funds have been increasing every month this year, except for May [2]

Group 1: Key Findings on Gold Price Dynamics - The linear relationship between gold ETF demand and gold price indicates that for every 1 ton increase in investment demand, the gold price rises by $0.46/oz[1] - From 2003 to 2022, the gold ETF size explained 94.1% of gold price fluctuations, with a slope of 14.29, meaning a 1 million oz increase in gold ETF size leads to a $14.29/oz increase in gold price[1] - Since December 2022, the explanatory power of gold ETF size on gold price has dropped to 9.19%, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics due to increased central bank gold purchases[1] Group 2: Central Bank Purchases Impact - Central bank gold purchases accounted for 92.78% of the changes in the residuals between actual and implied gold ETF demand from Q3 2022 to Q3 2025[1] - As of Q3 2025, the gold ETF size was 96.65 million oz, while the implied gold ETF demand was 235.91 million oz, resulting in a residual of 139.27 million oz, closely matching the central banks' net purchases of 116.15 million oz during the same period[1] - A simplified binary model for gold price suggests it is now primarily driven by central bank demand, influenced by dollar credit, rather than solely by ETF demand[1] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ongoing trend of central bank gold purchases is expected to provide strong support for a rising gold price amid geopolitical tensions and economic isolationism[1] - Potential risks include a slowdown in central bank purchases, liquidity risks from a global financial crisis, and the impact of technological advancements in the U.S. that could challenge the long-term upward trend of gold prices[1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that gold prices have reached historic highs due to geopolitical tensions and market expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The most actively traded gold futures for February 2026 surpassed $4,430 per ounce, marking a new record [1] - London spot gold prices also broke the $4,400 per ounce mark, achieving a historic high [1] Group 2 - Continuous purchases of gold by central banks and inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have contributed to the rising gold prices [4] - Data from Bloomberg indicates that gold-backed ETFs have seen inflows for five consecutive weeks [4] - According to the World Gold Council, the total holdings of these funds have increased every month this year, except for May [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from central banks and investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of December 22, the London spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce, marking a 67% increase from early 2025 when it was below $2,600 [1]. - International gold prices have shown a volatile upward trend since early December, with a cumulative increase of approximately 4% since the beginning of the month [2]. - COMEX gold prices reached a new historical high of $4,425 per ounce on December 22, indicating strong market momentum [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. labor market data, including a higher-than-expected non-farm employment increase and a rising unemployment rate, has led to expectations of a dovish monetary policy in 2026, supporting gold prices [2]. - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold holdings, with a net addition of 1,045 tons in 2024, providing fundamental support for gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $4,750 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by persistent demand and limited supply [5]. - The market anticipates a structural imbalance between rigid demand and elastic supply, which will continue to support gold prices in the coming years [5]. - However, there are concerns about potential market corrections and geopolitical developments that could impact gold prices in the short term, with expectations of a trading range between $4,250 and $4,550 per ounce [5].