Group 1 - The core issue is the significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, with a forecasted loss of 14 to 16 million tons if China does not resume purchases by mid-November [3][4] - From January to September 2023, the number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at Chinese ports decreased by 56%, dropping from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [3] - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports are projected to reach $24.58 billion, accounting for 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports, with over half of this amount, $12.64 billion, coming from China [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is actively seeking new buyers in Africa and Asia to mitigate the impact of reduced Chinese demand, as indicated by U.S. Treasury Secretary's communication regarding falling soybean prices [4] - Since May 2023, China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans, leading to a significant drop in export volumes, with only 5.9 million tons exported to China from January to July [3]

Core Insights - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has decreased by 56% from 72 to 32 vessels in the first nine months of this year, with no U.S. ships docking since July [1] - In contrast, an average of over 40 vessels from South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have been docking monthly since May, primarily transporting soybeans [1] - U.S. soybean exports to China reached nearly 27 million tons in 2024, but only 5.9 million tons were exported from January to July this year, as China ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since May [1] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, the potential loss of U.S. soybean orders to China could reach 14 to 16 million tons, equating to the loss of half the market [1]

Group 1 - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has decreased by 56% from January to September, dropping from 72 to 32 vessels, with no U.S. ships docking since July [2] - Since May, an average of over 40 grain transport ships from South American countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have been docking monthly at the terminal, with 90% of these shipments consisting of soybeans [2] - Soybeans are crucial for U.S. agricultural exports, with projected exports valued at $24.58 billion in 2024, accounting for 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports, and China purchasing over half of this amount, valued at $12.64 billion [2] Group 2 - In 2024, the U.S. is expected to export nearly 27 million tons of soybeans to China, but from January to July this year, exports were only 5.9 million tons, as China ceased purchases of U.S. soybeans since May [2] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not return to the U.S. market by mid-November, the potential loss of soybean orders could reach 14 to 16 million tons, equating to losing half of the market [2] - The U.S. is actively seeking new buyers in Africa and Asia, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra noting that soybean prices have further declined, giving China more leverage in negotiations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The number of U.S. grain transport ships docking at major Chinese grain terminals has significantly decreased, with a 56% drop from 72 ships to 32 ships in the first nine months of the year, primarily due to a complete halt in shipments since July [1] Group 1: U.S. Grain Exports - The decline in U.S. grain transport ships is attributed to a cessation of soybean purchases by China since May, which is critical as soybeans account for a significant portion of U.S. agricultural exports [1] - In 2024, U.S. soybean exports are projected to reach $24.58 billion, making it the top agricultural export and representing 14% of total U.S. agricultural exports [1] - China is a major buyer, purchasing over half of U.S. soybeans valued at $12.64 billion, with nearly 27 million tons exported to China in 2024 [1] Group 2: Impact of China's Purchasing Decisions - From January to July this year, U.S. soybean exports to China were only 5.9 million tons, indicating a significant drop in trade volume [1] - A market research firm predicts that if China does not resume purchases by mid-November, the U.S. could lose soybean orders to China amounting to 14 to 16 million tons [1] - The loss of the Chinese market equates to losing half of the U.S. soybean export market, highlighting the critical nature of this trade relationship [1]

中新网10月1日电据美国福布斯、《每日野兽》网站29日消息，联合国大会期间，美国财政部长贝森特 被拍到收到数则短信，内容为美国计划救助阿根廷，阿根廷却取消了谷物等商品的出口预扣税，并向中 国出售大量大豆，导致大豆价格继续下跌，且让中国对美"拥有更大筹码"。 图片来源：《每日野兽》网站截图 近期，因大豆等农产品出口受阻，美国农业界与特朗普政府间的关系愈发紧张。舆论指责政府不向本国 农民提供援助，却计划救助"抢占美国大豆市场的"阿根廷。 艾奥瓦州共和党籍参议员查克·格拉斯利称，"阿根廷抢走了美国大豆生产商最大的市场，为什么美国还 要帮助阿根廷纾困？我们应该用一切手段帮助受损的农业经济。"还有谷物交易商批评贝森特，"我们正 忙着救助阿根廷，而中国却已经囤积了20船阿根廷大豆。他们觉得你很蠢。" 美政府方面则表示，正在讨论将部分关税收入用于向农民提供援助，但尚未公布具体计划。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 报道称，尽管无法确定该短信发送者的身份，但在贝森特手机屏幕上能看到"BR"两个字母，与美国农 业部长布鲁克·罗林斯姓名首字母一样。 美国农业部长办公室和财政部尚未置评。 据此前报道，贝森特近期曾表示，阿根廷是"美国在拉 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil is expected to gradually rise due to positive fundamentals, with Dalian palm oil futures potentially following suit and starting an upward trend [1]. - Soybean oil is under pressure from seasonal harvest and Sino - US trade disputes, but the expected decrease in soybean imports in the fourth quarter may provide long - term support [1]. Sugar - International raw sugar is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern due to oversupply, while domestic sugar is likely to continue its weak performance [3][4]. Grains and Oilseeds - US soybeans are under pressure, and domestic oilseed meal is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating rhythm due to sufficient supply [6]. Cotton - Medium - term domestic cotton prices may face pressure due to weak demand and high hedging pressure [9]. Corn - The corn market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with attention on new grain purchase rhythms and opening prices [10]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to oscillate within a bottom - range due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand [15]. Pigs - The pig market has a clear supply recovery pattern, with near - month contracts maintaining weak adjustments, and attention on 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, soybean oil spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8620 yuan/ton, palm oil spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.32% to 9270 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.29% to 10210 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The three - oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 4.35% to 288 yuan/ton, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.98% to 206 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 1.00% to 505 yuan/ton [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of SR2601 decreased by 0.16% to 5452 yuan/ton, and the price of SR2605 decreased by 0.26% to 5432 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning decreased by 0.51% to 5800 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming decreased by 0.43% to 5820 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased by 12.03% year - on - year to 1116.21 million tons, and national sugar sales increased by 12.87% year - on - year to 1000 million tons [3]. Grains and Oilseeds - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybeans in Harbin remained unchanged at 3980 yuan/ton [6]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 10.53% to 252 yuan/ton, the rapeseed meal 01 - 05 spread increased by 14.81% to 155 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal 2601 spread increased by 2.85% to 506 yuan/ton [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of CF2605 decreased by 0.66% to 13812 yuan/ton, and the price of CF2601 decreased by 0.80% to 13610 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.34% to 15146 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.39% to 15224 yuan/ton [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Warehouse inventory decreased by 20.6% month - on - month to 117.59 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 3.4% month - on - month to 86.21 million tons [9]. Corn - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of C2511 decreased by 0.97% to 2147 yuan/ton, and the price of CS2511 decreased by 1.30% to 2431 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spot Market**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port increased by 0.88% to 2300 yuan/ton, and the spot price of corn starch in Changchun remained unchanged at 2560 yuan/ton [10]. - **Spreads**: The C11 - 3 spread decreased by 200.00% to - 1 yuan/ton, and the CS11 - 3 spread decreased by 45.00% to - 29 yuan/ton [10]. Eggs - **Prices**: On September 22, 2025, the price of the JD11 contract decreased by 1.19% to 3075 yuan/500KG, and the price of the JD10 contract decreased by 1.42% to 2982 yuan/500KG [14]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio increased by 7.95% to 2.85, and the breeding profit increased by 135.13% to 3.20 yuan/feather [14]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On September 22, 2025, the price of LH2511 decreased by 0.23% to 12795 yuan/ton, and the price of LH2601 decreased by 0.04% to 13345 yuan/ton [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 12700 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12850 yuan/ton [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The sample slaughterhouse daily volume decreased by 0.24% to 153248, and the self - breeding profit per week decreased by 245.13% to - 24 yuan/head [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: None - **Bullish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Corn, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil [1] - **Bearish (★★★)**: None - **Bearish (★★☆)**: None - **Slightly Bearish (★☆☆)**: Pig, Egg [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: None Core Views - The market is waiting for the performance of domestic soybean purchases later this month, and the overall supply of new soybean crops this year is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the soybean import trade [2]. - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans and other agricultural products, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9]. Summary by Category Soybean - The domestic soybean market is waiting for the purchase performance later this month, and the overall supply of new crops is expected to be good. The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. Short-term attention should be paid to the purchase of new soybeans and the performance of the import trade [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After the China-US call did not mention agricultural product trade, the US soybean fell, and the domestic soybean futures continued to rise. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a big problem, and the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the domestic soybean meal futures [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The content of the China-US call did not involve soybeans, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the US soybean futures price is under pressure. The spot market of soybean oil shows oversupply and high inventory. The long-term import loss of palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic inventory has increased month-on-month. In the long term, soybean and palm oil can be considered to buy on dips [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The international rapeseed market is in the peak harvest season, but due to the stagnation of China-Canada rapeseed trade, the domestic and foreign markets show a situation of strong domestic and weak foreign. The new season supply is expected to impact the domestic rapeseed futures price. The demand for rapeseed meal is suppressed, and the demand for vegetable oil is expected to pick up in the fourth quarter. The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is expected to rise in the short term [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fell, showing investors' concerns about the future market. The new season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the opening price has declined. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7]. Pig - This week, attention should be paid to the demand increment of the double festival stocking at the end of the month. The spot price of pigs is continuously low, and the second fattening pigs are actively sold. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork purchase and storage, but the quantity is still limited. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is relatively large, and the futures price is bearish [8]. Egg - Since the peak season in September, the spot price of eggs has rebounded and reached a phased high last Wednesday. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will return to a weak state. The futures price of eggs fell on Monday. The industry is facing the problem of high inventory, and the far-month contracts can be considered to be long [9].

Core Insights - The agricultural trade cooperation between Cambodia and China is thriving, with an expanding list of Cambodian fruits exported to China, including the recent addition of fresh durians [7] - The Cambodian coconut industry is revitalizing, with farmers returning to manage their orchards in anticipation of a coconut export agreement with China [8] - The Cambodian government is implementing measures to enhance the quality and transparency of agricultural products, including a QR code system for origin identification [11] Group 1: Agricultural Trade Expansion - Cambodia's agricultural exports to China have seen significant growth, with a reported export value exceeding $2.4 billion from January to July 2025, marking a 7.5% increase year-on-year [11] - The first quarter of 2023 saw China import agricultural products worth 980 million yuan from Cambodia, reflecting a 12.2% increase and accounting for over a quarter of total bilateral trade [11] - The approval of new agricultural products for export to China, including coconuts and edible bird's nests, signifies a shift towards higher quality standards in Cambodian agriculture [12] Group 2: Coconut Industry Revitalization - In 2023, Cambodia's coconut production exceeded 250,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [8] - The introduction of a coconut export agreement with China has led to increased local investment and revitalization of previously neglected coconut farms [8][9] - Local farmers are benefiting from higher purchase prices, with companies offering more than double the roadside retail price for coconuts [8] Group 3: Quality Improvement Initiatives - The Cambodian Ministry of Agriculture plans to establish a QR code system to enhance product transparency, covering planting locations, processing methods, and quality standards [11] - The Cambodian government is encouraging enterprises to apply for export qualifications, particularly in the edible bird's nest sector, which has seen significant growth with over 5,000 nests built nationwide [11][12] - The Cambodian agricultural sector is moving towards standardization and improved training mechanisms to increase the added value of agricultural products [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the international oil and fat market declined significantly, with domestic oils following suit. The bullish sentiment in the oil market cooled, and bulls left the market. In the protein meal market, CBOT soybeans oscillated at a high level, while the domestic continuous meal market weakened. The supply concerns for soybean meal in the long - term have slightly eased [6][72]. - Looking forward to the future, in the protein meal market, the US soybean production area faces low - temperature and drought conditions, and the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high with slow inventory reduction. In the oil market, international crude oil drags down US soybean oil, and palm oil is under pressure. The domestic oil market may further decline in the short term [137]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans oscillated at a high level this week. After a decline on Monday, they oscillated narrowly in the following days. The good - rate of US soybeans continued to rise, increasing the expectation of a bumper harvest and pressuring the market. The new - year export sales of US soybeans reached a new high, but the absence of Chinese buyers restricted the increase. The domestic continuous meal market weakened, with the opening rate of oil mills slightly increasing and soybean meal inventory rising steadily. Under the pressure of oil mills to urge提货 at the end of the month, the trading was weak, and bulls left the market [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 382,806 tons. The total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season has reached 96.6% of the revised annual export target, with a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [11]. 3.1.3 North American Market - US Soybean Planting Progress - As of August 24, 2025, the average good - rate of US soybeans in 18 states was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4% [22]. 3.1.4 North American Weather - In the Midwest, sporadic heavy rains maintained local excessive soil moisture, while dry weather in many other areas led to a decline in surface soil moisture. In the west, hot and dry weather was conducive to crop maturity. In the prairie region, precipitation was limited, and the temperature varied widely [26][32]. 3.1.5 Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - The low - temperature weather in the Midwest will continue until the end of August and early September. A bulk carrier rented by Bunge is expected to transport Argentine soybean meal to China. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts have been adjusted. China needs to purchase a large amount of soybeans by the end of this year, but it faces challenges. The soybean processing margins in South America have declined, and the processing volume forecasts in Argentina have been adjusted [35][36][38]. 3.1.6 Soybean - Port Inventory and Pressing Profit - This week, the domestic spot and futures pressing profits declined. As of the end of this week, the inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 6.8244 million tons, and it is expected to be 5.04 million tons by the end of next week [47]. 3.1.7 Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans for November shipment is 4,665 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans is 4,058 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined this week [50]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal - Soybean Operating Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 34th week (August 23), the average operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 64.78%, an increase of 0.24% from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.058 million tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from last week [55]. 3.1.9 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 34th week was 1.8992 million tons, slightly higher than that of last week [59]. 3.1.10 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Operating Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the 34th week, the operating rate of domestic major imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 11.01%, a decrease of 0.98% from last week. The pressing volume of imported rapeseed was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from last week [65]. 3.2 Fats and Oils Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, international oils declined significantly. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil fell from last week's highs. The EPA's approval of small refineries' exemption applications for bio - fuel blending and the decline of international crude oil led to the decline of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil was also dragged down, and domestic oils followed the international market down [72]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - From August 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil exports increased year - on - year. Brazil has adjusted the bio - diesel blending ratio, and the demand for bio - diesel has changed. Malaysia is seeking to exempt palm kernel oil from the SST tax, and Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [75][76][77]. 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Weather - Typhoon Kajiki brought abundant rainfall to the Philippines and surrounding areas, and Thailand also had monsoon rainfall. The temperature was close to normal [83]. 3.2.4 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - The prices of the three major vegetable oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) declined this week, with the overall trend of rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price difference rebounded from a low level [110]. 3.2.5 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 34th week, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5924 million tons, a decrease of 23,500 tons from last week. The inventory of soybean oil increased, while that of palm oil and rapeseed oil decreased [94]. 3.2.6 Oil Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends. The soybean - palm oil price difference rebounded slightly, and the oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds also rebounded slightly [110][114]. 3.2.7 Arbitrage Relationships - The oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds rebounded slightly this week. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated narrowly. The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal continued to decline, the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil rebounded slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread of palm oil declined slightly [114][120][123]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Technical Analysis - For the main contracts, the short - term indicators of soybean meal are bearish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of rapeseed meal are bearish, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of soybean oil are bearish, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term indicators of palm oil are entangled, and the medium - and long - term indicators are bullish. The short - term indicators of rapeseed oil are entangled, the medium - term indicators are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [136]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the protein meal market, the US soybean production area faces low - temperature and drought, and the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high. In the oil market, international crude oil drags down US soybean oil, and palm oil is under pressure. The domestic oil market may further decline in the short term [137].

金十数据7月30日讯，乌克兰大使馆表示，埃及和乌克兰已同意采取具体措施，促进谷物和葵花籽油等 关键农产品的贸易。乌克兰正寻求加深与其在中东和北非最大贸易伙伴的关系。乌克兰大使馆周三发表 的一份声明没有详细说明这些步骤，也没有提供时间表。 乌克兰和埃及同意采取措施促进谷物和葵花籽油贸易 ...