近期，南非财政状况出现利好。11月，南非财政部长埃诺赫·戈东瓜纳发布中期预算报告称政府收入好 于预期。同期，标普全球评级公司二十年来首次上调南非信用评级展望，增强了外界对南非经济管理的 信心。 然而，分析人士提醒，南非经济仍处于"低增长"。当地媒体网站"ENCA"刊文指，0.5%的季度增速虽体 现经济韧性，但不足以改善就业、收入和生活水平等关键指标。南非近年来人口增长约1.1%–1.3%，持 续快于经济增速，这意味着人均收入实际下降。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社约翰内斯堡12月2日电 (记者孙翔)南非统计局2日发布数据，2025年第三季度国内生产总值(GDP) 环比增长0.5%。虽低于第二季度修正后的0.9%，仍是南非连续第四个季度实现经济扩张。 统计数据显示，在生产(供给)侧十个行业中，有九个在三季度实现增长，其中采矿业和农业增速显著， 分别增长2.3%和1.1%。电力、天然气和供水行业产出下降2.5%，成为唯一拖累整体增长的板块。 南非统计局副总干事乔·德比尔(Joe de Beer)表示，本季度"增长较为广泛"，多个行业同步改善反映出经 济基础有所巩固。一个积极信号是，固定资本形成总额增长1 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Korea's economy experienced its fastest growth in nearly four years in the third quarter, driven by strong exports and improved private consumption [1][3]. Economic Growth - The preliminary statistics from the Bank of Korea indicate a quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 1.3% in Q3, surpassing previous forecasts by 0.1 percentage points [1][3]. - This growth rate is the highest since Q4 2021, when the economy grew by 1.6%, and it is an acceleration from the 0.7% growth in Q2 [1][3]. Year-on-Year Comparison - Compared to the same period last year, the economy grew by 1.8% in Q3, a significant rebound from the 0.6% growth in Q2 [2][4]. - The first quarter of this year saw an unexpected contraction of 0.2% in GDP, attributed to a domestic political crisis and increased uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, which negatively impacted consumer confidence and exports [2][4]. Government Stimulus and Future Outlook - Following government stimulus measures and strong export performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector, the South Korean economy regained momentum [5]. - The Bank of Korea has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, with an expected growth of 1.8% in 2026 [5].

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Benset stated that next year will be the year of the real economy [2][4] - Benset mentioned that a significant tax refund will be observed in the first quarter of 2026 [2][4] - He also indicated that the U.S. will experience "real wage growth" and "low-inflation growth" [2][4] - Benset predicts that the U.S. economy will recover to a growth rate of 4% by 2026 [2][4]

标题：香港金融管理局跟随美联储维持利率不变：稳定金融市场，支持经济增长 正文： 作为国际金融中心，香港在全球金融体系中扮演着重要角色。金管局通过与美联储等全球主要央行的紧 密合作，不断提升香港在全球金融市场的影响力。在跨境金融合作方面，金管局将继续加强与其他国家 和地区的沟通与合作，共同应对全球金融挑战。 香港金融管理局（金管局）于近日宣布维持基准利率不变，与美联储的决策保持一致，旨在维护香港金 融市场的稳定，并继续支持香港的经济增长。 四、强调风险管理，确保金融系统稳健运行 一、跟随美联储决策，维护金融市场稳定 在维持利率不变的同时，金管局强调风险管理的重要性。金管局将继续加强对金融机构的监管，确保金 融系统的稳健运行。此外，金管局还将密切关注全球经济和金融市场的动态，及时应对潜在风险。 在全球经济复杂多变的背景下，美联储的决策对全球金融市场产生重要影响。香港金融管理局作为香港 的金融监管机构，紧密关注全球经济发展态势及主要央行的货币政策。此次跟随美联储维持利率不变， 旨在保持香港金融市场的稳定，并防范潜在风险。 五、未来货币政策展望 二、维持低利率环境，支持经济增长与金融发展 金管局此次维持利率不变，旨在 ...

Economic Overview - Estonia's GDP reached €10.49 billion in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9% and remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [1] - Private consumption decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, while government consumption increased by 3.4%, marking the fastest growth since Q2 2024 [1] - Overall investment fell by 0.7% year-on-year, with government investment rising by 8.8% and corporate investment declining significantly by 27.3% [1] - Household investment in housing grew by 12.1% year-on-year [1] Trade Performance - External trade continued to grow, with goods and services exports increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and imports rising by 5.6% [1] - Net exports achieved positive growth for the second consecutive quarter [1] Sector Performance - The energy sector experienced the highest value-added growth at 21.5% year-on-year [1] - Manufacturing sector value-added grew by 7.9% year-on-year [1] - The real estate sector saw a value-added increase of 4.4% year-on-year [1] - The accommodation and food services sector faced the largest decline in value-added, down by 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Transportation sector value-added decreased by 6.9% year-on-year [1] - Wholesale and retail trade sector value-added also fell by 6.9% year-on-year [1] - Health and social work sector value-added declined by 4.5% year-on-year [1]

研究报告 Research Report 2 Dec 2025 东南亚必需消费 & 可选消费 Southeast Asia Staples & Discretionary 东南亚消费行业 10 月跟踪报告：通胀温和且分化，消费需求结构性改善 Inflation Moderate and Differentiated; Consumption Structurally Improving [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 市盈率 P/E 股票名称 评级 目标价 PE(2025E) PE(2026E) 资料来源： Factset, HTI Related Reports 东南亚消费行业 9 月跟踪报告：区域经济延续复苏，消费板块普遍跑赢指 数 Regional economies recovered, and consumption beat the index. (3 Nov 2025) 80 100 120 140 160 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 HAI Southeast Asia Staples ...

标题：美联储维持利率不变，预示未来可能降息三次：美国经济展望与影响分析 正文： 当地时间近日，美联储宣布维持利率不变的决定，同时暗示未来可能采取更为宽松的货币政策，预计将 在XXXX年降息三次。这一决策对于全球经济以及金融市场产生重要影响，以下是对此决策的分析与展 望。 四、全球经济影响分析 美联储的决策将对全球经济产生重要影响。一方面，维持利率稳定有助于稳定全球金融市场；另一方 面，未来可能的降息将降低全球融资成本，促进全球经济增长。此外，美联储的决策还将对其他国家和 地区的货币政策产生影响。 五、金融市场反应及建议 美联储的决策引起了金融市场的广泛关注。投资者应关注全球经济形势的变化以及美联储的政策动向， 以便做出合理的投资决策。此外，投资者还应关注通胀和就业市场的动态，以评估未来的经济环境。建 议投资者保持谨慎的投资态度，分散投资风险，关注全球经济形势和政策动向。 一、美联储决策背景 近期，美联储在考虑全球及美国经济形势后，决定维持利率不变。在全球经济形势复杂多变的背景下， 美联储希望通过维持利率稳定来支持经济增长，同时也在密切关注通胀和就业市场的动态。 二、降息预期与原因 尽管美联储维持利率不变，但此 ...

文 | 新浪财经北美站站长 康路 当华尔街开始重新定价美国未来的利率路径时，一个名字频繁出现在市场的推演之中：凯文 ·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）。从学术派经济学者，到白宫经济顾问委员会主席，再到特朗 普第二任期的国家经济委员会（NEC）主任，他在过去十年里逐步从"温和的右倾经济学 者"成长为"特朗普最可信任的经济盟友"。 而当美联储面临数十年来最受关注的主席更替时，哈塞特的政治忠诚、政策理念与市场立 场，使他成为能够深刻重塑全球利率周期、美元方向与加密货币等风险资产的关键人物。 哈塞特在11月12日在华盛顿经济俱乐部演讲为关税等经济政策辩护 谜底预计将在圣诞节揭晓。 美国博彩网站Kalshi上，特朗普提名哈塞特为美联储主席的概率已飙升至80%，高于一周 前的40%。上周末，美国总统特朗普在空军一号上对媒体表示，已经决定了谁将接替美联 储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。"我知道我会选谁，是的。" 美国博彩网站显示，押注哈塞特被提名的概率大幅上升 特朗普的政治盟友 凯文·哈塞特在过去十年里完成了显著的身份转变。他最初被认为是一位温和的右倾经济学 者，专注研究税收、资本市场和长期增长。他曾在美联储任职，也曾在哥伦比亚 ...

《信使邮报》12月2日报道，澳大利亚与新西兰银行(ANZ)太平洋地区经济学家基什蒂.森指出，巴新政 府需推动Papua LNG项目上线，以拯救国家经济。 关于2026年的预测，基什蒂.森指出，政府计划2026年名义GDP增长9.2%,以实现280亿美元收入目标。 但这280亿美元收入，并不是指银行里的钱，而是从税收和经济增长中获取的收入。基什蒂.森表示，大 型资源项目，特别是Papua LNG项目将于2026年4月启动，有望助力实现经济增长9.2%的目标，Papua LNG项目的启动对于实现目标至关重要。 关于2026年预算，基什蒂.森认为，巴新政府在2022年提出10年预算修复计划，并明确相关措施，修复 计划指出2026年将是预算赤字最后一年，2027年政府将实现预算盈余，并持续保持到2028年偿清所有公 共部门债务，此后盈余将被存入主权财富基金。巴新政府坚持将2026年的赤字控制在160亿基那，约等 于名义GDP的1%，以在2027年实现预算盈余。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Singapore's economic growth is expected to slow down from 4.0% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 due to uncertainties in global tariff policies and fluctuations in the technology cycle [1] - Singapore's economy, being highly export-oriented, will face challenges from "2Ts": tariffs and the tech cycle, which will suppress trade-related sectors [1] - Despite external headwinds, Singapore's economy is characterized by "prudent resilience," supported by two internal engines: the modern services sector and a booming construction industry [1] Group 2 - The modern services sector, which includes finance, information communication, and professional services, will continue to act as an economic buffer due to Singapore's status as a global business hub and the benefits of digital transformation [1] - The construction industry is expected to be a growth highlight in 2026, driven by major infrastructure projects such as Changi Airport Terminal 5, Tuas Port, North-South Corridor, and integrated resort expansions [1] Group 3 - In terms of inflation and monetary policy, inflation in Singapore is expected to bottom out and rebound moderately, with overall inflation and core inflation projected at 1.2% and 1.0% respectively for 2026 [2] - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is anticipated to maintain current monetary policy parameters in 2026 to retain flexibility in responding to fluctuations [2] Group 4 - The report predicts that the USD/SGD exchange rate will fluctuate between 1.25 and 1.30 in 2026 [3] - The Singapore government is updating its economic blueprint through the "Economic Strategy Review" to ensure long-term economic competitiveness amid increasing global economic fragmentation [3]