风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 边城浪子1986 目前创新药处于不可证伪阶段 ， 业绩不是第一位 ， 事件驱动更为重要 ， 大概率在未来一段时 间可能还有一定表现机会 ， 后期会不会出现鸡犬升天的现象 ？ 个人觉得还是存在一定概率的 ， 就是存在未来大部分创新药从合理估值到高估的过程 。 四 、 Ai应用 来源：雪球 一 、 低利率下的稳定回报行业 低利率的环境下 ， 一部分资金自然会寻找股息较高的行业进行投资 ， 并且这些行业的股息回报 也成为了部分银行存款和理财的替代选择 。 特别是保险类资金在大幅加仓高股息个股 ， 红利策 略也在市场上越来越受欢迎 。 我个人觉得其中的公用事业 、 电信运营商 、 电力是值得低风险 偏好的投资者持有的 。 个人疑虑比较大的是银行业 ， 因为资产的真实质量存疑 ， 但是如果未来通过通胀或者放水等手 段稀释不良资产 ， 只要这一过程持续够久 ， 银行也可以看作是安全 ， 就看时间的力量能不能 化解这一切了 。 二 、 港股互联网与科技 港股互联网和科技目前估值比较合理 ， 并有一定的向上增速 ， 但是由于巨头的体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the decline in China's liquor production is often misinterpreted, suggesting that while production has decreased from its peak in 2016, it has actually increased by 33.02% compared to 20 years ago, indicating that the industry is not necessarily in decline but rather adjusting to market realities [2][4]. Production Trends - In 2016, China's liquor production peaked at 1,358 million tons, but by 2024, it is projected to drop to 414.5 million tons, a decline of approximately 69.48% [2]. - When comparing the production in 2024 (414.5 million tons) to 20 years prior in 2004 (311.6 million tons), it shows a growth of 33.02%, contradicting the narrative of a declining industry [2][3]. Demand and Consumption - The article highlights that the demand for liquor is limited by human consumption capacity, unlike other beverages that can see increased consumption with lifestyle changes [3]. - The population growth from 1.299 billion in 2004 to 1.408 billion in 2024 (an increase of about 8.4%) indicates that per capita liquor consumption has not significantly decreased [2]. Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in liquor production from 2004 to 2016 was driven by a favorable economic environment post-WTO accession, leading to a proliferation of local liquor brands [4]. - The oversupply and intense competition in the market have led to a decline in production since 2016, with many mid to low-end brands losing market share [4]. Revenue Growth - Despite the decline in production, the total sales revenue of the liquor industry has surged from 61.23 billion in 2004 to 796.384 billion in 2024, a twelvefold increase [4][5]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to rising prices rather than increased consumption, with the sales revenue continuing to grow even as production declines [5]. Monetary Influence - The growth in liquor sales revenue aligns closely with the increase in the money supply (M2), which rose from 25.32 trillion in 2004 to 313.53 trillion in 2024, an increase of 11.38 times [5]. - The article posits that the driving force behind the liquor industry's growth is not public spending or real estate demand, but rather the effects of monetary expansion [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of "Fixed Income +" products as a solution for conservative investors facing low returns from traditional low-risk products and high volatility in the stock market [2][29]. Summary by Sections Concept of "Fixed Income +" - "Fixed Income +" is essentially an asset allocation strategy that combines low-risk fixed income assets, such as bonds, to secure a base return, while also including higher-risk equity assets to enhance returns, all while controlling volatility and drawdown [2][3]. Selection Criteria for "Fixed Income +" Products - The article outlines specific criteria for selecting "Fixed Income +" products, including: - Equity assets should constitute 10% to 20% of net fund assets, with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 30% [2]. - Fixed income assets must make up at least 50% of net fund assets [3]. - A "Double 5 Requirement" is also mentioned, where the maximum drawdown and annualized volatility should not exceed 5% [3]. Featured "Fixed Income +" Products 1. **Guofu Hengrui Bond Fund** - Established on January 25, 2016, it has an average stock allocation of 15.28% and a bond allocation of 80.28% as of Q1 2025 [5][6]. - Cumulative total return of 61.49% and an annualized return of approximately 5.28% as of May 31, 2025, with a maximum drawdown of -3.77% [8]. 2. **Anxin New Trend Fund** - Launched on December 9, 2016, with an average stock allocation of 10.88% and a bond allocation of 98.13% [12]. - Cumulative total return of 54.50% and an annualized return of about 5.27% as of May 31, 2025, with a maximum drawdown of -3.27% [15]. 3. **Zhongou Jintong Fund** - Established on November 17, 2015, with an average stock allocation of 11.90% and a bond allocation of 105.92% [21]. - Cumulative total return of 64.50% and an annualized return of approximately 5.36% as of May 31, 2025, with a maximum drawdown of -3.52% [24]. 4. **Jingshun Changcheng Jingi Shuangli Bond Fund** - Founded on November 13, 2013, with an average stock allocation of 16.63% and a bond allocation of 89.77% [26]. - Cumulative total return of 23.37% and an annualized return of about 4.69% from October 30, 2020, to May 31, 2025, with a maximum drawdown of -3.90% [27]. Investment Strategy and Manager Profiles - Each featured fund is managed by experienced professionals with distinct investment styles, contributing to the overall performance and risk management of the "Fixed Income +" products [10][19][32]. - The article emphasizes the importance of risk control and the need for sustainable and stable returns when investing in "Fixed Income +" products [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity of "Fixed Income +" products as a solution for conservative investors facing low returns from traditional low-risk products and high volatility in the stock market [2][29]. Summary by Sections Concept of "Fixed Income +" - "Fixed Income +" is essentially an asset allocation strategy that combines low-risk fixed income assets, such as bonds, to secure a base return, while also including a moderate allocation to higher-risk equity assets to enhance returns [2][3]. - The typical allocation for equity assets is set between 10% to 20%, with a minimum of 5% and a maximum of 30%, while fixed income assets must constitute at least 50% of the portfolio [2]. Risk Control Measures - A "Double 5 Requirement" is often applied, meaning that both the maximum drawdown and annualized volatility should not exceed 5% [3]. Types of "Fixed Income +" Products - The products that meet the above criteria are primarily found in secondary bond funds and flexible allocation funds, with some inclusion of primary bond funds and mixed bond funds [3]. Featured "Fixed Income +" Products 1. **Guofu Hengrui Bond Fund** - Established on January 25, 2016, it has an average stock allocation of 15.28% and a bond allocation of 80.28% as of Q1 2025 [5][6]. - Cumulative total return as of May 31, 2025, is 61.49%, with an annualized return of approximately 5.28% and a maximum drawdown of -3.77% [8]. 2. **Anxin New Trend Fund** - Launched on December 9, 2016, it has an average stock allocation of 10.88% and a bond allocation of 98.13% as of Q1 2025 [12]. - Cumulative total return as of May 31, 2025, is 54.50%, with an annualized return of about 5.27% and a maximum drawdown of -3.27% [15]. 3. **Zhongou Jintong Fund** - Established on November 17, 2015, it has an average stock allocation of 11.90% and a bond allocation of 105.92% as of Q1 2025 [21]. - Cumulative total return as of May 31, 2025, is 64.50%, with an annualized return of approximately 5.36% and a maximum drawdown of -3.52% [24]. 4. **Jingshun Changcheng Jingi Shuangli Bond Fund** - Founded on November 13, 2013, it has an average stock allocation of 16.63% and a bond allocation of 89.77% from Q4 2020 to Q1 2025 [26]. - Cumulative total return from October 30, 2020, to May 31, 2025, is 23.37%, with an annualized return of about 4.69% and a maximum drawdown of -3.90% [27]. Investment Strategy and Manager Profiles - Each of the featured funds is managed by experienced fund managers with distinct investment styles, contributing to the overall performance and risk management of the "Fixed Income +" products [10][19][32]. - The article emphasizes the importance of considering both risk control and the sustainability of returns when investing in "Fixed Income +" products, highlighting the need for skilled fund managers and robust investment strategies [29][30].

Group 1 - The core principle of investment is to avoid losses, as emphasized by Buffett's repeated advice to not lose money [2][4][12] - Understanding of losses differs between value investors and general market participants; true losses are related to the fundamental performance of the company rather than market price fluctuations [3][4][5] - Value investors should focus on the company's performance rather than short-term price movements, as illustrated by the example of two investors in the same company with different purchase prices [5][6] Group 2 - The ability to endure a 50% drop in stock price is a critical factor in determining suitability for investing; those who cannot handle such volatility may struggle with long-term investment [8][10] - Emotional responses to market fluctuations can hinder investment success; investors who are overly focused on short-term price changes may find it difficult to achieve long-term gains [10][11] - The importance of risk management is highlighted, with a three-tiered approach: preserving capital, establishing psychological discipline, and understanding the philosophical aspects of investing [12][13]

市场全天震荡反弹，创业板指领涨，沪指再度站上3400点。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.52%，深成指涨0.83%，创业板指涨1.21%。 个股涨多跌少，全市场超3400只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.26万亿，较上个交易日缩量1599亿。 板块方面，稀土永磁、游戏、汽车零部件、证券等板块涨幅居前，可控核聚变、生物疫苗、通信服务等板块跌幅居前。 值得一提的是，影石Insta360今日历时4年，今日终于上市，暴涨近300% 01 影石创新今日登陆A股科创板，暴涨274.44% 上市当天，N影石盘中最高涨幅达187.99元/股，涨幅达297.69%。截至收盘，报177元/股，涨幅为274.44%，总市值709.77亿元。个人投资者 中一签新股最多可以赚到7万元。 | N影石 | | | --- | --- | | 688775 盘后交易 06-11 15:22:08 北京 | | | 177.00 +129.73 +274.44% | 6133人加自选 (4) > | | 科 L1 | | | 高 187.99 开 182.00 量 2129.04万股 | 总市值 709.77亿 。 | | 低 165.11 换 69. ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding business models in investment decisions, highlighting that successful investing requires recognizing the barriers to entry, the ease of earning money, and the sustainability of the business over time [2][3]. Group 1: Business Model Analysis - A business model refers to how a company makes money, which includes various barriers such as technological patents, brand advantages, and customer loyalty that reduce competition and stabilize profits [2]. - The ease of earning money in a business is influenced by its position in the supply chain and the challenges it faces, such as capital shortages, talent gaps, and sales difficulties [2]. - The longevity of a business is crucial, as companies with products that can easily become outdated or are in cyclical industries may face significant risks, leading to wealth fluctuations among investors [3]. Group 2: Investment Decision Simplification - Understanding the business model allows for simpler valuation methods, focusing on price-to-book and price-to-earnings ratios, which streamlines investment decision-making [3]. - The article references Charlie Munger's observation that Warren Buffett rarely uses calculators for discounted cash flow calculations, indicating a preference for qualitative assessments over complex quantitative models [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The article mentions the "three-part method" of investment proposed by Xueqiu, which advocates for long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified returns and risk mitigation [4].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively retreated today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44% to 3384.82 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.86% to 10162.18 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.17% to 2037.27 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.42 trillion, an increase of 129 billion compared to the previous trading day [2] Company News - Zhongke Shuguang resumed trading with a limit-up, closing at 68.09, a 10% increase, with a total market value of 99.63 billion [4][5] - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, with a transaction value of 1159.67 billion, is significant as it marks the first "child swallowing mother" merger in A-shares and is one of the largest mergers in the domestic AI chip sector [6][7] - Following the merger, Haiguang Information's total market value is expected to exceed 400 billion, potentially making it the highest-valued domestic AI chip and server company in A-shares [7] Industry Trends - The rare earth permanent magnet sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Zhongke Magnetic Industry hitting the limit-up, while other companies in the sector also saw gains [9][10] - The Ministry of Commerce has indicated that it will approve export license applications for rare earths that meet regulations, which could lead to price increases in the domestic market [11][12] - Silver prices surged approximately 9% last week, reaching over $36, driven by multiple factors including a rebound in base metal prices and increased retail demand in China [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of constructing a balanced investment portfolio that combines equity and bond assets to manage risk and achieve expected returns. It discusses strategies to reduce portfolio volatility without significantly reducing equity exposure [4][8]. Group 1: Portfolio Construction - The framework for building a portfolio involves a mix of equity and bond assets, where bonds act as a shield and equities as a spear to balance volatility [8]. - The article suggests using a "risk parity" strategy to lower equity weight, thus reducing overall drawdown risk, but notes that this may compromise expected returns [4]. - To mitigate volatility without drastically cutting equity allocation, diversifying across different markets and styles is recommended [5]. Group 2: Index Styles and Characteristics - A detailed document categorizes common indices by style, aiding investors in constructing their portfolios based on style preferences [6]. - The article outlines various index styles, including broad-based indices like the CSI 300 and sector-specific indices that focus on growth, such as the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [16][18]. - It highlights the importance of understanding the characteristics of different indices, such as market capitalization and style orientation, to achieve a balanced portfolio [8][24]. Group 3: Examples of Balanced Portfolios - The article provides examples of balanced portfolios, such as combining the CSI 300 with growth-oriented indices like the ChiNext, illustrating the "barbell strategy" [18]. - It emphasizes the use of core broad-based indices as starting points for portfolio construction due to their diversified nature and balanced style [15]. - The article also discusses the role of strategy indices, which can enhance portfolio diversity and richness by incorporating various investment styles [19][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategy of "buying primary assets in the secondary market," which is a value investment approach that can yield excess returns by identifying undervalued stocks that exhibit characteristics of primary market investments [2][5]. Group 1: Concept of "Buying Primary Assets in the Secondary Market" - The primary market serves as a "incubation ground" for capital, where investors support companies' growth from inception, while the secondary market acts as a "trading venue" where stock prices can be distorted by emotions and external factors [4][5]. - This strategy involves identifying companies engaged in value-creating activities such as technological research, mergers and acquisitions, and market expansion, but whose stock prices do not yet reflect their long-term value [5][6]. Group 2: Identifying Investment Opportunities - Key indicators for identifying suitable investments include significant asset restructuring, major technological breakthroughs, and the exploration of new business avenues [7]. - Investors should be cautious of "hype-driven" stocks that lack substantial investment in genuine growth initiatives, distinguishing between companies with real financial commitments and those merely riding trends [7]. Group 3: Market Mispricing and Management Insight - Look for stocks with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios below 70% of the industry average or market capitalizations below their replacement costs, as these may indicate mispricing [8]. - Assess management's "primary market thinking" by examining their professional backgrounds and the proportion of shares they hold, with a higher ownership stake (over 30%) suggesting stronger alignment of interests [9]. Group 4: Conclusion and Investment Philosophy - The essence of the primary market is "value discovery," while the secondary market offers opportunities for "price negotiation." The intersection of these two aspects can lead to excess returns [11]. - When observing a company investing heavily in research and development or acquiring assets at low prices while its stock price declines, it may present an opportunity to "buy primary assets in the secondary market" [11].