Report Title - The daily report of Shanghai copper on November 6, 2025: The Fed's hawkish shift in interest - rate cut expectations may suppress copper prices [2] Core View - Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disturbances, leading to a continuously negative import index of copper concentrates in China, indicating a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. However, due to the Fed's hawkish shift in interest - rate cut expectations and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted [3]. Key Data Summary Shanghai Copper Futures - Closing price of the active contract: 85,670 on November 5, 2025, down 70 from the previous day [3]. - Trading volume: 142,332 lots on November 5, 2025, a 24.41% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Open interest: 217,024 lots on November 5, 2025, down 10,525 from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: 42,561 tons on November 5, 2025, up 1,414 tons from the previous day [3]. London Copper - Closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading): 10,733 on November 5, 2025, up 84 from the previous day [3]. - LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread: - 38.37 on November 5, 2025, down 7.92 from the previous day [3]. - LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread: 63.68 on November 5, 2025, down 1.49 from the previous day [3]. COMEX Copper - Closing price of the active copper futures contract: 4.989 on November 5, 2025, down 0.06 from the previous day [3]. - Total inventory: 363,368 on November 5, 2025, up 4,882 from the previous day [3]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation Supply - Supply side: Multiple copper mines at home and abroad have production disturbances, resulting in a continuously negative import index of copper concentrates in China, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [3]. Demand - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and brass rods have decreased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased compared with last week [3]. Inventory - Inventory side: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared with last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [3]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support levels around 81,000 - 83,000 and the resistance levels around 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, the support levels are around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance levels are around 11,500 - 12,000. For US copper, the support levels are around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance levels are around 5.5 - 6.0 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The Sino-US reached a one-year economic and trade agreement, and there are production disturbances in multiple overseas copper mines. However, due to the Fed's more hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the tightening of liquidity may lead to an adjustment in the price of Shanghai copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the closing price was 85,740, a decrease of 1,560 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 166,742 lots, an increase of 16,145 lots. The open interest was 227,549 lots, a decrease of 21,213 lots. The inventory was 41,147 tons, an increase of 1,081 tons [2]. - **LME Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,649, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was -30.45, a decrease of 4.75 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On November 4, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.9255, a decrease of 0.19 [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, resulting in a continuous negative import index of copper concentrates in China, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, and copper enameled wires have decreased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rates of recycled copper rods, copper strips, and copper tubes have increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has increased compared to last week. The inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract on rallies. Pay attention to the support level of 81,000 - 83,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, the support level is around 10,200 - 10,500 and the resistance level is around 11,500 - 12,000. For US copper, the support level is around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level is around 5.5 - 6.0 [2].

Market Trends & Exchange Rate Dynamics - The possibility exists for the RMB to appreciate further against the USD, potentially breaking through the 7 level [1] - Scenarios driving RMB appreciation include a weakening US economy, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a general decline in market confidence in the USD [1] - A potential improvement in US-China trade relations, such as a second-phase trade agreement, could also boost market confidence and push the RMB higher [1] - The multi-lateral exchange rate trend of the RMB is a result, not a target [1] Policy & Stance - China is not deliberately devaluing its exchange rate to support exports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The possibility of the Chinese yuan appreciating further against the US dollar, potentially breaking the 7 yuan mark, is highlighted by the Chief Economist of China Bank Securities, Guan Tao [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - A weak US economy, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and a general decline in market confidence towards the US dollar are key factors that could drive the yuan's appreciation [1] - The potential for a second-phase trade agreement between China and the US, similar to the one during Trump's first term, could also enhance market confidence and support yuan appreciation [1] Group 2: Refutation of Currency Manipulation Claims - Guan Tao refutes claims that China is deliberately devaluing its currency to boost exports, stating that the trend of the yuan's multilateral exchange rate is a result rather than a goal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various economic indicators and geopolitical events impacting market sentiment, highlighting potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and core PPI showed a mild month-on-month increase of 0.1%, lower than expectations, with core PPI growth reaching a near one-year low, raising expectations for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1]. - The financing balance in China increased by 1.82 billion yuan to 1.8066 trillion yuan as of June 11, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investments [2][8]. - The US initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, with continuing claims rising to the highest level since the end of 2021, suggesting potential economic weakness [1]. Group 2: Commodity Markets - In the oil market, night trading showed a strong performance, with expectations of a significant decrease in US biodiesel and renewable diesel imports due to tax credit policy adjustments, potentially supporting US soybean oil prices [3]. - The May production of Malaysian palm oil was reported at 1.77 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.05%, while exports rose by 25.62% to 1.3872 million tons, indicating a positive supply-demand dynamic [3]. - Copper prices declined in night trading, with low processing fees and copper prices testing smelting output, while downstream demand remains stable, particularly in the power and automotive sectors [3][17]. Group 3: Geopolitical Events - Israel's Defense Minister indicated that missile and drone attacks against Israel and its civilians are expected following Israeli strikes on Iran, which could escalate regional tensions and impact market stability [4]. - The US announced new tariffs on steel appliances starting June 23, which may affect related sectors and trade negotiations [1]. Group 4: Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported pork and pork products from the EU, extending the investigation period to December 16, 2025, which may impact the agricultural sector [5]. - In the metallurgical sector, Mongolian small TT company faced a complete failure in its online auction for coking coal, with all 51,200 tons unsold, reflecting challenges in the coal market [6].