Domestic News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strict legal punishment for market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering in the financial sector [2] - As of the second quarter of this year, China's private enterprises have experienced 21 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth in imports and exports, with a sustained leading growth rate [2] - Preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China indicate that the cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first half of 2025 is 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method [2] - Recent trade talks in Geneva and London have shown positive progress, with a rebound in China-US trade; the import and export value in June increased from less than 300 billion yuan in May to over 350 billion yuan, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline [2] - As of the end of June, the broad money (M2) balance is 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%; the narrow money (M1) balance is 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; and the currency in circulation (M0) balance is 13.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% [2] International News - The Indian Trade Minister reports that trade negotiations between India and the US are progressing rapidly [3] - Brazil plans to request the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days, while also announcing reciprocal measures regarding US tariffs [4] - The General Administration of Customs of China will implement zero tariffs for 53 African countries that have established diplomatic relations [5] - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China reports that the basic medical insurance coverage rate remains stable at over 95% [5] - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China states that China does not seek to gain international competitive advantages through currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve's Harker indicates that there is currently no urgent need for interest rate cuts [6] - The EU trade chief plans to meet with US counterparts to discuss the current situation [6]

Key Points - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 113.95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] - The net cash injection in the first half of the year amounted to 363.3 billion yuan [1] - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - As of the end of June, the total social financing stock was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [1] - The balance of RMB loans reached 268.56 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - The balance of RMB deposits was 320.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [1] Trade and Economic Relations - The General Administration of Customs reported that China's total goods trade import and export value for the first half of the year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - Exports accounted for 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 2.7% [2] - In June, all categories of trade (imports, exports, and total trade) achieved positive year-on-year growth, with accelerating growth rates [2] - The Deputy Director of the General Administration of Customs emphasized the importance of dialogue and cooperation in Sino-U.S. economic relations, advocating for a fair and open global trade system [2] Corporate Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation approved the acquisition of shares in Ansi Technology by New Thinking Technology with additional restrictive conditions due to potential competition concerns in the optical software and EDA software markets [3] - The approval includes obligations for the parties involved to divest certain business segments related to optical solutions and power analysis software [3] Healthcare Sector - The National Healthcare Security Administration released a report indicating that by the end of 2024, approximately 1.327 billion people will be covered by basic medical insurance in China, maintaining a coverage rate of over 95% [3] - The total income of the national basic medical insurance fund for 2024 is projected to be 34,913.37 billion yuan, with total expenditures of 29,764.03 billion yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 226.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan into the market after accounting for 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Market Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) showed a slight increase, with overnight Shibor rising by 8.20 basis points to 1.4150%, 7-day Shibor up by 4.00 basis points to 1.5150%, and 14-day Shibor increasing by 2.10 basis points to 1.5350% [2][3]. - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight rates rose slightly above 1.4%, with DR001 and R001 weighted average rates increasing by 8.1 basis points and 8.0 basis points, respectively, to 1.424% and 1.4837% [4]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding environment on July 14 was characterized as balanced but slightly tight, with increased borrowing demand from banking institutions compared to the previous week. Overnight rates for collateralized deposits were around 1.50%, while 7-day rates were near 1.53% [10]. - By the end of the day, the overnight collateralized deposit rates stabilized around 1.55%, with 7-day rates climbing to between 1.55% and 1.58% [10]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - On July 14, there were 96 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 177.94 billion yuan. The trading sentiment was less active than expected due to tax periods and market expectations [11]. - The secondary market for certificates of deposit maintained an upward trend, with the 1-year large bank deposit rate stabilizing around 1.6375% by the end of the day [11]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Financing - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 330.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year [13]. - The total social financing scale for the first half of 2025 reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [13].

【大河财立方 记者 杨萨】7月14日，央行发布2025年上半年金融统计数据报告。总体上看，6月新增信 贷和新增社融均实现同比多增，好于市场预期。 数据显示，2025年6月新增人民币贷款2.24万亿元，同比多增1100亿元；6月新增社会融资规模为41993 亿元，同比多增9008亿元；6月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.3%，增速比上月末高0.4个百分点；狭 义货币（M1）同比增长4.6%，增速较上月末高2.3个百分点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，5月降息降准落地，6月央行持续实施中期流动性净投放，企业和居 民融资成本下行，信贷可获得性改善，加之政府债券处于发行高峰期，拉动社融数据走高。另外，当月 票据冲量现象明显缓解，企业短贷同比大幅多增，信贷结构也有所改善。 6月末人民币各项贷款同比增长7.1% 中国人民银行调查统计司司长闫先东在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年以来，央行实施好适度宽松的货 币政策，强化逆周期调节，运用多种货币政策工具组合，服务实体经济高质量发展。信贷总量保持平稳 增长。 上半年，人民币各项贷款新增12.92万亿元。6月末，金融机构人民币各项贷款余额为268.56万亿元，同 比增长7.1% ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for the first half of 2025 indicates a reasonable growth in social financing and broad money supply (M2), supporting the real economy effectively. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the positive impact of monetary policy on the economy [1][4][9]. Financial Data Summary - As of June 2025, the social financing scale increased by 8.9% year-on-year, with a total of 430.22 trillion yuan, marking a 22.83 trillion yuan increase in the first half of the year, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the previous year [5][6]. - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in government bond issuance contributing to this growth [4][6]. - The narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in corporate deposits [4][5]. Credit Growth and Structure - The total balance of RMB loans was 268.56 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, and new loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan [7][8]. - Corporate loans accounted for 89.5% of the new loans, with significant increases in both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans, indicating a stable funding source for the real economy [7][8]. - The increase in medium-to-long-term loans for enterprises in June ended a four-month decline, driven by various supportive financial measures [8]. Policy Implementation and Outlook - The PBOC's monetary policy has been characterized as moderately loose, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting the real economy [9][10]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment [9][10]. - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and increased government bond issuance in the second half of the year [10][11].

《中国经营报》记者注意到，上半年，企业短期贷款延续多增的亮点。从企业部门看，企（事）业单位 新增贷款11.57万亿元，同比多增5700亿元。短期、中长期贷款分别多增1.19万亿元、少增9100亿元，票 据融资同比多增2976亿元。 中国银行研究院研究员梁斯认为，企业短期贷款和票据融资多增，主要与外部环境复杂多变、企业预防 性需求上升有关。而中长期贷款少增与地方政府债务置换加速，平台公司集中偿还中长期贷款有关。 社融方面，上半年，政府债券净融资7.66万亿元，同比多增4.32万亿元；金融机构对实体经济发放的人 民币贷款增加12.74万亿元，同比多增2796亿元。 梁斯预计，2025年第三季度政府债券发行规模将继续保持在较高水平，这将对社融带来支撑。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 7月14日，央行发布金融数据显示，上半年人民币贷款增加12.92万亿元；2025年上半年社会融资规模增 量累计为22.83万亿元，比上年同期多4.74万亿元；6月末M2同比增长8.3%，比上月末上升0.4个百分 点，为去年4月以来新高。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，上半年信贷呈现"总量增长、结构优化"特征。具体来看，在积极的财 政政策提 ...

Monetary Supply - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 113.95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the highest growth since May 2023 [1] - The net cash injection in the first half of the year amounted to 363.3 billion yuan, indicating a stable liquidity environment [1] Credit Growth - In June, new RMB loans totaled 2.24 trillion yuan, significantly increasing by 1.62 trillion yuan month-on-month and 110 billion yuan year-on-year, stabilizing the loan balance growth rate at 7.1% [2] - For the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan, with corporate loans showing a recovery in growth [2] - The increase in corporate short-term loans by 4.9 billion yuan and the end of a four-month decline in medium to long-term loans indicate an improvement in credit structure [2] Social Financing - In June, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.91 trillion yuan and a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, pushing the social financing stock growth rate to 8.9% [3] - The growth in social financing was primarily driven by government bond financing, which increased by 503.2 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - The continuous year-on-year increase in social financing for seven consecutive months reflects the ongoing support of financial policies for the real economy, with expectations for further growth in July [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and promoting reasonable growth in money and credit supply [1][2][5]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has introduced a series of monetary and credit policies, including a package of 10 measures announced on May 7, aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting the economy [6][7]. - As of the end of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with increases of 0.8 and 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Support for the Real Economy - In the first half of the year, the incremental social financing scale reached 22.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating that the financial system is effectively meeting the funding needs of the real economy [2][5]. - The PBOC emphasizes the need for time to observe the effects of implemented monetary policies and will continue to assess their transmission and effectiveness [2][5]. Focus Areas for Future Policies - The PBOC plans to maintain a balance between supporting the real economy and ensuring the health of the financial system, with a focus on sectors such as technology innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [9][10]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of financial services to the real economy by improving the policy framework and ensuring that monetary policy tools are effectively utilized [9][10]. Currency Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC is committed to maintaining the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate while preventing excessive fluctuations, with a focus on stabilizing the currency at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. - Recent trends show that the RMB has remained stable against the USD, with fluctuations managed effectively since early April [10][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in the trade situation. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their first - half profits. The effects of loose monetary policies are evident, and the improvement in external demand has led to positive GDP expectations. The market anticipates positive second - quarter economic data, and the fundamental recovery supports the stock market. As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may pre - arrange, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2509）最新价3985.8，环比下降13.0；IF次主力合约（2507）最新价4009.0，环比下降11.6；IH主力合约（2509）最新价2747.4，环比下降12.8；IH次主力合约（2507）最新价2751.8，环比下降23.2；IC主力合约（2509）最新价5897.6，环比下降18.0；IC次主力合约（2507）最新价6008.4，环比下降19.0；IM主力合约（2509）最新价6302.2，环比下降13.0；IM次主力合约（2507）最新价6442.2，环比下降13.0 [2] - IC - IF当月合约价差1257.2，环比下降9.0；IF - IH当月合约价差1999.4，环比下降2.8；IC - IH当月合约价差3256.6，环比下降11.8；IM - IC当月合约价差433.8，环比下降5.0；IM - IH当月合约价差3690.4，环比下降7.8；IM - IF当月合约价差2433.2，环比下降2.0 [2] - IF下季 - 当月为 - 23.2，环比下降4.8；IF当季 - 当月为 - 53.8，环比下降1.4；IH下季 - 当月为 - 4.4，环比下降8.2；IH当季 - 当月为 - 1.8，环比上升0.2；IC下季 - 当月为 - 110.8，环比下降4.8；IC当季 - 当月为 - 233.8，环比下降7.0；IM下季 - 当月为 - 140.0，环比下降4.6；IM当季 - 当月为 - 321.4，环比下降4.6 [2] - IF前20名净持仓为 - 29,007.00，环比下降735.0；IH前20名净持仓环比上升2211.0；IC前20名净持仓为 - 11,851.00，环比上升885.0；IM前20名净持仓环比上升1903.0 [2] - IF主力合约基差环比上升2.9；IH主力合约基差环比上升1.0；IC主力合约基差环比下降6.2；IM主力合约基差环比上升1.2 [2] b. Market Sentiment Data - A股成交额（日）为14,809.22亿元，环比上升20.81；两融余额（前一交易日）为18,757.94亿元，环比下降2556.88；逆回购（到期量，操作量）为2455.04亿元，环比上升432.40；北向成交合计（前一交易日）为 - 1065.0亿元，环比上升2262.0；MLF（续作量，净投放）为 - 405.03亿元；主力资金（昨日，今日）为 - 119.66亿元 [2] - Shibor（日）为1.415%，环比上升0.082；上涨股票比例（日）为58.69%，环比上升4.03；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率环比下降8.00；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2507）为28.80，环比下降0.59；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率环比下降1.20；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2507）为18.40，环比下降0.59；成交量PCR环比上升0.01；沪深300指数20日波动率为8.69%，环比上升13.64；持仓量PCR为74.76%，环比下降0.36 [2] - 技术面：Wind市场强弱分析中，全部A股为5.90，环比上升0.50；资金面为6.00，环比下降0.60 [2] c. Industry News - On July 14, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 6.3%), imports increased by 2.3% (previous value: - 2.1%), and the trade surplus was 8259.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7435.6 billion yuan). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, imports decreased by 2.7%, and the trade surplus was 42125.1 billion yuan. In June, exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), imports increased by 1.1% (previous value: - 3.4%), and the trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars (previous value: 1032.2 billion US dollars). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, imports decreased by 3.9%, and the trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [2] - On July 14, the central bank announced that in the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, 363.3 billion yuan of cash was net - injected [2] - As of 21:00 on July 13, 510 A - share listed companies had released their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, of which 301 were positive, with a positive forecast ratio of about 59.02% [2] - According to data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, foreign capital has increased its holdings of A - shares for two consecutive quarters. As of the end of the second quarter of this year, north - bound funds held 2907 stocks, with a total market value of about 2.29 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of 2024, the market value of north - bound funds' holdings increased by 87.1 billion yuan; compared with the first quarter of 2025, it increased by more than 50 billion yuan [2] d. Market Performance - A - share major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index was slightly stronger in a volatile manner, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were slightly weaker. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Most industry sectors rose, with the machinery and equipment sector leading the gains and the real estate sector leading the losses [2] e. Upcoming Key Data - July 15, 10:00: China's June fixed - asset investment, industrial added value of large - scale industries, total retail sales of consumer goods, and unemployment rate; second - quarter GDP - July 15, 20:30: US June CPI and core CPI - July 16, 20:30: US June PPI and core PPI - July 17, 20:30: US June import price index, retail sales, and core retail sales [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for the first half of 2025 indicates a solid growth in social financing and loans, reflecting the effectiveness of monetary policy in supporting the real economy [2][6]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loan Growth - As of the end of June, the cumulative increase in social financing reached 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]. - The new RMB loans amounted to 12.92 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of nearly 2.24 trillion yuan in June [1][6]. - The stock of social financing grew by 8.9% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.3% [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to utilize both total and structural monetary policy tools to support the economy, focusing on technology innovation and consumption [2][7]. - The PBOC has implemented 12 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 9 interest rate reductions since 2020, leading to a significant decrease in loan market rates [8]. - The current monetary policy is described as "moderately loose," with financial growth rates outpacing economic growth [9][12]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Financing - Government bond net financing was a major driver of social financing growth, with a cumulative net financing of 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with the pace of issuance in 2023 outpacing that of the previous year by approximately 10 to 15 percentage points [3]. Group 4: Loan Composition and Economic Activity - Corporate loans accounted for 89.5% of the total new loans, with a significant increase in medium to long-term loans, indicating stable financial support for the real economy [6]. - Household loans increased by 1.17 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing support for individual businesses and small enterprises [6]. - Seasonal consumer demand, particularly during promotional events like "618," has contributed to the increase in credit demand [6].