Report Title - Palm Oil: Temporary Support in the Short Term, Beware of a Second Dip; Soybean Oil: Rebound in US Soybeans, Monitor the Results of China-US Negotiations [1] Report Core View - Palm oil has obtained temporary support in the short term, but there is a risk of a second decline; soybean oil has rebounded due to the rise of US soybeans, and the results of China-US negotiations need to be focused on [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Key Points by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract during the day session was 8,842 yuan/ton, down 1.29%, and at night session it was 8,826 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the soybean oil main contract during the day session was 8,132 yuan/ton, down 0.61%, and at night session it was 8,146 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract during the day session was 9,525 yuan/ton, down 2.11%, and at night session it was 9,524 yuan/ton, down 0.01%. The closing price of the Malaysian palm oil main contract during the day session was 4,252 ringgit/ton, down 1.46%, and at night session it was 4,286 ringgit/ton, up 0.80%. The closing price of the CBOT soybean oil main contract was 50.11 cents/pound, down 0.30% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the palm oil main contract was 727,306 lots, an increase of 195,613 lots, and the open interest was 388,487 lots, an increase of 20,397 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main contract was 438,857 lots, an increase of 181,788 lots, and the open interest was 493,147 lots, an increase of 4,050 lots. The trading volume of the rapeseed oil main contract was 356,588 lots, an increase of 219,971 lots, and the open interest was 233,065 lots, a decrease of 7,182 lots [2] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth-grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil (continuous contract) was 1,075 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was -92 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 318 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 375 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 683 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 772 yuan/ton); the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was -710 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: -776 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of palm oil was -48 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: -22 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of soybean oil was 172 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 180 yuan/ton); the 1-5 price spread of rapeseed oil was 349 yuan/ton (previous two trading days: 387 yuan/ton) [2] Macro and Industry News - **Pakistan's Palm Oil Imports**: Pakistan is considering increasing the import quota of Indonesian palm oil. In September 2025, Pakistan's palm oil import value reached 481 million US dollars, a significant increase from 251 million US dollars in the same period last year. The import volume was 343,162 tons, a significant increase from 266,218 tons in the same period in 2024, indicating strong demand [3] - **USDA Export Sales Report Forecast**: As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year (2025/26) is expected to be 60-160 tons; the net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be 5-50 tons; the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be 0.5-2.5 tons [5] - **Brazil's Soybean Outlook**: The Netherlands Cooperative Bank expects that Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season will reach 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year. The soybean output is expected to be 177 million tons, a 3% increase. The export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. The soybean crushing volume is expected to reach 60 million tons, a record high (58 million tons in the 2024/25 season) [5] - **Soybean Planting in Brazil's Paraná State**: From October 21-27, 2025, due to good soil moisture and ideal planting conditions, soybean sowing in Paraná State continued to progress rapidly, with balanced progress in various regions. The crop growth is good, and the overall outlook for the 2025/26 season is positive [6] - **Brazil's Soybean Exports in October**: In the first four weeks of October 2025, Brazil exported 5,415,164.62 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 300,842.48 tons, a 41% increase compared to the average daily export volume of 214,090.30 tons in October last year. The total export volume in October last year was 4,709,986.65 tons [6] - **Argentina's Labor Dispute**: The Argentine Oilseed Workers' Union (SOEA) may resume strikes next week as they are still far from reaching a salary agreement with employers [6] - **Argentine Farmers' Soybean Sales**: As of the week ending October 22, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 1.115 million tons of 2024/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 22.3379 million tons. They also sold 38,100 tons of 2025/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 214,500 tons. The total soybean sales volume for all seasons in that week was 1.1927 million tons, with a cumulative sales volume of 63.1325 million tons. The cumulative registered export sales volume of 2024/25 season soybeans was 4.818 million tons, and that of 2025/26 season soybeans was 0 tons [7] - **Paraguay's Soybean Production Forecast**: Paraguay's soybean output in the 2025/26 season is initially estimated to be 10.8 million tons (estimated range: 8.7-12.6 million tons), a 5.8% increase from the previous year, mainly due to the expected increase in yield per hectare (2.91 tons per hectare, a 6.9% increase from the previous year). Paraguayan farmers are expected to plant 3.71 million hectares of soybeans, a slight decrease of nearly 1% from the previous year and lower than the USDA's forecast of 3.8 million hectares [8] - **India's Soybean and Soybean Meal Situation**: The Indian Soybean Processors' Association (SOPA) expects the soybean carry-over stock in the 2025/26 season (starting from October) to be 466,000 tons, a 47% decrease from 894,000 tons in the same period last year. The carry-over stock of soybean meal is expected to be 68,000 tons, a 49% decrease from 133,000 tons in the same period last year. The soybean meal output in the 2024/25 season is expected to decrease to 8.956 million tons, a 7.34% decrease from 9.666 million tons in the previous year. The export volume is expected to decrease by about 10% to 2.023 million tons, and the feed industry consumption is expected to decrease by about 6% to 6.2 million tons. The domestic food industry's procurement volume remains stable at 800,000 tons throughout the year. The Indian Agricultural Statistics Bureau predicts that the soybean output in the 2025 monsoon season will be 1.05 million tons, a 16% decrease from 1.2581 million tons in the previous year, mainly due to excessive rainfall and diseases [9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with -2, -1, 0, 1, 2 representing weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong respectively [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. Although there are signals of China potentially importing US soybeans, the increase in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums. The import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the higher - than - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high supply may lead to inventory accumulation, but this situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [5][7]. - For sugar, short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [12][13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait [15][17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, due to the high slaughter scale and expected future supply, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, there is a short - term rebound, but the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [19][20]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would make large - scale purchases of US soybeans. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly by 20 yuan, with the price in East China at 2,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was weak, but the pick - up was good. Last week, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week [2]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36% of the expected level, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a medium level. Frequent consultations on trade issues between China and the US are expected to be beneficial to US soybeans in the short term, but the international soybean supply is abundant, and the high premium in Brazil may decline, leading to a weakening import cost. Domestically, high soybean and soybean meal inventories mean that US soybean imports will slow down the de - stocking process and reduce the profit margin for oil extraction [2]. Strategy Views - In terms of import cost, the signal of China potentially importing US soybeans may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums, so the import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. Given the loose global soybean supply, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. Oil Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, 12.3% - 16.2% in the first 15 days, 3.4% in the first 20 days, and decreased by 0.4% in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, 2.71% in the first 20 days, and 1.63% in the first 25 days [5]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 7.34 million tons [5]. - Indonesia said that due to good weather, its palm oil production in 2025 may increase by 10%. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell. High palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently has suppressed the market. Indonesia's August production data still significantly exceeded previous years, weakening the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year. There are also rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Views - The higher - than - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high - supply and inventory - accumulation situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. Otherwise, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [7]. Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,660 - 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,600 - 5,640 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 5,790 - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 177 yuan/ton [9]. - On October 14, the General Administration of Customs announced regulations on the registration management of overseas production enterprises of imported food. The number of enterprises suspended from importing Thai syrups and pre - mixed powders has increased from 35 to 44, with only 16 being effective, and the scope of suspension has expanded from 1,702 items to 2,106 items [9]. Strategy Views - Short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, resulting in a large profit margin for out - of - quota imports. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13,565 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,265 yuan/ton [12]. - On October 27, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, and that of hand - picked cotton was 7.06 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of the week of October 24, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [12]. Strategy Views - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas showing narrow - range adjustments. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.94 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao dropped 0.11 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and farmers were actively selling. The market sales were average, and industry players generally followed the market. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with a few areas showing weak adjustments [15][16]. Strategy Views - The spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. The futures market has high positions, and it is expected to remain at the bottom, but the upward space is not optimistic, and the trend may be volatile. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [17]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to rise. The average price in Henan increased 0.23 yuan to 12.75 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan increased 0.35 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi increased 0.43 yuan to 12.18 yuan/kg. Some farmers in low - price areas may still have a tendency to hold back sales. Although pig prices continued to be strong, the downstream purchasing power was limited in some northern regions after the previous price increase. It is expected that prices will be stable today, with possible declines in some areas [19]. Strategy Views - Currently, the slaughter scale and the expected future supply are still high, and the decline in pig weight during the price drop was limited. In the medium term, with high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, multiple factors have led to a rebound, and the supporting factors still exist. The futures market with high positions is prone to fluctuations. It is expected that there will be a short - term rebound. In the medium term, it is advisable to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that both the US and China are keen to avoid escalating trade conflicts, recognizing that a prolonged standoff would be detrimental to both sides [1][10] - The meeting took place in Kuala Lumpur, a relatively neutral location, which contributed to a more relaxed atmosphere for discussions [1] - The delegation from China was led by He Lifeng, while the US team included Bessent and Greer, indicating the importance both sides placed on the talks [3] Group 2 - The agenda for the discussions included several contentious issues such as the US's "301 measures" against China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries, the extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls [3][5] - The atmosphere during the talks was reportedly better than expected, with both sides engaging in "candid, in-depth, and constructive exchanges" without resorting to blame [5][8] - The meeting was seen as a preparatory step for a potential meeting between the two countries' leaders, with the presence of President Trump in Kuala Lumpur adding significance to the discussions [5][7] Group 3 - Both sides are aware that continued confrontation would lead to mutual harm, and thus cooperation is viewed as the way forward, with the preliminary consensus reached during the talks providing reassurance to global markets [8][10] - The complexity of export controls remains a sticking point, with the US citing national security concerns while China perceives it as a form of technological blockade [5] - The outcome of the talks is still uncertain, as the implementation of any agreements will depend on the details and the willingness of both parties to compromise [8][10]

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, with a forecasted loss of 14 to 16 million tons if China does not resume purchases by mid-November [3][4] - From January to September 2023, the number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at Chinese ports decreased by 56%, dropping from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [3] - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports are projected to reach $24.58 billion, accounting for 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports, with over half of this amount, $12.64 billion, coming from China [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is actively seeking new buyers in Africa and Asia to mitigate the impact of reduced Chinese demand, as indicated by U.S. Treasury Secretary's communication regarding falling soybean prices [4] - Since May 2023, China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans, leading to a significant drop in export volumes, with only 5.9 million tons exported to China from January to July [3]

Core Insights - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has decreased by 56% from 72 to 32 vessels in the first nine months of this year, with no U.S. ships docking since July [1] - In contrast, an average of over 40 vessels from South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have been docking monthly since May, primarily transporting soybeans [1] - U.S. soybean exports to China reached nearly 27 million tons in 2024, but only 5.9 million tons were exported from January to July this year, as China ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since May [1] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, the potential loss of U.S. soybean orders to China could reach 14 to 16 million tons, equating to the loss of half the market [1]

Group 1 - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has decreased by 56% from January to September, dropping from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [2] - Since May, an average of over 40 grain transport ships from South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have been docking monthly at the terminal, with 90% of these shipments consisting of soybeans [2] - Soybeans are crucial for U.S. agricultural exports, with projected exports valued at $24.58 billion in 2024, accounting for 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports, and China purchasing over half of this amount, valued at $12.64 billion [2] Group 2 - In 2024, the U.S. is expected to export nearly 27 million tons of soybeans to China, but from January to July this year, exports were only 5.9 million tons, as China ceased purchases of U.S. soybeans since May [2] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, the potential loss of soybean orders could reach 14 to 16 million tons, equating to losing half of the market [2] - The U.S. is actively seeking new buyers in Africa and Asia, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra noting that soybean prices have further declined, giving China more leverage in negotiations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has significantly decreased, with a 56% drop from 72 ships to 32 ships in the first nine months of the year, primarily due to a complete halt in shipments since July [1] Group 1: U.S. Grain Exports - The decline in U.S. grain transport ships is attributed to a cessation of soybean purchases by China since May, which is critical as soybeans account for a significant portion of U.S. agricultural exports [1] - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports are projected to reach $24.58 billion, making it the top agricultural export and representing 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports [1] - China is a major buyer, purchasing over half of U.S. soybeans valued at $12.64 billion, with nearly 27 million tons exported to China in 2024 [1] Group 2: Impact of China's Purchasing Decisions - From January to July this year, U.S. soybean exports to China were only 5.9 million tons, indicating a significant drop in trade volume [1] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not resume purchases by mid-November, the U.S. could lose soybean orders to China amounting to 14 to 16 million tons [1] - The loss of the Chinese market equates to losing half of the U.S. soybean export market, highlighting the critical nature of this trade relationship [1]

中新网10月1日电据美国福布斯、《每日野兽》网站29日消息，联合国大会期间，美国财政部长贝森特 被拍到收到数则短信，内容为美国计划救助阿根廷，阿根廷却取消了谷物等商品的出口预扣税，并向中 国出售大量大豆，导致大豆价格继续下跌，且让中国对美"拥有更大筹码"。 图片来源：《每日野兽》网站截图 近期，因大豆等农产品出口受阻，美国农业界与特朗普政府间的关系愈发紧张。舆论指责政府不向本国 农民提供援助，却计划救助"抢占美国大豆市场的"阿根廷。 艾奥瓦州共和党籍参议员查克·格拉斯利称，"阿根廷抢走了美国大豆生产商最大的市场，为什么美国还 要帮助阿根廷纾困？我们应该用一切手段帮助受损的农业经济。"还有谷物交易商批评贝森特，"我们正 忙着救助阿根廷，而中国却已经囤积了20船阿根廷大豆。他们觉得你很蠢。" 美政府方面则表示，正在讨论将部分关税收入用于向农民提供援助，但尚未公布具体计划。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 报道称，尽管无法确定该短信发送者的身份，但在贝森特手机屏幕上能看到"BR"两个字母，与美国农 业部长布鲁克·罗林斯姓名首字母一样。 美国农业部长办公室和财政部尚未置评。 据此前报道，贝森特近期曾表示，阿根廷是"美国在拉 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to gradually rise due to positive fundamentals, with Dalian palm oil futures potentially following suit and starting an upward trend [1]. - Soybean oil is under pressure from seasonal harvest and Sino - US trade disputes, but the expected decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may provide long - term support [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to oversupply, while domestic sugar is likely to continue its weak performance [3][4]. Grains and Oilseeds - US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic oilseed meal is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating rhythm due to sufficient supply [6]. Cotton - Medium - term domestic cotton prices may face pressure due to weak demand and high hedging pressure [9]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with attention on new grain purchase rhythms and opening prices [10]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate within a bottom - range due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand [15]. Pigs - The pig market has a clear supply recovery pattern, with near - month contracts maintaining weak adjustments, and attention on 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8620 yuan/ton, palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.32% to 9270 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.29% to 10210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The three - oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 4.35% to 288 yuan/ton, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.98% to 206 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.00% to 505 yuan/ton [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of SR2601 decreased by 0.16% to 5452 yuan/ton, and the price of SR2605 decreased by 0.26% to 5432 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.51% to 5800 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.43% to 5820 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year to 1116.21 million tons, and national sugar sales increased by 12.87% year - on - year to 1000 million tons [3]. Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3980 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 10.53% to 252 yuan/ton, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 14.81% to 155 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal 2601 spread increased by 2.85% to 506 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of CF2605 decreased by 0.66% to 13812 yuan/ton, and the price of CF2601 decreased by 0.80% to 13610 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.34% to 15146 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.39% to 15224 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Warehouse inventory decreased by 20.6% month - on - month to 117.59 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 3.4% month - on - month to 86.21 million tons [9]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of C2511 decreased by 0.97% to 2147 yuan/ton, and the price of CS2511 decreased by 1.30% to 2431 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.88% to 2300 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn starch in Changchun remained unchanged at 2560 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spreads**: The C11 - 3 spread decreased by 200.00% to - 1 yuan/ton, and the CS11 - 3 spread decreased by 45.00% to - 29 yuan/ton [10]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the price of the JD11 contract decreased by 1.19% to 3075 yuan/500KG, and the price of the JD10 contract decreased by 1.42% to 2982 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95% to 2.85, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% to 3.20 yuan/feather [14]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of LH2511 decreased by 0.23% to 12795 yuan/ton, and the price of LH2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13345 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The sample slaughterhouse daily volume decreased by 0.24% to 153248, and the self - breeding profit per week decreased by 245.13% to - 24 yuan/head [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: None - **Bullish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: None - **Bearish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bearish (★☆☆)**: Pig, Egg [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].