Core Viewpoint - The current environment is favorable for credit bonds, with analysts suggesting that the time for the central bank to implement a selective easing policy has arrived, driven by tariff impacts and positive market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Bond Market Performance - Credit bonds have shown strong performance, with yields declining significantly due to a shift towards a looser funding environment and the impact of unexpected U.S. tariff policies [2]. - As of April 1, the AA-rated one-year credit spread narrowed by 27 basis points (BP), while mid to long-term lower-rated bonds saw spreads narrow by over 10 BP [2]. - City investment bonds have outperformed the overall credit bond market, with three-year bonds across all ratings narrowing by over 10 BP [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Credit Bonds - April is typically a window for credit bond allocation in the second quarter, with historical data indicating that credit spreads often narrow from April to May [3]. - Increased market demand and reduced supply are expected to contribute to the narrowing of credit spreads during this period, with over 1 trillion yuan in growth in wealth management products historically observed in April [3]. - Analysts suggest that if the central bank's easing policy is implemented in the second quarter, April is likely to be a key period for credit bond allocation [3]. Group 3: Institutional Preferences - City investment bonds are favored by institutions due to their perceived lower risk and improved credit binding with local governments following debt resolution policies [4]. - The trading volume of lower-rated city investment bonds has increased significantly, particularly in regions like Hebei, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, and Chongqing, with monthly turnover rates exceeding 15% [4]. - Analysts recommend a "downward strategy" for city investment bonds, particularly focusing on bonds from central provinces while being cautious of high-profile regions [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Institutions are advised to actively position themselves in credit bonds, leveraging the current favorable conditions for potential capital gains [6][7]. - Suggested strategies include focusing on AA-rated bonds with maturities of three years or more for short-term capital gains, and a "long duration + moderate downward" strategy for broader credit bond allocation [7]. - For risk-averse investors, AAA or AA+ rated bonds with maturities of five to seven years are recommended, balancing potential returns with risk management [7].

Group 1 - The bond market is gradually recovering due to the central bank's continuous net injection and the rising expectations of reserve requirement ratio cuts [1] - Hai Fu Tong Fund is currently the largest and most diverse fund company managing bond ETFs in the market, with its credit bond ETF (511190) increasing over 41 basis points in the past week [1] - The credit bond ETF (511190) has seen a net inflow of over 2.22 million yuan in the past week, with a total growth in scale of 2.32 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Industrial Securities suggests that holding short-duration credit bonds is a good choice in the short term, considering the fluctuating funding environment and market volatility [2] - The recommendation is to gradually shift from short to long credit bond allocations as the interest rate downtrend becomes clearer [2]

债市情绪好转 三月初债市遭遇"倒春寒"，但进入中下旬，牛市氛围生变的情况发生好转。 尤其聚焦信用债市场，3月17日至3月21日，资金面"先紧后松"，为了应对税期因素扰动，央行增加 了逆回购投放，释放呵护信号，债市做多情绪得以提振。信用债继续修复，收益率下行、利差收窄，1 年至3年期品种表现占优，利差收窄幅度在9BP至11BP之间。 以城投债为例，1年至3年期收益率下行幅度较大，在7BP至10BP之间；5年期品种的下行幅度在 3BP至5BP之间；15年和20年期超长端高等级品种的利率下行幅度在4BP左右。 不仅如此，截至3月25日收盘，银行间信用债市场同样不改向好走势，收益率整体下行。具体来 看，中债中短期票据收益率曲线（AAA）3M期限下探1BP至1.95%，3年期收益率回落1BP至2.02%，5 年期收益率下行3BP至2.11%。中债中短期票据收益率曲线（A）1年期下行1BP至7.53%。 "信用债的买盘热度在持续回升，目前城投债和产业债的成交笔数环比增加，TKN占比已升至75% 左右。"华西证券研究所固收分析师姜丹指出，"不仅如此，城投债的成交呈现出了'拉久期+下沉'趋 势。上周3年至5年期的城投债成交占 ...