智通财经APP获悉，沙特阿美的净债务升至近三年来的最高水平，即使在削减了巨额股息之后，仍给这 家能源巨头的财务状况带来压力。根据周一的一份声明，沙特阿美截至今年第一季度末的净债务较2024 年年底增长了18%，至924亿里亚尔(约合246亿美元)。 此前，高盛中东和北非地区经济学家Farouk Soussa警告称，国际油价持续走低可能导致沙特面临严重的 财政赤字风险。他表示："若布伦特原油价格维持在每桶62美元左右，沙特的财政赤字很可能将从约300 亿至350亿美元飙升至700亿至750亿美元。" 沙特阿美在上周日公布的财报显示，受全球经济不确定性和油价波动影响，第一季度净利润同比下降 4.6%至975亿里亚尔(约合260亿美元);自由现金流为192亿美元，未能覆盖约214亿美元的股息支出。 沙特阿美的负债率从2024年底的4.5%升至3月底的5.3%。尽管与负债率接近20%的其他西方能源巨头相 比，这一比例仍然较低，但若油价持续低迷，这一比例可能会继续上涨。不过，相对较低的杠杆率为沙 特阿美提供了借入更多资金的空间。该公司首席财务官Ziad Al-Murshed在去年11月表示，该公司去年发 行了90亿美元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in downstream refining and polyester sectors while upstream oil and gas sectors continue to perform well [1][20]. Core Insights - Oil prices experienced a decline in Q4 2024 followed by a slight recovery in Q1 2025, with Brent crude averaging $74.0 per barrel in Q4 2024, down 6.0% quarter-on-quarter and 10.7% year-on-year, and $75.0 per barrel in Q1 2025, up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter but down 8.3% year-on-year [1][20]. - The upstream oil and gas sector remains robust, with Q1 2025 revenues reaching CNY 16,413.7 billion, a 5.9% increase quarter-on-quarter despite a 6.8% year-on-year decline, and net profits of CNY 1,058.0 billion, up 63.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][20]. - Downstream refining and chemical sectors are showing signs of recovery, with Q1 2025 revenues of CNY 17,279.3 billion, a 4.9% increase quarter-on-quarter, and net profits of CNY 703.6 billion, up 64.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][20]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - The upstream oil and gas sector continues to maintain high profitability, with Q1 2025 net profit margins at 20.6%, reflecting cost improvements from efficiency measures [1][20]. - The overall revenue for the upstream sector in Q4 2024 was CNY 15,497 billion, down 6.2% year-on-year, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of CNY 16,413.7 billion, down 6.8% year-on-year but up 5.9% quarter-on-quarter [1][20]. Downstream Refining Sector - The downstream refining sector has shown recovery with Q1 2025 revenues of CNY 17,279.3 billion, down 7.3% year-on-year but up 4.9% quarter-on-quarter, and net profits of CNY 703.6 billion, reflecting a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [1][20]. - The gross margin for the refining sector in Q1 2025 was 17.4%, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement despite a quarter-on-quarter decline [1][20]. Price Trends and Margins - The report highlights that the price differentials for various petrochemical products have shown fluctuations, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 seeing changes in margins for products like propylene and acrylic acid [1][10][16]. - The Brent crude oil price is projected to maintain a mid-to-high level in 2025, with expectations of a "U" shaped recovery in oil prices, supporting the overall profitability of oil companies [1][20].

美国能源信息署（EIA）：关于关税税率及其对经济和石油需求增长影响的不确定性增加，导致短期油 价波动加剧。 ...

期货热点追踪 俄罗斯以卢布计价的油价已跌至两年低点，克里姆林宫：油价不是影响俄罗斯国家利益的因素。 相关链接 ...

油价短线小幅拉升，布伦特原油跌幅收窄至1.45%，WTI原油跌幅收窄至1.6%，据报道，克里姆林宫称 普京与特朗普会晤是必要的。 ...

截至4月29日，"三桶油"（中国石化、中国石油、中国海油）已相继披露2025年一季度经营业绩。财报 显示，三家企业实现净利润合计约966.34亿元，但营收均出现不同程度的下滑。 其中，按中国企业会计准则，2025年一季度，中国石油实现营收7531.08亿元，同比下滑7.3%，净利润 468.07亿元，同比增长2.3%。 相比之下，中国石化、中国海油的营收和净利润水平双双下滑。财报显示，2025年一季度，中国海油实 现营收1068.54亿元，同比下滑4.1%；净利润365.63亿元，同比下滑7.9%。中国石化则实现营收7353.56 亿元，同比下滑6.9%；净利润132.64亿元，同比下滑27.6%。 尽管营收下滑，但"三桶油"在2025年一季度的油气当量产量均实现了同比增长。其中，中国石油实现油 气当量产量4.67亿桶，同比增长0.7%；国内油气当量产量4.18亿桶，同比增长1.2%。中国石化实现油气 当量产量130.97百万桶，同比增长1.7%，其中，天然气产量3684.3亿立方英尺，同比增长5.1%。中国海 油实现净产量188.8百万桶油当量，同比增长4.8%。其中，中国净产量130.8百万桶油当量，同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - SK Innovation anticipates significant fluctuations in oil prices, which will depend on the progress of tariff negotiations in the United States [1] Group 1 - The company highlights that the volatility in oil prices is closely linked to geopolitical and economic factors, particularly U.S. trade policies [1] - SK Innovation is monitoring the developments in tariff discussions, as these could have a direct impact on oil supply and demand dynamics [1] - The expectation of price volatility may influence the company's strategic planning and investment decisions moving forward [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of energy - chemical commodities on April 30, 2025, showed price fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to remain volatile in the short term. For example, oil prices declined significantly due to factors such as increased US crude oil inventories and OPEC +'s potential acceleration of production increases. Other commodities like fuel oil, asphalt, and polyester also had their own price movements and influencing factors [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On April 30, WTI June contract closed down $1.63 to $60.42 per barrel, a 2.63% decline; Brent June contract closed down $1.61 to $64.25 per barrel, a 2.44% decline; SC2506 closed at 478.0 yuan per barrel, down 10.1 yuan per barrel, a 2.07% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth. OPEC + members may propose to accelerate production increases in June, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. The market priced in the negative impact of accelerated production increases in advance, causing oil prices to fall. The market is expected to be volatile during the May Day holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On April 30, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.26% at 2,969 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2506 closed down 0.86% at 3,456 yuan per ton. It is expected that the reduction in East - West arbitrage arrivals in May will support the low - sulfur market in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is also supported by the expected improvement in Middle - East summer power - generation demand, but weak procurement demand in April and the arrival of Middle - East supplies at the end of April will put pressure on the market. It is recommended to mainly go long on crack spreads [1]. - **Asphalt**: On April 30, the main asphalt contract BU2506 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.53% at 3,430 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, refinery production in May is expected to increase month - on - month as processing profits recover, especially for local refineries. In terms of demand, the northern market demand is gradually being released, and pre - holiday stockpiling is good, but the terminal project start - up rate is still low, and the sales volume of modified plants has not increased significantly. The short - term absolute price of BU is expected to remain stable, and the previous crack - spread repair strategy can continue to be held, but attention should be paid to the pressure from increased supply [2]. - **Polyester**: On April 30, TA509 closed at 4,440 yuan per ton, down 0.89%; EG2509 closed at 4,187 yuan per ton, down 0.07%. PTA social inventories have been continuously decreasing, and planned maintenance in May is increasing, providing some price support. Ethylene glycol inventories have slightly increased, and due to factors such as postponed maintenance of oil - based units and concentrated arrivals of foreign vessels in April, the monthly de - stocking has narrowed. Downstream demand has some support in the short term, but there is a holiday expectation after the May Day holiday, so the price of ethylene glycol is expected to be volatile [2]. - **Rubber**: On April 30, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14,635 yuan per ton; the main 20 - number rubber contract NR closed down 35 yuan per ton to 12,235 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 135 yuan per ton to 11,225 yuan per ton. As of the week ending April 27, the general trade inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 383,100 tons, an increase of 4,900 tons from the previous week, a 1.30% increase; the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 94,900 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous period, a 0.85% increase. The total inventory increased by 5,700 tons. Rubber supply is progressing well due to good weather, and downstream enterprises will have more holiday days during the May Day holiday than last year, so the fundamentals are weak, and the rubber price is expected to be weakly volatile [3][4]. - **Methanol**: On April 30, the spot price in Taicang was 2,437 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2,155 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $259 - 263 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $337 - 342 per ton. In terms of supply, domestic supply will be stable in the future, and imports will gradually increase, with an expected increase in overall supply. In terms of demand, the maintenance of MTO units has been postponed, and traditional downstream demand changes are relatively limited. It is expected that the total demand in May will remain relatively stable. Overall, supply is expected to increase in May, demand will remain stable, inventory will no longer decrease, and the support for spot prices will weaken, with the basis expected to decline [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On April 30, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was between 7,200 - 7,340 yuan per ton. In terms of profits, the gross profit of oil - based PP was 54.14 yuan per ton, the gross profit of coal - based PP production was 795.6 yuan per ton, the gross profit of methanol - based PP production was 936.67 yuan per ton, the gross profit of propane - dehydrogenated PP production was - 868.35 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of externally - purchased propylene - based PP production was - 99.67 yuan per ton. For polyethylene, the mainstream price of HDPE was 7,864 yuan per ton, the mainstream price of LDPE was 8,387 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of LLDPE was 7,828 yuan per ton. The gross profit of oil - based polyethylene was - 125 yuan per ton, and the gross profit of coal - based polyethylene was 1,158 yuan per ton. May is the off - season for demand, and downstream enterprise start - up rates will slow down. The light - hydrocarbon production route is greatly affected by import tariffs, and production is expected to decline to some extent. Downstream inventory levels are not high, and rigid demand provides some price support, but due to the high supply level in the past five years, the price increase space is limited, and polyolefin futures are expected to remain narrowly volatile [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On April 30, the market price of PVC in East - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,720 - 4,860 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,200 yuan per ton. The market price in North - China was weakly adjusted, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,740 - 4,820 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,950 - 5,150 yuan per ton. The market price in South - China was moderately weak, with the price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material between 4,830 - 4,950 yuan per ton and the price of ethylene - based material between 4,980 - 5,050 yuan per ton. Real - estate construction will enter the off - season, which will reduce the demand for PVC downstream pipes and profiles, and the start - up rate will decline slightly. Exports may also decline as India's BIS certification implementation time approaches. Overall, the PVC fundamentals will be loose in May, inventory pressure will increase, the spot price will be relatively weak, and although the main contract V2509 has peak - season expectations, its upward space is limited due to weak spot prices, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile, with the basis weakening [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties on April 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the historical quantile of the latest basis rate, as well as the price changes of spot and futures prices and basis changes [7]. 3.3 Market News - API data showed that as of the week ending April 25, US API crude oil inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 674,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels. Analysts predicted a further increase of 500,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories, the fifth consecutive week of inventory growth [9]. - OPEC + sources revealed that multiple members may propose to accelerate production increases in June. Kazakhstan's crude oil exports in Q1 increased by 7% year - on - year, weakening the implementation of production - cut agreements. Analysts believe that OPEC +'s proposal to increase production is a bad timing choice in the current weak market demand environment [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., to show the price trends of these varieties over the years [11]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., to reflect the relationship between spot and futures prices [25]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including spreads between different contract months, to help analyze the price differences between different contracts [37]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical commodities, such as the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, etc., to analyze the price relationships between different varieties [55]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of some energy - chemical varieties, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc., to reflect the profitability of these varieties [63]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research. She is a master from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won the "Outstanding Analyst" awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022, and the Best Industrial Product Analysts awards from the Futures Daily in 2023 and 2024. She has more than ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research, serves many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises, and has obtained the senior analyst qualification from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. She is also a regular commentator for media such as First Financial and Futures Daily [69]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She holds a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won the Outstanding Energy - Chemical Analyst Awards from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2022 and 2023, and the Best Industrial Product Analyst titles from the Futures Daily in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Her team has won the Excellent Industrial Service Team Awards from the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in 2021 and 2022. She has in - depth research on the energy industry chain and is often interviewed by media such as CCTV Finance and 21st Century Business Herald [70]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She is a master in finance. She has won the "New - Star Analyst" award from the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2023, the Excellent Author award from China Mold Information magazine in 2023, and the "Best Industrial Product Futures Analyst" title from the Futures Daily in 2024. Her team has won the Best Energy - Chemical Industry Futures Research Team Award from the Futures Daily in 2024. She is mainly engaged in the research of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, bottle chips and other futures varieties, and is good at data analysis [71]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC. He holds a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), is an intermediate economist, has many years of experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading, and has passed the CFA Level III exam [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [5]. Core Insights - OPEC+ production policies and U.S. economic policies will continue to influence oil prices in the short term. Recent statements from Kazakhstan's new energy minister and OPEC+ members regarding potential production increases have led to market concerns about supply [1][9]. - As of April 25, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.87 per barrel, down 1.60% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $63.02 per barrel, down 2.57% week-on-week [2][10]. - U.S. crude oil production remains stable at 13.46 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput increasing to 15.89 million barrels per day, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 330,000 barrels [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the current supply-demand dynamics in the oil market are consistent with previous predictions, indicating a price range above $60 per barrel [1][9]. Price Trends - The dollar index rose to 99.57, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.34 percentage points. Meanwhile, natural gas prices have also seen a decline, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at $2.96 per million British thermal units, down 8.74% week-on-week [2][10][47]. Company Performance - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable production growth and low cost per barrel, such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from high dividend yields and improved valuations [4][12]. - Key company earnings forecasts indicate that CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 9, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan with a PE ratio of 9 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report notes an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, with strategic reserves at 397.48 million barrels, up 470,000 barrels week-on-week. Conversely, gasoline inventories decreased by 448,000 barrels [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment themes: focusing on oil companies with strong earnings certainty and high dividends, and those in the natural gas sector that are in a growth phase, such as New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum [4][12].

贝克休斯：持续的不确定性以及近期油价的波动对下半年美国陆上油气开发活动可能构成下行风险。 ...