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沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250603
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 09:32
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View -中美互征关税缓和引导抢出口预期,国内电解铜社会库存量处于低位,但传统消费淡季来临,或使沪铜价格涨跌两难,建议投资者短线轻仓逢低试多主力合约,关注74600 - 76600附近支撑位及78500 - 80000附近压力位,伦铜在9000 - 9800附近支撑位及9600 - 9800附近压力位,美铜在4.3 - 4.5附近支撑位及5.0 - 5.5附近压力位 [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - 美国7月到期以短期为主国债规模分别为1.28 - 1.46万亿美元,美债集中到期或引发流动性冲击;5月ISM制造业PMI为49.5,低于预期和前值,因特朗普政府不确定的关税政策引发消费端通胀反弹担忧,使美联储降息预期时点仍在9/12月 [3][4] Upstream - 紫金矿业旗下莫阿·卡库拉铜矿5月28日因矿震暂停地下深矿;印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司8月17日被准许6个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更高出口税;铜陵有色位于厄瓜多尔拉铁拉多铜矿二期6万吨产能或于26年下半年投产;巨龙铜矿新扩建二期200万吨/日扩建工程或于25年底投产;ACC Metals的硫化铜矿扩建项目将于2026年一季度投产,初期年产量为2.5万吨;国内6月铜精矿生产(进口)量环比或有增减,中国铜精矿进口指数为负且较上周升高;国内废铜进口窗口打开,但欧洲高品质废铜被限制出口,中国进口商仅能采购铜米或黄铜,中美贸易争端影响使贸易商尚未恢复直接进口美国废铜,国内电解铜与光亮及老化废铜价差为负或削弱废铜经济性,国内废铜6月生产(进口)量环比或减少;嘉能可位于菲律宾的PASAR铜冶炼厂已停产,位于智利的阿尔托诺特冶炼厂35万吨阳极铜产能因冶炼烧炉问题暂停生产至6月,紫金3.anov = Ikabul冶炼厂或于25年6月建成投产,年产60万吨阴极铜;国内6月粗铜检修产能或环比减少,国内6月粗铜生产量(进口量)环比或增加(减少);江铜云源二期年产15万吨阴极铜项目3月底开工建设,建成后将实现26万吨产能,国内6月电解铜生产量环比或增加;印尼自由港旗下曼迪坎扬48万吨产能将于6月下旬恢复生产且12月达到满负荷生产,日本住友金属矿业计划10月对印尼冶炼厂进行为期6周检验,国内6月电解铜进口量环比或减少;进口窗口关闭限制国内电解铜进口量,中国保税区电解铜库存量较上周减少;中国电解铜社会库存量较上周减少;伦金所电解铜库存量较上周减少;国际部分贸易商仍在向美国港口运输约60万吨铜,使COMEX铜库存量较上周增加 [4] Downstream - 中国精铜杆(再生铜杆)产能开工率较上周升高,精铜杆企业原料(成品)库存量较上周增加,再生铜杆企业原料(成品)库存量较上周增加;中国铜电线电缆产能开工率较上周下降,企业原料(成品)库存量较上周减少(增加);中国铜漆包线单量(产能开工率)较上周减少(下降);中国黄铜棒产能开工率较上周下降;中美互征关税缓和和传统消费淡季来临交织,国内6月钢材企业产能开工率(生产量、进口量、出口量)环比或下降(增加、增加、减少),具体而言,电解铜制厂、再生铜制厂、电生铜板、固废铜流通有限和成品库存等方面复产受限,反向影响到部分企业,如铜板带厂、铜电线电缆、铜漆包线、铜板市、铜箔、钢管、黄铜棒等产能开工率或环比下降 [4] Market Data - **沪铜期货活跃合约**:2025年5月30日收盘价77600元,较昨日变动 - 530元;成交量87403手,较昨日增加7250手;持仓量172994手,较昨日减少1763手;库存34128吨,较昨日增加1963吨;SMM 1电解铜平均价78235元,较昨日变动 - 250元 [2] - **沪铜基差或现货升贴水**:沪铜基差635元,较昨日变动280元;广州电解铜现货升贴水15元,较昨日变动 - 50元;华北电解铜现货升贴水 - 130元,较昨日变动0元;华东电解铜现货升贴水50元,较昨日变动5元 [2] - **价差(近月与远月)**:沪铜近月 - 沪铜连一为330元,较昨日变动60元;沪铜连一 - 沪铜连二为180元,较昨日变动 - 40元;沪铜连二 - 沪铜连一为200元,较昨日变动 - 10元 [2] - **伦敦铜**:LME3个月铜期货收盘价(电子盘)2025年6月2日为9615美元,较昨日变动118美元;LME铜期货0 - 3个月合约价差为51.49美元,较昨日变动1.41美元;LME铜期货3 - 15个月合约价差为105.01美元,较昨日变动10.76美元;沪伦铜价比值为8.0707,较昨日变动 - 0.10 [2] - **COMEX铜**:铜期货活跃合约收盘价2025年6月2日为4.858美元,较昨日变动0.19美元;总库存量182626吨,较昨日增加2125吨 [2]
2026年铜价可能有更多上行空间
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 06:47
Core Viewpoint - The copper market outlook for the second half of 2025 is characterized by a paradox of sufficient supply but potential localized shortages due to the form and location of the copper available [3][4]. Supply Dynamics - Global mine copper production is expected to increase by approximately 2.3% in 2025, exceeding 23.5 million tons, driven by projects like Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia [1]. - Refined copper production is projected to jump nearly 3% this year as smelters expand capacity, particularly in China [1]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025, more than double last year's surplus, indicating a third consecutive year of supply exceeding demand [1]. Refining Challenges - There is a bottleneck in the supply of copper concentrate, which is necessary for refining, leading to negative treatment charges for smelters [2]. - The shutdown of the Cobre Panama mine has exacerbated the concentrate supply tightness, potentially causing refined copper production to decline by 1.5% by 2026 unless scrap recovery increases [2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the apparent surplus, traders remain bullish due to historical underinvestment in large mines and the reallocation of global copper inventories due to trade policies [3]. - The U.S. warehouse inventories have surged to their highest levels since 2018, while futures exchange inventories have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating a complex supply situation [3]. Price Outlook - Experts anticipate that copper prices will continue to fluctuate rather than follow a single trend, with an average price expected to be around $9,500 per ton this year [4]. - Prices are projected to hover between $4.40 and $4.50 per pound in the latter half of the year, which is manageable for many manufacturers [4]. Potential Upside - Some analysts believe there is potential for copper prices to rise, particularly if global economic recovery, especially outside of China, gains momentum, potentially pushing prices above $10,000 per ton by 2026 [5]. - Resolution or easing of U.S.-China trade disputes could act as a bullish catalyst, releasing pent-up demand and narrowing price gaps [6].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比略降-20250528
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 03:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Sino-US mutual tariff relaxation guides import and export expectations. The suspension of underground mining at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, combined with the approaching traditional consumption peak season, may cause copper prices to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 27, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,210 yuan, down 60 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 67,182 lots, a decrease of 10,339 lots; open interest was 127,084 lots, a decrease of 17,857 lots; and inventory was 34,961 tons, an increase of 2,128 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,515 yuan, down 75 yuan; the Shanghai copper basis was 305 yuan, down 15 yuan; and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3-month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,596 US dollars, down 18 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased; and the spreads of different contracts changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.745 US dollars, up 0.07 US dollars; total inventory was 178,963 tons, an increase of 4,356 tons [2]. Industry News - **M&A Information**: South African listed company Harmony Gold Mining's Australian subsidiary will acquire BC Copper for approximately 1.84 billion rand (equivalent to 1.03 billion US dollars), aiming to enhance free cash flow and improve solvency, subject to regulatory approvals [2]. - **Macro News**: The US Congress reached a budget resolution in April, including tax cuts and debt ceiling increases. The US manufacturing and services PMIs were higher than expected, while the consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in April was lower than expected, which may lead the Fed to cut interest rates in September or December [2]. Upstream Situation - **Mine Production**: The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine under Zijin Mining suspended underground mining due to multiple mine tremors; the sulfide copper ore project of Vediktepe Polymetallic Mine under ACC Metals is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2008; several copper mines have expansion or production plans, which may affect the production and import of copper concentrates [3][4]. - **Smelting**: Some smelters have production disruptions or planned production, which may affect the production and import of crude copper and electrolytic copper. For example, the PKSBK copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and the Maxi copper smelter in India may start production around mid - 2025 [4]. Downstream Situation - The high copper price has affected the new orders of copper products, causing the capacity utilization rates of copper rods, copper wires and cables, and other products to decline or be expected to decline [4]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait and see, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 78,500 - 80,000), London copper (9,000 - 9,300 and 9,600 - 9,800), and US copper (4.3 - 4.5 and 4.8 - 5.0) [4].
沪铜日评:国内铜治炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250521
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 07:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The easing of Sino-US mutual tariffs has led to expectations of rush exports, but the traditional consumption off-season is approaching, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the furnace copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,540 yuan, a decrease of 280 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 66,697 lots, a decrease of 15,718 lots; the open interest was 166,088 lots, a decrease of 5,147 lots; and the inventory was 45,738 tons, a decrease of 16,175 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 78,340 yuan, an increase of 230 yuan; the premium of anode copper was 800 yuan, an increase of 510 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 190 yuan, a decrease of 80 yuan; in North China, it was 50 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; and in East China, it was 250 yuan, a decrease of 15 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous first was 350 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan; between Shanghai copper continuous first and Shanghai copper continuous second was 290 yuan, a decrease of 70 yuan; and between Shanghai copper continuous second and Shanghai copper continuous first was 190 yuan, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,554.5 US dollars, an increase of 31 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 170,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was 3.16 US dollars, a decrease of 12.36 US dollars; and the spread of 3 - 15 months contract was 121 US dollars, a decrease of 29.50 US dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.674 US dollars, an increase of 0.08 US dollars; the total inventory was 171,622 tons, an increase of 1,958 tons [2] Industry News - **Mine Expansion and Production**: The fluidized copper ore expansion project of ACC Metals' polymetallic mine will be put into production in Q1 2026, with an initial annual output of 25,000 tons. The second - phase 150,000 - ton production capacity of Mirado Mine under Tongling Nonferrous may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200,000 - ton/day project of Julong Copper Mine may be put into production by the end of 2026 [4]. - **Export Restrictions and Tax**: Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan was allowed to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate within 6 months but will be subject to higher export taxes [4]. - **Domestic Production and Import**: Domestic copper concentrate production and import volume in May may increase or decrease month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative but has risen compared to last week. The out - port volume and inventory of copper concentrate in Chinese ports have increased or decreased compared to last week [4]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper weakens the economy of scrap copper, but the opening of the solid waste import window may lead to an increase or decrease in domestic scrap copper production and import volume. Scrap copper suppliers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a supply shortage [4]. - **Smelter Situation**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has suspended production until May due to problems with the melting furnace. The Kaooor Kakula copper smelter may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 600,000 tons of anode copper [4]. Macroeconomic Situation - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget decision in April, including spending 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling by 5 trillion US dollars, and the government reducing spending by 4 billion US dollars. The US PMI and employment data in May were better than expected, and the CPI annual rate in April was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, which may lead to an interest rate cut by the Fed in September or December [3] Downstream Market - High copper prices have improved new orders, leading to an increase in the capacity utilization rate of China's copper rod (recycled copper rod) industry compared to last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises has remained flat (decreased) [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable industry (raw material and finished product inventory) has decreased (decreased, increased) compared to last week. The order volume and processing rate of copper foil have increased (slightly decreased) compared to last week [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rod has increased compared to last week. Due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in June may decline [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see temporarily, paying attention to the support levels of 74,000 - 78,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,000 - 9,300 US dollars for London copper, and 4.3 - 4.5 US dollars for US copper, as well as the resistance levels of 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, and 4.8 - 5.0 US dollars for US copper [4]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250520
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 05:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to expectations of a rush to export, but the traditional off - season for consumption is approaching. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,820, down 320 from the previous day; the trading volume was 82,415 lots, an increase of 10,104; the open interest was 171,235 lots, a decrease of 9,255; and the inventory was 61,913 tons, a decrease of 1,334 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,110, down 720; the Shanghai copper basis was 290, down 400; the spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed minor changes, with the spread between near - month and continuous - first contracts increasing by 10, and the spreads between continuous - first and continuous - second, continuous - second and continuous - third contracts decreasing [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,523.5, up 76; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease of 174,325; the COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.6635, down 0.02, and the total inventory weight was 170,380, an increase of 1,817 [2]. Industry News - **Mine Operations**: The Zaldivar copper mine in Chile has received environmental approval to extend its operation until 2028; the Antamina copper mine in Peru has started to resume production; some mines in Poland, Kazakhstan, and other places have suspended production due to various reasons [2][4]. - **Production and Expansion Projects**: Multiple copper mine and smelter projects have production, expansion, or suspension plans. For example, the ACS - Metalstopes metal mine's fluidized copper ore expansion project will be put into production in Q1 2020; the second - phase project of some copper mines may increase production capacity in 2025 [4]. - **Trade and Policy**: The US budget resolution includes tax cuts and debt ceiling increases; the US economic data may lead to Fed rate cuts; trade disputes and export policies affect copper trade, such as the export approval and higher export tax for Indonesian copper concentrate [3][4]. Downstream Market - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The new orders and long - term order executions of refined copper rod enterprises have significantly decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises have increased, with changes in raw material and finished product inventories [4]. - **Other Downstream Products**: The capacity utilization rates of various copper products such as copper wires and cables, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper clad wires, steel strips, copper foils, copper tubes, and brass rods may decline due to factors such as high copper prices, trade policies, and market demand [4].
暴增91%!AI需求带飞富士康Q1利润,但关税阴霾拖累全年展望
智通财经网· 2025-05-14 08:28
智通财经APP获悉,凭借人工智能服务器的强劲需求,全球最大的电子代工制造商富士康第一季度利润 飙升91%,远超市场预期。不过,由于关税不确定性为前景蒙上了阴影,该公司对全年业绩展望却较为 保守。 作为苹果(AAPL.US)最大的iPhone组装商,同时也是英伟达(NVDA.US)AI服务器的制造商,富士康今日 公布第一季度净利润达421.2亿新台币(约合13.9亿美元),远高于路孚特汇总的分析师平均预测的378亿 新台币。 此外,富士康还在墨西哥建设一座大型制造工厂,用于为英伟达生产AI服务器。而墨西哥同样是美国 总统唐纳德·特朗普关税政策的目标之一。 富士康一直在寻求拓展电动汽车业务版图,将其视为未来主要的增长引擎。 其旗下子公司富士康汽车科技(Foxtron Vehicle Technologies)与日本三菱汽车上周宣布签署谅解备忘录, 将合作供应一款电动汽车。 富士康(正式名称为鸿海精密工业)上月表示,受AI服务器热销推动,今年第一季度营收跃升24.2%,创 该季度历史新高。 在财报电话会议上,富士康董事长刘扬伟表示,美国关税政策将带来更多挑战,因此他对公司全年业绩 的预期较之前更为谨慎。 富士康在财 ...
突然疯涨!澳元,彻底站起来了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 21:45
Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has surged to over 65 cents against the US dollar, marking a five-month high and the first time since early December last year [2] - The recent Australian election resulted in a significant victory for Albanese's Labor Party, securing 87 parliamentary seats and indicating strong public trust in the party [3][4] - The election outcome signals the end of political uncertainty in Australia, providing policy support for the AUD [5] Group 2 - Economic data supports the strength of the AUD, with the TD-MI inflation index rising 0.6% month-on-month in April, marking the second consecutive month of increase [7] - The annual inflation index increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8% previously [8] - The Judo Bank composite PMI for April stood at 51.0, indicating economic expansion for the seventh consecutive month [9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have created market volatility, but recent indications of trade negotiations have improved market sentiment [11][14] - Any positive developments in US-China trade relations are likely to bolster the AUD due to Australia's close trade ties with China [17][22] - China's recent economic stimulus measures, including a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, are expected to enhance demand for Australian exports, further supporting the AUD [19][20] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates without changes reflects growing economic risks in the US, which may lead to a decline in the US dollar [23][26] - Concerns over the US economic outlook and potential political issues could trigger a sell-off of the US dollar, making the AUD more attractive to investors [28][30] - The strong Australian consumer inflation data has led to expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but it also supports the AUD by reducing expectations for aggressive rate cuts [31][32] Group 5 - The political stability and economic recovery in Australia, combined with supportive external factors, suggest a positive outlook for the AUD [33][34] - The AUD is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by optimism regarding US-China trade relations and increased demand from China for Australian commodities [36][37]
港股收评:恒指微涨0.13%,大金融、军工股集体走强,弘业期货飙涨34%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-07 08:51
大型科技股集体转跌,小米跌近3%,阿里巴巴跌超2%,网易、腾讯跌超1%,快手、京东、百度飘绿。 (原标题:港股收评:恒指微涨0.13%,大金融、军工股集体走强,弘业期货飙涨34%) 5月7日,一揽子金融政策重磅推出,涉及降准降息、股市、楼市等。港股三大指数走出高开低走行情,恒生科技指数最终收跌0.75%,国企指数 跌0.23%;恒生指数勉强维持涨势,收盘涨幅缩窄至0.13%。 盘面上,大型科技股集体转跌,小米跌近3%,阿里巴巴跌2%,网易、腾讯跌超1%,快手、京东、百度飘绿;受降准降息利好影响,大金融股总 体活跃,弘业期货大涨超34%表现最为抢眼;印巴冲突继续升级,军工板块避险或迎估值重估,中船防务盘中涨超14%;濠赌股、石油股、煤炭 股、海运股齐涨。另一方面,特朗普欲征药品关税,生物医药股全天表现低迷,百济神州跌近8%;机器人概念股、半导体股普遍下跌。 具体来看: 半导体股普遍下跌,华虹半导体跌超3%,中芯国际、上海复旦跌超1%。 军工股集体大涨,中航科工涨6.35%,中船防务涨5.97%,大陆航空科技控股、航天控股涨超1%。 汽车经销商股走强,中升控股涨4.8%,永达汽车、和谐汽车涨超1%。消息面上,央行 ...
宏源期货沪铜日评-20250501
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-01 02:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Trump government's tariff negotiations with China and others are uncertain, but due to the expected increase in domestic economic stimulus policies and the decreasing trend of domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold existing long positions or set stop - loss at high levels, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On April 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 77,600 yuan, with a volume of 79,140 lots and an open interest of 164,818 lots. The inventory was 34,042 tons, a decrease of 2,842 tons compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis was 78,035 - 435, and the spot premium/discount in different regions showed various changes [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price on April 28 was 9,378, and the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 202,500 tons. The COMEX copper futures active contract closing price on April 29 was 4.8625, and the total inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 5,783 tons compared to the previous day [2] News and Events - On April 8, a "phosphorus - iron - lithium" coupling circular integrated project started in Kaiyang County, Guiyang. It aims to build a global - competitive new energy battery material R & D and production base [3] - In March, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials was 189,700 physical tons, a 28% decrease from the previous month and a 12.07% decrease from the same period last year. The import source is gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and if relevant policies in Thailand and Malaysia change, the market will turn to Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [3] Key Factors Macro - The US Senate and House of Representatives reached a budget resolution agreement on March 30, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion in the next ten years, raising the debt ceiling, and the Trump government may reduce tariffs on China, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates [4] Upstream - Some mines and smelters have production changes. For example, Antamina mine in Peru is resuming production, while some smelters in Chile, the Philippines, and other places are facing production suspension or maintenance. The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in May may change, with production possibly decreasing and imports possibly increasing [4] Downstream - The new orders of refined copper rod enterprises have decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate of some copper - related industries may decline, while the capacity utilization rate of some domestic copper product enterprises may increase due to economic stimulus policies and tariff expectations [4]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250430
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-04-30 12:38
004月8日,贵州孵化公众号上发布消息称"谈疏铁钢铁理氟"耦合循环一体化项目在贵阳市开阳目双流镇测永村开工,2万吨/年六氟减酸锂等项目开工。据了解,该项目是以磷的主导 的全资源循环播合产业示范项目,中核铂目、贵州降化及其他产业方与贵阳市人民政府签署合作协议。通过建设140万吨七水顽棱亚铁联产40万吨铁白粉、60万吨磷旋铁、60万吨磷酸铁 理、15万吨碳酸锂、1万吨氟化锂、2万吨元氰磷酸锂、10万吨铜冶炼、磷石膏分解制动酸、热电联产项目、公铺工程项目来打造具有全球等务力频能源电池材料研发和生产基地。 0组:BSMT 降,4月海关公布的进口再生铜原锌数据显示,3月再生铜原料进口量为18.97万突物吨,环比减少28%,同比减少12.07%。折分来源国来看,前五来源国分别为日本、美国、泰 国、马来西亚和中国台湾,日本进口量达2.7万实物吨,环比增加16%,一举跃升至第一名,美国进口量2.2万弈物吨,环比减少29%,受中美贸易战不断升级。中国海关次对4月00日前 寓开美国随口,并于5月22号前到达中国港口并报关的再生铜原料进行关税豁免,但在此前,8月份进口贸易商早已停止从美国采购两生铜原料,3月份到港货物均是1、2月赛 ...