Market Overview - Since September, the A-share market has experienced fluctuations and adjustments, with increased risk aversion leading some funds to shift towards dividend assets characterized by low valuations and high dividends [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped by 1.18% since September, indicating a structural divergence in the market [2] Sector Performance - The defense, computer, and electronics sectors, which previously led the market, have seen significant corrections, with the defense sector index declining over 10% [2] - Conversely, cyclical sectors such as electric equipment, non-ferrous metals, and public utilities have strengthened, with the electric equipment sector rising over 5% [2] - The strong performance of cyclical sectors is attributed to steady demand recovery and the appeal of high dividend yields in the current market environment [2] Stock Characteristics - Over 3,000 stocks have declined since September, with more than 450 stocks falling over 10%, while over 400 stocks have risen more than 10% [3] - Stocks that have increased by at least 10% exhibit significant high dividend characteristics, with their average market capitalization below 15 billion and average P/E ratios lower than those of declining stocks [4] Fund Flows - Dividend assets have attracted significant capital, with dividend-themed ETFs seeing a net inflow of over 800 million, while other sectors like technology and AI have experienced substantial outflows [5] - Financing balances in sectors such as electric equipment and non-ferrous metals have increased, while sectors like defense and computing have seen declines [5] Stability and Risk Buffer - Dividend assets have shown notable resilience during market downturns, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index in several instances since 2020 [6][7] - The dividend index has a lower P/E ratio compared to consumer and technology indices, indicating a more attractive valuation for risk-averse investors [8] Investment Strategy - The dividend sector is seen as a strong defensive choice in a volatile market, while the consumer sector offers stable returns and growth potential for long-term investors [9] - The technology sector, despite its high growth potential, carries investment risks due to lower dividend yields and higher valuations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates a positive outlook for the electrolytic aluminum sector in the second half of the year, driven by low valuations and expectations of profit expansion [1] Valuation and Profitability - The current valuation of the electrolytic aluminum sector is considered low [1] - The supply-demand dynamics are tight, supporting an upward trend in aluminum prices, while the supply of alumina is relatively loose [1] - The average profit in the electrolytic aluminum segment is expected to expand to over 4,500 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [1] Market Outlook - With expectations of both valuation and profitability improvements, the sector's stock performance is anticipated to be strong in the latter half of the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the Hong Kong stock market has led to increased investor interest in certain small-cap stocks, particularly Energy International Investment Holdings (00353.HK), which has shown impressive financial performance despite its small size [1][3]. Financial Performance - Over the past twelve months, the company reported revenue of approximately HKD 152 million, while achieving a net profit of HKD 256 million, indicating a net profit significantly higher than revenue, a rarity among Hong Kong-listed companies [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) has dropped to below 1.5 times, reflecting a very low valuation, with a market capitalization maintained in the range of HKD 300 million to HKD 400 million [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal year 2025 has risen to HKD 0.24, compared to HKD 0.056 in the same period of 2024, showcasing a multiple growth in profit levels within a year [3]. Investment Logic - Supporters argue that the company's core business linked to energy logistics has stable market demand, combined with the cash flow characteristics of its insurance brokerage business, providing a degree of defensiveness [4]. - Critics caution that the profit statement may include non-recurring income, suggesting that the true profitability could be overstated if one-time items are excluded [4]. - The company has low trading activity and limited institutional coverage, which results in low stock price elasticity, making its undervaluation more pronounced [4]. Business Overview - Energy International Investment Holdings transitioned its business focus from mineral resources to energy logistics and insurance around 2010, with its terminal and storage services primarily catering to the liquid chemical and oil-related industries [4]. - The company's operations are significantly influenced by international energy price fluctuations and regional demand, indicating a cyclical nature [4]. - The insurance brokerage business contributes stable cash flow, supplementing the overall profitability of the company [4]. Market Outlook - Overall, Energy International Investment Holdings is characterized as a small-cap stock with extremely low valuation, attracting attention due to its impressive profit data and low PE ratio [5]. - The market is generally awaiting further evidence to confirm the sustainability of its profits, which will be crucial for the company's valuation recovery [5]. - The company's ability to explore new growth avenues beyond its core business and maintain stable shareholder returns will be key factors influencing its long-term valuation [5].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the construction and decoration industry, particularly for undervalued large construction blue-chip stocks [3][10]. Core Insights - The construction industry showed signs of improvement in profitability and cash flow in Q2, despite continued pressure on revenue [1][2]. - The cement industry experienced a significant profit increase, with a notable rise in companies' willingness to raise prices since August [2][36]. - The construction index decreased by 1.27% in the week of August 25-29, while the building materials index increased by 0.53% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Summary - The construction index fell by 1.27%, while the building materials index rose by 0.53% during the week of August 25-29 [3][10]. - Year-to-date, the construction index has increased by 7.09%, ranking 23rd out of 29 industries, while the building materials index has risen by 17.91%, ranking 15th [3][10]. Cement Industry Data - In H1 2025, the cement industry achieved a total revenue of 1334.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.56%, but net profit surged by 901% [2][36]. - The gross profit margin improved by 6.10 percentage points to 22.20%, and the net profit margin increased by 4.86 percentage points to 4.99% [2][36]. Key Company Orders and Valuation - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on low-growth, low-valuation, and low-holding construction and building materials sectors, particularly large-cap stocks [3][10]. - Recommended stocks include China Railway, China Communications Construction, and China State Construction Engineering [3][10]. Special Debt and Funding Situation - New local government special bond issuance amounted to 1879.79 billion yuan for the week of August 25-29, a decrease of 21.44% week-on-week [22][27]. - Cumulative issuance for 2025 reached 32641.36 billion yuan, an increase of 31.94% compared to the same period in 2024 [22][27]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - As of August 22, 2025, the cement dispatch rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 39.81%, while the asphalt plant operating rate fell by 1.40 percentage points to 29.30% [30][34]. - The report indicates a slight recovery in cement demand in southern regions due to reduced rainfall [48][49]. Cement Price Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the national cement market price increased by 0.5%, with notable price hikes in Ningxia and Gansu [36][38]. - The average cement price across the country was 344.3 yuan per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% [38][40]. Inventory and Shipping Rates - The national cement industry inventory ratio was 63.6%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [53][52]. - The average shipping rate for cement companies was 45.6%, with a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points [49][50].

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, showing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported revenue of 4.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.14%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 837 million yuan, up 19.93% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 2.276 billion yuan, down 32.17% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 24.2% to 381 million yuan [1]. Revenue Trends - Toll revenue slightly declined, with a total of 2.274 billion yuan in 1H25, down 2.25% year-on-year. Key toll roads like Chengle and Chengyu saw revenue increases of 0.92% and 0.52%, respectively, while Chengya and Chengren experienced declines of 2.33% and 7.21% due to new road openings and competition from railways [1]. - The company managed to reduce financial expenses by 31.0% and management expenses by 14.8%, contributing positively to profit margins [1]. Growth Prospects - The company is investing in core assets, with the Chengle Expressway expansion nearing completion and the Chengya Expressway already awarded an expansion project, which is expected to enhance toll rates and extend toll collection periods post-completion [2]. - The acquisition of Chengdu Erxinan is projected to contribute 160 million yuan in profit for 2025, along with an expected cumulative compensation of 31.48 million yuan from 2023 to 2024, indicating significant profit growth potential [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2023 to 2025, a notable increase from previous levels [2]. - The projected dividend yield for 2024 is 5.2%, positioning the company among the leaders in the highway industry, with potential yields of 5.5% and 5.8% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2]. Valuation and Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with current A-share prices reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 and 10.4 for those years, and H-share prices at 8.6 and 8.1 [2]. - The target price for A-shares is set at 6.85 yuan, suggesting a 21.9% upside potential, while the target price for H-shares is 5.61 HKD, indicating a 16.4% upside [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August, the fundamentals of PVC were bearish, with social inventories increasing to the same level as the previous year. The market is pessimistic about future exports due to India's higher - than - expected anti - dumping duties. In September, although the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is low, and the room for further decline is limited. Key factors to watch include持仓量, exports, and inventories. The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and specific trading strategies are proposed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Next Month's Outlook - **Position Volume**: PVC, as a traditional short - allocation variety, has seen its 01 contract's position volume approaching 1.2 million lots again. If there are positive news from the real estate or coking coal sectors, a phased rebound may occur due to short - covering [3]. - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, PVC exports increased by 57% year - on - year, and the export dependence rose to 19%. With the anti - dumping duties and BIS certification policies announced, the focus is on the implementation rhythm of anti - dumping duties [3]. - **Inventories**: The inventory structure of the upstream and mid - stream is differentiated. Enterprise inventories are not under high pressure, so spot prices are relatively resistant to decline. Social inventories are continuously increasing. If there is a rush to export in September and the peak domestic demand season arrives, the inflection point of social inventory reduction may appear [3]. 3.2 Operation Strategy - In the short term, the market is weakly volatile. Short positions should be gradually closed at low prices. For the V2601 contract, the focus range is [4750, 5150]. - The futures price is higher than the spot price. Industrial players should conduct hedging at high prices [4]. 3.3 Market Review - In August, PVC showed a unilateral downward trend. The V2601 contract fluctuated between 4887 and 5221, with an amplitude of 334 points. The opening price was 5167 yuan/ton (down 9 points or 0.17% from the end of last month), and the closing price was 4907 yuan/ton (down 134 points from the previous month's closing price). The market was affected by macro news and the release of new production capacity, as well as India's anti - dumping duties [7]. - The position volume of the main contract approached 1.2 million lots again, indicating intense capital games [8][10]. - As of August 28, the V01 Changzhou basis was - 246 yuan/ton, and the warrant volume was increasing, indicating strong willingness of industrial players to sell and hedge at high prices [13]. - As of August 28, the V9 - 1 spread was - 151 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 232 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread continued the inter - month reverse spread, and the 3 - 5 spread strengthened month - on - month [16]. 3.4 Supply - The capacity utilization rate has remained above 75% since the beginning of the year, and the cumulative output from week 1 to 34 increased by 4.4% year - on - year. From July to September, new production capacity of 1.1 million tons was put into operation. Although the new maintenance in September is slightly greater than the restart volume, the supply side is still under pressure [19]. - In September, only Zhongtai, Taizhou Liancheng, and Shaanxi Beiyuan with a total capacity of 2.25 million tons have maintenance plans, while the restart of 800,000 tons of capacity by Haipinglevel and Formosa Plastics is planned, so the positive impact of maintenance is limited [20]. 3.5 Demand - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 5.85% [23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Demand**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 11.87 million tons (down 2.8% year - on - year), indicating weak domestic demand. Exports were 2.29 million tons (up 830,000 tons or 57% year - on - year). In July, exports were 330,000 tons (up 113% year - on - year). However, due to India's anti - dumping duties, future exports to India may decline [26]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of Thursday, enterprise inventory was 345,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. Since July, enterprises have increased pre - sales, and the inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past four years [29]. - **Social Inventory**: As of Thursday, large and small sample social inventories were 450,000 tons and 720,000 tons respectively. Social inventories have increased to the same level as the previous year, and if the current inventory increase rate continues, it is expected to reach a record high at the end of September [32]. 3.7 Profit From July, due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, the profits of chlor - alkali enterprises have been significantly repaired. However, considering the future supply - demand pattern, there is still room for profit compression for upstream enterprises [35].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu segment, has recently experienced a significant rebound after a prolonged downturn, with notable gains in stock prices and a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [5][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The baijiu sector has seen an increase of over 8% in the last five trading days, with specific stocks like JiuGuiJiu rising over 30% and major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye rebounding nearly 5% [5]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the baijiu sector stands at 19.04, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is at 5.05, indicating that the sector is undervalued compared to historical averages [5]. Group 2: Fund Performance - Over the past year, the average return of 370 baijiu-themed funds reached 24.11%, with 93.51% of these funds showing positive returns [7][8]. - The top-performing fund, Anxin Value Growth A, managed by Nie Shilin, achieved a return of 53.62%, significantly outperforming its benchmark [8][9]. Group 3: Fund Holdings - As of the end of Q2, the top three holdings in Anxin Value Growth A included Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with respective holding ratios of 9.60%, 5.81%, and 4.21% [9]. - The fund manager expressed optimism about the market's transition towards high-quality development, focusing on consumer and advanced manufacturing sectors [9]. Group 4: Long-term Performance - Over the past three years, the average return of 309 baijiu-themed funds was approximately -7.07%, with only 32.36% of these funds achieving positive returns [11]. - The top three funds over this period were Baoying Quality Selection A, Baoying Brand Consumption A, and Penghua Quality Selection A, with returns of 41.20%, 31.09%, and 26.96% respectively [12][14].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a recent recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market, which has seen a significant increase in stock prices after a prolonged downturn [1] - As of August 25, the baijiu sector has experienced an over 8% increase in the last five trading days, with individual stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu rising over 30% and major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye rebounding nearly 5% [1] - Current valuation metrics for the baijiu sector show a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.04 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 5.05, indicating that the sector is undervalued compared to historical averages and other indices [1][2] Group 2 - Citic Securities suggests that the decline in sales, wholesale prices, and performance in the baijiu industry is beginning to stabilize, indicating a potential bottoming out of the market [3] - The report provides insights into the top-performing baijiu-themed funds over the past year and three years, with a focus on those with significant holdings in baijiu stocks [3] Group 3 - Over the past year, the average return of 370 baijiu-themed funds reached 24.11%, with 93.51% of these funds showing positive returns [4] - The top three funds in the past year are managed by Anxin Fund, with the leading fund, Anxin Value Growth A, achieving a return of 53.62% [6][7] - In the last three years, the average return of 309 baijiu-themed funds was approximately -7.07%, with only 32.36% of funds showing positive returns [9] - The top three funds over the past three years include "Baoying Quality Selection A" with a return of 41.20%, significantly outperforming its benchmark [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, but it's not advisable to chase the price at present. Hold short - term long positions. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have upward potential [2] - For methanol, suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] - For urea, the domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] - For rubber, it's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [10][13] - For PVC, due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] - For benzene - ethylene, the long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [17][18] - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] - For polypropylene, it's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] - For PX, the valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] - For PTA, the supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] - For ethylene glycol, the supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.29, or 0.46%, to $63.77; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.12, or 0.18%, to $67.79; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.30 yuan, or 0.47%, to 487 yuan [1] - **Data**: In the European ARA weekly data, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 8.73 million barrels, a 0.29% decrease; diesel inventory increased by 1.27 million barrels to 15.16 million barrels, a 9.13% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 6.64 million barrels, a 1.60% decrease; naphtha inventory decreased by 0.75 million barrels to 4.97 million barrels, a 13.07% decrease; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.17 million barrels to 7.45 million barrels, a 2.27% increase; the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.55 million barrels to 42.95 million barrels, a 1.31% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 20 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 110 [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coal prices are rising, costs are increasing, and domestic production has bottomed out and is rising. Overseas device operation has returned to medium - high levels, and subsequent imports will also increase rapidly. The port MTO device is shut down and is expected to resume at the end of the month. Traditional demand is currently weak. The market still has expectations for the peak season and the return of MTO, and the futures price shows signs of stabilizing, but the port inventory is still rising rapidly [4] - **Strategy**: Suggest short - term unilateral observation and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity of inter - month spread after the improvement of supply and demand [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 22, the 01 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 1739 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 19 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Daily production is at a high level, and enterprise profits are at a low level. Supply pressure still exists. The start - up of compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. Domestic demand lacks support as a whole, and exports are continuing. Port inventory has risen again, and the current demand variable mainly lies in exports [6] - **Strategy**: The domestic urea faces a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The price will remain range - bound before substantial positive factors appear. It's recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded after a decline, following the collective rebound of industrial products [9] - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help a limited increase in rubber production. The seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.278 million tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons or 0.85% from the previous period. As of August 17, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 485,400 (- 18,000) tons [12] - **Strategy**: It's expected that the rubber price will fluctuate and consolidate. It's advisable to wait and see temporarily. Partially close the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 15 yuan to 5019 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 15) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 141 (- 9) yuan/ton [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has also decreased. Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level within the year, the valuation pressure is large, the number of maintenance is small, and production is at a historical high. Domestic downstream operating rates are at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate [15] - **Strategy**: Due to the reality of strong supply, weak demand and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It's recommended to wait and see [15] Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price have both risen, and the basis has weakened [17] - **Supply and Demand**: The macro - economic sentiment in the market is good, and there is still support from the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the operation of benzene - ethylene has been continuously rising. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene has continued to accumulate significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S has fluctuated and increased [17][18] - **Strategy**: The long - term BZN may recover. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, the benzene - ethylene price may rebound [18] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7290 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The basis was - 96 yuan/ton, weakening by 4 yuan/ton [20] - **Supply and Demand**: The market is looking forward to favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still support from the cost side. The spot price has risen, and the downward valuation space of PE is limited. The overall inventory is being reduced from a high level, and the demand side, such as the raw material preparation for agricultural films, has started to stock up, and the overall operating rate has stabilized with low - level fluctuations [20] - **Strategy**: The long - term contradiction shifts from the cost - led downward trend to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy. The polyethylene price may fluctuate upward [20] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen. The main contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7050 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 12 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate may gradually recover, and the supply of propylene will gradually return. The downstream operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There are only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity to be put into operation in August. The seasonal peak season may be coming, but under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21] - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [21] PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 8 yuan to 6966 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 857 dollars. The basis was 79 yuan (+ 20), and the 11 - 1 spread was 66 yuan (- 2) [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate in China and Asia has increased. Some overseas devices have restarted. The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The import volume of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle of August has increased year - on - year. The inventory at the end of June has decreased month - on - month [23] - **Strategy**: The valuation is currently at a neutral level. The terminal and polyester are expected to continue to recover. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the arrival of the peak season [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 8 yuan to 4868 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 60 yuan/ton to 4870 yuan. The basis was 22 yuan (+ 15), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan (- 6) [25] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate has decreased, and there have been many unexpected short - term maintenance cases. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The social inventory has decreased [25] - **Strategy**: The supply - side destocking pattern has been formed, and the processing fee is expected to continue to repair. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the improvement of downstream performance in the peak season [25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 1 yuan to 4474 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 7 yuan to 4518 yuan. The basis was 92 yuan (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 54 yuan (0) [26] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - side operating rate has increased, and many domestic and overseas devices have restarted or adjusted their loads. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the terminal operating rate has also increased. The import arrival forecast is 54,000 tons, and the port inventory has decreased by 6000 tons [26] - **Strategy**: The supply is still in excess. The mid - term port inventory is expected to enter a restocking cycle. The valuation has a downward pressure in the mid - term [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][6][17] Core Views - The company's revenue from supply chain trade, cross-border multimodal transport, and land port projects is projected to be 65.72%, 27.96%, and 5.64% respectively in 2024, with gross profit contributions of 42.41%, 41.63%, and 15.79% [1] - The company has faced pressure in its Mongolian coal business, with a 8.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports and a 39.6% drop in import prices, but there are signs of potential recovery due to policy changes [2] - The African cross-border logistics network is developing, with the acquisition of BHL expected to enhance operational efficiency and expand into broader international markets [3] - The company is considered undervalued with a projected PE of approximately 12 times for 2025, and an estimated dividend yield of around 5% for 2026 [4] Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 6,995.26 million in 2023 to 11,533.70 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 44.85% in 2023 and a projected 12.61% in 2027 [10][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 1,038.79 million in 2023 to 1,204.52 million in 2025, before increasing to 1,753.88 million in 2027 [10][11] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to rise from 1,297.88 million in 2023 to 2,330.67 million in 2027, indicating a strong operational performance [10][11]