关税上调

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美联储古尔斯比:关税上调似乎远未结束,存在通胀持续的风险。
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 22:04
Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicates that tariff increases seem far from over, suggesting ongoing inflation risks [1] Group 1 - Tariff hikes are likely to continue, which may contribute to persistent inflationary pressures in the economy [1]
【环球财经】欧洲央行行长拉加德:欧元区第三季度经济增速将放缓
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 14:21
Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde indicated that the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to slow in the third quarter due to the fading "front-running" effect from prior tariff expectations and the impact of new tariffs [1] Economic Impact - The "front-running" effect refers to importers placing orders early and increasing inventory in anticipation of tariff hikes, which temporarily boosts trade and output, followed by a subsequent decline [1] - In the first quarter of this year, sectors with high exports to the U.S., such as pharmaceuticals, experienced growth that exceeded expectations [1] - The slowdown in Eurozone economic growth was already evident in the second quarter of this year [1] Tariff Changes - According to a recent trade agreement between the EU and the U.S., tariffs on Eurozone goods are expected to be higher than those prior to April, with the effective average tariff rate from the U.S. on Eurozone goods projected to be between 12% and 16% [1] - This new tariff level is lower than the previously considered scenario of "over 20%" but still presents uncertainty, particularly regarding specific tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [1] Labor Market and Trade Relations - The labor market in the Eurozone remains generally robust, with an unemployment rate of 6.2% as of June [1] - While the U.S. continues to be a significant trading partner for Europe, there is a call for Europe to diversify its trade relationships to enhance resilience and leverage its export-oriented economy [1]
国金高频图鉴 | 7月外需强于内需&韩国出口高频走弱
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-08-17 09:56
Economic Data Summary - In July, economic data showed that external demand was stronger than internal demand, with production growth outpacing demand growth. The industrial output and service production index in constant prices grew by 5.7% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, while prices remained at a low level for the year [2][3][4] - The retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month. Fixed asset investment for the first seven months saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.2 percentage points to 1.6%, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments all showing a downward trend [3][4] Automotive Sales Trends - In early August, automotive sales turned negative, with retail sales of passenger cars from August 1 to 10 reaching 452,000 units, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year. Factors contributing to this decline included reduced "trade-in" incentives, diminished promotional discounts, and lower loan rebates [6][10] - The outlook for automotive sales remains weak, although the third batch of subsidy funds was distributed in late July, which may gradually restart "trade-in" programs in some regions. However, the intensity of price wars in the automotive sector has decreased, leading to higher consumer purchase costs and sustained high levels of consumer hesitation [10] U.S. Tariff Increases - In June, the U.S. customs reported an increase in tariff rates, with the overall tariff rate rising to 10%. The tariff rate on China decreased from 48.2% in May to 40.3% in June, with expectations that it will stabilize around 40% moving forward, which is an increase of 29.3 percentage points compared to 2024 [11][13] - Tariff rates for other major trading partners, such as Vietnam, Japan, and Germany, also increased to 9.3%, 15.9%, and 11.8%, respectively, which may further suppress U.S. import demand [14] South Korea Export Data - In early August, South Korea's export data showed a decline, with exports falling by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten days of August, following two months of positive growth. This decline is attributed to the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on South Korean goods [15][17] - The number of container ships departing from China to the U.S. remained low, while the number heading to Vietnam also began to decline in early August. However, China's port cargo throughput and container throughput showed a significant rebound in the second week of August, with week-on-week increases of 10.9% and 19.6%, respectively [17] Commodity Price Trends - The prices of major commodities showed a weak performance in early August, with 18 out of 50 tracked production materials experiencing price increases, while 29 saw declines. Notably, coking coal and coke prices led the gains, while agricultural products and non-ferrous metals performed poorly [17]
宏观经济点评:7月经济数据公布,汽车销量转负
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 08:21
Economic Data Summary - July economic data indicates that external demand is stronger than internal demand, production is stronger than consumption, and constant price metrics outperform current price metrics[4] - In July, industrial output and service production indices grew by 5.7% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, with GDP growth estimated at around 5% in constant prices[4] - Retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month, while fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Automotive Market Insights - In August, national retail sales of passenger cars reached 452,000 units from August 1-10, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year[7] - The automotive market has been negatively impacted by reduced "trade-in" policy effectiveness and declining promotional efforts, leading to a 1.5% year-on-year drop in July retail sales[7] Trade and Tariff Developments - In June, the U.S. tariff rate increased to 10%, with tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 48.2% in May to 40.3% in June[11] - The tariff rates for major trading partners like Vietnam, Japan, and Germany also increased, potentially suppressing U.S. import demand[11] Commodity Price Trends - Overall commodity prices showed weakness in early August, with coking coal and coke prices rising by 9.6% and 3.6% respectively compared to late July[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound to around -3% year-on-year due to low base effects from the previous year[16] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Ongoing geopolitical changes and international market fluctuations could continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]
Swatch官方为“眯眯眼模特”致歉!集团近4年在中国营收超880亿元,但去年暴跌30%,仍是最大收入来源
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-17 02:21
Core Viewpoint - Swatch Group faced backlash due to a controversial advertisement perceived as racially insensitive, leading to a public apology and removal of the related content [1][3]. Company Overview - Swatch Group is one of the largest watch manufacturing and distribution groups globally, with brands including Longines, Tissot, Omega, and Breguet in addition to its basic Swatch line [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Swatch Group reported sales of CHF 3.059 billion, a decline of 11.2% year-over-year, and a net profit drop of 88% to CHF 17 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 0.6% compared to 4.3% in the previous year [6][7]. - The Chinese market is the largest regional market for Swatch Group, generating CHF 2.63 billion in net sales in 2023, accounting for 33.3% of total sales. However, sales in this market fell by 30% in 2024 [6][8]. Market Dynamics - The Swiss watch industry is under pressure from a strong Swiss franc and declining global demand, exacerbated by a recent increase in tariffs on Swiss imports to the U.S. to 39%, which could significantly impact exports [10]. - The U.S. is the largest export market for Swiss watches, accounting for 16.8% of total exports, approximately CHF 4.4 billion [10]. - Swatch Group derives 18% of its sales from the U.S., and the company has already raised prices by 5% in response to the tariff announcement [10].
金属普跌 期铜窄幅波动【8月15日LME收盘】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 06:00
Group 1 - LME copper prices increased slightly due to a weaker dollar, with a rise of $7.5 or 0.08%, closing at $9,773.5 per ton on August 15 [2][3] - The meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, is significant as it marks their first face-to-face meeting since June 2021 [2][3] - The market is observing the outcomes of the U.S.-Russia summit, which is expected to last at least 6 to 7 hours [1][2] Group 2 - The dollar's depreciation supports the market by making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers using other currencies [5] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 20% increase in copper inventory over the past two weeks, reaching 86,361 tons, the highest level in two months [5] - Citi raised its three-month copper price forecast from $8,800 to $9,200 per ton, although this remains a bearish outlook compared to current prices due to U.S. tariff increases affecting manufacturing and economic growth [5]
详解美国7月CPI背后的关税阴影,“消费者还将看到价格进一步上涨”
第一财经· 2025-08-14 08:58
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of rising tariffs on consumer prices in the U.S., highlighting that while overall inflation remains moderate, specific goods are experiencing significant price increases due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [3][9]. Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June, indicating a growing inflationary pressure [3][5]. - The month-on-month increase in core CPI was 0.3%, the largest since January [3]. Group 2: Price Increases in Specific Goods - Prices for non-food and non-energy commodities rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in July, with notable increases in footwear (1.4%) and furniture (0.9%) [6][8]. - The price of shoes is projected to rise by 40% and clothing by 38% in the short term due to tariffs, with long-term increases expected to be 19% and 17%, respectively [6][12]. Group 3: Tariff Impact on Imports - The average tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to reach 17.3%, the highest since 1935, with predictions that it could exceed 18% [11][12]. - The tariffs are anticipated to lead to a decline in global trade over the next four quarters, with significant impacts on the prices of imported goods [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Expert Opinions - Experts suggest that while tariffs have not yet caused significant overall inflation, they are contributing to rising prices for imported goods such as furniture, toys, and appliances [9][12]. - The gradual impact of tariffs on consumer prices is expected to manifest as a slow decline in purchasing power rather than an immediate inflation spike [12][13].
人民币兑美元中间价报7.1418,下调13点!美银警告:通胀持续超目标叠加关税上调,美联储9月降息理由不足
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 01:31
据CME"美联储观察":美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为14.1%,降息25个基点的概率为85.9%。美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为5.2%,累计降息25个基点的概率为39.9%,累计降息50个基点的概率为 55.1%。 美银警告:通胀持续超目标叠加关税上调 美联储9月降息理由不足 8月12日,人民币兑美元中间价报7.1418,下调13点。 美联储9月降息的概率为85.9% 来源:新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱:news_center@staff.hexun.com 美国在最新研报指出,美联储应克制在9月政策会议上降息的冲动,近期经济数据并不支持过早启动宽 松周期。该行强调,支持降息的决策者低估了劳动力供应冲击的影响以及通胀的顽固性——当前通胀率 仍高于美联储2%的目标水平。报告警告称,最新关税上调可能对物价造成"更剧烈且更持久的冲 击"。"若在9月降息,可能面临通胀尚未见顶就开启宽松周期的风险,"美银分析团队写道,并维持 其"今年不 ...
美国6月进口量大幅下滑 远超预期
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-08-08 19:30
Core Insights - The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported a significant decline in U.S. imports, with a year-over-year decrease of 8.4% in June, exceeding expectations due to tariff increases implemented by the Trump administration [1] - Effective from August 7, several tariffs have been enacted, with some product tax rates reaching as high as 50% [1] - NRF forecasts a 5.6% decline in total imports for the year 2025 compared to the previous year [1] - NRF Vice President Gold expressed concerns that tariffs are driving up prices and will lead to a reduction in the variety of goods available, urging for trade agreements to lower tariffs [1]
印度纺织服装业对美大幅上调关税表示强烈担忧
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-08 13:21
Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. tariff increase on Indian goods, particularly a 25% additional tariff on textiles and apparel, is expected to significantly impact India's export competitiveness, especially in the labor-intensive textile sector [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Indian Textile and Apparel Industry - The U.S. is the largest market for Indian textiles and apparel, with these products being a major export category for India [1]. - The textile and apparel sector is projected to be one of the most affected industries due to the increased tariffs, with potential export declines of $2.5 to $3 billion [1][2]. - Indian exporters are facing difficulties due to the high tariffs, which could lead to a loss of competitive advantage in the U.S. market [1]. Group 2: Responses from Industry Leaders - Some companies are experiencing order cancellations and are attempting to expedite shipments before the full 50% tariff is implemented [2]. - Companies are considering relocating production to countries like Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Guatemala to mitigate tariff impacts [1]. - Industry leaders are calling for direct financial support from the Indian government to help small and medium-sized enterprises survive the adverse effects of the tariffs [2].