此前一天，丹麦养老基金Akademiker Pension也宣布将抛售其持有的约1亿美元美国国债，理由是对美国财政可持续性及政策方向引发的信用 风险日益担忧。 白宫对美欧贸易战引发的美股、美元波动不以为意，但中期选举年美债收益率飙升对特朗普政府堪称致命打击。这是否会像去年4月"解放 日"关税风波后那样迫使特朗普让步，仍是悬而未决的问题，也让美债投资者与政府面临更高风险。 周三，据瑞典每日工业报报道，瑞典最大养老基金Alecta已抛售其持有的绝大部分美国国债，此次出售规模约为700亿至800亿瑞典克朗（77亿 至88亿美元）。Alecta证实已出售"大部分持仓"，并将其归因于美国政策风险和不可预测性的增加。 去年春季特朗普首轮关税引发的金融动荡迅速平息，全球投资者误以为最终总能达成协议，且欧洲盟友不愿破坏对美关系。然而，特朗普为 获取丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛而威胁加征关税，让欧洲领导人猛然醒悟，去年贸易妥协反而助长其将贸易武器用于更重大领土和军事目标。 路透社专栏作家迈克·多兰（Mike Dolan）指出，任何欧洲国家直接抛售美国国债都可能成为重大催化剂——尤其是如果涉及处于格陵兰争端 中心的北欧大型基金，比如挪威 ...

据报道，该公司每天在其视频模型Sora上的投入就高达1500万美元。 这些批评聚焦于该行业所面临的一个"重大数学难题"：收益递减现象。批评者认为，那些容易实现的目 标已经不复存在，如今要仅仅将模型性能提高一倍，所需的能源和资金却是原来的五倍。 伯里因在2008年金融危机前做空房地产市场而闻名，他认为，全球最富有的企业所进行的巨额资本支出 也无法为人工智能实现盈利争取足够的时间。 他明确警告说，尽管政府必然会"竭尽全力挽救AI泡沫，以拯救市场"，但根据同样的定义，这个金融漏 洞"太大了，无法挽救"。 伯里持看跌观点的依据在于相关数据所反映出的 OpenAI不稳定的财务状况。 伯里分享了投资者乔治·诺布尔（George Noble）的一篇分析帖子，后者指出，OpenAI在一个季度内亏 损了120亿美元。据德银估计，在该公司实现盈利之前，其累计负现金流将达到1430亿美元。 电影《大空头》的原型人物迈克尔·伯里就人工智能 （AI） 泡沫发出严厉警告，预测该行业将出现系统 性崩溃，即使美国政府干预也无法阻止。 伯里在社交平台X上发表了一篇措辞严厉的帖子，将当前的AI投资狂潮描述为一种"狂热"，这种狂热从 数学上讲注定 ...

Group 1 - Cathie Wood predicts a "golden age" for the US stock market driven by deregulation, tax cuts, sound monetary policy, and innovative technologies, referring to it as "Reaganomics on steroids" [1][2] - The US economy is currently in a "coiled spring" state, having experienced a rolling recession, but is expected to rebound strongly in the coming years [2][4] - Wood anticipates nominal GDP growth rates in the US to remain between 6% and 8%, primarily driven by productivity improvements rather than inflation [2][31] Group 2 - The effective corporate tax rate is projected to drop to around 10%, providing significant policy benefits for economic growth [2][13] - Inflation is expected to be controlled and may even turn negative, with Wood suggesting that the current inflation rate could fall to unexpectedly low levels [2][15] - The housing market has seen a significant decline, with existing home sales dropping 40% from January 2021 to October 2023, indicating a tightly compressed economic environment [4][20] Group 3 - Wood does not believe an AI bubble has formed, asserting that high price-to-earnings ratios will be offset by earnings growth driven by technological advancements [2][49] - The capital expenditure related to AI and digital assets is expected to reach unprecedented levels, with significant investments projected for data center systems [42][45] - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is low, suggesting Bitcoin could be a viable diversification option for investors seeking higher risk returns [38][39] Group 4 - The dollar is expected to strengthen significantly, potentially mirroring the nearly doubling of its value seen in the early 1980s, driven by improved investment returns in the US [40][41] - The productivity growth driven by technological innovations is anticipated to accelerate, potentially reaching annual rates of 4-6% [27][31] - The overall economic environment is expected to resemble the major technological revolution period leading up to 1929, characterized by synchronized short-term interest rates and nominal GDP growth [31][32]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on the tariff case from the Trump administration, with no further hearings scheduled until after February 20 [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin revealed that Trump has narrowed down the candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to four, with a decision expected next week [1] - A Bank of America survey indicates that global investor confidence has reached its highest level since July 2021, with geopolitical conflict identified as the largest tail risk [1] Group 2 - The European Parliament has suspended the approval of a trade agreement with the U.S. in response to Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs on eight European countries [1] - Japan's Finance Minister urged investors to remain calm amid volatility in the Japanese bond market, asserting that current fiscal policies are responsible and sustainable [2] - South Korea plans to delay its commitment to invest up to $20 billion in the U.S. until the foreign exchange market stabilizes [2] Group 3 - The Polish central bank has approved a gold purchasing plan to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons [2] - The latest ADP employment data shows that the U.S. private sector added an average of only 8,000 jobs per week, indicating a significant cooling in the labor market [2] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.76% to 48,488.59 points, while the S&P 500 dropped by 2.06% to 6,796.86 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.39% to 22,954.32 points [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.98% to $4,769.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 0.19% to $94.46 per ounce [3] Group 5 - U.S. oil futures increased by 0.15% to $59.52 per barrel, while Brent oil futures decreased by 0.06% to $63.90 per barrel [4] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across various maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7.94 basis points to 4.293% [4] Group 6 - Japanese long-term bonds faced selling pressure, with 30-year and 40-year bond yields rising by over 25 basis points in a single day, marking a significant increase [5] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.50% to 98.55, while the euro appreciated by 0.70% against the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood predicts a "golden age" for the U.S. stock market driven by deregulation, tax cuts, sound monetary policy, and innovative technologies, likening the next three years to "Reaganomics on steroids" [2][4] Economic Outlook - Despite continuous growth in real GDP over the past three years, the underlying U.S. economy has experienced a rolling recession and is poised for a strong rebound [3][11] - Wood emphasizes that the U.S. economy will benefit significantly from policy changes, including a reduction in effective corporate tax rates to around 10% [4][25] - Inflation is expected to be controlled and may even turn negative, driven by productivity gains [5][30] GDP Growth Projections - The nominal GDP growth rate in the U.S. is projected to remain between 6% and 8% in the coming years, primarily driven by productivity improvements rather than inflation [6][51] Market Impact - Wood anticipates that the relative advantage of U.S. investment returns will lead to a significant appreciation of the dollar, reminiscent of the 1980s when the dollar nearly doubled in value [7][68] - The strengthening dollar is expected to suppress gold prices, while Bitcoin will exhibit a different trend due to its supply mechanism and low asset correlation [8][66] Valuation Concerns - Wood does not believe an AI bubble has formed, arguing that while current price-to-earnings ratios are historically high, corporate earnings growth driven by AI and robotics will absorb these valuations [9][82] - Historical patterns suggest that significant bull markets can occur alongside P/E compression, as seen in previous market cycles [84] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence among low-income groups has dropped to its lowest level since the early 1980s, indicating a tightly coiled spring with potential for rebound [22][23] - Tax cuts and regulatory easing are expected to boost disposable income growth significantly, potentially increasing from approximately 2% to 8.3% annually [25][28] Technological Innovation and Productivity - The integration of AI, robotics, and other technologies is anticipated to drive a robust capital expenditure cycle, marking one of the strongest periods of investment in history [20][70] - Productivity growth is expected to accelerate to 4-6% annually, further reducing unit labor cost inflation [41][46] Gold and Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged significantly, while Bitcoin has seen a decline, with supply dynamics influencing their respective markets [54][56] - The historical context suggests that gold prices are currently at a high level relative to M2 money supply, indicating potential overvaluation [60] Future of the Dollar - Predictions indicate that U.S. investment returns will improve relative to other regions, potentially leading to a stronger dollar in the coming years [68]

Group 1 - Cathie Wood predicts a "golden age" for the US stock market driven by deregulation, tax cuts, sound monetary policy, and innovative technologies, referring to it as "Reaganomics on steroids" [1][2] - The US economy is currently in a "coiled spring" state, having experienced a rolling recession, but is expected to rebound strongly in the coming years [2][4] - Wood forecasts nominal GDP growth rates of 6% to 8% in the next few years, primarily driven by productivity improvements rather than inflation [2][28] Group 2 - The effective corporate tax rate is expected to drop to around 10%, providing significant policy benefits for economic growth [2][14] - Inflation is anticipated to be controlled and may even turn negative, with Wood suggesting that productivity growth will play a crucial role in this [2][16][22] - The housing market has seen a significant decline in sales, with existing home sales dropping 40% from January 2021 to October 2023, indicating a tightly compressed economic environment [5][20] Group 3 - Wood does not believe an AI bubble has formed, arguing that high price-to-earnings ratios will be offset by earnings growth driven by technological advancements [2][43] - The investment in AI and digital assets is expected to lead to a substantial increase in capital expenditures, with data center investments projected to grow significantly [37][39] - The dollar is expected to strengthen significantly, similar to the trends seen in the early 1980s, as US investment returns improve relative to other regions [35][2]

Core Viewpoint - Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns that artificial intelligence (AI) is a classic market bubble waiting to burst, similar to past bubbles like the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Grantham emphasizes that the only consistently reliable investment strategy is to buy assets when they are cheap, aligning with classic value investing principles [1] - Current high prices in AI-related stocks, driven by capital expenditure and market enthusiasm, suggest that future returns may be lower [1] - Grantham compares the current AI boom to transformative technologies of the past, indicating that it is the basis for a "huge bubble" [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns about the AI bubble, Grantham remains optimistic about opportunities in the venture capital space rather than the public markets [2] - Grantham has previously warned that the AI sector will eventually face a collapse, similar to other transformative technologies that have experienced bubbles [2] - A Deutsche Bank survey indicated that over half of the 440 asset managers surveyed view the AI bubble as a major concern for 2026 [2] Group 3: Broader Market Concerns - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warns that the AI-driven surge in tech stocks is entering the early stages of a bubble [3] - Bernstein Advisory Company highlights that excess liquidity is pushing asset prices beyond fundamental support levels, indicating a "broad frenzy" in the market [3] - The current market bubble extends beyond AI, affecting cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, SPACs, and various bond categories, driven by loose monetary and fiscal policies [3] Group 4: Diverging Opinions - Some market participants, such as Bank of America strategists, claim they have not observed any signs of an AI bubble, suggesting that the global AI arms race is still in its early to mid-stages [4] - Vanguard notes that the AI investment cycle may have only reached 30%-40% of its peak, although risks of a pullback in large tech stocks are acknowledged [4] - Coatue Management's founder argues that the current AI investment wave differs from the internet bubble due to the strong cash flows of major tech companies, which are expected to invest over $500 billion in AI infrastructure [5]

Core Insights - In early 2025, investors questioned Google's ability to keep pace with OpenAI in the AI race, but by the end of the year, Alphabet's stock achieved its best performance since 2009 [1] - Google's resurgence in AI is largely attributed to DeepMind, which was acquired in 2014 for approximately £400 million [1][9] - DeepMind's CEO, Demis Hassabis, emphasized the company's role as the "core engine" of Google's AI development and noted adjustments made to accelerate product deployment in a competitive environment [1][9] Company Adjustments - In 2023, Google merged its Google Brain research division with DeepMind, laying the groundwork for the success of its flagship AI assistant, Gemini [3][11] - Key personnel changes, including the promotion of Josh Woodward to oversee Gemini-related operations, have also contributed to this shift [3][11] - Despite being behind OpenAI after the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, Google has made strides in product commercialization and rapid deployment of AI technologies [3][11] Competitive Landscape - The current market competition is described as "fierce," with many industry veterans acknowledging it as one of the most intense periods in tech history [2][10] - Google faces competition not only from OpenAI but also from other companies like Amazon, Perplexity, and Anthropic [1][9] Product Development - Hassabis stated that the Gemini series models developed by DeepMind can be quickly integrated into various Google products, with a smoother deployment process observed over the past year [4][12] - The launch of Gemini 2.5 in March 2025 and Gemini 3 in November 2025 received high praise for their performance [4][11] Strategic Communication - Hassabis and Google CEO Sundar Pichai communicate almost daily to discuss strategic matters and technology development, highlighting DeepMind's significance in Google's overall planning [5][13] - This ongoing dialogue facilitates real-time adjustments to product roadmaps and long-term goals, aiming for the rapid and safe realization of general artificial intelligence [6][13] Market Dynamics - There is ongoing debate about whether the current AI boom represents a bubble, with significant investments flowing into AI startups, many of which have high valuations despite underdeveloped products [7][14] - Hassabis acknowledged that while some areas of AI may exhibit bubble-like characteristics, the technology itself is poised to be transformative for humanity [8][15] - He compared the current AI hype to the internet bubble of the late 1990s, suggesting that valuable companies will emerge from this period despite potential market corrections [8][15] Long-term Positioning - Hassabis expressed the need to ensure that the company is well-positioned to thrive regardless of future market conditions, whether they involve continued growth or a potential bubble burst [16] - He believes that the integration of AI with Google's core business places the company in a favorable position to benefit from future developments in the industry [16]

Core Viewpoint - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a significant year for IPOs, particularly for major tech companies like Anthropologie, OpenAI, and SpaceX, marking a potential milestone for Silicon Valley and the AI boom [2]. Group 1: Upcoming IPOs - Anthropologie and OpenAI are reportedly taking initial steps towards going public, while SpaceX has engaged with multiple banks to discuss its IPO plans [2][3]. - If any of these private companies go public, they could rank among the most valuable companies globally, with valuations of $350 billion for Anthropologie, $500 billion for OpenAI, and $800 billion for SpaceX [2]. - Morgan Stanley's Eddie Molloy suggests that the upcoming IPOs could lead to an unprecedented scale of transactions in the market [2]. Group 2: Market Context - The U.S. IPO market has been sluggish since 2021, with only 202 companies going public last year, raising $44 billion compared to 397 companies and $142 billion in 2021 [4]. - The potential IPOs from these tech giants may encourage other companies to follow suit, including those in AI hardware and cryptocurrency sectors [4]. - Investors believe that these IPOs could provide detailed financial information, helping to address concerns about an AI bubble [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - OpenAI has raised over $60 billion, breaking private funding records, and reported revenues of $13 billion last year, with expectations to triple this year [5]. - Anthropic has raised at least $40 billion and is negotiating to raise an additional $10 billion, with projected monthly revenues of $8 billion to $10 billion [5]. - OpenAI plans to spend $115 billion between 2025 and 2029, indicating a significant need for capital to support its operations [5]. Group 4: Wealth Creation and Market Dynamics - The rapid growth of AI companies is changing employee expectations, with many engineers now anticipating returns on their stock options within two to three years [6]. - The IPOs of OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic could create over 16,000 millionaires, further fueling the wealth cycle in Silicon Valley [6].

来源：市场资讯 此外，达利欧还指出，美联储货币政策的不确定性是2026年的重大风险之一。 2025年，美股大幅上涨，标普500指数全年上涨16%，连续三年实现显著增长。科技股飙升是这轮涨势 的主要推手，背后是投资者持续对人工智能前景抱有乐观情绪。但桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧警告称， 投资者应该在2026年做好准备：那些涨幅过高的股票可能面临"现实考验"。 达利欧在社交平台X上发布的一篇2025年回顾文章中写道："当前正处于泡沫早期阶段的人工智能热 潮，对各行各业都产生了巨大影响。" 尽管2025年市场最终表现强劲，但这一年对投资者而言并非始终一帆风顺。除了特朗普政府推行关税措 施所引发的市场波动外，股市对人工智能领域的任何预警信号都格外敏感。去年8月，OpenAI的首席执 行官萨姆·奥尔特曼亲口承认人工智能可能存在泡沫，并表示投资者或许"对人工智能过度兴奋"，随后 以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数在一个上午就下跌了1.4%。 围绕人工智能泡沫的担忧，很大程度上集中在这项技术的落地应用速度上。麻省理工学院去年发布的一 项研究发现，在企业开展的生成式人工智能试点项目中，多达95%的项目迄今尚未盈利。达利欧在去年 11月接 ...