Group 1 - The trade negotiations between India and the United States are stalled due to disagreements over tariffs on auto parts, steel, and agricultural products, making it difficult to reach an agreement before the July 9 deadline set by Trump [1][2] - India has proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff arrangement for specific goods, including steel, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, based on reciprocity and limited to a certain quantity of imports [1][2] - The Indian delegation is expected to travel to Washington for negotiations, but the focus may shift towards a broader agreement rather than a rushed temporary deal [1][3] Group 2 - India is pushing for the removal of a 26% reciprocal tariff set to take effect on July 9 and is seeking concessions from the U.S. on existing tariffs for steel and auto parts [1][3] - Despite the stalled negotiations, India emphasizes its commitment to establishing a long-term economic partnership with the U.S. while maintaining policy independence [3][4] - India has proposed to reduce tariffs on almonds, pistachios, and walnuts, and is willing to offer preferential treatment for U.S. imports in sectors like energy, automotive, and defense [2][3] Group 3 - The bilateral trade agreement aims to increase trade from approximately $191 billion in 2024 to $500 billion by 2030, as agreed by Modi and Trump [3] - India is also pursuing free trade agreements with the European Union and has recently completed negotiations with the United Kingdom to hedge against potential changes in U.S. policy [3][4] - Data shows that India's exports to the U.S. increased to $17.25 billion from April to May, up from $14.17 billion in the same period last year, indicating limited impact from the average 10% tariff increase in early April [4]

Core Insights - Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, believes that while signs of economic slowdown are evident, a recession is not imminent [1][3] - Bostic anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, driven by a projected economic growth rate of 0.5% to 1% [3][4] - The uncertainty in trade policies is contributing to cautious business investment decisions, which is impacting overall economic activity [3][6] Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Bostic's analysis indicates that consumer confidence is declining, which is a significant factor in the expected economic slowdown [3] - The demand for interest rate cuts may become more pressing by 2025 due to ongoing economic uncertainties [4] - The Federal Reserve's current stance remains unchanged, but future rate cuts may be considered as a means to alleviate economic slowdown pressures [4][7] Trade Policy and Inflation - Bostic expressed concerns about the 90-day extension of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting that trade tensions, despite some easing, still create market caution [6] - He noted that while short-term tariff fluctuations may exert upward pressure on prices, inflation remains a critical issue for the Federal Reserve to monitor [6] - The need for the Federal Reserve to maintain policy flexibility to address potential inflationary pressures is emphasized [6][7] Overall Sentiment - Bostic's views align with those of other Federal Reserve officials, who share concerns regarding inflation and unemployment risks [7] - The Federal Reserve's future decisions will be influenced by changes in both global and domestic economic conditions, with a focus on balancing economic growth and inflation [7]

以下文章来源于智通财经APP ，作者智通编选 智通财经APP . 智通财经APP，连线全球资本市场。内容合作/内容举报请联系李先生： Tel: +86-15121009144 Email:zhitongcolumn@163.com 点击蓝字，关注我们 编者按： 美银邀请了科文顿・柏灵律师事务所(Covington & Burling)的高级顾问克里斯托弗・亚当斯，共同探讨 美国近期全球关税计划的影响。 美银提示，本文中任何第三方发言者的观点并不代表、也不应被理解为代表美银全球研究部门的观点。 亚当斯曾担任美国财政部中国事务高级协调员，负责协调美国政府内部的对华政策问题，领导与中国在 广泛的贸易和投资问题上的谈判，管理奥巴马和特朗普政府时期最高层级的美中经济政策对话。读者请 留意， 本文是从美国立场的视角来看谈判，从中国视角则是另外一种情况。 一、自 4 月 2 日以来美国的三大转变 克里斯・亚当斯先生表示，他在美国财政部和美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)任职时注意到，官员们认为传 统的谈判方式，尤其是与中国的谈判，困难重重，且由于未能解决贸易失衡问题，进展并不显著。目前 特朗普政府在与中国及其他国家的谈判中尝试 ...

Group 1 - The tariff increase in both magnitude and scope exceeds market expectations, with over 180 countries facing new "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump on April 2 [2] - The highest tariffs are imposed on Lesotho at 50%, followed by Cambodia at 49%, Laos at 48%, and Vietnam at 46%. China faces a 34% tariff, while South Korea, Japan, the EU, and the UK face tariffs of 25%, 24%, 20%, and 10% respectively [2] - The new tariffs are expected to take effect on April 9 [2] Group 2 - The small-value exemption policy for goods exported from China, previously allowing items valued under $800 to be exempt from tariffs, will be officially canceled on May 2. A 30% tariff or $25 per item will be imposed, increasing to $50 per item after June 1 [3] - This policy had been briefly suspended in early February [3] Group 3 - Certain industries, including steel, aluminum, automotive, gold bars, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wood products, will not be affected by the reciprocal tariffs [4] - A 25% tariff on automobiles will take effect on April 3 [4]