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公募股基持仓&债基久期跟踪测算周报:股票加仓通信,债基久期小幅下降-20250803
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 05:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - From July 28 - August 1, 2025, the CSI 300 declined by 1.75%, while the overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds remained unchanged at 84.58% [3][7]. - The top 5 industries held by active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds this week are Electronics (13.52%), Electric Power Equipment (8.33%), Medicine and Biology (7.37%), Communication (6.35%), and Automobile (6.19%) [4][17]. - The top 3 industries with increased positions are Communication (+0.66%), National Defense and Military Industry (+0.58%), and Comprehensive (+0.53%); the top 3 industries with decreased positions are Computer (-0.39%), Bank (-0.35%), and Automobile (-0.30%) [4][17]. - The yield to maturity of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond decreased by 5bps this week. The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.00 to 3.66 years, at the 99.70% quantile in the past 5 years [4][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fund Stock Position Estimation - The overall estimated stock position of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds has shown a volatile trend recently. Compared with the quarterly report, it has decreased by 3.64%. Active equity funds' estimated stock position increased by 0.39% to 88.69%, while partial - equity hybrid funds' position decreased by 0.08% to 83.64% [7]. - This week, the overall increase or decrease in positions of active equity and partial - equity hybrid funds was mostly concentrated in [0%, 1%] (496 funds), followed by [-1%, 0%) (180 funds) [11]. - Funds with sizes of 2 - 5 billion, 8 - 10 billion, and over 10 billion slightly increased their positions, while other - sized funds slightly decreased their positions [11]. - In terms of fund holding styles, growth stocks accounted for a higher proportion, and both value and growth stocks were slightly reduced this week. Small - cap stocks accounted for a relatively high proportion, with large - cap stocks slightly increasing positions, and mid - cap and small - cap stocks slightly decreasing positions [14]. 3.2 Bond Fund Duration Estimation - The median estimated duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.00 to 3.66 years, at the 99.70% quantile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 3.46 years. The duration divergence decreased, with the estimated duration standard deviation decreasing by 0.03 to 1.89 years. The median duration of short - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.08 to 1.02 years [4][20]. - The median duration of credit bond funds increased by 0.00 to 3.15 years, with 8% of actively - operated funds and 24% of conservatively - operated funds. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.28 to 4.85 years, with 45% of actively - operated funds and 7% of conservatively - operated funds [4]. - The median estimated duration of credit bond funds was concentrated in [3, 3.5) (122 funds), followed by [3.5, 4) (118 funds). The median estimated duration of interest - rate bond funds was concentrated in [5,) (181 funds), followed by [4, 4.5) (50 funds) [26]. - Among credit bond funds, 8.02% of funds actively adjusted their duration, and 24.43% adjusted conservatively. Among interest - rate bond funds, 45.01% of funds actively adjusted their duration, and 7.28% adjusted conservatively [27]. - The yield to maturity of the 1 - year China Development Bank bond decreased by 3bps. The median estimated duration of short - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.08 to 1.02 years, at the 95.00% quantile in the past 5 years. The average median duration in the past 4 weeks was 1.02 years. The duration divergence increased, with the estimated duration standard deviation increasing by 0.00 to 0.48 years. The estimated duration of passive policy - bank bond funds increased by 0.10 to 3.87 years [31].
固定收益点评:大幅增加久期——债基2025Q2季报分析
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-31 09:21
Group 1: Fund Size and Growth - The total net asset value of four types of bond funds reached 9.26 trillion yuan in Q2 2025, an increase of 561.7 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter[14] - The medium- and long-term pure bond funds grew by 269.2 billion yuan to 6.46 trillion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds increased by 172.4 billion yuan to 1.14 trillion yuan[14] - The net asset values of primary and secondary bond funds were 850.2 billion yuan and 807.7 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 81.6 billion yuan and 38.5 billion yuan from the previous quarter[14] Group 2: Asset Allocation and Bond Holdings - Bond positions increased significantly, with a net purchase of 800.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025 after a reduction of 458.4 billion yuan in Q1[21] - The market value of bonds held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds was 7.76 trillion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds held 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting increases of 396.2 billion yuan and 224.7 billion yuan, respectively[21] - The proportion of bond holdings in total assets for the four types of bond funds increased, with medium- and long-term pure bond funds at 97.75% and short-term pure bond funds at 97.81%[21] Group 3: Leverage and Duration - The average leverage ratios for medium- and long-term pure bond funds, short-term pure bond funds, primary bond funds, and secondary bond funds were 120%, 114%, 117%, and 114%, respectively, showing increases from the previous quarter[26] - The average duration of medium- and long-term interest rate bond funds rose by 0.81 years to 4.23 years, while medium- and long-term credit bond funds increased by 0.94 years to 3.42 years, marking the largest single-period increase on record[6] Group 4: Credit Quality and Composition - The proportion of high-rated credit bonds increased, with AAA-rated bonds in medium- and long-term pure bond funds rising by 1.23 percentage points to 96.10%[59] - The market value of credit bonds held by medium- and long-term pure bond funds was 3.70 trillion yuan, with an increase of 206.2 billion yuan, while short-term pure bond funds held 1.1 trillion yuan in credit bonds, reflecting an increase of 184.7 billion yuan[40]
二级债久期逼近4.5年~品种久期跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-28 09:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of July 25, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.19 years and 3.46 years respectively, both at over 90% of the historical quantiles since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.45 years, 3.86 years, and 2.74 years respectively. The bank perpetual bonds were at a relatively low historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.50 years, 2.31 years, 3.65 years, and 1.22 years respectively. The securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds were at lower historical quantiles, while the leasing company bonds were at a higher historical quantile [3][12]. - The coupon duration crowding index decreased and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and slightly rose this week compared to last week. Currently, it is at the 17.60% level since March 2021 [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term was around 2.19 years. Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds' duration extended to nearly 8 years, while Guangdong prefecture - level city urban investment bonds' trading duration shortened to around 2.69 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Henan provincial, Shandong prefecture - level city, Jiangsu district - county level, and Fujian district - county level had exceeded 90%, and the duration of Chongqing district - county level urban investment bonds was approaching the highest since 2021 [4][22]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading term was around 3.46 years, slightly shorter than last week. The trading duration of the coal industry shortened to 1.85 years, and that of the building materials industry extended to 3.79 years. The real - estate industry's trading duration was at a relatively low historical level, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, commercial retail, and building materials were all at over 90% of the historical quantiles [4][30]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 2.74 years, at the 98.6% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.45 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 3.86 years, at the 72.1% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [4][35]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 82.6%, 57%, 26.9%, and 69.4% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds slightly extended compared to last week [4][38]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term was around 2.19 years. There were significant regional differences. For example, Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds had a long duration, while Guangdong prefecture - level city urban investment bonds had a short duration. Some regional urban investment bonds' durations were at high historical quantiles [4][22]. - Industrial bonds: The overall weighted average trading term was around 3.46 years, with different trends in different industries. The coal industry's duration shortened, and the building materials industry's duration extended. Different industries were at different historical quantiles [4][30]. - Commercial bank bonds: All three types of bonds (general commercial financial bonds, secondary capital bonds, and bank perpetual bonds) had their durations extended compared to last year, with different historical quantiles [4][35]. - Other financial bonds: There were differences in the durations and historical quantiles among different types of bonds, and the durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds slightly increased [4][38].
二级债久期逼近4.5年:品种久期跟踪
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-28 08:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of July 25, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.19 years and 3.46 years respectively, both at over 90% of the quantile levels since March 2021 [2][10]. - The ticket - duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased, currently at the 17.60% level since March 2021 [13]. Summary by Catalog 1. All - Variety Duration Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, general commercial financial bonds, securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 2.19 years, 3.46 years, 4.45 years, 3.86 years, 2.74 years, 1.50 years, 2.31 years, 3.65 years, and 1.22 years respectively [2][10]. - The ticket - duration congestion index reached its peak in March 2024 and then declined, rising slightly this week compared to last week, and is currently at 17.60% of the level since March 2021 [13]. 2. Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration hovered around 2.19 years. Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds' duration extended to nearly 8 years, while Guangdong prefecture - level city urban investment bonds' duration shortened to around 2.69 years [3][17]. - The duration quantiles of urban investment bonds in regions such as Henan provincial, Shandong prefecture - level city, Jiangsu district - county level, and Fujian district - county level have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Chongqing district - county level urban investment bonds is approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration shortened slightly compared to last week, generally around 3.46 years. The trading duration of the coal industry shortened to 1.85 years, while that of the building materials industry extended to 3.79 years [3][22]. - The trading duration of the real estate industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, commerce and retail, and building materials are at over 90% of the historical quantiles [3][22]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 2.74 years, at the 98.6% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][25]. - The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.45 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][25]. - The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 3.86 years, at the 72.1% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][25]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 82.6%, 57%, 26.9%, and 69.4% of the historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities sub - bonds slightly extended compared to last week [4][28].
品种久期跟踪:二级债久期创年内新高
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-20 09:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of July 18, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.40 years and 3.52 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.42 years, 3.67 years, and 2.48 years respectively. The durations of secondary capital bonds and general commercial financial bonds were at high levels. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities sub - bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.57 years, 1.78 years, 3.45 years, and 1.28 years respectively. Securities company bonds and securities sub - bonds were at lower historical quantiles, while leasing company bonds were at higher historical quantiles [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and slightly rose this week, currently at the 21.30% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Full - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term hovered around 2.40 years. The durations of Guangdong prefecture - level and Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 4.5 years, while the trading duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 0.44 years. The duration historical quantiles of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level, Fujian prefecture - level, Zhejiang district - level, and Chongqing district - level exceeded 90%, and the duration of Jiangsu district - level urban investment bonds approached the highest since 2021 [3][16]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading term shortened slightly compared to last week, generally around 3.52 years. The trading duration of the pharmaceutical and biological industry shortened to 2.88 years, while that of the building decoration industry extended to 4.45 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry was at a lower historical quantile, and industries such as public utilities, transportation, coal, commercial retail, and building materials were all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][23]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 2.48 years, at the 96.4% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.42 years, at the 98.6% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.67 years, at the 65.7% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][26]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities sub - bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 73.3%, 19.5%, 39.5%, and 76% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities sub - bonds slightly extended compared to last week [4][29]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - The coupon duration congestion index is the reciprocal of the standard deviation of durations among varieties. A larger index means a smaller standard deviation of duration changes among different varieties, indicating more consistent behavior. It should be analyzed in combination with the duration changes of each variety [15]. - The report provides various charts to show the average trading duration, historical quantiles of durations, and duration changes of different types of bonds, including credit bonds, non - financial credit bonds, urban investment bonds in different provinces, industrial bonds, commercial bank bonds, and other financial bonds [9]
品种久期跟踪:久期的极限位
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-07-13 08:01
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The weighted average trading durations of mainstream bond varieties are approaching their peaks again. As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are at 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and insurance company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it dropped and this week decreased slightly compared to last week, currently at the 17.8% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 All - Variety Duration Overview - As of July 11, the weighted trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds are 2.44 years and 3.77 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds are 4.16 years, 3.74 years, and 2.95 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.43 years, 1.83 years, 3.56 years, and 1.20 years respectively [2][10]. 3.2 Variety Microscope 3.2.1 Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration hovers around 2.44 years. The durations of urban investment bonds in Guangdong prefecture - level cities and Hebei provincial - level are over 5 years, while the trading duration of Shanxi prefecture - level urban investment bonds has shortened to around 1.35 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, and Chongqing district - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds are approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. 3.2.2 Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration has slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 3.77 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry has shortened to 1.78 years, while that of the public utilities industry has lengthened to 4.62 years. The trading duration of the real - estate industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, commercial retail, and building materials are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. 3.2.3 Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds has shortened to 2.95 years, at the 99.1% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds has shortened to 4.16 years, at the 92.4% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds has lengthened to 3.74 years, at the 68.3% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. 3.2.4 Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 79%, 23%, 16%, and 68% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of insurance company bonds and securities subordinated bonds have slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][25].
久期如何极致演绎?
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 14:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of June 27, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.18 years and 3.39 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.21 years, 3.54 years, and 2.07 years respectively, with general commercial financial bonds at a relatively low historical level. For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.54 years, 2.28 years, 3.18 years, and 1.45 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a high historical quantile [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Full - Variety Duration Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.18 years and 3.39 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, secondary capital bonds had a duration of 4.21 years (95% quantile), bank perpetual bonds had a duration of 3.54 years (62.6% quantile), and general commercial financial bonds had a duration of 2.07 years (56.3% quantile). For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.54 years (33.3% quantile), 2.28 years (56.3% quantile), 3.18 years (66% quantile), and 1.45 years (87.8% quantile) respectively [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined after reaching its peak in March 2024 and then slightly increased. This week, it decreased slightly compared to last week and was currently at the 45% level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration hovered around 2.18 years. Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds had a duration of over 8 years, while Fujian district - county - level urban investment bonds' trading duration shortened to around 1.24 years. The duration quantiles of urban investment bonds in regions such as Guangdong prefecture - level cities, Fujian prefecture - level cities, Hebei prefecture - level cities, and Shanxi provincial - level regions exceeded 90%, and the durations of Hunan provincial - level and Henan prefecture - level urban investment bonds were approaching their highest levels since 2021 [3][16]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration was around 3.39 years, slightly longer than last week. The trading duration of the steel industry shortened to 1.66 years, while that of the food and beverage industry lengthened to 2.31 years. The real estate industry's trading duration was at a low historical quantile, while industries such as public utilities, transportation, retail, and building materials were at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds shortened to 2.07 years (56.3% quantile), lower than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.21 years (95% quantile), higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.54 years (62.6% quantile), also higher than the same period last year [3][24]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, with quantiles of 66%, 56.3%, 33.3%, and 87.8% respectively. The overall duration of other financial bonds slightly shortened compared to last week [3][27].
债市机构行为周报(6月第4周):还有哪些债券可以挖掘?-20250622
Huaan Securities· 2025-06-22 09:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 20Y Treasury bond market may not be over yet, with potential for the 20Y - 30Y spread to compress further, and the 20Y Treasury bond may be more cost - effective than the 50Y Treasury bond [2][3][12] - Investors can look for opportunities in some old bonds with certain liquidity and spread compression potential, but the follow - up odds of 230023 may be insufficient [3][13] - In the current bond market environment of extending duration and increasing leverage, there is no need to overly worry about reversal risks before the end of the month, and attention should be paid to the right - side response after sudden event shocks [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Institutional Behavior Review: Which Bonds Can Be Explored? - **Yield Curve**: Both Treasury and China Development Bank bond yields generally declined. For Treasury bonds, the 1Y yield dropped 4bp, 3Y dropped 3bp, 5Y dropped 4bp, 7Y dropped about 2bp, 10Y changed less than 1bp, 15Y dropped 3bp, and 30Y dropped 1bp. For China Development Bank bonds, the 1Y yield dropped about 1bp, 3Y dropped 2bp, 5Y dropped 3bp, 7Y and 10Y dropped about 2bp, 15Y dropped 5bp, and 30Y remained flat [15] - **Term Spread**: Treasury bond spreads showed deeper inversion and short - end spreads widened, while China Development Bank bond spreads had a differentiated trend with long - end spreads widening [18][19] 3.2 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Conditions - **Leverage Ratio**: The leverage ratio rose to 107.85%. As of June 20, it was about 107.85%, up 0.38pct from last Friday and 0.35pct from this Monday [21] - **Average Daily Repo Turnover**: The average daily turnover of pledged repos was 8.3 trillion yuan, with an average overnight share of 89.71%. The average daily turnover increased compared to last week [28] - **Funding Conditions**: Bank funding supply fluctuated upward. DR007 first rose and then fell, R007 first fell and then rose. 1YFR007 and 5YFR007 both declined [33][34] 3.3 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds rose to 2.82 years (de - leveraged) and 3.07 years (including leverage). On June 20, the median duration (de - leveraged) was 2.82 years, up 0.04 years from last Friday; the median duration (including leverage) was 3.07 years, up 0.11 years from last Friday [44] - **Duration of Bond Fund Types**: The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) remained at 3.69 years, up 0.02 years from last Friday; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) rose to 2.88 years, up 0.15 years from last Friday [47] 3.4 Comparison of Generic Strategies - **Sino - US Yield Spread**: The overall Sino - US yield spread widened. The 1Y spread narrowed by about 2bp, while the 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y spreads widened [51] - **Implied Tax Rate**: The short - end implied tax rate widened, while the medium - and long - end narrowed [52] 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balances On June 20, the lending concentration trends of the active 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds rose, while those of the second - active 10Y Treasury bond, the active 10Y China Development Bank bond, and the second - active 10Y China Development Bank bond declined [57]
普信债久期在高位
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-06-15 11:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of June 13, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.35 years and 2.98 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.90 years, 3.70 years, and 2.03 years respectively, with general commercial financial bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.05 years, 3.56 years, and 1.62 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined after reaching its peak in March 2024 and then slightly increased this week, currently at the 53.10% level since March 2021 [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Full - variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 2.35 years, 2.98 years, 3.90 years, 3.70 years, and 2.03 years respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.05 years, 3.56 years, and 1.62 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index is currently at the 53.10% level since March 2021 [13]. 2. Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading term of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.35 years. The duration of Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 6 years, while that of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 0.81 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level, Chongqing district - level, Guangdong prefecture - level, Fujian district - level, Sichuan provincial, and Henan prefecture - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of urban investment bonds in Anhui prefecture - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level, and Guangdong prefecture - level are approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened slightly compared to last week, generally around 2.98 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened significantly to 1.28 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.35 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while those of public utilities, transportation, commerce and retail, non - ferrous metals and other industries are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of securities subordinated bonds shortened to 2.05 years, at the 45% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 3.90 years, at the 78.6% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.70 years, at the 66.8% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 79.3%, 45%, 50.4%, and 95.9% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds lengthened slightly compared to last week [4][26].
品种久期跟踪:品种久期的进与退
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-05-18 09:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of May 16, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at lower historical quantiles and insurance company bonds and leasing company bonds at higher historical quantiles [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased. After reaching its highest value in March 2024, it decreased but slightly increased this week compared to last week, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Full - variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.21 years and 2.72 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.09 years, 3.52 years, and 2.21 years respectively. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.33 years, 3.51 years, and 1.50 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined and then slightly increased, currently at the 53.7% level since March 2021 [12]. 3.2 Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.21 years. The durations of Sichuan provincial and Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 6 years, while the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds significantly shortened. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in certain regions such as Jiangsu prefecture - level cities, Jiangsu district - level counties, Zhejiang prefecture - level cities, Beijing district - level counties, Guangdong district - level counties, Sichuan province, Henan province, Jiangxi prefecture - level cities, Anhui province, Anhui prefecture - level cities, Shaanxi province, Guangxi province, and Yunnan province exceeded 90%. The duration of Jiangsu district - level county urban investment bonds approached the highest level since 2021 [3][16]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week, generally around 2.72 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry significantly shortened to 1.30 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.17 years. The trading durations of industries such as food and beverage were at lower historical quantiles, while those of public utilities, transportation, steel, and non - ferrous metals were at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of bank perpetual bonds slightly shortened to 3.52 years this week, at the 63.8% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 4.09 years, at the 91.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of general commercial financial bonds lengthened to 2.21 years, at the 78.2% historical quantile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at 78.4%, 58.7%, 49.5%, and 93.5% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, and leasing company bonds slightly lengthened compared to last week [4][26].