Core Viewpoint - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Nakaso Hiroshi, emphasizes the need for the Bank of Japan to be cautious about inflation risks and suggests that there is still room for further interest rate hikes [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Nakaso highlights strong wage growth, the ability of companies to pass on costs, and rising inflation expectations as indicators that price pressures in Japan may be greater than policymakers anticipate [1] - He disagrees with the Bank of Japan officials' assessment that the risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the downside, asserting that there are upward risks to inflation, particularly due to labor shortages potentially leading to significant wage increases next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misconceptions surrounding government bond funds, emphasizing that they are not risk-free despite being perceived as safe assets due to government backing [1][3]. Group 1: Understanding Government Bond Funds - Government bond funds are specifically designed to invest in government bonds, which are backed by the credit of the state, theoretically presenting a low risk of default [1]. - In 2022, China's government bond issuance exceeded 7 trillion yuan, with a significant portion entering the market through funds, highlighting their role as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [1]. Group 2: Risks Associated with Government Bond Funds - **Interest Rate Risk**: The relationship between bond prices and interest rates is crucial; when market interest rates rise, existing bonds lose value, as seen in the 12% average decline of U.S. government bond funds in 2022 due to consecutive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - **Liquidity Risk**: Government bond funds can be open-ended or closed-ended. Open-ended funds may face forced selling during large redemptions, impacting remaining investors, while closed-ended funds may trade at a discount to net asset value, posing additional risks [6]. - **Inflation Risk**: If a government bond fund yields 3% but inflation is at 4%, the real purchasing power decreases, which can lead to significant losses over long-term investments [7][9]. Group 3: Misconceptions and Investment Strategy - The notion of "zero risk" is misleading; while government bond funds are safer than other investment vehicles, they still carry unique risks that differ from stocks or P2P lending [9]. - Investors should be cautious of funds that use leverage or invest in lower-rated corporate bonds to enhance returns, as these strategies can lead to substantial losses during market downturns [9].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces risks of inflation remaining below the 2% target, prompting a need for continued supportive monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The ECB has lowered interest rates by 200 basis points to a neutral level of 2% since June of the previous year, but the economic growth outlook remains bleak [2] - The ECB predicts inflation will stay below the target for 18 months starting from Q3 2025, with a return to the 2% target not expected until early 2027 [2] Group 2: Currency Impact - The euro has appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.1741, with a 0.28% increase, which may further suppress inflation and pressure economic growth [1][2] - The euro is currently in an overbought state but maintains a long-term bullish trend, with the weekly chart showing higher highs and higher lows [2] Group 3: Risks and Support - Downside risks include cheap imports from China, low energy prices, lack of tariff retaliation, a strong euro, and slowing wage growth, leading to limited upside risks overall [2] - The ECB's stance is supported by Germany's significant fiscal expansion plans, which are expected to provide a substantial boost to the economy [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report Core Views - Trump plans to send new tariff rate notices (10% - 70%) to countries without trade agreements from August 1st, likely a weaker "aftershock" compared to April [6] - In the long - term bullish pattern of stock index futures, pay attention to internal and external marginal drivers. The market may rise in a slightly volatile way, and its continuation depends on internal and external factors [7][8] - Short - term butadiene rubber is weak, with limited downward space, and the medium - term fundamentals are under increasing pressure [9] - In the short term, the contradiction in the live pig market is not obvious, but the sentiment in the far - end market is strengthening [11] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Gold and Silver - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected. Gold has a trend strength of - 1 [19][23] - Silver: Continues to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [19][23] 2. Copper - Global copper inventories are increasing, and the price is oscillating. The trend strength is 0 [25][27] 3. Zinc - Zinc prices are moving sideways. The trend strength is 0 [28] 4. Lead - Supported by the expectation of short - term consumption peak season. The trend strength is 1 [30][31] 5. Tin - Driven by the macro - environment, tin prices are rising. The trend strength is 0 [33][36] 6. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The upward elasticity of nickel prices is limited, and prices are under pressure at low levels. Stainless steel inventories are slightly digested, and steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The trend strength of both is 0 [37][38][43] 7. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure at the upper level. The trend strength is - 1 [44][47] 8. Polysilicon - Pay attention to policy changes. The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1 [48][50] 9. Iron Ore - Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is - 1 [51] 10. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [53][54][56] 11. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is - 1 [57][60] 12. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke's first - round price increase is brewing, and both are in wide - range oscillations. The trend strength of both is 0 [62][64] 13. Steam Coal - Daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [66][69] 14. Logs - The main contract is switching, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [70]

当投资者普遍押注关税不会升级时，摩根士丹利却在思考一个关键问题：如果7月9日的结果与预期不 符，市场将面临怎样的冲击？ 央视新闻指出，7月9日（本周三）是美国与各国谈判贸易协议的截止日期。据追风交易台消息，摩根士 丹利全球固定收益和主题研究主管Michael Zezas发布研报警示，尽管市场普遍预期美国关税政策不会进 一步升级，但7月9日关税暂停期到期这一关键节点仍存在多种可能性，投资者需要为不同情形做好准 备。 该行的基本预期是美国有效关税水平仅会适度上升，但会伴随一些新的波动，并分析了三种可能的情 形。 基本情形：延期策略 摩根士丹利认为最可能的情况是，白宫将以双边谈判取得了"进展"为由，延长对大多数主要贸易伙伴 的"对等关税"暂停期，同时宣布与某些贸易伙伴(包括越南)达成高层协议，并可能在未来某个日期对其 他国家提高关税税率。 "对等关税"暂停期结束，8月1日又要开始支付新关税？ 随着截止日期的临近，据环球时报5日报道，美国总统特朗普表示，美政府7月4日起将向尚未达成贸易 协议的国家发出新关税税率的通知，税率区间为10%至70%，并计划从8月1日起正式实施。这一税率上 限（70%）远高于其4月份宣布的5 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, raising the deficit rate by 3-4 percentage points compared to 2010-2019 levels[2] - The average deficit rate over the next decade is projected to reach 6.4%, potentially increasing to 6.7% if certain tax cuts are extended beyond 2028[2][3] - The bill's implementation may lead to a fiscal deficit of approximately 7% in 2026, with short-term growth support for Q4 2025 and 2026[1][3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation - The bill is anticipated to provide short-term economic growth support, but its long-term effectiveness is expected to diminish, potentially exacerbating inflation[3][4] - Independent institutions estimate that the bill will only contribute an additional 0.4% to U.S. GDP over the next decade, significantly lower than the White House's estimate of 2.4%-2.7%[3] Group 3: Social and Political Consequences - The bill may worsen income and welfare distribution in the U.S., intensifying political polarization, as high-income individuals and corporations benefit more from tax cuts[5] - The average annual tax cut for the wealthiest families is projected to be $12,000, while the poorest families may face a net loss of $1,600 annually[5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The bill could further undermine U.S. debt sustainability, with total government debt expected to rise from 124% of GDP[4] - The vision of reducing the deficit post-2029 is considered overly optimistic, with potential increases in interest costs and lower-than-expected GDP growth[4]

Group 1 - Global investors are responding with a calm attitude towards the new tariffs announced by President Trump, with various moderate scenarios already priced in by the market [1][2] - The new tariff rates will range from 10% to 70%, with the upper limit significantly higher than the previously announced 50% [1][2] - The market's reaction to tariff news has become more composed, as investors believe the deadline has enough "flexibility" and that the worst-case scenarios are no longer a concern [1][2] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding tariff levels and effective dates continues, with only limited agreements reached with the UK and a principle agreement with Vietnam [2] - The EU aims to reach an agreement by July 9, but if negotiations fail, it will take countermeasures to protect its economy [2] - Japan is prepared to defend its interests firmly and is anticipating various possible outcomes in the tariff negotiations [2] Group 3 - The recent tax and spending bill signed into law has led to concerns about increasing the US debt by over $3 trillion, impacting bond investors [3] - Tariff-related inflation risks are putting pressure on US Treasury bonds and the dollar, affecting Federal Reserve policy expectations [3] - The dollar index has experienced its worst performance since 1973, dropping approximately 11% this year, with a 6.6% decline since April 2 [3] Group 4 - Market expectations are adjusting to the possibility of tariffs at 35%, 40%, or higher, while a comprehensive 10% tariff is anticipated [5] - There is cautious optimism regarding the outlook for US stocks, with close monitoring of interest rate changes [5]

Group 1: Economic Events and Data Releases - The week of July 7-13 will feature significant economic events, including the end of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension, the BRICS summit in Brazil, and the release of China's June CPI, PPI, and social financing data [3][4][6][8][10][11]. - The BRICS summit will take place from July 6-7 in Rio de Janeiro, focusing on enhancing cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries [8]. - The U.S. will announce new tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% starting August 1, following the expiration of the negotiation period with several countries [6][7]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an increase of 147,000 jobs, surpassing the expected increase of 106,000, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.24% to 4.12% [9]. - Market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in July, with a 75% chance of a cut in September, as the labor market remains robust [9]. Group 3: China Economic Data - China's June CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, with urban prices stable and rural prices down by 0.4% [10]. - The PPI for June decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the industrial sector [10][11]. - Social financing data for May indicated an increase of 2.29 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 620 billion yuan [11]. Group 4: International Economic Reports - The IEA will release its monthly oil market report on July 11, with OPEC+ expected to agree on increasing oil production by approximately 550,000 barrels per day in August [12]. - Germany's June CPI unexpectedly fell to 2%, reaching the European Central Bank's target for the first time in nearly a year, while France's CPI was reported at 0.9% [13]. - The Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 4.25%, with a notable division among policymakers regarding future rate cuts [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending implementation of new tariffs by the U.S. government, with rates potentially reaching as high as 70%, and highlights the responses from various countries, including the EU, Japan, and India, regarding their trade negotiations with the U.S. [1][2][4] Group 1: U.S. Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced that new unilateral tariffs will be communicated to trade partners starting July 4, with an expected implementation date of August 1 [1] - The proposed tariff rates could range from 10% to 70%, with Trump indicating that the final text of the letters detailing these tariffs has been completed [1] - The U.S. has previously imposed tariffs of up to 50% on many trade partners, which has raised concerns about inflation risks in the U.S. economy [2] Group 2: Responses from Trade Partners - The EU has expressed a strong commitment to defending its interests and is prepared to take countermeasures if negotiations with the U.S. fail [6][4] - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of maintaining national interests, particularly in the automotive and agricultural sectors, and stated that Japan will not sacrifice agriculture in trade negotiations [8] - India has drawn two "red lines" in its negotiations with the U.S., focusing on the protection of its agricultural sector and dairy products, and plans to impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on Indian exports [9][11]

来源 | 央视新闻、央视网 本期编辑 金珊 深夜，欧洲多国股市全线下挫！什么情况？ 特朗普签署"大而美"法案 印度拟对美国征收报复性关税 SFC 21君荐读 据央视CCTV4报道， 美国总统 特朗普4日表示，新关税税率将介于10%至70%之间 ，美国彭 博社称，如果实施，这将比特朗普4月宣布的所谓"对等关税"税率更高，增加美国经济的通胀 风险。美国有线电视新闻网称，50%的关税在4月曾导致美国股市陷入熊市区域，美国债券和 美元被大幅抛售，70%的关税将更超这一水平。 据央视新闻此前报道，特朗普当地时间3日表示，将于4日开始向贸易伙伴发函，设定单边关 税税率，并称各国将从8月1日起开始支付新的关税。特朗普称，4日将发出大约"10或12封"信 函，更多信函将在未来几天寄出。 ...