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建信期货铝日报-20250926
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:23
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The aluminum industry chain generally strengthened due to the sharp rise in copper prices. Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher and moved upward, but the main contract 2511 closed down 0.39% at 20,765. The spread between October and November changed from flat to a slight discount of -5, and the far - month maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around -1,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the spot price of downstream alumina is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has little short - term change. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the election in Guinea [8]. - Alumina rose 1.66% during the day. The disturbance news from the Boke mine in Guinea was more of an emotional stimulus, and the substantial impact was temporarily limited. The low - cost support of alumina was prominent [8]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continued to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long AD and short AL [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. On Thursday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 2.1 to 61.7 tons compared with last Thursday. With the decline in the absolute price and the pre - holiday stocking demand of aluminum processing enterprises, the previous inventory accumulation pressure began to ease. Shanghai aluminum returned to the previous oscillation range, and the support below continued to focus on the 20,500 level [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.39%. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around -1,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The production situation of domestic bauxite in the north and the price trends of bauxite and alumina were analyzed, and attention was paid to the mining rights policy in Guinea [8]. - Alumina rose during the day, and its low - cost support was prominent. The trend of cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, and a trading strategy was proposed [8]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained high, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased, and the support level of Shanghai aluminum was pointed out [8]. 2. Industry News - Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. The IPO will test international investors' attitude towards Middle Eastern aluminum assets and consolidate the UAE's position in the aluminum supply chain [9][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan remained at about 2.091 billion cans, the same as the previous year and remaining at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched, with a total registration volume of 3,878 tons on the first day [10].
豆粕:阿根廷恢复出口关税,反弹震荡,豆一:反弹震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:10
2025 年 09 月 26 日 豆粕:阿根廷恢复出口关税,反弹震荡 豆一:反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 (元/吨) | 3929 | +39 (+1.00%) | 3942 | +12 (+0.31%) | | 货 期 | (元/吨) DCE豆粕2601 | 2967 | +45(+1.54%) | 2956 | -5(-0.17%) | | | CBOT大豆11 (美分/蒲) | 1012 | +3.5(+0.35%) | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 (美元/短吨) | 273.3 | -2.6(-0.94%) | | n a | | | | | (43%) 豆粕 | | | | | 山东 (元/吨) | 2950~3000, 较昨+10或+20或持平; 平; 12-1月M2601+50, | 较昨持平或 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250926
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:40
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Chlor - Alkali Industry**: The caustic soda market has a high supply, and there is a possibility of price cuts. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize in the peak season from September to October, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease [2]. - **Crude Oil Industry**: The current oil market shows a game between weak macro - expectations and tight spot fundamentals. It is likely to operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to focus on unilateral segment operations [24]. - **Methanol Industry**: The port inventory has decreased. The supply in the inland is at a relatively high level, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral, and the futures price fluctuates between high inventory and overseas gas - restriction expectations [29]. - **Urea Industry**: The urea futures market shows a weak and volatile pattern, mainly due to the deepening contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Although the cost provides some support, it is difficult to reverse the market downturn [37]. - **Polyolefin Industry**: PP production has decreased recently, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a high point, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory has decreased. The pressure of inventory accumulation for 01 contracts is relatively large, which limits the upward space [43]. - **Polyester Industry**: PX supply increases, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand is expected to be weak. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and the short - term basis is supported. Ethylene glycol supply - demand is gradually weakening. Short - fiber support is strong in the short - term, and bottle - chip supply - demand is still loose [46]. - **Styrene Industry**: The supply of pure benzene is loose, and the demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene is relatively loose, and the port inventory has accumulated, so the price may be under pressure [53]. 3. Summary by Directory Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged, while PVC prices showed a slight increase. The futures prices of some contracts decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 5%. The demand for downstream products of caustic soda and PVC generally increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the inventory in some areas decreased. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased slightly, and the total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 26th, Brent crude oil rose by 0.16%, WTI rose by 0.45%, and SC fell by 1.55%. The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [24]. - **Market Logic**: The market focus has shifted from geopolitical risks and tight supply to concerns about the macro - economy. The strong US economic data and the expected resumption of crude oil supply in the Kurdish region of Iraq put pressure on oil prices, while the supply interruption concerns caused by the Russia - Ukraine conflict support the price [24]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some methanol futures contracts increased slightly, and the spot prices of some regions decreased slightly [29]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased, mainly due to increased demand for pick - up and a significant decrease in the unloading volume of imported ships [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply in the inland is at a high level, and the demand is affected by the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral [29]. Urea Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures prices of urea showed a weak and volatile pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the long - short ratio decreased slightly [34]. - **Upstream and Downstream**: The prices of upstream raw materials were relatively stable, and the prices of downstream products were mostly unchanged. The cross - regional spreads and basis differences changed to some extent [35][36][37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea was at a high level, the agricultural demand was in the off - season, and the industrial demand was dragged down by the decline in the compound fertilizer operating rate [37]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of some polyolefin futures contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads between some contracts decreased significantly [43]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE and PP decreased. The operating rates of PE and PP devices increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rates also increased [43]. Polyester Industry - **Prices**: On September 25th, the prices of some polyester products changed. The prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil and PX also fluctuated. The spreads and processing fees of related products changed [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PX increased, the supply of PTA was expected to shrink, ethylene glycol supply - demand was gradually weakening, short - fiber supply was at a high level, and bottle - chip supply - demand was still loose [46]. Styrene Industry - **Prices**: From September 24th to 25th, the prices of upstream raw materials and styrene - related products changed to some extent. The cash flows of some products improved [49][50][51]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, and the styrene inventory increased [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene was loose, and the demand support was limited. The overall supply - demand of styrene was relatively loose, and the port inventory had accumulated [53].
建信期货沥青日报-20250925
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:04
行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(碳市场工业硅) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250925
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is fluctuating, the medium - term trend is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has changed and the steel price continues to fluctuate. There are also explanations for the calculation of price changes and definitions of different trends [2] 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. The production of construction steel mills has weakened, and the weekly output has continued to decline, but the inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Thanks to pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industry has not improved, so the peak season is lackluster. Overall, due to the improvement in demand, the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing support for the steel price, but the weak downstream performance and demand concerns remain, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a fluctuating trend before the holiday, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]
国投期货化工日报-20250923
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 12:10
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].
沪银期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至2%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The main contract for silver futures in Shanghai has seen an intraday increase of 2%, currently priced at 10,375 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures market is experiencing a notable rise in prices, indicating potential bullish sentiment among investors [1]
铝日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:59
1. Report Information - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut decision has been made, but China's 5 - year LPR remained unchanged on Monday. The A - share market weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum futures showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, continuing the adjustment trend. The main contract 2511 closed down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - The fundamentals of alumina remain weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is gradually emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level. Although it has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September", the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the absolute price falls and aluminum processing enterprises have pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward - then - downward trend, with the main contract 2511 closing down 0.36% at 20,745 yuan. The spread between October and November contracts turned to a premium of 5 yuan, and the far - month contracts showed a slight contango structure. The import window remained closed, and the spot import loss widened to - 1,780 yuan/ton [7]. - Bauxite Situation: The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. There is upward pressure on the price of northern bauxite, but the downstream alumina spot price is falling, and the willingness to suppress prices is increasing. The price of imported bauxite has not changed much in the short term and is still oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the changes in the mining rights policy before the Guinea election [7]. - Alumina Suggestion: The fundamentals of alumina are weak, but at the current price, some manufacturers are on the verge of profit and loss again, and cost support is emerging. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Strategy: The trend of cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum. With the peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap aluminum industry, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Outlook: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. Although it has entered the peak season, the inventory inflection point has not appeared. As the price falls and there is pre - holiday stocking demand, the inventory pressure is expected to ease. Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and the back structure may deepen [7]. 4.2 Industry News - Policy Issuance: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and guide the orderly layout of related industries [8][10]. - Project Delay: India's Federal Ministry of Environment has postponed the approval of Vedanta's Sijimali bauxite project in Odisha. The project has an estimated reserve of 311 million tons. The Forest Advisory Committee (FAC) pointed out that the report submitted by the Odisha government did not address issues such as community consent, compensatory afforestation, and ecological risks. The project will remain on hold until these issues are resolved [10]. - Mining Right Change: The mining right of the Dataoyuan bauxite mine in Shanzhou District, Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd., has been changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10].
银河期货铁矿石日报-20250922
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View No clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly provides daily data on iron ore including futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, import profits, and more. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Prices - DCE01: Today's price is 808.5, up 1.0 from yesterday; DCE05 is 786.0, unchanged; DCE09 is 766.0, up 2.0 [2] - Inter - contract spreads: I01 - I05 is 22.5, up 1.0; I05 - I09 is 20.0, down 2.0; I09 - I01 is - 42.5, up 1.0 [2] Spot Prices - Various iron ore spot prices increased compared to the previous day. For example, PB powder (60.8%) rose from 780 to 786, Newman powder from 789 to 796, etc. [2] Basis - The basis of different iron ore varieties to different contracts is provided. For the optimal delivery product (Roy Hill powder), the 01 - contract basis is 34, 05 - contract basis is 55, and 09 - contract basis is 77 [2] Spot Variety Spreads - Spreads between different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the spread of Carajás fines - PB powder increased from 128 to 129 [2] Import Profits - Import profits of different iron ore varieties changed. For example, the import profit of Carajás fines decreased from 18 to 3 [2] Indexes - The Platts 62% iron ore price increased from 105.2 to 106.6, the 65% price remained unchanged at 120.8, and the 58% price increased from 93.3 to 94.6 [2] 内外盘美金价差 - The spreads between SGX and DCE contracts increased. For example, SGX main - DCE01 increased from 7.2 to 7.5 [2]
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250922
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 05:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the caustic soda futures stopped falling and stabilized, with a sharp rebound on Friday. Next week, the supply is expected to increase, and the operating rate of sample manufacturers will rise. The profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises is narrowing, and the support for spot prices is weak. The inventory in North China is rising, while that in East China is falling. In the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, there may be a price cut in the short - term [2]. - **PVC**: Last week, the PVC futures rebounded due to macro - warming, but the supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to ease. Next week, the output is expected to increase as many enterprises finish maintenance. The downstream demand is limited, and the procurement enthusiasm is average. The cost provides bottom - support. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize in September - October [2]. Urea Industry The urea futures are weakly declining. The supply may increase, and the demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak. The export new orders are limited. If there is no export surge or early shutdown of gas - based plants, the price may fall below 1,550 yuan/ton [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The weekly supply - demand of pure benzene is weak. In September, the supply may remain at a high level, and the demand support is weak. The price driving force is weak. The strategy for BZ2603 is to follow the styrene fluctuations [13]. - **Styrene**: The weekly supply - demand of styrene is also weak. The strategy is to be bearish on the absolute price rebound of EB11, and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at a low level, but the driving force is limited [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **PX**: The supply of PX may increase due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance. The demand is affected by PTA maintenance. The price is under pressure, and the basis boost is limited [17]. - **PTA**: The processing fee of PTA is low, and new device production is postponed. The demand is in the peak season, but the basis and processing fee repair drive is insufficient. The absolute price follows the cost [17]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand of MEG is gradually weakening. In the short - term, the import is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long - term, it will enter the inventory accumulation period in the fourth quarter [17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber supply is high, and the demand is limited during the peak season. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound drive is limited [17]. - **Bottle chips**: The bottle chip device restart and shutdown coexist. The downstream replenishment supports the price and processing fee, but the increase is limited [17]. Polyolefin Industry PP production has decreased due to losses in PDH and external propylene procurement routes, and the inventory has declined. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is rising. The upper - middle stream inventory has decreased. North American import offers are increasing. The inventory accumulation pressure of 01 contract is large, limiting the upside [22]. Methanol Industry The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian loading. The coastal inventory has reached a historical high, the market sentiment is poor, and the price is weak. The domestic supply is at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is weak. The overall valuation is neutral. The market is swinging between high inventory and overseas gas - limit expectations. Attention should be paid to the inventory turning point [30][32]. Crude Oil Industry Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the market focuses on the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the demand is weak. The short - term oil prices are under pressure. Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, with SC resistance at 505 - 510, Brent at 68 - 69, and WTI at 64 - 65. Arbitrage is recommended to be long - spread, and options are recommended to buy put options [40]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 19, compared with the previous day, the prices of some products such as SH2509, SH2601, V2509, and V2601 increased, while the basis and spreads of some products changed [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China ports increased, and the export profit increased significantly. The export profit of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products such as liquid caustic soda in Shandong and PVC total social inventory changed [2]. Urea Industry - **Supply**: The daily and weekly production of urea, and the operating rate of production plants are provided. The supply may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The demand from the autumn fertilizer market and industry is weak, and the export new orders are limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of urea in factories and ports is provided [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, etc. decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene also decreased. The spreads and import profits changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased [13]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene - styrene chain changed [13]. PX - PTA - MEG Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of crude oil, naphtha, MX, etc. decreased. The prices of PX, PTA, and MEG also decreased. The spreads and basis changed [15][17]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Inventory**: No relevant content provided. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 decreased. The basis and spreads changed [22]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP changed [22]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and downstream industries changed [22]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MA2601 and MA2509 changed. The basis and regional spreads changed [30]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of methanol changed [30]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of upstream and downstream industries of methanol changed [30]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil and Product Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC changed. The prices of refined oil products and their spreads also changed [38]. - **Market Analysis**: The oil prices are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance and weakening geopolitical support [40].